Are Americans really more pro-life? The truth is that it is the wrong question. The question of whether or not someone identifies as pro-life or pro-choice has as much to do with the terms themselves that it does with their views on abortion.
A recent Gallup poll reported that 51% of those surveyed identified as pro-life, while 42% identified as pro-choice. For the first time since Gallup began polling on the subject in 1995 a majority of Americans self identified as pro-life. However, when you look at the public's specific views on the legality of abortion it has remained relatively constant over the last thirty-five years. Since 1975 at least 48% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, and at least 22% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal under all circumstances. While those surveyed who believe that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances has never had more than 22% and as low as 12%. Currently 53% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal in certain circumstances and 22% believe it should be legal in all circumstances.
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation asked if respondents would want the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v Wade decision, and 68% of those surveyed did not want the decision overturned. Public opinion in support of Roe v Wade has remained constant, if not increasing, over the last twenty years. This is perhaps a much more truthful depiction of the public's overall opinion on abortion, there is a difference between a people self identifying as pro-life or pro-choice and their propensity to support legal abortion. Nate Silver of 538 notes "the terms 'pro-choice' and 'pro-life' are at least somewhat fungible; years of Democrats saying things like 'I am personally opposed to abortion, but I don't think I have a right to impose my few on the rest of society'."
Jason Embry of the Statesman pointed this out to me and he's right that we'll probably see more dribs and drabs of this poll as it leaks its way out. Be sure to read the whole thing but here are some select pieces.
By Hill Research Consultants, a GOP polling firm based in The Woodlands. The statewide poll of 636 active Texas voters was conducted in mid-November.
And, surprisingly, way down on the list is the Trans Texas Corridor at 1 percent.
That means 45% of respondents put the economy and jobs as the top issues. I wonder where Voter ID laws ranked, lol.
Overall job approval of Republicans in state government:
45% Approve
50% Disapprove
Have Republicans performed well enough to deserve re-election?
32% GOP deserves re-election
54% Give Democrats a chance
I think that's it is real telling that now it is in the hands of Democrats to see if they can perform, though that is still largely tempered by the fact that Democrats don't control anything in Texas government. So if stuff "fails" again this session, it's still going to be viewed as being at then hands of the GOP.
The poll divides the Texas electorate into the following segments:
Wow, 31% on the Republican side to 44% on the Democratic side. That is quite the shift. We don't know how that is really defined, but it matches the shift in self described Party ID that's happening in Texas as well.
Be sure to read the rest of the details here. There are some favorable/unfavorable numbers for Ann Richards, LBJ, and Chuck Norris of all people.
"The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking." I am not exactly sure what Republican pollster Bill McInturff means by impressive strides. According to the Gallup Daily tracking poll since October 20th Senator Obama has not dropped below 50% in the poll and Senator McCain has not risen above 43%.
This morning on MSNBC McInturff pushed the idea that the majority of undecided voters, which is between four and eight percent, will break for McCain.
I still think the pollers are missing the youth vote and moderate republican who are so pissed off over the issue of what bushism has created that the will finally flip back to their democratic roots. Remember that in this a lot of so called republican were at one time strong democrats who went with the flow of civil rights... might it be time for many to fall back to there families true roots?
My son is in his third year at Baylor of all places and tells me that everyone he know off has had it with bushism and there hateful ways, wants to turn the page and voting to a person for Obama. If that the thinking in Baylor what's it like at UT Austin?
The full Research 2000 Poll on the U.S. Senate race is now posted here. A couple of interesting points to consider in the post below. Read through the end to find out why this really shows a 4 point race, and how it could be tied.
First, the top lines again.
Research 2000, Oct 14-15, 600 LV, MoE 4%
John Cornyn (R): 50%
Rick Noriega (D): 44%
Yvonne Schick (L): 2%
Undecided: 4%
From this point forward, I'll put the most recent Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago in (parenthesis) as the last similar Research 2000 poll was from May. Granted, we are not comparing the same polling company, but it's more accurate in this case to compare one from two weeks ago than five months ago.
John Cornyn Fav/Unfavorables
Favorable: 52% (57)
Unfavorable 38% (30)
Cornyn's favorable ratings are dropping from +27 to +14 with less than a week of Noriega TV in the mix and more weeks of Cornyn's cows.
Rick Noriega Fav/Unfavorables
Favorable: 47% (46)
Unfavorable 37% (36)
And now the breakouts with important points bolded.
Noriega is essentially tied among women voters and only down 10 points among men (compared to 20 points down for Obama in the same poll!). Both sides are holding their bases and Independents are 47-46! Noriega is winning the 18-29 demo, and is only down four among the oldest voters, an interesting pattern you don't usually see.
But here is the overlooked stunner. 15% of African Americans are actually in the undecided pool. Assuming (and I think it is a valid assumption) they come home and vote Democratic, that's another 1.95% of the vote that can be added to Noriega which would mean 50-46.
Given that African Americans make up 13% of the sample in this poll (which is slightly above their composition of the state but because of Obama they are expected to turnout at higher rates), this is a wildcard. Hispanics are 19% of the sample of the poll, even though they make up a larger share of the Texas population.
So for every 1% more of the electorate African-Americans make in Texas, Noriega's total increases by a point. For every 1% more of the electorate Hispanics make of the vote, Rick picks up 2/3rd of a point. If the Black and Brown vote both bump up by just 2% points each, and you allocate the undecideds in the same ratios, you are looking at Sen. Rick Noriega even without converting any current Cornyn voters.
Burnt Orange Report has seen preliminary results of a statewide poll of the Texas U.S. Senate race conducted by a national organization that was put into the field a few days ago. While we are not at liberty to release more details of the nature and crosstabs of this poll, we are able to share the key head-to-head number which shows Rick Noriega closing the gap compared to the most recent Rasmussen poll conducted two weeks prior which had shown a 50-43 race.
John Cornyn (R): 50%
Rick Noriega (D): 44%
Yvonne Schick (L): 2%
Undecided: 4%
As an additional tease as we can't reveal specific numbers at this time, Noriega's favorable/unfavorable margin is unchanged as compared to Rasmussen's polling while Cornyn's has collapsed from a net +27 point favorable spread to just +14 favorable spread with his unfavorable numbers exceeding Noriega's.
This information, paired with very interesting results among Independents, youth, and senior voters verifies the ineffectiveness of Cornyn's month-long advertising campaign which has given Noriega an opening.
We expect the full poll to be made available within the next 48 hours.
UPDATE: Full internals and crosstabs are now available here.
Finally. After nearly a month and a half, we have a new poll from Rasmussen in the Texas Senate race.
Remember, a lot has changed since mid-August. Texas has seen Hurricane Ike, 2 weeks of Cornyn on TV, and a financial meltdown that will affect even the rather resilient Texas economy. All that, and the Senate race is the closest it has been since May, with Cornyn 50%, and Noriega up to 43%. See the chart below.
If you look at the margins between Cornyn and Noriega, here is how they have tracked since Rasmusen began tracking the race.
Date
John Cornyn (R)
Rick Noriega (D)
Undecided
Margin
May 1
47%
43%
8%
-4
June 2
52%
35%
7%
-17
June 25
48%
35%
9%
-13
July 30
47%
37%
8%
-10
August 21
48%
37%
9%
-11
September 29
50%
43%
7%
-7
The undecided pool isn't that high and hasn't really changed. And the ebb and flow of the Democratic vote compared to the Presidential race seems to be tracking in a similar manner with the summer vote being lower than the spring and fall. For the first time in Rasmussen's polling since May, Noriega is out performing Obama's margin.
Date
John McCain (R)
Barack Obama (D)
Margin
May 1
48%
43%
-5
June 2
52%
39%
-13
June 25
48%
39%
-9
July 30
50%
41%
-9
August 21
50%
41%
-9
September 29
52%
43%
-9
This is welcome news for a Senate campaign that has essentially become a sleeper race in the national picture for the last few months. Looks like it's time to wake up to a single digit race again.
This is a long post with a lot of info below the fold.
This poll was produced by the Government Department and the Texas Politics project at the University of Texas at Austin. For more information, contact Dr. Daron Shaw (dshaw@austin.utexas.edu) or Dr. James Henson (j.henson@austin.utexas.edu).
Below is a sampling of information from the full poll.
First, the headline grabbing information.
Q19. If the 2008 general election were held today,
for whom would you vote for president?
43% Republican John McCain
33% Democrat Barack Obama
5% Libertarian Bob Barr
2% Independent Ralph Nader
Q20. If the 2008 general election were held today,
for whom would you vote for U.S. Senator?
44% Republican John Cornyn
31% Democrat Rick Noriega
I'm a little disappointed that in the Senate race, they did not poll Libertarian candidate Yvonne Schick who is on the ballot. As you can tell by this graph of the Presidential matchup, the 5% going to Libertarian Bob Barr is nearly universally coming out of the Republican column. That raises the question of course of whether Rick Noriega might then be outperforming Obama.
In any case, the real issue it the huge pool of undecided voters and the face that both of the Republicans are dangerously close to what most consider the Democratic base marker of 43% for this election.
Q5. Thinking about the country, do you think
things are moving in the right direction
or are we off on the wrong track?
67% Wrong track.
20% Right direction.
13% Don't know/Refused/NA.
I'm not sure how people disconnect their political choices from the current mismanagement of the country that is a result of 7 years of Bush and 6 years of GOP total control are clearly to blame?
Q6. What do you think is the most important
issue facing the country today? [OPEN-ENDED]
41% Economy
17% Gas Prices/Oil Dependence/Energy
8% War in Iraq
7% Immigration
Q7. What do you think is the most important
issue facing the state of Texas today? [OPENENDED]
25% Economy
23% Immigration/Border Security
16% Gas Prices/Oil Dependence/Energy
5% Health Care
Interesting that in both cases the Economy the leading issue (being very pronounces in the national opinion) with Immigration moving ahead of gas/energy in Texas. The full poll has the rest of the range of issues.
Q8. Compared to a year ago, do you think the country is
better off, worse off, or about the same
economically?
81% Worse off.
15% About the same.
2% Better off.
2% Don't know/Refused/NA.
Q9. What about you? Compared to a year ago,
would you say that you are better off, worse off,
or about the same economically?
48% Worse off.
34% About the same.
17% Better off.
1% Don't know/Refused/NA.
Q10. Looking ahead to the future, do you think
your children will be better off than you are,
worse off, or about the same economically?
33% Better off.
28% Worse off.
14% About the same.
26% Don't know/Refused/NA.
Wow, people really feel their personal situations suck and the usually optimistic view of the future is stunningly depressed.
For the next section, I've condensed the "temperature" reading question for the following individuals into an easier to compare format. 100=awesome, 0=awful
60.8 Kay Bailey Hutchison
57.5 John Cornyn
53.8 John McCain
52.9 Barack Obama
52.9 David Dewhurst
51.9 Rick Perry
44.9 Tom Craddick
44.9 George W. Bush
Of course, KBH tops the list, though I'm surprise Cornyn is as high s he is as well. But looks like people clearly have a difference opinion and don't like Bush and Craddick's brand of Republican politics.
For the next set, I've combined data for straight up job approval/disapproval numbers for the following.
Gov. Rick Perry
44% Approve
33% Disapprove
22% No Opinion
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst
26% Approve
13% Disapprove
60% No Opinion
Speaker Tom Craddick
17% Approve
20% Disapprove
63% No Opinion
"Your State Legislators Are Doing in Austin"
31% Approve
38% Disapprove
31% No Opinion
That Texans really don't have any idea of their elected officials is apparent, but of those who do have a clue, Craddick and the Republican controlled House and Senate do not get favorable marks. While Perry's are a net plus, they are not impressive by any means for the man who wants to run again in 2010.
Those opinions can be summed up in the next question which shows that 49% of Texans want Democrats to start controlling some part of state government.
The latest NY Times/CBS polls are available in detail for your viewing pleasure. The information is interesting in that the racial divides do exist for Barack Obama. However in a question regarding who would win regardless of how the person voted, Obama wins 53-30 with 13 in the Don't Know category. Economy is the #1 issue with 38%, Energy is #2 with 14% and the War is #3 with 10%.
Regarding other choices 47% would prefer other choices than Obama or McCain. People feel the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions when dealing with the issues. The poll goes into a lot of other issues so I'll let you sift through the information and make your own conclusions. It's telling on some interesting race relations questions.
The Eric Roberson campaign commissioned a poll of CD32. As with earlier polls of CD7 and CD10, the population sampled was prior voters, and results were weighted to match historical turnout. These polls are designed to be apples-to-apples comparisons with earlier elections, looking at how much the district has shifted rather than projecting new turnout patterns. As with the other Congressional polls, I first asked about McCain v Obama, then Cornyn v Noriega and then the Congressional matchup. While there was minor variation in the responses, margins were identical in all three races.
581 likely voters polled 6/4/2008, margin of error 4.1%
Sessions (R) 52%
Roberson (D) 43%
Third party/no vote 3%
Undecided 1%
Excluding third party/no vote
Sessions (R) 54%
Roberson (D) 45%
Undecided 1%
--
Other recent Texas polls for comparison
CD10, June 2 - McCaul 52% - Doherty 46%
CD7, April 8 - Culberson 57% - Skelly 39%
I find a nine point lead for Pete Sessions and the other Republicans, down from a fifteen point margin in the 2006 election. Three percent said they would vote third party or not vote, in line with the 2.3% that a Libertarian candidate received in 2006. Only one percent said they were undecided in the Congressional race, while the Presidential and Senate races had about 4% undecided.
Questions were posed in this format:
In the 32nd District Congressional race, the candidates are Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Eric Roberson
If you would vote for Republican Pete Sessions, press 1
If you would vote for Democrat Eric Roberson, press 2
If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 3
If you are undecided, press 4
The order of candidate names and choices is randomized. As of last week, I have changed my format to add the Libertarian candidate's name, but this poll was conducted prior to that change.
Additional questions requested by the Roberson campaign were asked after the three matchup questions so that there would be no bias. Sessions was viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 39%, with the remainder neutral. Roberson's name recognition was low, even among those who supported him. Top issue was the Economy, followed by the War.
Illegal Immigration, Change and Healthcare also received support at lower levels.
