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Barack Obama's strong performance on Super Tuesday all but guarantees that Texas primary voters will play a key role, maybe the key role, in selecting the Democratic nominee for president of the United States.
Few saw this coming. Ever since efforts failed to move up the Texas primary, we thought we were sidelined. Then Michigan and Florida broke the rules, taking two big-state delegate counts off the table. Then Obama's captivating campaign of hope interrupted a Clinton coronation.
Until the last few days, most old Texas pols, and new pols for that matter, hadn't given much thought to the possibility of a historic Texas presidential primary. Now, here it comes, and early voting begins in 13 days.
To put this in perspective, Texas voters have never played this role in a Democratic primary. Good luck on your targeting, and good luck exit pollsters. It's a first-of-its-kind election in more ways that one. The universe of likely voters just got much, much larger.
Who will win Texas? Here are some things to think about.
Hispanic voters. Hillary won big among Hispanics in California. I believe this advantage has more to do with voter familiarity with Clinton than any black/brown friction. Exploiting a perceived antipathy between blacks and browns is a losers game for Democrats. No matter what side anyone is on, we need to vigorously contest the narrative of black/brown friction. And we're about to hear a lot about it, fueled by Clinton insiders and Republicans as well, from national and state pundits.
Women voters. Clinton has been winning the votes of older white women. But when Hillary hit the national stage in the early 90s, Ann Richards was the hero of Texas women. Hillary was never the figurehead here she was in some other places. The Clintons have a few friends in Texas, but they never really played on this field, and consequently don't have the deep leverage they've had elsewhere.
Fairly or not, there's a perception among Democratic opinion leaders that while a Clinton candidacy in 2008 will have minimum down-ballot impact, a a Clinton presidency will set Dems back. 2010 is a target year for the Texas Democratic comeback. Many fear the 2010 presidential midterm election will not go our way if voters have suffered through two more years of right wing Clinton bashing. I'm noting only the perception, not the reality. The perception will play a role in the March 4 outcome.
I don't think endorsements mean that much, and I really don't think a Houston mayor in machine-less Houston can make much of a difference, but I am curious about what Houston Mayor Bill White will do. White, a Clinton family friend and political appointee of Bill's, wants to run statewide in 2010. He has to be considering the impact of all this on his chances.
Finally, has anyone asked the Secretary of State if Texas can handle the massive turnout increase we are about to see?
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