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Races for Speaker of the Texas House ostensibly are a "members only" affair. Ask a legislator what's happening and you'll get stiff-armed immediately. You'll get a polite brush off that "It's an internal deal."
However, it's the most important vote that a member ever casts and sets in motion how everything else is going to play out throughout the session and beyond.
And while a Member might claim this is a discussion among 150 legislators, the weapon that's used by the candidates or their team members has everything to do with insinuations about what lobbyists and special interests will be there for them in the next election and whether you'll get a primary opponent in the next cycle. We're already hearing the Craddick folks and the media talking about which Republican members will draw Leninger/Perry/Lobby fueled opponents if they vote for McCall but Craddick actually pulls it out.
But for the readers of this blog, the real red meat of the Speaker's race politics is what happens to the Democrats who don't stick with the Democratic Caucus on this one.
Thankfully, the Craddick Demo number is fast dwindling, but there seems to be some who'll stick with Craddick to the end.
Most are minority members who are in safe November General election districts. If they are going to be beat, it would have to be in a primary. The few Anglo Craddick supporters are in Republican leaning districts who think they're popular enough to win a primary challenge and will, by default, get solid Democratic support in the fall against a Republican. (Chuck Hopson and Patrick Rose). The other two Anglo Demos on the list are in "minority majority" or high minority impact districts and are even on more precarious ground (Tracy King and Kevin Bailey).
Perhaps the one with the most to lose career-wise is Patrick Rose. Although he's in a Republican leaning district and has to be moderate in his votes in the District, you can smell his ambition for statewide office in the future. To abandon the Democrats on this vote will probably be a fatal blow to his making it through a Democratic Primary for statewide office in the future. Primaries are notoriously progressive and this kind of back stab of the Party will be remembered.
One source tells BOR that Democratic leaders and activists have already began the discussions for opponents to Robert Puente and Ruth Jones McClendon in San Antonio, Sylvester Turner and Kevin Bailey in Houston, and Norma Chavez in El Paso.
Travis County politicos are burning up the holiday Party political gossip mill. They're all talking about perhaps the most endangered of the Craddick D's: Dawnna Dukes of HD 46 in Austin. What she gets for toading for Craddick hasn't been figured out. It's got most Travis County Democrats scratching their heads. Besides, Dukes has gained a reputation in recent years of being AWOL from representing her district. Representing a Travis County district is almost a full time job, and Dukes is rarely seen or heard from in political circles. Activists expect the Dems in Travis County's delegation to be not only at the Capitol, but at every neighborhood cookout and PTA meeting, and especially at Democratic events. Dukes hasn't been seen in a while. (And don't even bring up the anger from her French vacation that left the Democrats one vote short on a critical public education vote during the special session!)
HD 46 is what has been thought of as the traditional "African American" district in Austin. However this isn't like the other minority districts in Texas. African Americans aren't even a majority in the district. In fact the district is only voting age population of 26.1% African American, 32.6 % Anglo, and 37.9% Hispanic. The winner in a primary race here depends on progressive/liberal voters more so than the usual ethnic alliances.
Moreover, Dukes hasn't had a serious challenger in several cycles. Her worst enemy in pure political terms is the swing in voter turnout in the district. In 2006, the primary vote was only 2311 in the rep race. In 2004, turnout was 9662. The difference? A presidential primary. (District 46 contains a whole lot of young folks, UT students, and typical Austin slackers who turn out only for the presidential type races.) And you can bet that in 2008 with a heated prez race, the turnout in the campus and liberal precincts will soar. And that's the problem for Dukes. None of those "new" voters will have heard of her, and what they'll hear from a challenger will be that she's a Republican sell-out. These energized voters will vote against anything or anyone remotely "establishment" at the Lege.
And lastly, Dukes has no organization in Austin. Like most incumbents in safe liberal districts, she's not built any campaign apparatus. She has relied on the liberal political consultants that can influence the outcome of these races before filing day ink is dry. Rumors on the street are that those movers and shakers are doing the most talking about finding the opponent for her if she flubs this one. And even if they don't get out front for an opponent, none will want to take on the job of trying to sell that product. Dukes will be on her own.
And on top of it all for Dukes, a PAC has already been filed called "Too Close To Craddick PAC" whose purpose is to support challengers to Democrats who side with the Speaker. It's Austin based, and you can bet those behind it are looking locally before going statewide.
So watch the fallout. For the first time in history, the votes in a Speaker's race may be cast by members only, but those Democrats who piss on their constituents might have a rude and rank awakening in 2008.
That's the Cost of Corruption.
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