A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQRR) Poll confirms what people on the ground have been whispering. John Culberson is at risk of losing his job.
The new GQRP poll has Mike Skelly within 5 points of Culberson, and his message of change, energy independence, and ending business as usual in Washington is resonating with the district.
The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll has the race at 44% to 49% with a 4.9% margin of error. With 9 days left, momentum is clearly on Skelly's side.
On the heels of a Houston Chronicle-Zogby poll showing Michael Skelly closing in on John Culberson in the race for the Texas 7th Congressional District, the Skelly Campaign today released a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQRR) poll showing Skelly trailing Culberson by only 5 points, 44% - 49%, with 3% for the libertarian candidate and 4% undecided.
A Skelly victory would be a huge upset. In 2004, Culberson defeated John Martinez by 31 points. 2006 was only marginally better. Two years ago, Culberson beat Jim Henley by 21 points.
The district is trending Democrat, but a 26 point swing in 4 years is astounding. The reason appears to be the rapid erosion of the Republican brand and base.
The GQRR poll shows that Skelly is winning decisively (46%--40%) among independents, a key indicator of his broad based support. Additionally, the poll shows that with over half (56%) of the district citing the economy, jobs, and the financial crisis as their top concern in the upcoming election, Skelly maintains a 46%--42% advantage over Culberson among economically-conscious voters.
On the heels of Jack Abramoff's conviction and sentencing, Mike Skelly praises the federal judge's decision and criticized John Culberson for voting against the investigation that brought Abramoff to justice.
"Jack Abramoff was at the center of a culture of corruption that John Culberson enabled," said Skelly. "By voting against a Congressional investigation into Jack Abramoff, Culberson sent a very clear message: business as usual in Washington, no matter how crooked, is fine by him."
"John Culberson is a classic DC insider, the kind of politician who would stand with a corrupt lobbyist instead of with the taxpayers he was elected to represent," added Skelly.
In 2006, Culberson voted against an immediate investigation by the House Ethics Committee into the Jack Abramoff scandal.
Just a reminder of what's at stake for this November.
Want to know what a well financed campaign looks like? Meet Michael Skelly.
To date, Skelly has released two other ads-- "On Top" and "Kids".
Today the Skelly campaign launched a new television ad, titled "Keeping Faith," which focuses on Skelly's experience balancing budgets as a businessman and reiterates a pledge he signed yesterday, refusing all pay raises until the budget is balanced.
The other two ads are stand out ads, but this one is the most powerful so far. While "Kids" introduced Skelly to the state and country, "Keeping Faith" shows a candidate committed to press the incumbent Republican and make his voting record a problem, not an asset.
John Culberson has voted consistently in favor of receiving a Congressional pay raise. He voted seven times in eight years in favor of an increased salary. In that same time period, the federal budget went from having a record surplus to a $400 billion deficit.
The ad subtly focuses on some very key issues this cycle were Skelly has a clear advantage-- renewable energy, a commitment to managing our fledgling economy, and an understanding of what voters want.
Up until this point, Culberson has stayed in Washington to play political games during the summer recess designed for members of Congress to go back to their district and hear from their constituents. Culberson has refused to listen to voters, and instead has boasted about trips to meet with his friend George Bush.
Skelly on the other hand is making the budget a moral issue. He is staring directly in the camera and taking a pledge to work toward a balanced budget (one of the least sexy issues).
It is an interesting strategy and in the times of economic woes, balancing the budget might be the winning policy in this tough race.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is using a full court press on the Republican Party this cycle.
A recent Roll Call article focuses on two races we have had our eyes on for a long time- Larry Joe Doherty vs. Mike McCaul and Mike Skelly vs. John Culberson.
Roll Call over simplifies to the two races saying:
Culberson's 7th district encompasses much of Houston's western suburbs and is among the most conservative in a state that remains a Republican stronghold. But Culberson's opponent, businessman Michael Skelly, has attempted to position himself as a conservative Democrat and has vowed to spend $1 million of his own money on the race. As of June 30, he had nearly doubled the incumbent in cash on hand.
McCaul's 10th district, stretching from greater Houston's solidly conservative Harris County in the east to the Austin region's Democratic-leaning Travis County in the west, has the potential to be politically problematic for Republicans.
The Republican Party and President Bush are incredibly unpopular (even in Texas), and both McCaul and Culberson like to highlight their close ties and friendships with this administration. The Republican's are losing control of the Texas House. They are losing more down ballot races than ever before. Their most vocal advocated tell voters their economic woes are all in their head.
Democrats on the other hand are better funded than they have been in nearly a decade. There is more passion and focus on the Democratic Party than there has been in years.
Maybe that is why "Republican operatives who follow Texas Congressional races concede that neither the 7th district nor the 10th will be the easy ride they've been for the Republicans since being redrawn in 2003 as part of the redistricting of Lone Star State House seats engineered by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas)."
While Julie Shutley, the spokes person for the National Republican Congressional Committee argues that McCain helps McCaul and Culberson, I am at a loss to figure out how. Barack Obama received more votes in the primary than John Kerry or Al Gore received in the 2004 or 2000 general election. We have more candidates running down ballot in both districts, which will encourage Independents and disenfranchised Republicans to vote for one or more Democrat and prevent them from voting straight ticket.
"Even in Texas, one of the reddest states in the country, people are fed up," DCCC spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said. "Combine this desire for change with the strong campaigns both Michael Skelly and Larry Joe Doherty are running, and it offers Democrats unique opportunities in Texas this year."
[...]
But Skelly's team believes a district whose economy relies heavily on the energy industry will respond favorably to a candidate with his background, and they predict that fiscal conservatives disappointed with Congress' record on spending and the deficit could help him win an unexpected victory. Skelly, on cable television with his second ad, is already courting voters; Culberson intends to wait until after Labor Day to launch his air war.
At the end of that sentence, read, "Skelly is already on TV because he has the money, support, and network to be able too... Culberson doesn't so he is forced to leave Skelly on TV by himself."
While CD-07 is decidedly moderate or leans conservative, the 10th district is one of the Tom DeLay fajita strip districts. It is a "classic gerrymander" district drawn up as a "majority Republican seat by cobbling together a collection of conservative-leaning rural counties and anchoring them on either side by portions of growing counties."
The district is less Republican today than it was yesterday and is probably the most rapidly trending seat in Texas.
Doherty's optimism is [anchored in] the increasing number of Democratic voters in Travis County, which is a liberal enclave in an otherwise sea of red, and the fact that McCaul's Democratic opponent in 2006 garnered 40 percent of the vote while being outspent by the incumbent $1.1 million to $65,000.
Doherty's strategy is to court moderate voters who are most interested in a change in Washington, D.C., while maximizing turnout in Travis County and working for a split in the rural counties. His campaign believes McCaul has not developed a close relationship with his constituents, and it plans to exploit that. McCaul's campaign vehemently denies that contention.
Again Roll Call gets it wrong. Travis County is not a island of blue in a sea of red anymore. Hays County, Williamson County and Bastrop County are all purple counties turning rapidly blue. People are fed up with Tom Craddick's pay to play model and Tom DeLay's unconstitutional Republican protection plan. Texans understand that the do nothing Culberson and Mike McCaul, the son-in-law to Clear Channel mogul Lowry Mays, don't represent them.
While Roll Call thinks it can't be done, it is clear that together, we can win two more congressional seats in Texas.
Texas is becoming increasingly competitive. We have gained seats in the Texas House two cycles in a row, flipped Dallas, solidified Austin, and have challengers building strong campaigns for U.S. Congress while incumbents continue to hold our ground.
The rankings were determined by dividing the challenger's cash on hand (CoH) by the incumbent's CoH to arrive at a "competitiveness" percentage for each race. David articulated a clear reason why back in 2006 when he said:
If you've got $500K, that's all well-and-good - but your opponent has $2M, then you've got a lot of ground to make up.
Under this equation the second most competitive non-open seat in America is CD-7 between Michael Skelly and Republican John Culberson with Skelly's race having a 246% competitiveness rating. The other high profile challenger in Texas, Larry Joe Doherty, makes the cut. LJD ranks a respectable 42 with a 38% competitiveness rating after a hard fought and expensive primary.
As for the Republican challengers, well, Lyle Larson and Pete Olson don't even crack the top 75, due to their primaries draining their campaign accounts.
It probably goes without saying, it's a good time to be a Democrat in Texas.
