As Monday's filing deadline approaches, give credit to Jack McDonald for realizing he was entering a race he could not win. Maybe he'll be back in'12. All you have to do is look at the numbers on the east side of CD10 to see that any Democrat would be wasting their time and money this cycle.
In 2008 McCaul beat Larry Joe Doherty by 36,000 votes district-wide despite a Libertarian who took almost 10,000. McCaul won 68% of the vote in Harris County . Harris accounted for 55% of the total vote.
2008 was the best Democratic political climate in years. Compare it to today's climate and you can see why McDonald decided to keep his powder dry.
How worried is Rep McCaul about his upcoming challenger from the Democratic Party, Jack McDonald? Enough to be running ads on every G**D**ned website featuring Jack's picture.
Can't say that this has happened before. Maybe there's something that Rep Michael (missing in action) McCaul is seeing in his polling?
With the recent allegations against Congressman Michael McCaul over multiple days on this website I believe that it is important to bring light to a letter released by BAE today to the Editors of many Texas Newspapers. There is no constituent of Congressman Michael McCaul that knows this issue any better than BAE themselves and below is a letter from their President of Global Tactical Systems thanking Congressman McCaul for all of his hard work and continued support.
Editor,
In light of the GAO's decision to uphold a key aspect of BAE Systems' protest of the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicle contract, I wanted to take a moment to thank our community for the remarkable support we have received over the last 17 years. While it's too early to speculate exactly what this decision means for our business, we look forward to working with the Army to ensure the continued production of FMTVs and discussing options for delivery of these vehicles beyond our current contract.
One of the most important and inspiring outcomes of this protest period is the amazing support we have received from our friends and neighbors. On behalf of the more than 3,000 employees at our Sealy plant, I wanted to offer my sincere thanks to the Sealy FMTV Task Force, the Greater Houston Partnership and the hundreds of individuals who have rallied on our behalf. We also appreciate the vigorous activity by elected officials across Texas.
Specifically, I wanted to thank Sealy's U.S. Congressional Representative Michael McCaul for his ongoing and steadfast support. Congressman McCaul has worked with us tirelessly and always maintained an open door policy with him and his staff. We have enjoyed hosting the Congressman and his staffers on numerous occasions, including several visits to our facilities over the past years. Even before the Army's decision to recomplete the FMTV contract, we met with Congressman McCaul's staff in his Washington office on a number of occasions to discuss the FMTV situation and other BAE Systems programs. Our offices could not have been more engaged, and we are proud to have such a strong ally on Capitol Hill.
It is an honor to be part of this extraordinary community who shares our commitment to America's men and women in uniform.
Dennis Morris
President, Global Tactical Systems
BAE Systems
Houston, Texas
Thanks to Congressman Michael McCaul for his continued hard work on behalf of the constituents of Tx-10.
After the 2006 election, I received many requests to post the ways I had run my campaign for TX-10, because I had received nearly 42% of the vote in this Tom Delay-gerrymandered 65% Republican District while spending only $65,000. I stated at the time that the Campaign had an impact much greater than the money spent because there was so much volunteer support. But, we did do a lot of things that maximized candidate-to-voter contact. This effort cost very little and some (me in particular) would say that it has a disporportionate impact on voters. I did not take the suggestions to post my methods because the opposition reads these things, as well. I determined to give this help directly to future TX-10 candidates, if they were interested. Larry Joe Doherty wasn't interested.
Jack McDonald recently spent a little time at my house and I gave him some of my thoughts. I told him that TX-10 was possible to win, but it would require a candidate to do all the things I was able to do, PLUS the things a candidate with money could do. It was hard to tell what Larry Joe did from my place in Houston, because he was largely invisible, here. I knew I should have spent much more time in Harris County during the campaign, but I couldn't because I was raising most of the money I did raise in Travis. Jack understands that he must concentrate his efforts in Harris for the General election. I think that my "success" in TX-10 in 2006 has made it possible for both Larry Joe and Jack to do so well in fund raising. In 2006, TX-10 was a "no hope" District. That's not true, now, and it makes donors much more willing. Both Larry Joe and Jack have been able to raise money outside the District. I am looking forward to working closely with Jack to help him win in 2010.
The topic of the day is KBH's feint at resignation. I think this has a very interesting possibility for TX-10, if it happens before filing in Jan. Presume a KBH resignation. Perry's appointment opens up the Lt. Gov. slot. Our Attorney General files for Lt. Gov. McCaul decides to file for Attorney General. It's a good move for McCaul. He has a good chance of winning. It's a much better job. He gets to live at home. If this happens, there will be a big expensive Repub battle for the nomination. It'll probably go to someone from Harris who is very, very conservative. That candidate will not get as many votes in Travis as McCaul. In this case, what I call the "Austin Kool-aid" might actually work. Larry Joe fell victim to the story that a Dem could do well enough in Travis that the Repub vote in Harris could be offset. I never believed this, and Jack says he doesn't either. But if an ultraconservative from Harris is the Repub nominee, it might be true. In any event, it will reduce the needed Dem vote in Harris to a more easily achievable number in an off-year.
We've been intermittently publishing the McCaul Retort for almost two and a half years. That's like fifteen years or something, in Interwebz time!
The Doherty campaign sent out the following quote from a McCaul communique:
I wish that I could email you under better circumstances, but today we received shocking news. After receiving numbers from the Travis and Harris County elections offices, we have determined that Democrats are out-voting Republicans 2:1 in both major counties in Congressman McCaul's district. This is based off of voters that have voted with primary history. This is very bad news.
(More good news for Democrats in Texas - promoted by Matt Glazer)
In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas' 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. As a disclaimer, and an illustration of the funding issue, I did $90 in robocalls for the challenger, Ted Ankrum, in the closing days.
For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty's 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.
TX-10 is described as a 'barbell district' due to having a large chunk of the district in Travis County (Austin), a large chunk in Harris County (Houston) and a thin strip of highway frontage in between. In 2006, Harris went 71-26 for McCaul and Travis went 56-38 for Ankrum. In this poll, McCaul takes Harris 63-33 and Doherty takes Travis by the same 63-33. Travis is the slightly larger end of the TX-10 barbell, but the 'bar' in between went 70-30 for McCaul, resulting in a McCaul lead.
Of note, I also polled Obama-McCain and Cornyn-Noriega in this district and found those races to be more favorable to the other Republicans than they are to McCaul. Cornyn leads Noriega 54-44 and McCain leads Obama 55-41. Statewide, my past results have been more in line with Baselice than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen on these races, but I do not have current statewide numbers to report.
Historically, turnout in this district doesn't include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton's popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.
There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.
528 likely voters polled 6/2/2008, margin of error 4.3%
And although I can't find a picture of it now, I was surprised to see Johns McCain, Hagee and Cornyn standing up in front of the media, happy as three pigs in a poke. A subsequent search for photos shows KayBee and Cornyn standing proudly with the anti-Catholic firebrand.
Another thing I don't understand: How Michael McCaul's head doesn't explode as he soaks this all in. He's Catholic. Which only matters in as much as his party's standard bearer is making nice with John Hagee. And his mentor, John Cornyn, has apparently made nice with John Hagee. And his state's senior senator has made nice with John Hagee.
Honestly, how does he hold in his head the fact that his party's presidential nominee and his mentor are so in love with John Hagee? How does his head not explode? How does he not get disgusted with his party? How does he keep his mouth shut?
There are some things, I guess, I'll just never understand.
The reviews are in, and consumer spending this holiday season was up a mere 3.6 percent over the year before. It was the weakest increase in at least four years, as families purchased fewer presents to put under the tree -- and spent one-third of that increase on gasoline.
The news is the latest evidence that the free spending fueled by Washington's aimless policies in Iraq has turned our economy into the equivalent of a grade-B horror flick come to life -- Return of the Living Debt.
On Oct 18th, I sent a message to Congressman McCaul, urging him to hold Big Telecom accountable for providing our information to the White House.
Today, Oct 25th, I sent a similar message to Senators Cornyn and Hutchison.
I'm willing to bet that I hear from the Senators, and hear nothing from the Congressman.
Why do I think that? Because McCaul's office has NEVER responded to anything I've sent regarding a particular policy issue.
(They did respond to a request I initiated (by phone) as part of a St. Ed's course assignment.)
For those fans of Congressman McCaul who wonder why we say his constituent service is less than satisfactory...this is one reason why. It's not just because we're being mean and partisan.
