Valinda Bolton is, once again, probably the Travis County House Democrat most in danger of losing a reelection campaign. By now a veteran of tough campaigns, she today announced her reelection campaign core.
Elizabeth Hartman, who's been through the ropes with Representative Bolton before, will once again head up Bolton's reelection team. Also joining Representative Bolton will be the top two men from the Karen Sage campaign, Jim Wick and Shawn Badgley, who will be the Field Director and Deputy Field Director, respectively.
Hartman will likely run a steady ship from now until November, because she's done so before. And, after all, it isn't hard to make a stellar representative who has formed coalitions to secure lasting drinking water and improved road security measures.
Wick and Badgley, meanwhile, are coming off running one of the stronger field campaigns Travis County has seen in recent years. Although most local politicos thought that Montford was headed to a victory, Sage won precisely because she had a very, very strong field organization. It will be exciting to see the Bolton reelection campaign with a similar force.
DISTRICT JUDGE, 299th JUDICIAL DISTRICT - DEM 210 of 210 Precincts Reporting
Candidate
Early Voting
Election Day
Total Vote
Karen Sage
3,214 - 57.51%
3,616 - 59.89
6,830 - 58.74%
Mindy Montford
2,375 - 42.49%
2,422 - 40.11%
4,797 - 41.26%
Congratulations to the Karen Sage campaign team, and all her supporters who worked hard to get her elected. I was proud to vote for Karen in the primary, and again in the runoff, and I look forward to her work on the bench once her title becomes official after the November elections. I'd also like to extend my thanks to Mindy Montford and her supporters for running a strong, positive campaign.
There will probably be some fun precinct analysis for this race, but I'm not very good at that level of data -- I leave that up to one of our readers or other writers, if they want to delve in that far. For now, I'm just (again) wishing congratulations to Karen for her great win, and look forward to hearing more from her in the coming years.
With one week until the April 13th Runoff being complete, the only Democratic race in Travis County is simultaneously gearing up and winding down. Barring any late surprises, the contest between Mindy Montford and Karen Sage has been a positive affair and at this point the final strategies have been set.
On Monday the two campaigns released their 8-day pre-election campaign finance reports. As noted below, Montford outraised Sage for the Feb 22nd - Apr 3rd reporting period and ended the period with seven times as much cash on hand. Sage had higher expenditures than Montford. Sage is still carrying $20,000 in personal loans, which technically gives her negative cash on hand numbers but it's traditional for campaigns to return or forgive that personal debt after the campaign so I've not counted that below.
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on Hand
Mindy Montford
$66,145
$46,122
$10,977
Karen Sage
$21,719
$55,645
$1,613
As to what the campaigns are spending money on? Besides consultants and money for field staff from both campaigns, the submitted reports won't cover the latest expenditures. We can see what each campaign is spending money on from what they have produced to voters, though. For Karen Sage, those limited dollars are going into a TV ad (with about $12,000 already being posted for mail after the runoff in the 8-day report). With no expenditure listed for TV in the report, and no daily finance reports posted to note last minute large contributions, it would appear that the following ad can't be running very widely (not that I would spend any money on TV in a low turnout runoff but hey, to each their own).
Sage's ad focuses on mental health, something that has been talked a lot about from all candidates in this race, and invokes District Attorney Rosemary Lehmburg (who of course, defeated Montford in a 2008 runoff for District Attorney). As for Montford, direct mail from the Montford campaign has already hit voters' mailboxes at least once this week.
Beyond the traditional hallmarks of mail, tv, and field, both campaigns have a presence in the social networking space, though Montford's networks tend to be larger than Sage's due in part from running before and simply having lived in Austin longer.
On their main Facebook Campaign pages, Montford has 628 supporters to Sage's 399. Beyond that, Montford has a personal page with a network of over 1500 friends with Sage's personal profile listing just shy of 360 friends. Montford also has 2 additional groups, one with 370 supporters and a GLBT specific group for her campaign with 35 additional folks. While there's always some overlap in groups, all told Montford's social network presence is about four times as large as Sage's. Only Montford is on Twitter where she has 73 followers. For fairness sake, Montford has hired the social networking gurus at GNI Strategies.
With the Austin American-Statesman backing Montford, and the Austin Chronicle backing Sage, it's not as if the runoff is expected to be a blowout for either side. Early vote to date includes 1491 in person voters and 638 mail voters for a total of 2129. I expect total turnout to be around the 13,000 mark with as low as 10,000 and as high as 15,000.
I've taken a look at a little analysis of the first early votes and can say this much. Precincts are turning out at about the same rates around the county as they did in March. Someone's Vote By Mail campaign was successful as there is a higher than expected share of "new" vote by mail voters. There are very few "new" voters that didn't already vote in the March runoff. The electorate is old and the electorate is very white. As to what that means, I have my own opinions but since I'm biased I'll leave that for friends and those in the comments to debate.
Update: What should appear in my inbox minutes ago? A fundraising appeal from the Montford campaign asking for help to go up on TV to respond to Sage's TV spot. My opinion doesn't change, I think it's equally silly to put resources on the air to try to lure new voters into the runoff- the evidence just isn't there that that will happen. Maybe the fairest way to put my critique is that putting money on TV at the *expense* of mail or field is a bad idea. If you are going on air in addition to your existing outreach and it's a luxury item you can afford, then sure, go ahead. Maybe Montford's cash edge is making her feel confident enough to raise some new dollars to respond that wouldn't have otherwise been there to direct to something else. But will an ad be cut and on air before the end of the week and 1/3 to 1/2 of the votes are cast? We'll see.
Update 2: I forgot that candidate who loan themselves money do not have to file it on the late "24 hour" reports required for late donations. Loophole of sorts, and probably how Sage is funding her TV buy- self funding.
Montford seems to have stronger (or at least more visible) support among party heavyweights, while Sage has earned a reputation for her well-organized grassroots campaign. Other distinguishing details: Sage's progressive activism stretches back to the late Paul Wellstone's 1990 Senate campaign in Minnesota, and she's actively involved in the county's innovative mental health docket; as a prosecutor, Montford worked on the Tom DeLay case among many others, and she more recently had a brief run-in with the Austin Police Department that should provide a personal education in the limits of law enforcement....we think both of these candidates are fine people, but again, on balance, in light of the broad range of her experience here and elsewhere and her demonstrated seriousness of purpose, our recommendation goes to Sage.
11:48am update: I updated this post in the last 20 minutes b/c I originally published an unfinished draft....
I've spoken at length with many people involved with this race, including Karen Sage (who requested a meeting with me), Mark Littlefield and Rick Cofer (both supporting Mindy Montford), as well as my fellow BOR writers. I've actually spoken to Sage on multiple occassions, including at our Netroots 'N 'Boots bash last fall, when she took twenty minutes of her evening to talk with myself, my finacee, and two of my best friends about why she was a qualified candidate.
I wish I had recorded my conversations with Karen. She is simply a phenomenal person. Her experience goes far beyond what is written on her campaign website. As she writes on her website, she helped prosecute "the largest car insurance fraud in history at that time" while working in New York. But it's another story she tells that really captures my interest in Sage...a story that talks about Karen's character, and the work she's done, and how sometimes it matters more what work you choose to do and how you come to accept your life of public service than anything else.
From Karen's website:
Prior to working in the US Attorney’s Office, Karen served as Counsel to the Mayor of Los Angeles for three years...She assisted in negotiating deals between the city and property owners to enable Magic Johnson to begin his movie theater company, which operates theaters in underserved neighborhoods and has become a great success. It was in this job of working for the mayor that Karen found her true calling of public service.
The creation of the Magic Johnson movie theaters is to this day a major, major, major deal. As Magic Johnson himself said in a recent 2008 interview:
LC: When you decided to take that challenge, you took it in the form of building a movie theater in a very densely populated but crime-ridden neighborhood, where the only other theater had a metal detector. Most people would have run screaming from an idea like that. You ran toward it. Why? MJ: It was an opportunity to make a difference. When I did my research on minorities, at the time they made up 35 percent of all moviegoers—an extremely high number. So I said, “Wow, if African Americans are going but there are no theaters in that community, if I build one, they will come.” And I’m going to help them understand that if violence happens, this theater will close. So I’m just gonna say, “Hey, look, I’m building a brand-new theater. We’re gonna employ people from this neighborhood, and this is for you.” And I talked to both gangs, and they told me they would not do anything bad in the theaters. So we hired some gang members on the construction crew.
LC: So smart. MJ: A lot of them got permanent jobs. And that was at a time when nobody was investing in the emerging market, black or white. So I came in early, and that theater is still one of the most successful. It still has not had any graffiti on the building or crime inside the theater. It’s been a sense of pride for South Central. And I’m so happy I started with that movie theater.
Karen Sage helped make that movie theater happen. I've heard her tell the story of all the negotiations, of all the various business entities who never thought building a movie theather in the middle of South Central would ever work -- and didn't believe it was even useful. Yet Karen stuck with it, got it done, and today describes that work as the time when she "found her true calling of public service."
Here's the thing: Karen has stories like this from all of her jobs and all the places she's lived. Whether it's the class on the Ethics of Criminal Law at the University of Texas that she has designed and taught, or her time fighting white collar crime in New York, it doesn't matter. Listening to Karen Sage speak is getting an opportunity to hear the stories of someone who has committed her entire life to improving the quality of life of any community in the country.
Do these experiences automatically qualify her to be a judge for the 299th District Court? I think so, yes. Because being a judge is about having a broad range of experience to pull from. It's about the ability to think creatively for every case and think about the unique ways the community can support and enforce justice. I consider the work of a judge to be most about character and commitment -- which Karen has in spades.
And maybe that's what impresses me most about Karen. She could have (and has) lived almost anywhere in the United States, but she chose Austin. She wants to make a difference here. She wants to improve our communities here. When she moved to Austin years ago, she was appointed by Rosemary Lehmberg (Travis County DA) to "develop and formulate the Mental Health Court Docket" and is on Mayor Lee Leffingwell's mental health task force. Karen may not be a lifelong Austinite, but she has already put her considerable talents to work in our community.
I support Karen Sage because she is a tireless champion for public service and will be an outstanding judge on the 299th District Court.
With about a month left to go until the April 13th runoff election for the Democratic nomination for the 299th District Court race, Mindy Montford announced new support yesterday at a runoff kickoff fundraiser.
Having already raised $25,000 in the week since the March 2nd primary where she led 2nd place finisher Karen Sage 45% to 37%, Montford announced the support of 3rd place finisher Leonard Martinez who had received about 13% of the vote.
Montford also picked up the endorsement of the Mexican American Democrats of Austin, Austin Mayor Lee Leffingwell, County Attorney David Escamilla, County Judge Sam Biscoe, Education Austin President Louis Malfaro, Community Activist Nelson Linder, and the Travis County Sheriff's Corrections Officers- all new since March 2nd. At the event she announced the addition of GNI Strategies to her consulting team. In attendance yesterday (but not necessarily endorsing) were Judge Elizabeth Earle and judicial nominees Cliff Brown and John Lipscombe.
Following Montford's announcement the Karen Sage campaign re-released a list of their previous endorsements which included, but oddly didn't highlight, picking up the endorsement of 4th place finisher Eve Schatelowitz-Alcantar who had received less than 5% of the vote.
In an email from campaign manager Jim Wick, made available for distribution.
When considering the run-off for the 299th District Court, there are several important factors that will play a huge role.
IT'S THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN. While many voters turned to the polls to vote specifically for other races (particularly TX-GOV, DC-201, CC-3), the "unknown" factor will be minimized significantly in this run-off. Voters will be going to the polls to vote for or against Montford or Sage.
LOW TURN-OUT, LOW TARGET UNIVERSE. In a low turn-out, low target universe election, the ground game is by far the most important factor. Please reference the attached data. Voter turnout in run-off elections is highest in Central Austin precincts. Sage's ground game is undeniably the best in this election.
NAME ID MEANS MUCH LESS. In a run-off election, very few voters fail to do their homework. The vast majority of voters in this run-off will be highly educated and will be familiar with both candidates. In precincts where candidates were known by the voters, Sage has already won the simple majority of votes.
SAGE HAS NO NEGATIVES. Karen Sage has lived her life as though she were already a judge. She will not be tarnished into losing votes in the key top precincts.
REPUBLICAN CROSS-OVER MEANS LESS TURN-OUT. In this run-off, Democratic voters in more Republican areas of Travis County that voted in the Republican Primary will not be eligible to vote in the run-off. Montford did significantly better than Sage in moderately Republican areas, but those precincts will likely not turn out in a fashion similar to the 2008 run-off.
Most of this is pretty reasonable and accurate though I would disagree with the latter points. Sage does have negatives, everyone does; it's more of a factor of whether those will come up in a runoff. My guess is that it's really about whether Sage pulls the trigger on any negative points on Montford since she finished first going into the runoff, and if so, then there will be a negative response. The whole Republican cross-over argument seems like a bit of a red herring.
We know that dual endorsements aren't the boldest of decisions. But the 299th District Court race is a four-person field destined for a runoff between Mindy Montford and Karen Sage -- even the supporters of each of those campaigns will tell you that. Montford and Sage deserve to be in a runoff. They are each excellent candidates who bring a lot of talent to this particular race. We also want to notify our readers -- and the campaigns -- that once the race goes into a runoff, we are committed to engaging directly with each campaign, and we will make a firm decision before the runoff.
Before we tell you why voting for either candidate makes sense, we wanted to show you how split the endorsements have been for this race -- and make sure to note that a lot of the votes amongst the clubs were pretty close. Ultimately, we're not the only ones who can't make up our minds:
We'd like to offer an argument for why a vote for either Montford or Sage is a good vote on March 2:
Why You Should Vote For Mindy Montford
Montford worked as Assistant District Attorney for nine years under Ronnie Earle. She worked on the Public Integrity Unit that investigated and ultimately indicted Tom Delay. She also has extensive experience handling cases that would come before the court here in Austin -- which, as her supporters argue, gives her a terrific read/feel for what our community expects when it comes to balancing justice and fairness in trials. Montford can credibly say she has grown up among us, learned among us, and now is ready to give back to the community she's worked in and served in for years.
Montford's support in the Austin Bar Poll is another sign of her strength -- earning 60% in a field of four is an incredible feat. A quick straw poll among the staff confirmed that none of us would get a 60% approval rating from each other. Montford is clearly a leader among her peers, and that level of respect is an important barometer for how Montford develops trust in relationships with colleagues. If you want to decide your vote based on what the people who know the work of the 299th District Court think, then a vote for Montford is for you.
Sage once knocked on doors for Paul Wellstone. When she joined the Travis County District's office in 2006, she was appointed by Rosemary Lehmberg to create and prosecute cases before the Menal Health District Court with the goal of finding alternative forms of treatment. Her prior work around the country is impressive (read about it on her website), and she has designed and teaches a class on the Ethics of Criminal Law at the University of Texas. Sage has not had as much experience inside the Austin community as Montford, but her endorsements from a wide array of Democratic clubs and organizations has shown that she's been here long enough to earn the trust of many here in Austin.
Anyone who gets the chance to hear Sage speaks about the issues is immediately impressed with how well she explains the various sides to a case, as well as pinpointing and justifying the precise reasons for why she takes action. She will actively discuss her views on the judicial system, and even as she discusses how she has one convictions in all five of her murder cases she has tried, she comes across as thoughtful, understated, and always willing to listen.
As many folks who pay attention to such things know, I have recently moved from the race for Judge Wilford Flowers' bench, the 147th, into the race for Judge Charlie Baird's bench, the 299th. Now that I have filed for the ballot, I wanted to explain why I made this move and why I believe this is best for Travis County, the Democratic Party, and me.
First, I can't say enough about how proud I am of my campaign. We fought and campaigned hard in the 147th, but it was always respectful, positive, and focused on the court. I am happy that I can say the same about my former opponent, Cliff Brown. I wish Cliff the best of luck and offer my sincere thanks for engaging in a spirited and important conversation about justice in Travis County.
I will continue to run a respectful, positive, and justice-oriented campaign for the 299th. When I heard that Judge Baird was retiring, I was shocked, then saddened. The innovative and courageous way in which Judge Baird approached justice is something I have admired greatly in his time as a District Judge. That is why, in my mind, it was a simple choice to make the move into the race for his seat.
For more than five months, I have been speaking about the needs of the underserved in the criminal justice system, including the mentally ill and the mentally disabled. With Judge Baird not seeking re-election, it is now more important than ever that Travis County voters choose a courageous, compassionate, and committed judge to continue to improve the way we do justice in Travis County. I hope to further Charlie's work in my own way, looking at new and innovative solutions to the revolving door of criminal justice and seeking to reduce recidivism.
Since I decided to move to the 299th, I have been overwhelmed by the new support for my campaign and the words of encouragement from my friends, colleagues, and supporters. In just a few days, I have earned the public support of nearly a hundred Democratic voters, including:
Joyce Adejumo, Jim Arth, Lance Bagby, Christine Baleshta, Emma Barrientos, Ben Blackburn, Lila Carl, Bryan Case, Elizabeth Christian, Simon Coats, Gary Cobb, Nichelle Cobb, Elsie Craven, Cecelia Crossley, Ralph Dalton, Ian Davis, Chris Dorbandt, Eva Eakin, Hon. Chris Elliott, Mary Ann Espiritu, Lisa Evans, Amy Everhart, Patricia Floyd, Ann Gardner, Bonny Gardner, Kay Gaul, Erik Goodman, Richard Gravois, Natalie Gray, Kathleen Green, Julia Guernsey, Carla Guthrie, Catherine Haenni, Russell Hahn, Amy Hajdu, Barbara Harverstick, John Hinton, Shirley Johnson, Katie King, Hon. Ann Kitchen, R.B. Klug, Anne T. Kohler, Ken Koock, Paul Labuda, Hon. Glen Maxey, Anne & Bill McAfee, Fred McGhee, Bertha Means, Hon. Myra McDaniel, Tyler Miloy, Amy Wong Mok, Joel Morgan, Nancy Neavel, Mary Ann Neely, James & Lisa O'Donnell, William & Gina O'Hara, Matt Parkerson, Penelope Porter, Walter Prentice, Ellen Richards, Jo Ann Richmond, Peggy Romberg, Wade Russell, Larry Sauer, Rosanne Scott, Ronald Seamon, Billie Shelton, Dawn Skinner, Scott Smith, Niyanta Spelman, Paula Talley, Walter Timberlake, Hon. Bruce Todd, Joe Turner, Valentina Vale, Kitty Villa, Mark Westenhover, Jill Williams, Mark Yznaga, and Greg Zaney
With the primary vote less than three months away, my campaign team and I will work harder than ever, and I look forward to meeting more Democratic voters to talk about this race.
Yesterday, Karl-Thomas and David wrote about both Baird's rumored retirement and Karen Sage's announcement to switch races and run for 299th District Court.
This morning, Judge Baird released an official statement announcing his intentions to complete his term and not run for re-election.
Here is the statement in full.
Today, Judge Charlie Baird announced that he will not seek re-election to the 299th District Court.
"Serving the people of Travis County has been the highest honor of my professional career," said Baird. "I am leaving the best job on earth, to devote more time to life's most important job, being a parent." Baird is the father of two preschool-aged children.
Baird's time in office has been notable for his efforts to help criminal defendants extricate themselves from the criminal justice system and become productive members of society.
Baird established a program to help defendants find employment and uses his courtroom to hold parenting, anger management and cognitive skills classes. The classes are free and frequently attended by Baird.
Earlier this year, Baird made history when he presided over the first posthumous exoneration in Texas, clearing the name of Tim Cole who was unjustly convicted of rape in Lubbock and later died in prison.
Baird, 54, was elected district judge in 2006 and took office on January 1, 2007. His term of office will end on December 31, 2010.
From 1990 through 1998, Baird, a Democrat, served on the Court of Criminal Appeals, Texas' highest criminal court. From 1999 until his election, Baird served as a visiting trial and appellate judge, and taught criminal law subjects at Texas Tech University and South Texas College of Law, his alma mater. At the end of his current term, Baird will have served twenty (20) years in the judiciary.
Baird left open the door for a future run for political office, saying: "There will be an appropriate opportunity for me to return to public service but now is the time to devote to my family."
Baird, known for having a large number of photographs of his wife and children in his chambers, often questions criminal defendants about their children and frequently orders them to take parenting classes.
Last June, Baird announced that he would seek re-election and had been endorsed by many elected officials, community leaders and attorneys. He is currently unopposed in both the Democratic Party Primary and the General Election. Baird said the contributions to his re-election campaign would be returned.
As Karen Sage moves quickly and deliberately into the race for 299th, the rumors of Mindy Montford running turned from insider discussion to public conversation. Montford, former candidate for District Attorney, began a discussion on facebook last night asking friends what they thought of a potential run.
Montford has residual name ID from running in a high profile, well financed race recently, but would that be enough to defeat Sage who is already in the race and has been in the field for months?
Tomorrow is the first day to apply for the ballot. Expect our Democratic candidates to shake up a little more before the January deadline as both expected and unexpected candidates begin to file.
