Thanks to Nhu Le of Austin, TX for this summary of last night's reception welcoming the DNC Asian Pacific Islander American Caucus to Austin, TX! Cross-posted at APA for Progress and AAA-Fund.
Even though the race may not officially exist yet, there is plenty going on in the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the U.S. Senate.
If you're in Austin, John Sharp is launching his campaign at Abel's on the Lake at 6pm tonight. Suggested contribution is $35.
Speaking of Sharp, Galveston County Democratic Party Chair Lloyd Criss has a BOR diary up encouraging the former Comptroller to get out of the Senate race and run for Lt. Governor. Criss, as you might imagine, is supporting Houston Mayor Bill White for the U.S. Senate.
Bill White's campaign has named Joe Hamill to be their Central Texas Regional Field Director. Hamill, an Austin native and Austin High graduate, was the Field Director for the Travis County Democratic Party's Coordinated Campaign last year. Austin area supporters for White will also be registering voters at First Thursday on South Congress tomorrow (Facebook event info)
While Whole Foods CEO John Mackey's health care editorial from the WSJ inspired a small protest outside the store's Austin headquarters it also apparently got Russell Verney, a former advisor to Ross Perot, thinking Mackey could be a solid candidate for the Senate. Unsurprisingly, a Whole Foods spokesperson tells the Statesman "there is absolutely no truth to that rumor."
Gardner Selby had a story a few days ago about Austin area legislators taking sides in the U.S. Senate race. Diana Maldonado and Valinda Bolton are hosting Sharp's event tonight while Patrick Rose, Mark Strama and Dawnna Dukes are backing White.
All this and yet, thanks to the indecisive mind of Kay Bailey Hutchison, no election date.
I wrote about this last April when it launched, and wanted to remind everyone that the deadline is September 15:
We are currently accepting applications for unpaid 3 month fellowship with the campaign through May 3rd, 2009. Please fill out the following form and the campaign will be in touch with you shortly.
Applicants for Bill White Fellowships should be:
Interested and involved in statewide and national politics
Leaders within their own communities
Capable of learning the technologies used in campaigns
It's always good to see outreach for training Democrats. The more experience people get, the larger our talent pool grows for future elections and campaigns.
Coming back from Netroots Nation, we've had an extremely busy week talking about statewide candidates. We wanted to take some time this morning to look back at our major stories, both to give everyone a chance to catch what they may have missed, and to put some context around larger stories that have developed recently:
TX-Gov, Republican Edition: Kay Bailey Hutchison Stumbles Into the Governor's Race
Yes, Senator Hutchison's campaign announcement was the most dominant story of the week. But did anything get through? Rick Perry -- who has previously been described as a "cyborg" here at Burnt Orange REport -- stepped on every day of her campaign announcement. Moreover, it's hard to get excited about a candidate announcing, for the twelfth time, that she is going to run for Governor. Even the press started getting nit-picky this week with Senator Hutchison, proving her initial roll-out to be highly ineffectual and raising the question: does she even stand a chance against Rick Perry?
Michael began the week discussing an issue with the Tom Schieffer that goes unnoticed among the general uneasiness of his support for former President Bush -- that is, his actual stances on policy. From Michael's well-written post:
The rate of current events convince me that the basics of a campaign infrastructure will materialize and improve. But I'm not convinced that this will happen with all of the campaign. I worry that a full-blown Schieffer campaign will not offer any true policy proposals to the people of Texas.
Meanwhile, another possible candidate -- Ronnie Earle -- met in Austin with the Texans for Obama group. Katherine was in attendance, and wrote strong reviews of Earle in her post -- going so far as to say that "it appears that he's already considering the shape of a potential bid: a strongly-grassroots, supporter-driven campaign with an emphasis on personally connecting with the voters." However, that didn't make him immune from the same policy concerns Michael had raised about Schieffer, as Katherine wrote:
Earle enumerated several key issues on which this prosperity-push would focus, namely education, jobs, health care, transportation, and the environment. However, he demured from offering specific policy proposals, repeatedly stating that he wasn't a candidate yet.
No one really likes to talk about policy specifics in August of an off-year, and if given the choice, we'd prefer -- right now -- a candidate with a strong narrative that was able to go out and persuade donors that his or her campaign is serious enough to be investing in. But speaking broadly about public education and law enforcement isn't going to be enough -- and we encourage our candidates, our progressive organizations, our readers, and ourselves to begin forcing more specific discussions on policy in the coming weeks and months leading up to the filing deadline.
The U.S. Senate race is about to get serious -- especially now that Hutchison is officially in the Governor's race, and that she's announced her semi-sort-of-maybe-waffle-not-sure-can-I-take-a-rain-check-on-ever-making-a-decision candidacy, we are going to turn our attention not only to exposing her and Perry's horrific records as politicians, but also to the U.S. Senate race. This week, that conversation centered predominantly around Bill White.
Last Friday at Netroots Nation, White met in Pittsburgh with Texas and national bloggers to discuss his candidacy. Katherine's report on the event included the following positive outlook on the race:
Texas should take pride in having sent one of the most engaging and motivated Democratic candidates to Netroots Nation this year. That would be Houston Mayor Bill White...The Mayor came up to Pittsburgh during the annual gathering to address national bloggers and make the case as to why Democrats can and will win statewide in Texas.
Some are pressing for White to switch races. With the momentum of a successful tenure as mayor of the state's largest city, the moderate White appears to be the best thing going for Texas Democrats in 2010.
I want to know who these people are that continue to "press" Houston Mayor Bill White to get out of a potential senate race and get into a gubernatorial race he doesn't want to run in. Who are you? Get off his back! The man you should be "pressing" to get out of a potential senate race and get into a gubernatorial race that needs a serious injection of excitement is John Sharp.
I believe it would be good for the Democratic Party to have more than one person in the gubernatorial race. As we sit right now only one serious candidate, Tom Schieffer, has declared, but former Travis County District Attorney, Ronnie Earle, appears to be revving up his political engines for a statewide campaign too. I think Sharp is better qualified, and in a better position politically, to change the dynamics completely of the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Sharp's campaign doesn't appear to be raising the funds necessary, outside of personal loans, to remain competitive in a potential U.S. senate race. I suspect that is because those donors who thought Mayor White would run for governor versus the United States Senate suddenly found themselves choosing between Sharp and White. Many people, including myself, believe that Bill White is the brightest star we have in the Democratic Party, and donors and grassroots supporters do too. Those who committed to Sharp assuming White would run for governor suddenly switched allegiances upon his announcement that he would run in an eventual special election senate race. White's fundraising numbers prove that is the case. That doesn't mean those donors don't support Sharp, they just don't support him in a head to head race with Bill White.
Houston Mayor Bill White and State Sen. Eliot Shapleigh. Photo Credit: Bill White for Texas.
After leaving Netroots Nation, where Bill White spoke at a lunch with Texas and national bloggers and participated in a energy security panel, the Houston Mayor and U.S. Senate candidate was off to El Paso.
While in El Paso, White received the endorsements of Congressman Silvestre Reyes, State Sen. Eliot Shapleigh, State Rep. Chente Quintanillla, State Rep. Joe Moody, State Rep. Marisa Marquez, Mayor John Cook, Commissioner Willie Gandara, Jr. and nearly half a dozen school board officials.
The only two Democratic membesr of El Paso's state legislative delegation not to have endorsed White are State Reps. Joe Pickett and Norma Chavez. Chavez has endorsed John Sharp and Pickett is currently neutral.
John Sharp speaks to El Paso Democrats. Photo Credit: Newspaper Tree, 7/21/09.
Both Democratic U.S. Senate candidates seem to be focused on El Paso. Sharp visited recently (and ate grasshopper tacos). The former Texas comptroller, who visited El Paso for a shorter time than White, held one public event organized by Chavez and city Rep. Eddie Houlgin and hosted by the Camino Real Mexican-American Democrats. The Newspaper Tree reported attendance of slightly more than 100 people.
White's trip included a Sunday night event with 250 people and a Monday event with a 150 person turnout. White's daughter, Elena is also working in El Paso for her father's campaign and she may deserve part of the credit for the large disparity in endorsements.
You can read more about each candidates's recent visit at their respective campaign websites (Bill White and John Sharp).
Martin Frost recently published an opinion piece in Politico in which the former Congressman makes the case that Houston Mayor Bill White is Democrats' best hope to win the U.S. Senate seat.
Texas has been trending Democratic the past few years ... So a Bill White victory is not inconceivable, even if he faces a run-of-the-mill conservative in a runoff.
Meanwhile, White is methodically traveling the state, raising money and getting ready. Whether he is a true visionary remains to be determined.
Surprisingly, Frost paints White as the only Democrat in the field, going as far to say:
White may be the only Democrat in the race, though one other former statewide Democratic officeholder, John Sharp, has said he might run.
Actually, Sharp has filed for the seat and given no public indication that he is considering exiting the Senate race. Whether Frost knows something more or was trying to better position his presumedly favored candidate Bill White is unknown.
Frost went on to write:
If White, who has wide support from the Democratic establishment in the state and who has already raised a significant amount of money, were the only Democrat on the ballot, he would be assured of a place in any runoff against whichever Republican survives.
Frost is not the only Washington-based pundit to suggest tha Democrats would be better off with only one major candidate in a possible special election.
In June, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza wrote that Democrats had a chance to pick up the seat but, "in truth, for Democrats to have a pickup opportunity, Sharp would probably need to step aside."
Frost's editorial could be a sign that the Washington Democratic establishment is ready to line up behind White following his impressive fundraising numbers. Whether that establishment backing will translate into electoral success, however, remains to be seen.
The recent years of tuition deregulation and poor stock market performance have left the Texas Tomorrow Fund, a state-guaranteed prepaid higher education plan that was later renamed the Texas Guaranteed Tuition Plan, nearly broke and destined to use as much as $2.1 billion of tax dollars to pay for the college tuition costs for more than $100,000 Texan students.
“The taxpayers of Texas voted this in, and the taxpayers of Texas have obligated themselves to pay this out over time,” Combs said. “You can't pull a California and send (parents) an IOU. You have a hole, and you must get a shovel and start filling in.”
Combs said the fund will run out of money between 2015 and 2017. The state will have to completely pay for the tuition and fees of children who have the contracts for the next 15 to 20 years.
The Texas Tomorrow Fund was created by the Legislature in 1995 at the urging of then-Comptroller John Sharp, now a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate. Voters in 1997 approved guaranteeing the college contracts with the state's credit.
Some, like former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff, opposed establishing the fund and backing it with the state's credit.
“I did my best back then to warn that there would come a day when we'd have to increase the cost of higher education,” Ratliff said. “It just seemed to me that it was likely to create some serious problems in the future.”
Sharp said there were no problems with the fund at the time of its creation. He said actuaries set the price of the contracts based on the cost of education at the time and investment earnings. Sharp said the price of the college plans could have been adjusted over time with increased tuition costs and fluctuations in the investment market.
Sharp puts the blame on current Comptroller Susan Combs, who first took office following Carole Strayhorn in 2003 and closed the program in 2007.
When tuition was deregulated in 2003, then-Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn suspended new enrollment for the plan. The cost of college tuition at a state university rose by an average of 23 percent that year. Combs closed the program after taking office in 2007.
The Legislature in 2007 created a new college fund called the Texas Tuition Promise Fund. Its cost is much higher — $39,400 to buy an infant a four-year college plan — and the investments are not guaranteed by the state.
Sharp said the original prepaid tuition program has financial problems because Combs closed it to new enrollment. Sharp said pensions and Social Security need new members to remain solvent over long periods.
“If you want to know why the shortfall is there, the name is Susan Combs,” he said.
Combs said Sharp is wrong. She likened the idea of using new enrollees' money to cover a shortfall with previous participants to a Ponzi scheme. She said the problem is the price of the contracts was set too low and the investments for the plan did not cover the cash-out payments.
“(New enrollees) don't help the hole,” she said. “The hole is the hole is the hole.”
While appearing on a Dallas talk radio show this morning, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison told host Mark Davis that she expected to resign her seat in the Senate in October or November.
Davis: So you’ll be coming out at some point. When do you think its decision time for you? When would you like when might we know?
Hutchison: I’m going to announce in August. Formal announcement I am in. Then the actual leaving of the Senate will be sometime – October/November – that-- in that time frame.
While it first should be said that Hutchison has said plenty of things over the years and many skeptics will not be convinced until she actually resigns, this is the closest Hutchison herself has come to setting a real timetable for an exit from the Senate.
Once Hutchison resigns, the non-existent U.S. Senate race we have been reporting about for months will suddenly have an election date and a new incumbent, as Gov. Rick Perry will be able appoint someone to fill the term between the resignation and the special election.
Who would Perry pick? Many Republicans aeem to be waiting to see who Perry picks before they decide to back a candidate. If Perry picks someone like Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who would be able to self-finance his campaign with millions of dollars, it is hard to imagine Republican candidates who have so far been fundraising failures, like Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones, being very competitive.
The campaign spokesman for former Secretary of State Roger Williams, who was a Perry apointee, recently speculated that Williams' relatively strong fundraising quarter could put him in a good position to receive the appointment. Clearly, Perry will be looking to back a winning horse and given his options, he may decide Dewhurst, for all the Lieutenant Governor's flaws, is his best bet.
Gardner Selby wrote last week that Perry was considering calling a special election much earlier than many had assumed, potentially calling for an election before the end of the year.
Under the law, if the governor determines that an emergency warrants holding a special election before the uniform election date, then it can be on a nonuniform date as long as the governor identifies the nature of the emergency.
Translation: The election can happen any day the governor pleases.
And should Hutchison step down, Perry would consider setting an election shortly. Perry spokeswoman Allison Castle told me, "If a vacancy were to occur, the governor would be inclined to call an election soon to ensure Texans are fully represented" in Washington.
While it is fun (and exhausting) to speculate about the many scenarios that could play out following Hutchison's resignation, we have learned over the years that with Hutchison there is often a disconnect between words and actions.
