In the Aftermath of the Massachusetts Senate Results

by: Texas Nate

Wed Jan 20, 2010 at 04:03 PM CST

It's clear we haven't been picking the right candidates. The mood of the electorate is angry and frightened. We desperately need candidates that can address voters' very real concerns head on, not endlessly repeat the talking points coming out of Washington, D.C.

In Texas, we've got John Sharp running for U.S. Senate. And despite the set back last night, Sharp's candidacy represents a very real opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat in Texas.

Matt Glazer, Phillip Martin and Harold Cook have all made excellent posts re-iterating the obvious: Texas ain't Massachusetts.

Here's another angle on how they differ: in Texas we've got good candidates and I'm not just talking about Bill White.

John Sharp: Still Going Strong

by: Michael Hurta

Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:21 AM CST

From an email he sent out last week:

We thought you might be interested in this story that appeared in the Dallas Morning News today.  Kay Bailey Hutchison today confirmed she will indeed be resigning her senate seat.

Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News wrote this, "An erroneous TV report has caused quite a stir in political circles over whether Kay Bailey Hutchison  plans to resign from the Senate. She does. No change. Nothing new to see here. As Hutchison spokeswoman Jen Baker told me yesterday, Hutchison intends to leave the Senate once the fights over federal health care and cap-and-trade environmental policy are settled. That's exactly what Hutchison told the Texas Federation of Women earlier this year. And exactly what she told us earlier this week."

In addition, numerous reports from people close to Senator Hutchison have independently called us to say the Senator will resign "win, lose or draw" right after the March 2, gubernatorial primary.  If that happens this special election could happen as early as May.

Yesterday we saw a poll that shows Kay Bailey Hutchison failing to gain on Rick Perry, despite an apparently better debate.  Instead, Debra Medina picks off supporters from both of them.  That means chaos, and chaos might just increase Kay Bailey Hutchison's ineffectiveness and reasons to resign.

If and when she does resign, John Sharp is still zoned in.  National Democrats are worried about a Senate campaign in Massachusetts where their candidate, Martha Coakley, has been criticized for not being zoned in.  Texas Democrats the most focused in the country?  Perhaps.

58 Days

by: Margaret Gomez

Mon Jan 04, 2010 at 10:43 AM CST

Today is the filing deadline for the Democratic Primary, and, with only 58 days until Election Day, I am proud of the progress my campaign has made so far.

I've received endorsements from six public safety associations, including the state's largest, the Combined Law Enforcement Association of Texas (CLEAT). I am humbled to have earned the support of CLEAT once again, as well as the Travis County Sheriffs Officers Association, Travis County Sheriffs Law Enforcement Association, Austin/Travis County EMS Employee Association, Austin Police Association, and the Travis County Firefighters Association.

John Sharp Announces Support from Texas Democratic State Senators

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Mon Dec 14, 2009 at 02:30 PM CST

Wendy Davis of Fort Worth
Mario Gallegos, Jr. of Houston
Juan 'Chuy' Hinojosa of McAllen
Eddie Lucio, Jr. of Brownsville
Eliot Shapleigh of El Paso
Carlos Uresti of San Antonio
Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio
Kirk Watson of Austin
Royce West of Dallas
John Whitmire of Houston
Judith Zaffirini of Laredo

Rodney Ellis of Houston couldn't be reached.

Of course, at this point, is there news here? Even when Bill White was contesting John Sharp for the nonexistent U.S. Senate primary, the back and forth was all a bit silly because I've long held the belief that Hutschison was never going to resign, which so far has kept becoming more and more true. And while the Sharp campaign I'm sure was thrilled (along with many Democratic primary voters) that Bill White was moving to the Governor's race, what exactly has it won?

The point of releasing a slate of the state senators' endorsements is to position yourself against any other latecomers that might want to get into your race. But if in the end, there isn't a race to get into, what does it matter? If there is no resignation and there is no race, then we're assuming that Sharp is running for 3 years until 2012, and that all of these endorsements are going to stick all the way until then, and that no one else is going to get in and change the calculus for the endorsers?

I don't dislike Sharp (I actually like his brand of old school politics) and if helps them to have my personal endorsement, sure, fine, you've got it. But that's the point- what difference does it make if you know it's being given in a nonexistent primary for a nonexistent election? Other than policy releases or attacks on other potential candidates for the nonexistent election, I'm not sure Burnt Orange Report really has a place to write about any more endorsements on the Democratic side of this "race" until there is a reasonable expectation there is a race once more.

Am I wrong? I'd be more than interested in hearing from readers on this one in the comments.

Why Are Our Best Players Potential Benchwarmers?

by: Michael Hurta

Wed Nov 18, 2009 at 06:23 AM CST

Yah, I know she said, "Let me also be crystal clear about one thing. I will be resigning this Senate seat."  But I thought she was crystal clear about resigning to run for governor, and I think some other Texans thought she was crystal clear about limiting herself to two terms.  As Kuff insists so clearly, "Seriously, she's changed her story about when or if she'll resign more often than most people change clothes. I say her story will change again, and there's no evidence to suggest otherwise."

Even if you believe the Senator, she says she will wait until the Senate has finished considering Health Care Reform and Cap and Trade legislation.  It might very well be a while before we see that latter item on the top of the Senate docket.  We have to finish Health Care first, and it looks like financial regulation might follow as the Senate's next priority.  By then, President Obama might be in a hard push for Deficit Reduction.  There's no telling where Cap and Trade fits in.

But mainly, I just don't believer her.

So, what's the apparently likely scenario now?  Bill White and John Sharp will wait, sitting on the bench until 2011 or even 2012.  We could really use one of these men atop our 2010 ticket, though.  John Sharp may be past his political prime, but he is the only active Democratic politician who has held statewide office in Texas.  And Bill White is already raising money like a very legitimate gubernatorial contender, despite the contribution limits of federal campaigns.    These two details alone make both men much better candidates than Tom Schieffer, Hank Gilbert, or Farouk Shami.

We're playing our B team out there.  At best.

Both White and Sharp have legitimately good reasons to run for the U.S. Senate, but they can easily transform their reasoning into justifications for a run at the Governor's Mansion.  I'll outline some of the basic ideas for them.

John Sharp
Sharp, despite a political career confined to the state level, wants to make a difference for the national economy and the national budget.  He has stated this as primary reasoning multiple times.  

His issues page declares the following:

Since Congress lacks the political will to cut spending, even when it knows our future prosperity depends on it, it's time to force them to reduce the deficit and safeguard vital public services like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. I have so little faith in both parties in the Congress that I believe this is the only solution.

John Sharp hopes to force Congress into action as 1 of 535 Congresspersons?  Additionally, he wants to accomplish this while being the federal-government new guy of the 535, particularly as a new guy who distrusts the other 534?  That sounds a bit far-fetched.

Instead, Sharp could take a page from Rick Perry's Influencing-National-Politics Playbook.  Perry has used his job as the ultimate bully pulpit in national debates.  The Texas Governor has particular creditability because Texas' energy industry and vibrant cities have held the state a bit higher than others during the economic downturn.  Not that the Texas Governor can ever claim lone responsibility for the state's economy, but that doesn't matter to the talking heads on TV.

Unfortunately for Mr. Perry, he's made some crazy talk that has lessened his influence with true policy-makers.  And he has that R next to his name, which doesn't appeal to the good people governing the country.  As Governor, Sharp could have the same advantages as Perry and more.  Sharp has a D next to his name and he speaks sensibly.  He can use the Texas Governor's office as a very effective podium to help this country reduce its budget deficit.

Speaking of budget deficits, the state might need help avoiding one of its own in 2011.  Texas would find John Sharp's leadership on the issue quite useful in Austin.

Bill White
If I had to write the first two lines on Bill White's resume, the first would be "Mayor of Houston," but the second might be "energy expert."  That's what got him the job of Deputy Secretary of Energy with President Clinton.  There, he probably learned the amazing capacity of the federal government to affect climate change and energy usage in America.  It makes since he would want to go to the Senate, where the laws are really made, to influence our energy future.  With no set date for Cap and Trade in the Senate, he could, in theory, arrive in time for that debate, too.

But much of the country is making significant strides regarding energy efficiency and reform.  Cap and Trade, like Health Care Reform, passed through the House of Representatives.  Climate Change legislation has also found popularity in localities and other states in the country.

The larger problem, therefore, might not be in the Senate.  White should realize that the biggest problem might reside right here in the "Coal Star State."

Polluters' draw to Texas could become hampered by national legislation imposing regulation on all the states, but the Texas government, as it stands now, will seek out every loophole to make Texas as friendly as possible for its oil and coal industries.  The very easy start of a remedy is a caring governor to appoint quality members to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.  The Governor also stands in an ideal position to push for further legislation to allow Texas an environmental quality worthy of its great countryside and terrain.

As an historic energy leader, Texas should rush to the forefront of clean energy.  As Governor, White could push through innovative energy legislation that wouldn't see the light of day in the Senate's halls.  The whole country, however, would have its eyes upon Governor White, because if we can find solutions to climate change in Texas, we can find them anywhere.  

Conclusion
It would be a shame if Kay Bailey Hutchison changes her mind again, runs for reelection in 2012, and both these Democrats lose their personal potential from this year.  I fear that if John Sharp doesn't find a 2010 election for himself, he will only continue to decline politically.  I fear that a Bill White wait until '12 game would fail to take advantage of his high-water political capital.

There still may very well be an election in 2010.  Jason Embry has talked about a November date, but I would hate to bet my two biggest pieces on such a hypothetical.

We may still need one of them in a 2010 Senate race, but I hope they at least take the time to sit down and consider their other options.  In a change of events such as Kay Bailey Hutchison's recent announcement, I'd rather my politicians make clear efforts to consider the new obstacles and opportunities rather than move forward gung-ho to a destination shrouded in mystery.

TX-Sen: John Sharp Garners First College Democrats Endorsement

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Nov 17, 2009 at 08:00 PM CST

"John Sharp's campaign is all about us," said Laura Barry, president of the Stephen F. Austin Young Democrats in Nacogdoches.

"John has our pledge to work just as hard as he is to give Texas a fresh voice in Washington," added Ms. Barry, who also serves as the political director of the Texas College Democrats, which has 34 chapters across the state. "He has the vision to lead us into the future - and we will be there with him every step of the way."

It is reasonable to note the timing of the endorsement as the University Democrats in Austin are set to vote on endorsing in the U.S. Senate primary as it stands this Thursday, a day after their major BLUEPrint for Texas fundraiser. The UT-Austin University Democrats were the 2008 College Democrats of American "Chapter of the Year" and are the largest College Democrats chapter in the nation with the activism to match.

+ DISTRIBUTING 42,000+ voter registration cards in key neighborhoods!

+ REGISTERING 11,565 students to vote TOTAL (Including 5,700+ in one day)!

+ KNOCKING on 40,000+ doors statewide for key candidates!

+ CALLING 12,233 voters on behalf of Texas Democrats!

+ MOBILIZING 18,000 students to early vote (a UT-Austin record)!

We'll be reporting Thursday night whether John Sharp will pick up a second College Democrats chapter's endorsement, or if Bill White will overpower Sharp's endorsement and earn the support of the arguably the biggest youth endorsement possible in Texas.

Update: It appears from a comment by one of the University Democrats that the club has cancelled the U.S. Senate endorsement meeting. No work yet on the reason, though it's reasonable to assume the recent pronouncements by Sen. Hutchison on her new belayed resignation timeline have cancelled the urgency to hold an endorsement meeting before the students are gone on break until late January. I expect it will be moved to the regular joint pre-primary endorsement meeting with the Central Austin Democrats held annually after the filing period.  

Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert Refuses to Rule Out Senate Run

by: Todd Hill

Sun Nov 15, 2009 at 09:52 AM CST

It took three times for Brad Watson and Gromer Jeffer's with WFAA's Inside Politics to pull an answer from Leppert that didn't have your stomach queasy from all the political spin:

Opportunities and obstacles come up and if they come up I will deal with them.  I am very happy with what I'm doing right now.  We are making great progress in the City of Dallas and I think people recognize that. If the opportunity comes up then I'll look at it.

Clearly Leppert is making some of the same calculated assumptions that Mayor Bill White is making.  Leppert is a popular Republican mayor of a major metropolitan county that has trended heavily Democratic since 2006.  Leppert recently muscled through a sweeping Ethics reform package in the wake of former councilman Don Hill's corruption trial--the same corruption charges that now engulf State Representative Terri Hodge.  

Leppert has momentum, and certainly has potential, to shave off quite a few votes in his favor in the North Texas region where his name identification is high.  In a special election race with very low turnout numbers that could be just enough to pull him into a runoff.  It is the same calculations the White campaign is making: a popular mayor from a major metropolitan area that has trended blue in the last few election cycles.  Shave off enough votes in favor of Mayor White in a low turnout special election and it should be enough to catapult him into a runoff.

But again, all of these calculations are based on whether or not Kay "Will she or Won't she" Hutchison eventually resign her senate seat and the answer, as she indicated on Friday, is she will not.  Based on this past week's Rasmussen poll showing KBH down 11 points to Perry less than four months away from a GOP primary election is a terrible spot to be in.  However, it is indicative of the terrible campaign she has run for governor as well.  

It may be intriguing for Leppert to consider a special election run, and I do believe he is giving it very serious thought, but he is a smart enough politician to know that I'm staying right where I am.  Hutchison is the most deceptive, stick my finger in the air to figure out which way the political winds are blowing, type politician that we've ever seen.  Leppert will position himself to launch a campaign should the opportunity arise, but ultimately it will be for nothing because Hutchison won't resign.  

Kay Bailey Hutchison Not to Resign Until After March Primary

by: Michael Hurta

Fri Nov 13, 2009 at 04:30 PM CST

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is challenging Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary, plans to announce Saturday that she won't resign her Senate seat until after the March primaries are over.

Campaign officials provided The Associated Press a copy of her prepared speech to Republican women in Galveston on Saturday.

In it, Hutchison will say she is stepping down in 2010 regardless of who wins the Republican primary for govenor.

But she says there are too many important issues facing Congress for her to quit this fall as she had planned.

The senator says in the written speech that she "will be resigning this Senate seat" next year.  "Make no mistake, this is going to happen," Hutchison plans to say.

Although this original report states that the announcement will come in Hutchison's speech tomorrow, the Texas Tribune reports that she already "began calling other Republicans Friday afternoon to tell them to make other plans."

This obviously changes the dynamics of the Gubernatorial race.  It changes the way she will campaign, as it will be shrouded in a sort of cowardliness.  There is also a very good chance it will push Bill White and/or John Sharp into the race for Governor, even if she plans on resigning no matter the outcome of the primary.  I don't think her word on resignation can really be trusted anymore.

We will keep you updated as we get more info.

UPDATE: Both the Sharp camp and the White camp reiterate that they are still running for Senate.

John Sharp stated, "I said when I got into this process last December that I would be a candidate when the seat becomes available, whether that is in 2012 or anytime before then.  I'm campaigning full time and will continue to."  

White spokeswoman Katy Bacon gave me the blunt statement, "Bill is running for the U.S. Senate regardless of when this election takes place."

I prodded, and Katy insisted that yes, that even means 2012.

Also, according to the Statesman, Senator Hutchison will state in her speech that not only is she waiting for the Health Care fight to end but also for Cap and Trade to conclude.

UPDATE 2: Via an @TexasTribune tweet, we learn that a Hutchison campaign spokesperson said, "I never envision a situation where she would lose the GOP primary."

I responded by laughing, because this campaign surely has been quite jokey so far.  If she does pull of a surprise to come back and beat Perry, though, she might face Hank Gilbert or Tom Schieffer.

Gilbert's website, The Scoop quickly had a comment on this news:

Naturally, Kay's Magic 8 Ball was predicting this (and many other things) weeks ago.

Hutchison wants to have it both ways. This will cause a lot of issues in the overall Republican field-and could create a lot more contested primaries up and down the ballot.

When asked, Tom Schieffer's campaign declined to comment.

UPDATE 3: For a direct quote from Hank Gilbert, here is his statement:

Anyone who says they are shocked by her announcement hasn't followed the lengthy trail of broken promises she's left in her wake, starting with her promise to serve only two terms. She is an unreliable and undependable public servant who dodges and weaves as it suits her political ambitions. Senator Hutchison has left her supporters and contributors holding the bag.

TX-Sen: Rumors of Bill White Switching Races Continue

by: David Mauro

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 05:13 PM CST

The rumors about Houston Mayor and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bill White switching to the Governor's race circulated again this week, and the White camapign denied them (again). With Kay Bailey Hutchison appearing to once again be waffling on her decision to resign from the Senate, some have thought White would rather jump to the governor's race than wait until 2012. 

Ross Ramsay's Texas Tribune article identified John Sharp and Rick Perry as the two pushing the rumor, which if true certainly does not put Sharp, the former Texas Comptroller and current Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, in very good company.

BOR's Todd Hill wrote in August that Texas Democrats should "get off Bill White's back and get on John Sharp's" when it came to deciding if one of the two leading Democrats would switch races.

I think Sharp is better qualified, and in a better position politically, to change the dynamics completely of the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Sharp's campaign doesn't appear to be raising the funds necessary, outside of personal loans, to remain competitive in a potential U.S. senate race.  I suspect that is because those donors who thought Mayor White would run for governor versus the United States Senate suddenly found themselves choosing between Sharp and White.  Many people, including myself, believe that Bill White is the brightest star we have in the Democratic Party, and donors and grassroots supporters do too.  Those who committed to Sharp assuming White would run for governor suddenly switched allegiances upon his announcement that he would run in an eventual special election senate race.  White's fundraising numbers prove that is the case.  That doesn't mean those donors don't support Sharp, they just don't support him in a head to head race with Bill White.

In this race without an election date, not much has changed since August, although White's financial advantage over Sharp has only widened.

Sharp came extremely close to defeating Rick Perry in 1998. Since then Perry has gone form being George W. Bush's Lt. Gov. to becoming one of the most unpopular governors in Texas history. Despite Perry and Sharp's past collaboration on school finance, if he decided to switch to the governor's race, he would probably be the favorite versus Perry. Democrats would have a strong candidate for governor and Bill White's huge fundraising lead would stay in the Senate race, where he gives Texas Democrats their best chance to win a Senate seat in years.

TX-Sen: John Sharp Loans Campaign More Than $500K of $600K Total Raised

by: David Mauro

Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 04:57 PM CDT

	Other Peoples' Money	Loans from Candidate	Contributions from Candidate	Total Raised	Expenditures
White:	$1,116,813	$0	$414,399	$1,549,941	$703,108
Sharp:	$107,204	$504,514	$0	$615,210	$170,190

In actual contributions from campaign supporters, White outraised Sharp by over 10 to 1.  

Both candidates contributed to their own campaigns: Sharp loaned himself money, while White contributed the $414,399 as part of a donor-matching program during the last three days week of the quarter. White and his wife Andrea matched donations that included $200,000 in online giving through ActBlue and the campaign website. That $200,000 raised online by White in the last three days week of the quarter is more than Sharp raised from all of his donors throughout the three months of the quarter.  

It's also interesting to compare these numbers to the candidates' expenses. White is running a full state-wide campaign with organizers and physical office space in most regions of the state. However, he more than raised enough to cover his significant expenses. On the other hand, the Sharp campaign spent more money in Q3 than it took in from outside contributions.

With the DSCC openly encouraging White, Sharp may begin to feel more pressure to switch to another race where Democrats desperately need a strong candidate.  Without the FEC limits of $2400 per person, Sharp would likely find it easier to raise money closer to the levels he did as Comptroller. Of course, Sharp has given no public indication that he is considering switching races.