(D) Anthony A. DiNovo 1,642 22.43%
(R) John Gorman 116 1.58% (R) Mike O'Day 3,508 47.92%
(R) Randy Weber 2,054 28.06%
Total votes: 7320
It looks like the prediction from the previous post was nearly right on. Here's the difference from that prediction (though the total vote cast was near the low end that people thought). I feel as if there was 1000 more votes, DiNovo would probably be in that runoff with O'Day.
Still, most importantly, we'd like to thank Sally Smith, Tendra, and Tammy (campaign manager) plus Brian Pendleton and the TDP staff that came down for all their hard work and setting us bloggers up down here. DiNovo really performed well on election day and the late surge did it's work- it just wasn't quite enough to make it over the line. Still, this district is quickly changing and growing in population- a population change that is shifting Democratic. DiNovo did receive 40% of the vote on Election Day in an environment where it was difficult to campaign (against a deceased incumbent).
We'll be back. And soon enough, we'll take this one, too.
I've run a table of numbers in an attempt to try to predict how the last results could end up. Of course, given that the final half of Brazoria is not likely to be *exactly* the same as the first half, this can easily be off. But I have nothing else to report so here goes.
If Brazoria comes in at the same levels and percentages, this is what the following would be.
If that were true, we'd be looking at a runoff but between two Republicans. Now, It is my gut feeling that the remaining boxes are from Pearland where there are more votes and turnout was heavier. This prediction only gets us to 7200 voters which I believe is lower than the total that will be there.
While we wait for the last half of Brazoria to come in, we can look at how the results shifted on election day.
So far in Brazoria, the Election day votes by themselves are tracking as follows with the Early vote subset in (). I've updated these now that all the results are in with the final shift in both counties. -KT
Big news out from Matagorda. Election Day totals came in, pushing DiNovo to 2nd place in the total vote from that county, and forcing the overall vote into a much better position. Update: It seems that half of Brazoria has reported as well into the totals listed here. So with half of Brazoria out, we have O'Day just over 50% but falling.
DiNovo ended up with near 33% of the Matagorda vote and O'Day falling to 42% of the total. Weber fell to 3rd with only 23% of the county vote.
Overall, O'Day is now just barely over 50%. In addition, DiNovo has moved forward to within 4% points of being in a runoff. The math is there and DiNovo is doing much better on Election Day. The question is, will there be enough in Brazoria to a) force O'Day under 50% which I see as quite possible and b) enough to get DiNovo over Weber and into that runoff.
A can happen without B but I see it being much harder for B to happen without A. Of course, B happening without A doesn't really mean much because while DiNovo would be 2nd, O'Day would have over 50% and the election is over.
Again, the SOS has the Weber and O'Day names backwards so here is the Early Vote from Matagorda where it appears Weber did win and DiNovo did slightly better.
NOTE: Seeing as the SOS can't get their tables right, it is entirely possible that O'Day actually won Matagorda as well. There is no county website to verify that with like Brazoria. Either way, the DiNovo and Gorman numbers are right.
(D) Anthony A. DiNovo 95 22.04%
(R) John Gorman 6 1.39% (R) Mike O'Day 210 48.72%
(R) Randy Weber 120 27.84%
8.3% Turnout for Matagorda County
Since we have nothing else to report yet, we'll take this chance to point out that BOR is again leading Harvey Kronberg in coverage of this race, and also in pointing out that the SOS results were reported incorrectly first. =) (Love you Harvey).
Update: The SOS is updating their tables. It appears that O'Day may have indeed won Matagorda County as well, which would be in line with all the candidate's performance in Brazoria.
If you are looking for results tonight, we'll be reporting them here on BOR hopefully. If for some reason we don't have Internet access or my other writers are away, here's where you can look to find results.
I've finally had a change to get ahold of some Internet access out here to give everyone a short update on what has been going on.
As Matt mentioned earlier, turnout has been light. Matagorda County only cast 436 Early Votes total, even though around 90% of ID'd Democratic Primary voters are from there. This is due in part, though, by the fact that there was only one voting location for the entire county for EV last week. The DiNovo campaign has apparently been working on calling and contacting folks out there to push them to vote on Election Day instead.
In Brazoria County, home to fast growing Pearland, insterest seems to have been higher. (All 4 candidates are from this part of the district.) Through last Thursday, 2,223 voters had come out to vote here. My guess is there was about 3,000 when you include Friday. Over half of that is coming from East Pearland, with Alvin following in second before West Pearland in early vote showing. From what the person I'm staying with says, East Pearland is more Republican turf, but to note, it used to be the only early voting site until this year so many people aren't used to voting on the other side of town.
Of the candidates, John Gorman has the least number of signs up and apparently hasn't been campaigning all that much. (Check out his website linked above. The image has "December XXth whrer the election date should be on it.)
Randy Weber could be said as trying to go hard-right in the race from what I've seen of his direct mail, one of which features a giant picture of 'suspicious Mexicans' paddling an inflatable raft across a river and is all about Immigration.
Weber has been doing a lot of driving, trying to make events in Matagorda and Brazoria counties.
"We've also been calling our voters and doing mail-outs," Weber said. "It's going to come down to turnout and how many voters show up to vote."
Mike O'Day, who has a hardware store down the street, is the prime challenger and if this race is in a runoff it's likely it will be him and DiNovo. Through supposedly the moderate, you wouldn't know it for the campaign lit and local activities.
O'Day's campaign staff has been putting in 13 to 14 hours a day making calls and attending community events, he said. The high numbers of the east Pearland location are a good indication that some voters are paying attention, he said.
Anthony DiNovo's campaign has really kicked up in the last weeks. Volunteers have been making calls from early on until about 7-8 each day. Mostly everything that can be blockwalked has. It's true that voters are pretty clueless about there being a race going on, but in the last day, that seems to have changed. Many voters reported getting multiple contacts today about the race and those that are contacted by phone or door appear very receptive to voting tomorrow.
I spent the morning walking in Pearland's Precinct 63 which actually broke for Chris Bell. I had a higher than average rate of getting people at home. Within this one precinct, there was Democrats of two stripes- suburban upper class voters of mixed ethnicity and then a street of Hispanic mobile homes. One funny story from that part of town was reading the walk list notation of "moved". When we got to the property that was true- the mobile home was literally gone, with nothing but a brown patch of dirt and a lonely set of stairs in the yard.
During the afternoon I called voters with Martha about about 7 other folks at the Democratic Party HQ. Last night we ran into another blogger Hal of HalfEmpty, who was out here doing a lot of work. You should really read this and this post of his to get a better idea of what he's been seeing out here on the ground. The bloggers have really chipped in on this one and Tammy and the campaign staff, most all doing this for free, have been working harder than you can imagine trying to get this over the edge.
My ballpark estimate (which could vary based on tomorrow's chance of rain) is about 8400 votes total to be cast in this election. It's winnable, could go to a run-off (sorry Hal and Tammy), and in any case is something worthwhile to be a part of. Come down to help if you are in the area or call from home.
P.S. A big Thank You to Zada True-Courage for helping to pay over half my ticket cost after seeing this post from Sunday! You're the best!
Campaign HQ
The address for the Pearland HQ 3536 Broadway Pearland, TX 77581 The phone #281 412-0990
The Eight Day Out Finance Report has been released for the candidates running in next Tuesday's special election for HD-29. The race features 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat.
Total Contributions:
Michael O'Day $100,122.95
Anthony DiNovo $17,795.00
Randy Weber $14,897.58
John Gorman $0.00
Total Expenditures:
Michael O'Day $90,744.59
Randy Weber $42,039.61
Anthony DiNovo $24,455.49
John Gorman $2,515.71
Cash On Hand:
Anthony DiNovo $12,541.83
Randy Weber $11,463.53
Michael O'Day $2,123.41
John Gorman $0.00
O'Day seems to be taking this race very seriously, and would now be viewed as the front runner of the 3 Republicans (the other two being Gorman and Weber). DiNovo also faces an uphill battle for the Pearland area district. But the candidate with the most money does not always win the race. More money certainly doesn't hurt though!
Early voting ends tomorrow in the HD-29 election, with the election date set for Tuesday Dec. 19th.
We need a doctor in the House! Let's put one more Democrat in the Texas Legislature. You can still help Dr. DiNovo by contributing to his campaign or making phone calls to voters at TrueBlueAction.
