Last night the Mid-Cities Democrats hosted an Iowa caucus watch party where over 60 people came to show their support for our Democratic candidates. At one point it was standing room only. The ABC affiliate, WFAA Channel 8 here in DFW, came and did a story along with a live shot for their 10pm newscast. The story is not available on their website at this time.
We held a mock vote of the attendees during the evening which yielded the following results: (not everyone participated in the vote and it is far from scientific)
Hillary Clinton- 18 votes or 36 percent
Barack Obama- 15 votes or 30 percent
John Edwards- 13 votes or 26 percent
Al Gore- 1 vote or 2 percent
Dennis Kucinich- 1 vote or 2 percent
Joe Biden- 1 vote or 2 percent
"Undecided" 1 vote or 2 percent
Our Hillary supporters were out in force last night, which reflects in the overall vote total above, but there was a great deal of enthusiastic support for both Obama and Edwards.
From my own observations, the Hillary Clinton supporters reflected most of our more seasoned and veteran Democrats with some exceptions of course. The Barack Obama supporters represented less seasoned and more new Democrats to the process. John Edwards was a pretty good mix of all of the above.
A number of people have asked me where I personally stand in the Presidential race and what I think will happen in Iowa tomorrow. I figure that the day before the caucuses is good enough of a reason to finally put down some thoughts.
While the 2003-2004 primary season was what got me energized into politics, I will be honest in saying that the 2008 field, while fun to watch, has not engaged me in the least. That's due in part to working at ActBlue through October where I couldn't take sides in the primary, so I just did my job and didn't really think about it. But even so, and over the last two months, I can't say that I've been swept up in any emotional torrent for any of the candidates. While Chris Dodd at times has held some degree of interest for me because of his leadership in the campaign season, he's never been a legitimate choice of candidate for me to settle on, as much as I like him and his staff.
So personally? I'm somewhere between Obama and Edwards. Does it matter that I decide right now? No. Texas isn't starting early voting for over another month from now, after the Feb 5th bonanza. While I've become one of those undecided voters that I generally dislike, we are talking about a primary here where it's not a battle between good and evil- just good and better.
So that brings us to Iowa.
What do I think? Well, I was there on the ground in 2004. (I was also in New Hampshire in 2004 as well as last week where I ran into Dennis Kucinich. Yes, he is that short and his ears are that pointy). But do I have any special insight this year other than a gut feeling and having read all the same analysis that everyone else has?
No. But I'll share my thoughts anyways.
I don't think Iowa will matter at all. But if it does, I think it will decide the election.
After all the campaigning, the money, the ads, the people and beyond... I will not be shocked at all to find out that the result of Iowa is more or less a three way tie where the candidates are separated by no more than 4-7% points resulting in a big whole lot of nothing going into New Hampshire.
In fact, I'd rather it turn out that way as I can't think of a better way to express my distaste for the current primary calendar. I can't express the stupidity of allowing a lilly-white dinky state with a caucus system that produces abysmal turnout and allocates delegates to current candidates based on an election 4 years ago (sound familiar?) to have such undue influence on picking our nominee.
But back to my original thought. I think Iowa's going to be a wash. There is already a media narrative prepared for it and that's what the polling says, too. I'm sure the media would love it- a long nomination season is better for their bottom line and in all honesty, it's better for our democracy as well.
For what it's worth, I'll predict an Obama, Edwards, Clinton finish in Iowa in that order. If it's close, it won't matter, if it's just large enough, Obama powerhouses to New Hampshire and the dominos start to fall. If Edwards slips into first, then New Hampshire will be the new Iowa with a three way clusterfuck of a race for the next 5 days.
So whatever your pleasure, if you are in Austin Thursday night, come out to THE place to watch the caucus results as Democracy for Texas hosts the city's biggest caucus watching party in town at Scholz's at 1607 San Jacinto starting at 6:30 PM. Texans for Obama and Texans for John Edwards are joining us there tomorrow night to watch the results as they come in but by no means does that mean you shouldn't show up if you support someone else or are undecided like me. And as Glen notes in the comments, you can help stuff voter registration packets while you watch!
Also to note, BOR user dmayeux will be in Iowa and possibly contributing to the front page with any on the ground reports he might file. Additionally, I've garnered media credentials for BOR so that we have access to the internal Iowa Democratic Caucus realtime results so hopefully we'll be able to keep everyone entertained Thursday night no matter where you are watching from in Texas.
I do not live in Texas and haven't since May 2001. But I still have a few friends left in my beloved Bluebonnet and Paint wildflowers state. There's one in particular who did the Jerry Jeff Walker thing: moved from NY to Texas and never left. And that was thirty years ago. I met him when I was in grad school at North Texas State (now UNT). He works in the DFW metroplex.
Recently, I e-mailed this buddy with a good Shrub joke. For those who are interested in the joke, you can read it at my blog, Benny's World. He replied with pleasantries and asked me how things were going for my POTUS candidate, John Edwards.
Below is the latest installment of the Texas Primary Tracking Polls conducted by IVR Polls commissioned on behalf of Burnt Orange Report. IVR Polls correctly predicted the TX-10 race within a margin of 1 point in 2006.
While Clinton begins to stall nationally, Hillary is the first candidate to break the 50% mark in Texas. I have been saying this entire cycle that her ceiling was around 45%, but her total domination of the field is surprising.
Obama sits in a distant second at close to 17% and Edwards is statistically tied with Richardson with 11.4% and 9.5% respectively.
Clinton leads among all gender and race except African American voters who skew towards Obama by 19%.
In this poll we also added some issue-oriented questions in order to keep you interest. Among those polled a surprising 89% want either a gradual or rapid withdraw of troops from Iraq.
On top of that IRV polls had people ranking issues in order of priority for Democratic voters-- the economy is at the forefront of voters minds followed by healthcare, the war in Iraq, global warming, terrorism issues, and finally illegal immigration. Respondents were asked to rank issues highest to lowest (scale of 1 to 9).
Clinton may have gotten tripped up, but she argues that we've got to do something. Clinton dislikes the idea that there's a "gotcha" politics. Edwards and Obama pipe in...and truthfully, I couldn't figure out what the hell Clinton said. I think she did get tripped up by saying two separate things. Interesting moment...and watch, this will be a big lead in all the articles about the debate tomorrow.
Well, it was. Not because I said so, but because it was so obvious of a stumble from someone we are used to see as perfect (more on that in a second). Edwards, in turn, made this cool video called "the Politics of Parsing" which highlights some of Clinton's points:
So what actually happened after the debate? Clinton's camp has attempted to change the conversation, lamenting the fact that six men were beating up on one woman at the debate (a discussion of the gender card at MyDD).
In my opinion, what we actually saw was something akin to Kobe Bryant having a bad shooting night. Hillary has dominated each and every debate to date -- and for the first time, she looked vulnerable. Is that fair to Clinton? Is she actually vulnerable? I'd say probably not on both counts -- at least not based on just this one debate. For the same reason that it's really hard to get mad at someone who comes through every game for having one bad night, I think jumping on Clinton and trying to say the race is wide open is a stretch. If this same thing happens a couple more times, then maybe.
What could have more lasting damage is what Edwards is trying to get through in his spot: the art of political parsing. Edwards and Obama's campaigns are both built on the idea that we need to end "politics as usual" and that Hillary is the epitome of "politics as usual." Anyone who watches the video above would have to agree -- most politicians have mastered the art of double-talk, and it's what drives most voters crazy.
Clinton didn't lose the debate, but she opened a door she could have slammed. And considering how close it looks like it will be in Iowa, any opportunity lost is a big one.
Tonight, after President Bush makes yet another argument for continuing the war in Iraq, John Edwards will speak directly to the American people in a nationwide address on MSNBC.
Our campaign has bought airtime on MSNBC immediately following the President's address at 9 p.m., and John Edwards will challenge the President's remarks with a strong call to the nation to end the war now.
Edwards is the only front-running candidate to unequivocally call for an immediate withdrawal of all the troops.
The difference between Edwards, Obama, and Clinton? I am going to unashamedly quote directly from Edwards' website:
"My position has been very clear. For over a year, I have called for an immediate withdrawal of 40-50,000 troops--not by next summer, not in the near future, but today--to jumpstart the comprehensive political solution that will end the violence in Iraq and will allow a complete withdrawal of all combat troops within 9 to 10 months. Some, like Senator Obama, have said we should only `begin' to end this war now. Senator Obama would withdraw only 1-2 combat brigades a month between now and the end of next year, which for the next several months could essentially mimic the president's own plans to withdraw 30,000 troops by next summer.
"Taking credit for this gradual withdrawal is like taking credit for gravity. These 30,000 troops would have to be withdrawn anyway, unless the president extended tours to an unconscionable 18 months.
"Enough is enough. We don't need to `begin' to end the war now. What we need to do now is actually end the war. This is about right and wrong. Our young men and women are dying every day for a failed policy. Every member of Congress who believes this war must end, from Senators Obama and Clinton to Senator Warner, has a moral responsibility to use every tool available to them, including a filibuster, to force the president to change course. Congress must stand firm and say: No timetable, no funding. No excuses."
Democratic leaders in Congress have decided to shift course and pursue modest bipartisan measures to alter U.S. military strategy in Iraq, hoping to use incremental changes instead of aggressive legislation to break the grip Republicans have held over the direction of war policy.
We didn't elect a Democratic majority so they could sit on their hands. Watch John Edwards tonight, read the responses from Obama and Clinton tomorrow, and see which candidate matches your beliefs on Iraq.
I am proud to report that the Texas Democratic Party's ePrimary Poll has been a huge success. Because of your help spreading the word to our fellow Democrats, in just five short days, over 7,200 Texas Democrats have cast their vote for President!
That's over five times the number of Texas Republicans who cast their vote in last weekend's exclusive Straw Poll. And we're not done yet! With one more day left to vote, all Texas Democrats still have a chance to make their voices heard in the next presidential election.
The enormous participation in the TDP ePrimary Poll is evidence of a Democratic Party on the rise in the Lone Star State. While Texas Republicans had only third-string candidates and embarrassingly low turnout at their VIP-only Straw Poll last weekend, Democrats from every corner of the state are energized by our Party's strong field of presidential candidates and showing their excitement for 2008 in the ePrimary Poll.
Democrats believe our state and nation are better served when more people participate, and the ePrimary Poll is a way for all Texas Democrats to get involved in the primary process and weigh in as our Party selects a presidential nominee. Tell the country which Democrats you want to see take over the White House!
If you haven't voted in the ePrimary Poll, there's still time. Texas Democrats have until TOMORROW at 11:59pm to cast their vote for any one of our Democratic presidential candidates.
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