Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie released this statement last night:
"I congratulate Chris Bell on running a great campaign in a tough district drawn by Republicans to elect Republicans. In district after district, Democrats have taken on Republicans on their turf and it's never easy - even for a top-notch candidate like Chris who never backs down from a challenge.
Hard-working Texas families are demanding real leadership and an end to cronyism and corruption, and Republicans are running scared. Despite running in a Republican district, Joan Huffman and her fellow partisans had to use every trick in the book to hold this seat. From propping up a bogus candidate, to limiting early voting hours and providing no early voting locations in Democratic parts of the district, to scheduling the election during the busy holiday season, Republicans used every tool available to suppress turnout to their advantage.
Each election cycle, more Texas voters are casting a ballot against failed Republican politics of the past to elect more Texas Democrats because we are ready and willing to reach across party lines to solve important problems. We expect that Democratic trend to continue in 2010, both in SD 17 and across our state.
Chris Bell's statement can be found here and Michael's initial reaction can be found here. Not to become too much of a broken record, but this loss stings. We aren't talking about a huge raw vote loss, we are talking about a small raw vote loss that became a large percentage.
I truly feel like we, the voters and activists of this state, let Chris Bell down. It was absolutely not the other way around.
To echo so many of my friends and colleagues thank you for running and thank you for being such a great Democrat.
We are all disappointed. Obviously. On election day, Chris Bell and Democratic Decoy Stephanie Simmons combined for 53.2% of the vote. Most of us think, probably rightly, that if Simmons was not on that ballot, we would be calling Chris Bell a Senator-elect. Instead, he found himself going to a runoff near Christmas, and sadly, the day of the runoff might have had only minimal effect on the outcome. For practical reasons, I might be changing my voter registration to an Austin address soon, but I stayed with my permanent address for the 2008 elections. This may have been my last vote in SD17 in a significant period of time, and here are my first thoughts.
1. This may be just another race after Election Day that shows one thing: many Democratic voters became complacent with Mr. Obama's victory. This, in part, is a compliment to Barack Obama. His supporters have that much confidence in him. But this also says a lot about the presidency and a lot about Democratic voters. We had control of Congress, and now we won control of the Presidency, what more can we do?
Or so, many probably thought. In Georgia, while Jim Martin might not have stood much of a chance, he still fared significantly worse in his runoff than on election day. This is despite Obama organizers from across the nation flying in to help. The Travis County Democratic Party sent weekend busses to help Chris Bell, but Democrats fared worse tonight, too. I know some people who probably would not have voted tonight had I not given them a call to ask them personally. That says nothing of the campaign Chris ran -- they had been inundated with reminders about the election. The fact is, they thought they had done enough.
2. We may find ourself with a Senator in SD17 who is more conservative than her Republican predecessor. Considering Democrats' gains in the district, that will be a sad thought. I sincerely hope that she doesn't become like John Culberson, because then a lot of Democrats could become doubly screwed.
3. Tom Delay may have had some failures in rewriting state house district lines -- that is, Democrats have been gaining in the House A LOT. But he sure did a good job with the state Senate. It looks like the Democrats' only REAL shot to pick this seat up would have been the lack of a Stephanie Simmons on an election day with Barack Obama. Wendy Davis ran a great campaign, but won without a majority despite the presence of Obama and a non-Democratic decoy. It is looking THAT HARD to make these seats competitive. That's not how democracy is supposed to work, is it?
4. Chris Bell ran a good campaign, but this might be the end of his political career. No, he's still not the best campaigner out there. Some people, pointing to his other losses in his career, will say that he's just a bad candidate. That's not true. He ran well this time around, and I sincerely appreciate it.
Unfortunately, I don't know where he would go from here. It's his second political loss in a row, and voters might want to try someone else if he runs again. But I really hope he finds one way or another to stay involved. He was always a good public servant, and I would like it to stay that way, if possible.
5. Will Democrats contest this race hard in 2010? This election was only to finish two years of a term, and Joan Huffman will have to defend her seat pretty soon. One of the largest questions on my mind, concerning this district, is how tough will Democrats pursue it? Will big-name Democrats looking to move up a spot take their chances, or will they wait until the next time around, when a potentially more favorable district map will be in place? If you have any thoughts, feel free to comment.
----
Once again, tonight was a disappointment for all of us. But the campaign was one where I was happy to see Chris Bell fighting for us some more. Thanks, Chris.
Chris Bell DEM 7,024 38.16% 19,104 43.88%
Joan Huffman REP 11,378 61.83% 24,431 56.11%
Precincts Reported 211 of 211
Precincts 100%
7:39 pm (Michael): This is all early vote numbers. I'm not sure if these come from all five counties, though. The Secretary of State's pages for Galveston and Chambers counties do not show any votes in, but the early vote totals from Fort Bend, Harris, and Jefferson do not add up to the totals you see here.
7:45 pm (Michael): It turns out the Secretary of State's site made an error. Instead of Bell winning Harris County early votes 2-1, Huffman did.
8:28 pm (Michael): Galveston County's early votes are in, as well as some of their election day votes. Thanks to Byron LaMasters' comment, I now also understand that Chabmers County doesn't have any voters in the senate district. While Bell has gained a little since the last update, the numbers still do not look very promising.
8:49 pm (Matt): New numbers. Bell is closing the margins but the gap is still very large.
8:51 pm (Matt): Not to be too optimistic, but as of now, with 50% in, Bell is down approximately 3,300 votes. The percentage is about 11%, but the raw vote total is doable. This is my moment of cautious optimism.
8:58 pm (Michael): As more election-day results come in, Bell inches slowly closer to Huffman in this race. But that certainly doesn't mean anything, as a good chunk of the votes that came in are from the completed precincts in Jefferson county, which went about 84% Democratic in November and didn't change much here. Another chunk of votes are from Harris County, where Bell still isn't winning today's votes yet (although it is close.) If he doesn't win Harris County today I don't see how he can win the race. Brazoria County also finished their reporting, but they were expected to be strong for Huffman. She won there about 2-1.
More than half the precincts are in, and Bell still has a lot of ground to make up (at least percentage-wise.)
9:00 (Matt): This thing is over. With 64% of the vote in, there is no way Congressman Bell can catch Huffman. He is now 4,400 votes off and the friendliest boxes all seem to be in. The sad thing is, if it hadn't been for Ron Wilson and the Republican Party putting up a schill Bell probably would have won on November 4.
9:13 (Michael): Where is Fort Bend County? I'm not suggesting that there is much likelihood that Bell can come back out of Fort Bend, but the "Ds" didn't do horrible in those precincts on election day, and for all we know, the GOTV effort could have been heavier there? I think I remember calling a few numbers from that area. But, if there IS any way for him to come back, it would be a miracle from Fort Bend. I doubt it, but once again; I'd just like to see the results. I'm not sure what's taking so long.
9:15 (Michael): Right as I post the above update, Fort Bend starts giving us something to look at. Unfortunately, there's no help. Rather, quite the opposite.
9:51 pm (Michael): Only two precincts remain uncounted. This one's over, folks. I'll give some final comments on the day later tonight.
Today is Election Day in SD-17 where the special election between Chris Bell and Joan Huffman will finish up in 6 hours. We'll be back here tonight to cover the election returns but for right now, here's what you can do in the remaining time.
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Click on your county to find a list of polling places, by precinct and by Zip Code:
Who? Vote for Chris Bell!: It's so very important for you to vote in this election and encourage everyone you know in Senate District 17 to vote for Chris Bell!
(All right folks! You passed the first match and are only $625 away from taking advantage of the full second match by Commissioner Garcia. So if we can scare up the remaining $625 will hit the total $5000 raised for Chris Bell this year via BOR! Last push for dollars for E-Day GOTV! - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
I've just recorded the video below to share some great news with you. As Matt announced this morning, we have received two matches for our Chris Bell fundraising effort for a total match of $2000! Roland Garcia of Houston and County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia of Houston have upped the ante and that means it's really time for you (yes, YOU) to step up for Bell.
There is one more election in 2008. Chris Bell is running for State Senate in District 17, and you can help.
Over the past week we have been raising money for the Congressman. Now Roland Garcia of Houston has made a generous offer, he will match our efforts and donate an additional $1,000 if we can raise $1,000.
Over the past week we have already raised over $600 for Congressman Bell. We are almost there. Now we need your help to maximize our efforts and take advantage of Roland Garcia's generous offer.
UPDATE: Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia is adding to the generosity. She will add another $1,000 to the matching fund. That means if we raise $2,000 Roland Garcia and Sylvia Garcia will match it dollar for dollar. We need to raise $1,300 more take full effect of these generous matches. You will see we changed the goal. In fact, I am donating to Chris again as my holiday present to Texas. Now we need your help, donate today!
Join Chris Bell online as he debates Republican Joan Huffman over at the Houston Chronicle online.
You can visit the Chron blog at noon Tuesday, December 8, as the two Senate candidates for the District 17 state Senate talk to the people of Texas.
You get to write some of the questions. They'll write their answers. The words will be posted on this blog in real time. Call it a keyboard debate. If you'd like, eat lunch as you follow the remarks.
This weekend, Chris Bell earned the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle for the SD-17 runoff election. They had some great words to say.
With the 81st legislative session looming next month in a weakening economic climate, residents of District 17 need an experienced public servant with a firm grasp of spending priorities. With his commitment to bolstering public education, reining in college tuition increases, and controlling skyrocketing insurance premiums, the Chronicle believes that Chris Bell is the best candidate to represent the diverse district in the Texas Senate.
...
Bell, a former news reporter and practicing lawyer, says his previous political experience has educated him about the concerns of Texans. According to Bell, "even before Hurricane Ike hit and even before the meltdown on Wall Street, people here in Texas were starting to feel a sense of insecurity, seeing school districts forced into crisis funding modes." He promises to make education issues a top early priority if elected, while working to create coalitions with members of both parties.
District 17 will benefit from being represented by a veteran elected official with statewide name recognition and a proven commitment to high ethical standards. The Chronicle urges constituents to make a special effort to go to the polls and cast their ballots for Bell.
It's official. I am tired of reading that Republicans have an advantage in low turnout or special elections.
The facts simply do not support the bold claim.
Since 2005, Democrats have won or over performed in nearly every special election in Texas.
The obvious and best example of this is House District 97. In the December, "low turnout" special election, Dan Barrett won. In the November general election, Dan Barrett lost. Barrett saw a 10 point erosion in his numbers while Shelton saw a nearly 8 point gain.
House District 97 Special Election Dan Barrett (D) - 52.18%
Mark M. Shelton (R) - 47.81%
House District 97 General Election Mark M. Shelton (R) - 55.33%
Dan Barrett (D) - 42.75%
Nothing changed. Barrett was out spent in both elections. Shelton was cozy to Craddick in both elections. The only major difference is the turnout numbers. Barrett won the low turnout election, Shelton won the high turnout election.
It may seem like an overstatement, but looking back to 2005 the Republican special election not only appears to be a fallacy, it appears to be nonexistent.
2006 was a very good year for Democrats who ran in supposedly Republican favored special elections.
U. S. Representative District 23 Henry Bonilla (R) - 45.71%
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) - 54.28%
State Representative District 48 Ben Bentzin (R) - 42.38%
Donna Howard (D) - 57.61%
In 2006, Democrats won every special election they ran in with the exception of House District 29. House District 29 hasn't elected a Democrat since 2000 and no Democrat has received more than Tom Uher did in 2002 when he got 42.59% of the vote after 9/11. Before that, Uher represented a totally different district than what is now HD-29. Before the census and redistricting, Uher's district was a democratically favorable district, and since, it has been carved in a way to help elect over 100 Republicans in Texas (as was Tom DeLay's goal at the time).
You have to go back to February 2005 to see a special election contest where a Republican had a definitive win.
State Representative District 121 Paul Silbert (I) - 3.09%
Rose Spector (D) - 33.58%
Glen S. Starnes (R) - 1.38%
Joe Straus (R) - 61.93%
As Kuff wrote in 2005, House District 121 was and continues to be a Republican district. House District 121 in northeast San Antonio and stretched from Olmos Park northeast to Windcrest and north past Loop 1604.
Although Spector lost, she still did better than the Democratic challenger did against Elizabeth Ames Jones in 2000.
State Representative District 121 Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) - 68.24%
Michael G. Zapper (D) - 28.68%
J. (Jay) Moore (L) - 3.07%
While it didn't win us the seat, Democrats saw a nearly 5 point increase during the 2005 special election. In a competitive race, a 5 point swing would be the difference between victory and defeat.
In fact this phenomenon extends beyond urban districts. On February 17, 2004, Democrats were only 3.5 points away from winning the rural Senate District 1 in a special election.
State Senator, District 1 (Unexpired) Kevin Eltife (R) - 51.86%
Paul Sadler (D) - 48.13%
The truth is, Democrats do well in special elections. The reasons differ. The politics and finances differ from year to year and campaign to campaign, but the empirical data remains consistent.
As we move rapidly towards December 16, it is more important than ever for us to elect Congressman Chris Bell. The data shows it will only get harder.
(for more information about the Senate District 17 special election click here.)
