Many thanks to Justin Gillenwater at the Asian American Action Fund Blog for emailing me the original file. I'm sure that soon to be Mayor Parker will be keeping this voicemail for a while.
In the battle between internal campaign polls there now appears to be agreement from both camps in Houston that Annise Parker is leading going into the December 12th runoff election.
Previously, it was leaked that Gene Locke's internal polling showed Annise with a 43%-39% lead and 18% undecided. Today, Parker's campaign released their internal poll showing a similar number of undecided voters, but a larger margin over Locke.
A recent Lake Research Partners survey of likely voters in Houston's upcoming mayoral runoff shows that City Controller Annise Parker holds a strong lead over former City Attorney and lobbyist Gene Locke. In our recent survey, among likely voters with previous participation in past city runoff elections, Parker leads with 47 percent (37 percent strong) to 34 percent for Locke (27 percent strong). A fifth of voters (19 percent) remains
undecided.
Parker holds this large lead even though the poll simulated high turnout among African American voters. The sample was comprised of 54 percent Anglos, 30 percent African Americans, and 12 percent Latinos. Parker remains the best-known and liked candidate in the race and she maintains her lead even under a simulated attack.
Only a substantially negative campaign from Locke can interrupt her momentum. Sixty-seven percent of voters have a favorable impression of Parker and 62 percent think she has done either an excellent (21 percent) or good job (41 percent) as City Controller. Fifty-seven percent of voters hold a favorable view of Locke.
It was bound to start up again at some point- attacks on Houston Mayoral candidate Annise Parker, not based on any critique of her policy positions or campaign plans, but on her being a lesbian. Granted, Annise has been an out elected official for multiple elections and has hardly made the issue anywhere close to central as part of her campaign this year, but that won't stop the anti-gay forces from spinning a web of lies.
Houston Chronicle: A cluster of socially conservative Houstonians is planning a campaign to discourage voters from choosing City Controller Annise Parker in the December mayoral runoff because she is a lesbian, according to multiple ministers and conservatives involved in the effort.
The group is motivated by concerns about a "gay takeover" of City Hall, given that two other candidates in the five remaining City Council races are also openly gay, as well as national interest driven by the possibility that Houston could become the first major U.S. city to elect an openly gay woman.
Another primary concern is that Parker or other elected officials would seek to overturn a 2001 city charter amendment that prohibits the city from providing benefits to the domestic partners of gay and lesbian employees.
"The bottom line is that we didn't pick the battle, she did, when she made her agenda and sexual preference a central part of her campaign," said Dave Welch, executive director of the Houston Area Pastor Council, numbering more than 200 senior pastors in the Greater Houston area. "National gay and lesbian activists see this as a historic opportunity. The reality is that's because they're promoting an agenda which we believe to be contrary to the concerns of the community and destructive to the family."
Eye roll.
The worst part is her opponent Gene Locke is courting the same awful people.
He appeared at the Pastor Council's annual gala last Friday and was encouraged several times by State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, a featured speaker, to stand for conservative values.
Locke has also met with and sought the endorsement of Dr. Steven Hotze, a longtime local kingmaker in conservative politics and author of the Straight Slate in 1985, a coterie of eight City Council candidates he recruited who ran on an anti-gay platform.
Houston deserves better. Our city has a well-earned reputation for tolerance and openness. We don't need inflammatory appeals to folks' worst instincts.
We've been here before. In 1997 a small-minded ballot initiative would have ended the city's affirmative action program that helped minority and women contractors. Mayor Bob Lanier went on the air in an ad that bluntly stated his opposition to a proposal that would "turn back the clock to the days when guys who look like me got all the city's business."
Lanier couldn't have been more clear: Discrimination is just not right.
It was a powerful moment of leadership. The referendum went down to defeat, and news outlets around the country marveled that a "wealthy white developer" had taken the lead on affirmative action.
It's time for another such moment of leadership.
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The rhetoric of people like Steven Hotze and Dave Welch carries a high cost. Their support should not be purchased at the price of bigotry.
So a couple of major events in the Houston Mayor's Race that we have been remiss in noting the last week.
3rd Place Finisher Peter Brown Endorses Annise Parker
In a news conference on the steps of City Hall, Brown today that he would be casting his vote for Parker in the runoff election December 12 and he asked all his supporters, friends and family to do the same.
Brown said: "One candidate stands out with a 12-year proven track record of public service, particularly in terms of efficient, transparent government, the quality of life in our neighborhoods, and fiscal responsibility, especially important in these difficult economic times."
Houston Chronicle Analysis Suggest Edge for Annise Parker
Houston Chronicle: "The numbers paint a very good picture for the Parker campaign and present some obvious challenges to the Locke team in the finals," said unaffiliated political consultant Keir Murray, whose analysis of the precinct data concurs with that of the Chronicle. "Annise goes into the runoff in a very strong position. I think she's the person to beat."
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Parker, who established a major base of support among inside-the-loop white voters and placed first or second in traditionally conservative areas, must get out her base and undertake a major push to woo conservatives, a possibility that may be within reach, according to the data, campaign officials and analysts.
Locke, who placed a distant fourth in traditionally conservative areas, must raise black turnout, unite African-Americans behind his candidacy and win over far more upper- and middle-class white voters, particularly those in the conservative areas that may be most up for grabs, analysts said.
In an October survey by Lake Research Partners, among voters who voted for Peter Brown originally, Annise was their second choice candidate and by a margin of 2 to 1 over Locke. And among voters who chose Morales (either first or second), almost a third chose Parker (30%) compared to just 10% who chose Locke.
Gene Locke Poll Showing Parker Lead of 4 Points
Burka Blog: Gene Locke's campaign has released the first poll taken since November 3. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday nights (November 9 & 10) by Paul Maislin, who also polled for Lee Brown and Bill White. The poll showed [Annise] Parker leading by 43-39% with 18% undecided. The margin of error was 4%.
The poll shows that Parker and Locke are splitting Peter Brown votes fairly evenly with most white Democrats shifting to Parker and Brown's African-American supporters moving to Locke. The undecided voters at this point are mostly suburban, white, and Republican leaning. The suburban-white-Republican-leaning voters that have made up their minds about the race are breaking strongly in Locke's favor by about a 70-30 margin. This group is primarily been responsible for Locke moving from 10% down in the election to within the margin of error of Parker.
The poll is modeled on a 170,000-voter turnout in the election. About 180,000 voters voted on November 3.
More Maps by Greg Wythe
Now you can see the order of finish of both Annise Parker and Gene Locke by precinct across Harris County in this map. Greg also tries to divine a sense of victory by mapping these three neighborhoods.
Annise Parker Campaign had a Field Game
One of the markers of the first round of the election was that while Peter Brown was spending millions on TV, Annise Parker was talking to her base out in the field. With the first round over, some numbers from muse.
In just the last 90 days, our volunteers have made more than 179,000 phone calls and knocked on over 50,000 doors. On just the weekend before the election, our field operation knocked on 14,000 doors! Now that's how to win a campaign when you are outspent more than two to one.
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The internal memo from the Parker campaign yesterday revealed that their field campaign increased turnout 10% in targeted precincts. That's pretty impressive data on ROI on field.
This is a solid ad from Gene Locke, starting with the introduction and carrying on through to the end. Even though it is largely a biographical ad, the visuals are well put and there is a string of narrative that ties him to some highlighted goals, right through to a solid finish. I actually wanted to watch this ad multiple times, not because it confused me, but because it made me feel good. And I'm an Austinite.
Peter Brown's Third Ad: Community, Focused On Public Safety: Watch
Ah, another Houston ad on "safety". Except this time Pete Brown is Sam Waterston and is going to rig up the Houston Police Department with satellite cameras that are going to track officers on the beat down to the nearest nanometer. I feel like I'm watching a commercial for Law & Order Houston.
There was an opportunity for Parker's ad campaign to get better from the mediocre first entry. That opportunity was not taken. It feels like I'm watching something in which the goal was to insert as many buzzwords that polled well into 30 seconds rather than something with a coherent theme or message.
For 1st class city, these ad campaigns are flying coach.
While Peter Brown has already launched two different spots to the airwaves, the following ad puts current City Controller Annise Parker into the media mix in the Houston Mayoral race. If Brown's ad was memorable for his 'blueprint' theme, this appears to be aimed at public safety, with a dash of 'cutting waste' thrown in the mix.
While the Houston Mayoral campaign is not something that we're probably going to delve into much coverage on until after Mary (they hold their municipal elections in November), this release from the Annise Parker campaign is actually really cool. It's focused around setting in place policies at the city level to help focus more investment into the local economy when it comes to various contracts that are entertained by the city.
The full document is below, but I've clipped some of the important policy points here. By the way, he way this was formatted, more like an informational paper than a press release, was pretty cool. Maybe that's a reflection of Annise's background or how people view the Mayor's position in Houston.
Local Hiring:
Bid preference. The city would award bonus points in the evaluation process to proposals meeting local hiring goals.
Bonus payments.
In the same way that the city pays a bonus to a construction contractor for completing a project ahead of schedule, the city would pay a bonus to frms who meet or exceed local hiring benchmarks.
Local Contracting:
Right to match low bid. If a local contractor's bid is within 10% of the lowest bid, the local frm could match the lowest bid from a non-local frm and be awarded the contract.
Enhanced bid preferences. The city already gives a preference to local vendors in tie bids - where all else is equal. Under this option, the city would expand that preference to award bonus points to local frms in the evaluation process.Another option for small local businesses: for small contracts (e.g., under $100,000), the city would grant a preference equal to 10% of the bid of the lowest and best responsible bidder, and, if after taking that preference into account the small local business' bid is equal to or less than the lowest bid, the bid or proposal of that small local business would be deemed to be the lowest bid.
Minority contracting goals. The city's Minority/Women/Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Program sets forth voluntary goals to encourage contracting with MWDBE frms. Under the Hire Houston First program, the voluntary goals would be weighted to give preference to MWDBE companies that are locally owned.
