MySanAntonio.com gives us an update on turnout that I find interesting though just a small example of what may be going on in the 24 counties of District 23.
Bexar County elections administrator Jacque Callanen predicted that some 20,000 residents of the county would vote today. She noted that 18,500 people had voted early and an additional 2,300 had voted by mail.
She said there are 259,000 eligible voters in the county in District 23, which stretches from San Antonio's far Northwest Side to the South Side and west to El Paso. The district includes nearly 700 miles of the Texas-Mexico border.
...
One election official on the Northwest Side, considered a Bonilla stronghold, said that 180 voters had turned out as of mid-afternoon. Earlier in the day, he had predicted as many as 500 voters in the two voting precincts, which combined had more than 5,000 registered voters would cast ballots in the hotly contested congressional race.
Elections officials in West Texas said they were not expecting a heavy turnout, but they cautioned that the vote tabulation might be slow because many residents were using paper ballots rather than voting on electronic machines.
Don't expect the early results to be accurate of the entire district. That last line is key as this is a huge district and man of the smaller counties will be using paper ballots. San Antonio should be faster but has had a history of being slow itself compared to the rest of the urban metro's in the state.
But here's what I see as good news and you can compare the two counties to the chart to the post below this one on this page.
Paula Hoover, the Hudspeth County clerk, said fewer than two dozen of the 1,594 registered voters had turned out to vote early. She expected about 110 people in the sparsely populated county would cast ballots today.
Hudspeth County was Bonilla's 3rd best county %-wise with 414 total votes cast on Nov 7th.
In nearby Brewster County, Isabel Segura LaSoya, the elections administrator in Alpine, said about 600 people had voted, "a heavier than normal turnout," given the election was midweek in the middle of December.
Brewster was a swing county on November 7th, the closest to the average.
Below is a chart of the results from the November 7th election. I've combined the Democratic candidates into one column. Each of them plus the Independent candidate endorsed Rodriguez.
My only notes on it are that the Hispanic subset in this poll are higher and more in line with what the district will likely produce. Additionally, those polled on who they supported in the Nov. 7th race is interesting with 6% of Bonilla's voters flaking to Ciro, only 1% of Ciro's voters flaking to Bonilla, and those that didn't vote in the first round but plan to today breaking for Ciro 49/43.
Anyways, we'll have hard numbers in about 45 minutes.
Well get yourselves ready, we're going to be here the rest of the night with reports on TX-23. I'll have a call in post from my roommate out in the field, poll updates, numbers as they come in, and for now, a round-up of what's being said on the web in regards to this race.
Election Returns can be tracked by the Sec. of State here tonight. Bexar County which will make up over half the vote will have their results here for cross-checking. I'll be making a table that I'll fill in as we go tonight that compares the Nov 7th margins with tonight.
The San Antonio Express News as of early this afternoon says Election Day Early Voting has been slow for both sides. That may make early vote all that much more important. Of course, we only know about San Antonio turnout for that period, not the 23 other counties. If Ciro worked some magic in boosting turnout in places like Maverick, this could be fun.
Castillo also noted that Republican areas did not outperform Democratic areas in the early vote, a departure from the norm.
Considering that the race started with Bonilla having $2 million in the bank and Rodriguez having a debt left over from previous campaigns, the current status, just minutes before the polls open, is amazing. Or maybe not so amazing. Money is of little use without intensity, and Democrats are just a lot more motivated than Republicans right now.
Is this race a hint at 2008? I don't think so. The "issues" this race has been about on the ground have been so far from the national message, and the turnout will have been so lackluster, I'm not about to draw any meaning from tonight's results as an indicator of 2008. Texas seems to be immune from the national mood at times and this is no different. If Bonilla wins, it's not a sign of Republican optimism for 2008- it just means we'll know how many more votes we need to take him out for good in 2008. If Ciro wins, then we'll know that the people of San Antonio and the Border are ready to be represented by someone who thinks like them.
Ciro's Election Day Schedule is here. Needless to say, he's been busy.
Political Wire notes that DC based folks are of the opinion that either way, tonight will be a close vote. Well, duh.
Right of Texas says things look good for Bonilla. Then again, they're Republican and I really doubt that their report is comparative with activity going on in Ciro-turf. Meh.
Thanks to Swing State Project for the shout-out and love these last few weeks. They've lived up to their blog's name.
This is a great report on where we are today in the race for the last seat in the country. If we win this, Dems will have picked up 31 seats this year (depending how you count the change of the 1 Independent seat to Democratic control in Vermont). My roommate is down in San Antonio helping right now which is where I would be if I didn't have one more paper to write this week. But tomorrow night I'll be liveblogging the returns so come on back here for some BOR election night coverage on Tuesday.
Momentum is a fickle thing in politics.
But it has become clear down the stretch of the Congressional District 23 race that one candidate - Ciro Rodriguez - has some mojo, and one - Henry Bonilla - is trying to get some back.
Let me be clear before the guys in white lab coats show up in my office: Momentum doesn't necessarily mean that Rodriguez will pull a stunning upset Tuesday.
But it does mean that a race many thought Congressman Bonilla would win 56 percent to 44 percent several weeks ago is going to be much closer than that.
The signs of a tight horserace are now too many to discount.
They include:
Bonilla's late decision to not only go negative in TV and radio ads, but to go with over-the-top spots that paint Rodriguez as having terrorist ties;
The continued involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee with personnel, polls and expensive ads on behalf of Rodriguez;
Bonilla's decision not to ignore, but to run a response to a critical DCCC spot that says Bonilla voted eight times to give himself a raise (The Bonilla ad says Rodriguez voted four times for congressional pay hikes);
And, finally, President Clinton's swing through San Antonio on Sunday on behalf of Rodriguez.
Unless this race is close, none of those things happen.
I attended the GOTV rally at Palo Alto College on the south side of San Antonio this afternoon and got a number of pictures of the event. I've posted them at my blog, B and B.
Clinton gave a great speech, emphasizing the need to turn out the vote. It is all up to us, he said. Do we want to join the 29 districts that voted out the GOP and sent Democrats to Congress, or will we join the dozen or so districts that came up just short?
Prior to Clinton's arrival, former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros brought down the house. "I do not understand a man like Henry Bonilla, who grew up in this area, and yet has voted time and again and again against the interests of the people of this area. It's time to tell him, Ya basta! Ya acabo'! Ya vete!" (Video here)
It's all up to us to send Bonilla home in favor of Ciro Rodriguez.
Update: I finally figured out how to embed the YouTube videos into my blog posts, so I've added a post with the Cisneros video and also one of Clinton remarking on Bonilla's expressed happiness that Clinton was coming to town to campaign for Ciro.
Filtering: 1,000 Registered Voters from Texas's 23rd Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 12/1/06 through 12/3/06. Of them, 471 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%
Bonilla (R) 53%
Rodriguez (D) 46%
Undecided 1%
Bonilla gets 70% of White votes. Rodriguez gets 72% of Hispanic votes. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 59% of likely runoff voters are white, 36% are Hispanic. If Hispanics, who are 55% of the population in TX 23, make up more than 36% of those who vote in the Runoff, the contest will be closer than SurveyUSA's numbers here show.
Bonilla gets 94% of Republican votes. Rodriguez gets 89% of Democratic votes. Independents split. Bonilla wins by 25 points among higher-income voters, and by 15 points among middle-income voters. Rodriguez wins by 25 points among lower-income voters.
The bolded section is key. Hispanic turnout in Texas as shown on November 7th under performs the registration levels. But this is a low-turnout runoff election. Trying to predict which side is going to turnout is indeed the mystery.
As it stands with the early vote in Bexar County, 48% of the vote is coming from the heavily Hispanic southside locations and 52% from the more anglo northwest. That's just one county, though the epicenter of voter turnout. And you never know, Election Day could still change.
Yesterday the Texas Democratic Party had some scathing (and accurate) things to say about Congressman Henry Bonilla.
Amber Moon stated clearly:
Despite being investigated by the U.S. Justice Department for employing an illegal immigrant, Bonilla continues to give employers who hire them a free pass. Voters in Congressional District 23 deserve a Congressman who stands up for the best interest of Texas families, not a Representative who skirts the law. Henry Bonilla owes it to his constituents to explain why he is talking out of both sides of his mouth. While he says he's tough on immigration, he votes to let employers, like himself, who seek cheap and illegal labor off the hook.
Why Amber, whatever could you mean? (Beware, all materials below the fold are wonky in nature and may be dangerous for children)
Burnt Orange Report has some information to break on the 23rd Congressional Runoff that has come our way via a well placed source in DC who has reason to know this.
The issue of the selection of the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe as the electoral date is under serious consideration by the Justice Department. The DOJ is in contact with the state of Texas on this subject.
Other information that Burnt Orange Report can not make available but is aware of, gives us confidence that those handling the case are indeed taking it seriously due to prepared work and cases handled.
