It's official. I am tired of reading that Republicans have an advantage in low turnout or special elections.
The facts simply do not support the bold claim.
Since 2005, Democrats have won or over performed in nearly every special election in Texas.
The obvious and best example of this is House District 97. In the December, "low turnout" special election, Dan Barrett won. In the November general election, Dan Barrett lost. Barrett saw a 10 point erosion in his numbers while Shelton saw a nearly 8 point gain.
House District 97 Special Election Dan Barrett (D) - 52.18%
Mark M. Shelton (R) - 47.81%
House District 97 General Election Mark M. Shelton (R) - 55.33%
Dan Barrett (D) - 42.75%
Nothing changed. Barrett was out spent in both elections. Shelton was cozy to Craddick in both elections. The only major difference is the turnout numbers. Barrett won the low turnout election, Shelton won the high turnout election.
It may seem like an overstatement, but looking back to 2005 the Republican special election not only appears to be a fallacy, it appears to be nonexistent.
2006 was a very good year for Democrats who ran in supposedly Republican favored special elections.
U. S. Representative District 23 Henry Bonilla (R) - 45.71%
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) - 54.28%
State Representative District 48 Ben Bentzin (R) - 42.38%
Donna Howard (D) - 57.61%
In 2006, Democrats won every special election they ran in with the exception of House District 29. House District 29 hasn't elected a Democrat since 2000 and no Democrat has received more than Tom Uher did in 2002 when he got 42.59% of the vote after 9/11. Before that, Uher represented a totally different district than what is now HD-29. Before the census and redistricting, Uher's district was a democratically favorable district, and since, it has been carved in a way to help elect over 100 Republicans in Texas (as was Tom DeLay's goal at the time).
You have to go back to February 2005 to see a special election contest where a Republican had a definitive win.
State Representative District 121 Paul Silbert (I) - 3.09%
Rose Spector (D) - 33.58%
Glen S. Starnes (R) - 1.38%
Joe Straus (R) - 61.93%
As Kuff wrote in 2005, House District 121 was and continues to be a Republican district. House District 121 in northeast San Antonio and stretched from Olmos Park northeast to Windcrest and north past Loop 1604.
Although Spector lost, she still did better than the Democratic challenger did against Elizabeth Ames Jones in 2000.
State Representative District 121 Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) - 68.24%
Michael G. Zapper (D) - 28.68%
J. (Jay) Moore (L) - 3.07%
While it didn't win us the seat, Democrats saw a nearly 5 point increase during the 2005 special election. In a competitive race, a 5 point swing would be the difference between victory and defeat.
In fact this phenomenon extends beyond urban districts. On February 17, 2004, Democrats were only 3.5 points away from winning the rural Senate District 1 in a special election.
State Senator, District 1 (Unexpired) Kevin Eltife (R) - 51.86%
Paul Sadler (D) - 48.13%
The truth is, Democrats do well in special elections. The reasons differ. The politics and finances differ from year to year and campaign to campaign, but the empirical data remains consistent.
As we move rapidly towards December 16, it is more important than ever for us to elect Congressman Chris Bell. The data shows it will only get harder.
(for more information about the Senate District 17 special election click here.)
The Star-Telegram this week rolled out the names of all the ambitious Republicans clamoring to make a run at the likely-to-vacate senate seat of Kay Bailey Hutchison. It would appear that the next election has already begun.
Nonetheless, because of what the Star-Telegram wrote about the likes of Republicans Joe Barton, Jeb Hensarling, and Kay Granger making a run for the senate, and the one Democratic name of John Sharp mentioned, coupled with the lively and hopeful discussion around the recent L.A. Times article about Texas being a battleground state in 2012, I think it is important to take a deep breath and really analyze some things here.
The stakes just got much higher in the race for House District 97 in Tarrant County. State Representative Dan Barrett launched a television ad this week highlighting Mark Shelton's connections to big banks, big insurance, and big credit card companies. You know, the same guys we just bailed out? Yeah, those guys. The one's who are partially responsible for our current economic crisis:
In the brief time he's been state representative, Barrett has immersed himself in establishing contacts and building relationships with other Austin lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. His two interim committee assignments - Land and Resource Management and Pensions and Investments - have introduced the attorney to the mundane but important work of government, with issues ranging from eminent domain to contracts with the company that runs the state's pharmacy benefits program.
Should voters return him to Austin, Barrett said, he will focus on the economic issues affecting the residents of District 97: reining in escalating homeowners insurance and utility rates, promoting programs that will decrease the transportation gridlock, and revisiting the state's less-than-successful funding formula for public education.
We couldn't agree more. House District 97 was the first race that focused on Tom Craddick's failure to lead in Austin. It was a campaign that focused on the problems Tom Craddick has caused since becoming Speaker and the solutions the Democrats would like to work toward if given control of a legislative district, or better the Texas House.
Barrett's December 18 victory was an early Christmas present to HD-97, Democrats, and Texas.
Barrett has done a lot in the interim. As the FWST highlights, he has made friends regardless of party affiliation, he has worked with constituents to improve their lives, and has only given voters more reasons to vote for him this November.
Congrats to Rep. Dan Barrett on this well earned endorsement.
Here's one good anecdote for why Barrett will win: Shelton finally sent out his first mail piece this weekend. It in response to 3 negative mail pieces Barrett had already sent out on Shelton's position in support of vouchers. There's no way that Shelton had planned to (1) be so far behind on his mail plan, and (2) be talking about vouchers right now.
Barrett is running a good race -- just like he did a year ago. Remember?
Remember back before the Obama/Clinton primary season. Remember back all the way to December 2007, when Democrats still only had 69 members of the Texas House. Remember when there was a huge, unexpected victory by Texas Democrats.
House District 97 was not drawn to be a Democratic seat. In 2006, Barrett had taken on the recently retired Anna Mowery and claimed only 40.82% of the vote. Tarrant County on the whole only gave Barbara Radnofsky, the U.S. Senate nominee, 34.80%, Chris Bell 31.07% in his bid for Governor, and the bellwhether Texas Supreme Court candidate Bill Moody 42.79% of the vote. The Republican's should have won this election based on the poor democratic performance index (DPI) of the district alone. During the special election yesterday, Barrett won with 52.2% of the vote.
In addition, Barrett was dramatically out spent. According to the 8 day out reports, Mark Shelton spent over $100,000 and raised (and presumably spent) another $10,000 from TexPAC before the election. Barrett on the other hand spent a little over $45,000 according to his 8 day report. Again, according to his telegram reports, raised an additional $4,000 in the final week of the election from Texas Parent PAC and two individuals.
Those two paragraphs were from Matt's excellent wrap-up post on Barrett's surprise victory. All that's changed in this high-stakes race since then is that Barrett has even higher name ID and more money -- but the same can be said of Shelton.
A top target for Republicans, and a key hold for Democrats, this race is going to come down to the wire. If Barrett can hold on one more time, he will be the lynchpin in replacing Tom Craddick as Speaker of the Texas House.
Here are some other links that previous coverage of the race on Burnt Orange Report:
State Representative Dan Barrett outpaced his opponent, Republican Mark Shelton, by raising $168,406 since July, while still holding $113,549 cash on hand in this pivotal re-match for House District 97. You'll recall that Barrett rocked Texas by defeating Craddick's pawn, Shelton, in the Special Election held in December 2007 to replace retired Republican Anna Mowery.
"I am truly humbled by the tremendous support my campaign has received, but especially humbled by the people from within the District who have contributed to my campaign in these tough economic times," stated Barrett.
Barrett's opponent reported having raised $119,569, spending $55,693, and retaining $86,669 cash on hand. When you discount Shelton's personal loan of $48,541 he has $38,128 in real donations to his campaign. That leaves Barrett with a $75,421 cash on hand advantage in the final stretch toward November 4th in the race that Capitol Inside recently ranked as the #1 State House race in Texas.
I was polled this evening by IVR. Only two questions asked: 1. Obama or McCain and 2. Shelton or Barrett (in that order), so no one was trying to persuade or test a message. The number was 512-207-3728. I did a reverse number lookup but nothing came up. Just curious to know who's polling my state house race.
Is it normal to poll state house races? I didn't think they usually had enough money to do much polling in these types of races.
Dan Barrett's victory tonight has implications beyond better representation for Fort Worth residents. To relay its importance, we have to look at what brought us to this point.
In 2001, Republican's drew a map they thought would elect 102 R's and 48 D's. They were wrong as only 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats were elected in 2002. Still, it was a striking blow to Democrats as we had lost our majority, the Speakership, and control of the operation of the Texas House. That was a low point for Democrats in Texas as well as nationally. The result was the rise of the neo-conservative, uber Republican Tom Craddick who slashed the budget and cut social programs like CHIP and education funding. To this day that funding has never been restored even with surpluses in the state budget.
In 2006, Democrats won 6 seats plus Donna Howard's special election. In 2007 we welcomed Kirk England to the Democratic Party and now we have Dan Barrett as member of our caucus as well. We've not even yet had a single vote cast the 2008 primaries, and there are now 71 Democrats in Texas House- a stunning and speedy reversal based on the same map that was drawn to have only 42 Democratic seats.
Yesterday's election in Fort Worth was a runoff between a Democrat and multiple Republicans even though only one Republican in name was on the ballot. It was a race between the Democrat fighting for fair representation and the Republican Speaker and his possible enabler. Dan Barrett vs. Tom Craddick and his crony Mark Shelton.
House District 97 was not drawn to be a Democratic seat. In 2006, Barrett had taken on the recently retired Anna Mowery and claimed only 40.82% of the vote. Tarrant County on the whole only gave Barbara Radnofsky, the U.S. Senate nominee, 34.80%, Chris Bell 31.07% in his bid for Governor, and the bellwhether Texas Supreme Court candidate Bill Moody 42.79% of the vote. The Republican's should have won this election based on the poor democratic performance index (DPI) of the district alone. During the special election yesterday, Barrett won with 52.2% of the vote.
In addition, Barrett was dramatically out spent. According to the 8 day out reports, Mark Shelton spent over $100,000 and raised (and presumably spent) another $10,000 from TexPAC before the election. Barrett on the other hand spent a little over $45,000 according to his 8 day report. Again, according to his telegram reports, raised an additional $4,000 in the final week of the election from Texas Parent PAC and two individuals.
Breaking it down, that means Barrett spent $9.13 per vote compared to about $23.40 per vote for Shelton.
This is a stunning referendum on Tom Craddick and whether change is needed in Fort Worth and through out Texas. The voters said yes to change.
This election is a sign of the future. In less than 2 years, Texas Democrats have picked up 8 state house seats with rumors circulating that another may be on the way. Before the primaries are over, the gains made by the Republican's have been cut in half while we still compete on the same Republican favored, unconstitutional, Tom DeLay sponsored map. We sit on the edge of a Democratic House because we have won special elections, general elections, and the hearts and minds of voters across the state.
Texas Democratic Party Chairman, Boyd Richie stated simply:
"I congratulate our newest Democratic State Representative Dan Barrett on his victory in House District 97. In an election marred with dirty tricks and Craddick cronies, Dan ran as an independent voice, who could be trusted to stand up against Tom Craddick's special interest agenda and fight for the best interests of Texas families.
Dan Barrett won in a district drawn by Republicans to elect a Republican, and his victory is a slap in the face to Speaker Tom Craddick and the failed Republican leadership in this state. Voters have sent a message that they are tired of "business as usual" in Austin and want leaders who will replace the pay-to-play politics of the Republican Party with a state government that works for all Texans."
Presumptive Democratic Senate nominee and State Representative Lt. Col Rick Noriega added:
"Yesterday, Texans voted for change. They stood up for Texas values and said no to business as usual. They said no to the politics of division. They said yes to an independent voice who will put Texas families and children first.
Dan Barrett's win in the Texas State House is about change for Texas, but it's also about a change in how campaigns are won. We wouldn't have narrowed the Republican majority from 26 seats to 8 seats over the last five years without the work of Texas netroots. That's why your actions online - from raising attention to raising money - are so important."
The tide *is* changing. We are a mere five seats away from a Democratic majority in the Texas House and removing Tom Craddick from the dais. To the House Democratic Campaign Committee, Rep. Lon Burnam, Rep. Mark Veasey, the staff and many others involved in this race, congratulations. Now it is our job to elect more good Democrats and protect our current elected leaders.
When Republicans out spend us in Republican drawn districts and lose it solidifies our need to run everywhere. It means our message and our organizing skills are superior. It means supporting Tom Craddick and his style of Republican "leadership" is a losing proposition.
As noted below, Democrat Dan Barrett has won the special election runoff to fill the remainder of Republican Anna Mowery's term given her resignation and retirement from the Texas House of Representatives.
Barrett won over Republican candidate Mark Shelton with 52.2% of the vote, outperforming the Democratic performance of the district by 13 points. Barret won the Election Day vote by 69 votes and won the election by 452 votes.
The GOP margin in the Texas House is now 79-71 thanks to Dan Barrett today and Kirk England switching parties last month in HD-106. The peak of GOP control was 88-62 after the first re-districting for the 2002 elections.
This proves the wind is behind Texas Democrats back for 2008 and we can win other GOP districts as well, like HD-52 north of Austin in traditionally Republican Williamson County. Congratulations to Dan Barrett, the HDCC, and TexBlog PAC for the stunning win tonight. BOR Editor Matt Glazer will be following up with his thoughts shortly.
7:15 PM - There are about 95,600 registered voters in HD-97. That puts the Early Vote turnout at 3.9% of total voters.
7:25 PM - Here are some things to think about. If the Early Vote makes up 1/3 of the total vote, Barrett could win as little as 47.4% of the Election Day vote and still win the election. If the Early Vote makes up 1/2 of the total vote, Barrett could win as little as 44.9% of the Election Day vote and still win the election.
8:15 PM - To save you from having to do the calculations below, from the 8 precincts reporting today, Barrett won them 52%-48% over Shelton.
8:30 PM - The last update was a large chunk of data and I've run some numbers on it. If returns come in at the same rate they have been... we can project about 5,214 total votes to be cast on Electon Day meaning 8,937 total turnout. That makes the "win number" 4,468 votes of which Barrett would have to win only 45.6% or 625 at this point.
BOR CALLS ELECTION FOR DAN BARRETT
Yeah, at this point, Barrett could get just 6.2% of the vote in the remaining five boxes and win.
8:55 - Barret wins Election Day vote by 69 votes and wins the election by 452 votes! He outperformed the Democratic performance in the district by 13 points.
9:00 - IT'S OVER. DEMOCRAT DAN BARRETT WINS. Republican Control of the Texas House is now down to 79-71 with Democrats having picked up 2 seats since 2006 elections (Kirk England switching parties and Barrett's win tonight). Matt will be following up here tonight with what this election means for Democrats in 2008.
