From the Secretary of State some surprising results with Randy Weber leading the early vote.
The SOS is reporting the results wrong. They have Weber and O'Day switched. Brazoria County has them ordered correctly. Mike O'Day leads the Early Vote though the staff here had only predicted DiNovo to pick up 20% of the early vote as it was so it's not so far out of bounds.
(D) Anthony A. DiNovo 476 15.38%
(R) John Gorman 33 1.06% (R) Mike O'Day 1,744 56.36%
(R) Randy Weber 841 27.18%
Interestingly there are 8 people who undervoted who showed up and cast an empty ballot... Did I not say there would be 3000 early votes in Brazoria?
Update: The Houston Chron is also reporting the correction that O'Day did win the Early Vote in Brazoria, not Weber. They do not list results for Matagorda yet.
If you are looking for results tonight, we'll be reporting them here on BOR hopefully. If for some reason we don't have Internet access or my other writers are away, here's where you can look to find results.
Sitting here in the DiNovo HQ in Pearland while Martha is prepping her own blog post as we take a break in calling. My phone is elsewhere in the HQ while another one charges, giving me some time to put up a quick post instead of pestering folks in precinct 63.
Martha has a great picture of Dr. Dinovo here. She also has a post up just now, with a picture of me blogging about her post about me blogging about the campaign. Freakish.
In Brazoria County, 2,223 voters cast their ballots in the first four days of early voting compared to the 4,506 votes cast in the same locations in the first four days of the general election early voting.
But the east Pearland voting box during early voting has generated the same or even more votes than it did during early voting in the general election, which stunned Brazoria County's lead elections clerk Susan Cloudt.
There are about 10 people calling from the HQ here, including TDP staff like Brian Pendleton. The folks from the TDP and from Lampson's campaign have been down here doing a good job of organizing this race. A lot of people once educated are thankful for the calls and head out to vote. There are a few dead folks and some that probably aren't used to getting so many contacts in a short period of time that will hang up on the political phone calls. Of course, saying that you are a friend of Dr. Anthony DiNovo when you start your call usually keeps them on the line a bit longer- if only because they think we're calling from the doctor's office with some grave news of some sort.
Brian mentioned earlier today that some of the precincts had horrific turnout, with noon voting of seven and even just one vote at one area precinct. Other districts in the more populous areas in Pearland had better turnout. There hasn't been any rain in Pearland today though there were reports of some wet weather in Matagorda County before it went back out into the gulf.
We say Weber and O'Day folks at Precinct 63 this morning which seems to be about the most pointless use of resources in an election like this. If anyone is going to show up at the polls, they've already made up their mind and pestering them with leaflets...I'm glad DiNovo resources are being spent getting Democrats to remember to show up and vote by calling them or blockwalking.
I've finally had a change to get ahold of some Internet access out here to give everyone a short update on what has been going on.
As Matt mentioned earlier, turnout has been light. Matagorda County only cast 436 Early Votes total, even though around 90% of ID'd Democratic Primary voters are from there. This is due in part, though, by the fact that there was only one voting location for the entire county for EV last week. The DiNovo campaign has apparently been working on calling and contacting folks out there to push them to vote on Election Day instead.
In Brazoria County, home to fast growing Pearland, insterest seems to have been higher. (All 4 candidates are from this part of the district.) Through last Thursday, 2,223 voters had come out to vote here. My guess is there was about 3,000 when you include Friday. Over half of that is coming from East Pearland, with Alvin following in second before West Pearland in early vote showing. From what the person I'm staying with says, East Pearland is more Republican turf, but to note, it used to be the only early voting site until this year so many people aren't used to voting on the other side of town.
Of the candidates, John Gorman has the least number of signs up and apparently hasn't been campaigning all that much. (Check out his website linked above. The image has "December XXth whrer the election date should be on it.)
Randy Weber could be said as trying to go hard-right in the race from what I've seen of his direct mail, one of which features a giant picture of 'suspicious Mexicans' paddling an inflatable raft across a river and is all about Immigration.
Weber has been doing a lot of driving, trying to make events in Matagorda and Brazoria counties.
"We've also been calling our voters and doing mail-outs," Weber said. "It's going to come down to turnout and how many voters show up to vote."
Mike O'Day, who has a hardware store down the street, is the prime challenger and if this race is in a runoff it's likely it will be him and DiNovo. Through supposedly the moderate, you wouldn't know it for the campaign lit and local activities.
O'Day's campaign staff has been putting in 13 to 14 hours a day making calls and attending community events, he said. The high numbers of the east Pearland location are a good indication that some voters are paying attention, he said.
Anthony DiNovo's campaign has really kicked up in the last weeks. Volunteers have been making calls from early on until about 7-8 each day. Mostly everything that can be blockwalked has. It's true that voters are pretty clueless about there being a race going on, but in the last day, that seems to have changed. Many voters reported getting multiple contacts today about the race and those that are contacted by phone or door appear very receptive to voting tomorrow.
I spent the morning walking in Pearland's Precinct 63 which actually broke for Chris Bell. I had a higher than average rate of getting people at home. Within this one precinct, there was Democrats of two stripes- suburban upper class voters of mixed ethnicity and then a street of Hispanic mobile homes. One funny story from that part of town was reading the walk list notation of "moved". When we got to the property that was true- the mobile home was literally gone, with nothing but a brown patch of dirt and a lonely set of stairs in the yard.
During the afternoon I called voters with Martha about about 7 other folks at the Democratic Party HQ. Last night we ran into another blogger Hal of HalfEmpty, who was out here doing a lot of work. You should really read this and this post of his to get a better idea of what he's been seeing out here on the ground. The bloggers have really chipped in on this one and Tammy and the campaign staff, most all doing this for free, have been working harder than you can imagine trying to get this over the edge.
My ballpark estimate (which could vary based on tomorrow's chance of rain) is about 8400 votes total to be cast in this election. It's winnable, could go to a run-off (sorry Hal and Tammy), and in any case is something worthwhile to be a part of. Come down to help if you are in the area or call from home.
P.S. A big Thank You to Zada True-Courage for helping to pay over half my ticket cost after seeing this post from Sunday! You're the best!
Campaign HQ
The address for the Pearland HQ 3536 Broadway Pearland, TX 77581 The phone #281 412-0990
November 7, December 12, December 19. Three elections, six weeks.
In that time, Democrats across the state have celebrated picking up 6 House seats, holding on to every incumbent seat, replacing Tom DeLay with Nick Lampson, and the return of Ciro Rodriguez to Congress.
Not bad for a months work, but we have one more race to watch and work on in HD-29. The Texas Democratic Party, House Democratic Campaign Committee, and our very own KT are all working tirelessly to overcome the districts red nature to elect Dr. Anthony DiNovo.
Currently there are 5 TDP staffers on the ground in HD-29 (one of which has been in the district since December 3). The other 4 staff members were reassigned once the November and December 12 congressional election passed in order to maximize the effort on the ground and elect as many Democrats as possible.
One TDP staff member has been put on the ground to work on a GOTV effort that focuses on the usually disenfranchised Hispanic community and the others have been directed to do, "whatever the campaign needs done."
With the sudden passing of Glenda Dawson, the swift turn toward this unique opportunity has been interesting to watch. The possibilities of runoffs in the 5 congressional seats gave campaigns and the party time to get resources together. Unlike those races, this came suddenly.
Because of this sudden special election, former State Representative and Democrat Tom Uher was able to recruit convince Republican Mike O'Day to enter the race. O'Day has been artful in hiding his strong conservative ideology and frame himself as a moderate.
Interestingly Matagorda has only had 436 people vote at its only early vote location and Brazoria has had nearly 2,223 voters (close to 1,200 of which have come from east Pearland).
Amber Moon, spokesperson of the TDP had this to say about the recent string of elections.
The Texas Democratic Party has been working non-stop all year long to elect more Democrats to more offices across the state, and we've seen from Democrat's electoral success on November 7th and December 12th that the hard work is paying off. The TDP is channeling that momentum into the HD-29 race because we remain committed to supporting Democratic candidates in every area of the state. The Party is proud to be involved and lend support to the Anthony DiNovo campaign.
There has already been a discussion by HDCC about what can be done to maximize the campaign efforts in a runoff. This includes the use of targeted mail, paid phoners, and other parallel campaign activities.
Watch here tomorrow for the result, but in the mean time, phonebank using True Blue Action today and tomorrow!
Here is a bit of the number crunching going on in Austin. It is important to realize that this is an uphill fight that everyone agrees must be fought.
The Numbers
There are roughly 5,800 voters in HD 29 who voted in every one of the following elections: 2005 Constitutional, 2006 General, 2006 Primary, 2004 General and 2002 General.
For simplicity sake, these are the people that will wake up tomorrow and likely vote. Of these likely voters, about 60% are Republicans and 40% Democrats.
One source close to the campaign believes that total turnout could be as high as 7,000 to 9,300 based on the special election in HD 121 and HD 48. I tend to think the number will be closer to 7,000 than 6,000 because of the need to inflate the Democratic base in order to win.
On average, Democrats in statewide elections have received around 34% in HD 29. That means the hardcore voters in the district are slightly more Democratic than average voters, but there would still be a significant partisan hill to climb.
The Pearland Factor
Pearland is the biggest and fastest growing portion of the district. Representing a quarter of the population, the percentage of vote (over half of the Brazoria County vote), Pearland cannot be ignored. New construction over the past decade added over 20,000 voters with little to no voting history and with very shallow community roots.
The Census estimates already indicate 50% growth since 2000 in the total population of Pearland.
The Matagorda Effect
In the General Elections, Matagorda County usually accounts for 11 - 25% of the vote share:
2002 - 25.9% of voters in HD29
2004 - 11.7% of voters in HD29
2006 - 21.0% of voters in HD29
Interestingly, Matagorda makes up close to 90% of the total population of voters that vote in the Democratic Party with 3,668 total votes.
The need now is to ensure that all of these voters are contacted and informed that an election is going on. As one blogger on the ground put it, "voter contact with dems is showing a very low awareness that an election is happening."
It's 3 AM and my ticket is bought to head out to the HD-29 special election- $84 round trip. Now that I've graduated from UT (oh yeah, I forgot to mention that) I've got nothing else to do this week so off I go to help in the last election in Texas this year.
I'll be staying near the HQ apparently with some campaign arranged housing. I'm looking forward to meeting up with some other bloggers out there, volunteering on the campaign, and giving you some reports form the field in addition to liveblogging results on Tuesday night before I head back. Matt is going to have a post tomorrow on what's been going on so far that you can look forward to. Turnout so far in last week's early vote has apparently been light so if you can, make some calls into the district and GOTV from wherever you are in Texas.
In terms of cost, it's projects like this that are the bigger expenses for me for BOR but I feel are worth it for our activism as a Democratic community. If you so desire to pitch in a few greenbacks to cover the cost of my ticket, click the button to donate below (consider it a graduation gift, hah). Otherwise, you can make a donation to the DiNovo campaign.
Unknown to many and overshadowed by the coverage and fallout of TX-23, there is one last race in Texas this year (and maybe one in January if this race goes to a run-off). That's HD-29 out southwest of Houston where Democrat Dr. Anthony DiNovo is running against 3 Republicans in a special election called because Rep. Glenda Dawson passed away before she could be removed from the ballot.
Blockwalkers Needed Volunteers Paid and Unpaid Now through the 18th! We absolutely need people to blockwalk in Matagorda County! Blockwalkers needed to walk West Pearland also.
Phone Banking: We only have 3 lines at the HQ, but ask to get a copy of the precinct numbers! Phone Banking at Pearland Family Medicine on the Weekend: they have 6 lines Shifts from 10am, 2pm, 4pm-6pm on Sat. 10am-4pm on Sunday.
Stop By!! Grab a Coke and some walking lists or phone numbers and HELP GET A DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE
The address for the Pearland HQ 3536 Broadway Pearland, TX 77581 The phone #281 412-0990
Thanks! Can't wait to see you all!!!
Tammy Koczur
Campaign Manager
Dr. Anthony DiNovo for State Rep.
If you want to make calls from anywhere in the state, you can start using the True Blue Action system today.
Personally, I'm going to head out to the district for Sunday-Tuesday and be a part of the campaign, have some in the field and campaign coverage for all of you, and do my part now that I've graduated from UT to try to help Dr. DiNovo. Anyone want to join me?
Although most races were decided a month ago, Texans still have the chance to elect two more great Democrats this month. Here's an update on these races and information on how you can help deliver two additional Republican defeats:
CD-23: Ciro Rodriguez
Ciro Rodriguez is running a tough race against Henry Bonilla, who has been a rubberstamp for President Bush and Tom DeLay . I'm proud to say the T DP is part of a coalition of Democratic organizations and labor officials who are working hard to provide real representation to the people of the 23rd District and send Ciro back to Washington .
But Republicans are spending millions of dollars to air misleading ads, so Ciro needs all of our support. oday, I will be in San Antonio to spend the day with the campaign, knock on doors and talk to voters. Here are a few ways you can help:
- Sign-up to phone bank or canvass by calling (210) 928-2476 in San Antonio
- If you live in another county in CD-23, call your County Chair to join their activities.
Early Vote has been extended through Saturday in Bexar and other counties. If you live in the 23rd, make sure and vote!
HD-29: Anthony DiNovo
In HD-29 (including Brazoria and Matagorda counties), Dr. Anthony DiNovo is facing three Republicans in a special election to replace Glenda Dawson, who passed away before the election.
As a doctor, husband and father, Anthony is focusing his campaign on the need for affordable health care for all Texans and ensuring a quality education for our children. To learn more about Anthony and his position on the issues, please check out his website at http://www.dinovofor... .
Also, please make a contribution and volunteer. Anthony is fortunate to enjoy support throughout his district and is running a strong campaign with the help of a TDP field staffer, but can use more boots on the ground. With a great candidate, a crowded field and expected low turnout on December 19th, Texas Dems have the opportunity to pull off an upset.
Thank you for everything you've done already to help Democrats win in Texas . I wouldn't be asking again if the stakes weren't so high and the opportunities weren't so great. Texas Democrats won many races on November 7th …let's keep the momentum up!
The Democratic challenger who lost to Rep. Glenda Dawson in the HD 29 race plans to run in the non-partisan special election that will be called to replace the deceased lawmaker. Physician Anthony DiNovo will formally announce his run tomorrow.
An election date cannot be formalized until votes are canvassed but it is widely expected that the election will be called for December 19.
Anthony DiNovo on the web. Remember, this special election will be non-partisan so I'm assuming that means no Party ID on the ballot (which is different than the "Open Primary" that we say in our Congressional Districts like TX-23 on Election Day). NOTE: This is assuming QR is right in claiming it is non-partisan rather than simply an open primary which has been questioned in the comments.
HD-29 is located just southwest of Houston and includes Matagorda and part of Brazoria counties. Here are the state's Election Stats for the district. Of course, in a Special, anything can happen as turnout gets to be around only 10,000 votes.
Depending on when this election and TX-23 get called for, I'm looking to get out and blog from the field in both of these races assuming I can afford to do so after I graduate.
