It's official. I am tired of reading that Republicans have an advantage in low turnout or special elections.
The facts simply do not support the bold claim.
Since 2005, Democrats have won or over performed in nearly every special election in Texas.
The obvious and best example of this is House District 97. In the December, "low turnout" special election, Dan Barrett won. In the November general election, Dan Barrett lost. Barrett saw a 10 point erosion in his numbers while Shelton saw a nearly 8 point gain.
House District 97 Special Election Dan Barrett (D) - 52.18%
Mark M. Shelton (R) - 47.81%
House District 97 General Election Mark M. Shelton (R) - 55.33%
Dan Barrett (D) - 42.75%
Nothing changed. Barrett was out spent in both elections. Shelton was cozy to Craddick in both elections. The only major difference is the turnout numbers. Barrett won the low turnout election, Shelton won the high turnout election.
It may seem like an overstatement, but looking back to 2005 the Republican special election not only appears to be a fallacy, it appears to be nonexistent.
2006 was a very good year for Democrats who ran in supposedly Republican favored special elections.
U. S. Representative District 23 Henry Bonilla (R) - 45.71%
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) - 54.28%
State Representative District 48 Ben Bentzin (R) - 42.38%
Donna Howard (D) - 57.61%
In 2006, Democrats won every special election they ran in with the exception of House District 29. House District 29 hasn't elected a Democrat since 2000 and no Democrat has received more than Tom Uher did in 2002 when he got 42.59% of the vote after 9/11. Before that, Uher represented a totally different district than what is now HD-29. Before the census and redistricting, Uher's district was a democratically favorable district, and since, it has been carved in a way to help elect over 100 Republicans in Texas (as was Tom DeLay's goal at the time).
You have to go back to February 2005 to see a special election contest where a Republican had a definitive win.
State Representative District 121 Paul Silbert (I) - 3.09%
Rose Spector (D) - 33.58%
Glen S. Starnes (R) - 1.38%
Joe Straus (R) - 61.93%
As Kuff wrote in 2005, House District 121 was and continues to be a Republican district. House District 121 in northeast San Antonio and stretched from Olmos Park northeast to Windcrest and north past Loop 1604.
Although Spector lost, she still did better than the Democratic challenger did against Elizabeth Ames Jones in 2000.
State Representative District 121 Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) - 68.24%
Michael G. Zapper (D) - 28.68%
J. (Jay) Moore (L) - 3.07%
While it didn't win us the seat, Democrats saw a nearly 5 point increase during the 2005 special election. In a competitive race, a 5 point swing would be the difference between victory and defeat.
In fact this phenomenon extends beyond urban districts. On February 17, 2004, Democrats were only 3.5 points away from winning the rural Senate District 1 in a special election.
State Senator, District 1 (Unexpired) Kevin Eltife (R) - 51.86%
Paul Sadler (D) - 48.13%
The truth is, Democrats do well in special elections. The reasons differ. The politics and finances differ from year to year and campaign to campaign, but the empirical data remains consistent.
As we move rapidly towards December 16, it is more important than ever for us to elect Congressman Chris Bell. The data shows it will only get harder.
(for more information about the Senate District 17 special election click here.)
Some may remember HD-29 from the December 2006 special election when Republican Mike O'Day won over Dr. Anthany DiNovo. Well, O'Day is retiring for "certain reasons" leaving this largely Republican seat open. Word today that a Democrat will be running for the seat and his name is Kevin Murphy, an attorney from Pearland.
"As I talk to people throughout Texas, I hear a lot of anger about the direction that this state is heading. There is outrage at the "taxation shell game" they play in Austin at the expense of our educational system and our transportation infrastructure. Everyday we read stories of politicians engaged in crime, cronyism and corruption weighing our great state down. I'm mad too but getting mad is not enough. It is not enough to rage about the failures of the current leaders in Austin. We have to make change happen.
"In 2007, voters across the state rejected the extremist agenda of the current Austin insiders. In 2008 we need to continue this reforming wave. With your help I will work to return responsible government to the people of Texas. I will never forget that I represent the residents of district 29, not the special interests who currently treat this state like their own personal playground. It is time to clean house. With your help, I will work to ensure that the best days for Texas are ahead of us."
The Secretary of State has reported the final results in HD-29 runoff for which Republican would replace deceased Rep. Dawson (R).
Mike O'Day 3,555 57.23%
Randy Weber 2,657 42.77%
Results from the prior special election held in December were as follows.
Anthony A. DiNovo (D) 1,644 22.44%
John Gorman (R) 116 1.58%
Mike O'Day (R) 3,509 47.91%
Randy Weber (R) 2,055 28.05%
There are 83,661 registered voters in this district. Over 35,000 voted in the general election. O'Day is beholden only to the same 3500 voters who bothered to turnout in these elections- that's 4%.
On January 9 the 80th legislative session begins, and the house will not be full. Business will go on as planned and a vote for or against Speaker Craddick will be cast, but with one less Republican than originally suspected.
Ideally, if the Democrats can vote as one to end the reign of corruption and the pay to play model Craddick has created, then all that is needed is 7 Republican votes to elect a new Speaker.
Rick Perry must have understood the importance of this single vote by announcing a near immediate special election after Glenda Dawson's passing September 12.
This is characteristic of Perry when Republican legislators vacate a seat for any reason (e.g HD-48, HD-106, HD-121).
Keep in mind that when Houston Democrat Joe Moreno passed away tragically in the early part of 2005, Perry kept the seat open for the final months of the general session and multiple special sessions.
On the other hand, as Texas Whip pointed out during the HD-48 special, Perry moves quickly when a Republican vacates a seat in order to give his party every advantage possible.
Perry has to be regretting that the race in CD-23 and HD-29 were not at the same time, but imagine the trouble Craddick would be in if Perry did what he has done to Democrats in SD-19 and HD-143.
Even though a Democrat is not on the ballot for the runoff, the Democratic caucus gains a huge advantage in electing a moderate and ethical Speaker.
This is another clear example of the advantages to a run everywhere model.
(D) Anthony A. DiNovo 1,642 22.43%
(R) John Gorman 116 1.58% (R) Mike O'Day 3,508 47.92%
(R) Randy Weber 2,054 28.06%
Total votes: 7320
It looks like the prediction from the previous post was nearly right on. Here's the difference from that prediction (though the total vote cast was near the low end that people thought). I feel as if there was 1000 more votes, DiNovo would probably be in that runoff with O'Day.
Still, most importantly, we'd like to thank Sally Smith, Tendra, and Tammy (campaign manager) plus Brian Pendleton and the TDP staff that came down for all their hard work and setting us bloggers up down here. DiNovo really performed well on election day and the late surge did it's work- it just wasn't quite enough to make it over the line. Still, this district is quickly changing and growing in population- a population change that is shifting Democratic. DiNovo did receive 40% of the vote on Election Day in an environment where it was difficult to campaign (against a deceased incumbent).
We'll be back. And soon enough, we'll take this one, too.
I've run a table of numbers in an attempt to try to predict how the last results could end up. Of course, given that the final half of Brazoria is not likely to be *exactly* the same as the first half, this can easily be off. But I have nothing else to report so here goes.
If Brazoria comes in at the same levels and percentages, this is what the following would be.
If that were true, we'd be looking at a runoff but between two Republicans. Now, It is my gut feeling that the remaining boxes are from Pearland where there are more votes and turnout was heavier. This prediction only gets us to 7200 voters which I believe is lower than the total that will be there.
While we wait for the last half of Brazoria to come in, we can look at how the results shifted on election day.
So far in Brazoria, the Election day votes by themselves are tracking as follows with the Early vote subset in (). I've updated these now that all the results are in with the final shift in both counties. -KT
Big news out from Matagorda. Election Day totals came in, pushing DiNovo to 2nd place in the total vote from that county, and forcing the overall vote into a much better position. Update: It seems that half of Brazoria has reported as well into the totals listed here. So with half of Brazoria out, we have O'Day just over 50% but falling.
DiNovo ended up with near 33% of the Matagorda vote and O'Day falling to 42% of the total. Weber fell to 3rd with only 23% of the county vote.
Overall, O'Day is now just barely over 50%. In addition, DiNovo has moved forward to within 4% points of being in a runoff. The math is there and DiNovo is doing much better on Election Day. The question is, will there be enough in Brazoria to a) force O'Day under 50% which I see as quite possible and b) enough to get DiNovo over Weber and into that runoff.
A can happen without B but I see it being much harder for B to happen without A. Of course, B happening without A doesn't really mean much because while DiNovo would be 2nd, O'Day would have over 50% and the election is over.
Mathra, Hal, and I are all at the DiNovo home with a rather cheery 'waiting' party. The music is on, the drinks are flowing, and there are snacks and food all around. People are interested in the numbers but generally, just enjoying themselves as everyone waits for Election Day. The candidate has been smiling all afternoon and continues to do so.
The campaign staff has said they never expected to break more than 20% in the early vote so it's not as if things are all that out of line with expectations right now. Of course, everyone would love to be higher than that, but it's an election that was never considered a target. Still, everyone who has come down to help has had a great time, and the candidate and campaign have been very active for what otherwise could have been a very quite race.
But the Muse is all set with a glass of wine and her Mac. Kinda similar to me except that I have an excessively pink cookie.
Again, the SOS has the Weber and O'Day names backwards so here is the Early Vote from Matagorda where it appears Weber did win and DiNovo did slightly better.
NOTE: Seeing as the SOS can't get their tables right, it is entirely possible that O'Day actually won Matagorda as well. There is no county website to verify that with like Brazoria. Either way, the DiNovo and Gorman numbers are right.
(D) Anthony A. DiNovo 95 22.04%
(R) John Gorman 6 1.39% (R) Mike O'Day 210 48.72%
(R) Randy Weber 120 27.84%
8.3% Turnout for Matagorda County
Since we have nothing else to report yet, we'll take this chance to point out that BOR is again leading Harvey Kronberg in coverage of this race, and also in pointing out that the SOS results were reported incorrectly first. =) (Love you Harvey).
Update: The SOS is updating their tables. It appears that O'Day may have indeed won Matagorda County as well, which would be in line with all the candidate's performance in Brazoria.
