This post is an attempt at analysis, explanation, and an appeal for help. The complexion of the country's leadership may well depend on the elections in Texas. I ask your indulgence to follow my perhaps incomplete research, my not-all-filled-out logic and the conlusions I draw from them. Perhaps I can make the case to help head off a real disaster. We here in Texas may understand this, but this is as much for visitors from elsewhere.
The thesis
Texas elections for US congress seats, and for State House and Senate seats, matter not just to Texans, but the whole country, perhaps for a decade or more. One of the major actors, Rick Perry, and his larger aspirations, are of concern. It's his power base, donors, and where he wants to take us that we need to pay attention to.
Some corollaries The Texas Governor's race sets the tone in our state for an off-year election, and voters are tuned in to this race. Folks are generally not paying as much attention to the state House and Senate races, nor to the US Congressional races. But the governor's race may greatly influence the down-ballot races. Turnout of loyal supporters is the key.
After the 2010 Census, Texas will add 3 US Congressional seats, possibly 4, depending on how the math comes out. The outcomes of these state races will matter because of redistricting which will be done by the Texas Legislature in the 2011-2012 session.
Let me share some thoughts, and see if you agree, or challenge my point of view.
Let us take Texas back from these GOP "leaders" who will take us to ruin, perhaps even more than W did, if given the chance. Let's not give them the chance.
Dallas-area Republican Congressman Pete Sessions continues to suck it up as head of the NRCC, turning in another lackluster fundraising quarter for the Republicans' Congressional campaign efforts. Even the pro-GOP Daily Caller failed to put a positive spin on the GOP's numbers:
The Republican fundraising arm for House races this year raised $3.2 million in December and paid off their debt, but still lags far behind their Democratic counterpart in cash on hand. The National Republican Congressional Committee, which released its numbers Friday morning, has $2.67 million in its war chest, compared to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $16.7 million. The DCCC outraised the the NRCC with a total of $3.8 in December.
Because Republican suckitude always looks better in a clear, comparative numerical array, here's a table:
Republicans
Democrats
Advantage
Raised in December
$3.2M
$3.8M
Democrats.
Current Cash On Hand
$2.67M
$16.7M
Democrats. By a factor of seven. Burn.
Total Raised in 2009
$35.8M
$55.7M
Democrats.
"Two million! That's right, we've only got two million in the bank! And there are 435 seats in Congress!"
When asked for a statement on the $2.67M cash on hand, Pete Sessions held his fingers up like Nixon and demonstrated to the illiterate tea-bagging base how many "two million" is. Despite recent success at recruiting candidates, it remains unclear whether the GOP infrastructure will be able to support them. The RNC only has $8.7M on hand. Furthermore, many incumbent Republicans are facing primary challengers from the agitated, further-right-wing Tea Party crowd. If you're that far to the right of the modern day Republicans, you may be at risk of falling off the edge of the flat earth you believe in. If the Republicans are the "Party of NO," what does that make their primary challengers? The "Party of Oh HELL NO," I suppose.
This is a particularly amusing turn of events here in Texas, where three of our Republican Congressmen are facing primary challenges: Reps. Ralph Hall, Kenny Marchant, and Mike Conaway all have primary opponents.
So, for that matter, does Pete Sessions himself, who will face a strong opponent in the general election in Grier Raggio, if he can first get past David Smith, a Dallas businessman active in the Tea Party. From Talking Points Memo:
Will he tap into the Tea Party movement, to power his campaign? "Absolutely, absolutely I will," said Smith, saying that the principles of the Tea Party movement are largely in line with his own. "I anticipate that those will be the most active supporters of my campaign, those are going to be the people who will go out for my campaign and wear out shoes, and make phone calls to people in the district."
Sessions, who somehow managed to convince the voters of CD-32 that he had any skills relevant to serving in Congress, now faces a far-right challenger in the form of a corporate financial analyst railing against the bailout. However, it does seem that Democrats and Tea Party Smith may have something to agree on:
Smith also warned the Republican Party about Sessions' performance as NRCC chairman, in the wake of NY-23: "If this is the performance we can expect from the NRCC nationwide, going into the primaries and general election next year, this is a D-minus -- and that's friendly."
We agree! Pete Sessions gets a D-minus for his performance as NRCC chair. I just hope he keeps it up. Or down, as the case may be.
First, TX-32, formerly held by Martin Frost (D) but lost to Pete Sessions (R) in Tom DeLay's mid-decade redistricting is listed as a Tier 2 "emerging race". Democrat Grier Raggio will be the Democratic nominee in a district that has been trending more Democratic over the past decade but still eluded Dallas County party activists cycle after cycle. Raggio is legitimate candidate and liked by locals so it's great to see the 32nd District make it on the DCCC's list.
The other notable district is TX-10 which is notable for its absence as a targeted race ever since Democrat Jack McDonald withdrew from running last month. Formerly a top target by the DCCC, it appears that Democrat Ted Ankrum will be carrying the party banner in the 10th District without much support from the national committee as expected.
While there are few competitive congressional races for either party thank to redistricting, having a couple dozen targeted GOP seats is a good sign in limiting the overall losses the party is expected have this November.
Texas GOP Congressman Pete Sessions as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is charged with fundraising for his party's efforts to take back the Congress. Last week, his committee suffered a major defeat in the NY-23 special election, not just because his party's nominee lost, but because his committee spent nearly $1 million in the process. Oh, and after doing so, the GOP candidate dropped out and endorsed the Democrat who won.
That expenditure wouldn't be as painful if not for the weak fundraising by the NRCC as reported in this Politico piece.
If Republicans hope to make a play for dozens of Democratic-held House seats, they'll need a well-stocked campaign account to fund all their candidates. But right now, after spending money in two contentious off-year special elections, the National Republican Congressional Committee has a long way to go to raise enough money to compete across the national map.
The National Republican Congressional Committee ended September with just $4.3 million in the bank, less than one-third of the $14.7 million banked by its Democratic counterpart. So far this cycle, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions hasn't improved the fundraising fortunes of the committee - he's raised $10 million less than his predecessor, Rep. Tom Cole, did at this same point in the past election cycle.
And the committee took an additional financial hit in the New York 23rd District special election, spending nearly $1 million on a race in which the GOP nominee, Dede Scozzafava, ended up quitting and then endorsing the Democratic candidate. Worse, the NRCC's decision to support Scozzafava's campaign has played a role in alienating conservative donors.
Pete Sessions certainly is no John Cornyn when it comes to fundraising. Maybe he's distracted by his Democratic challenger Grier Raggio who has raised over $25,000 in wake of Sessions's comments last week suggesting that it's ok for health insurance companies to categorically charge woman higher health insurance premiums than men.
Despite repeated campaign promises to always be in the District on weekends, Pete Sessions is working overtime today to kill health care reform.
His latest outburst on the House floor drew "a burst of chatter" in the room, kind of like it does in bi-partisan settings here at home when Sessions gets stuck for an answer and says the first thing that comes to mind, usually a tangent about "socialism" or "Nancy Pelosi."
In his latest gaffe, Pete Sessions defended the insurance industry's practice of charging higher rates to women, comparing the practice to charging higher rates for smokers. Transcript over the jump...
