A version of this diary was cross posted at Daily Kos.
Out here in the lonely boondocks of the gerrymandered 32nd Congressional district, no one does polls, so I have no hard data to back up my optimism about Eric Roberson's chances for winning, but today, I saw yet another hopeful sign that things are going our way--the Dallas Morning News' endorsement of incumbent Pete Sessions.
Their praise of Sessions is almost "dog whistle" politics against him. Follow me over the jump, and let's take a look at what they said, and how this is a win for us...
Probably the most difficult thing about being a SessionsWatcher is actually seeing Pete Sessions in person. It's kinda like hanging out in the rain forest with binoculars, trying to catch a glimpse of a rare bird that only shows up every two years, then flits away into the night.
After last night's debate--which only lasted half an hour--Sessions made a hasty retreat out the door of the elementary school cafetorium, instead of hanging around with constituents, enjoying cookies and coffee and listening to the other debates of the evening...
(Be sure to check out the interview. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
I had the chance to meet Eric Roberson, who is running for CD32 up in Dallas, while I was in Austin for the Democratic convention, but due to my short stay our schedules didn't allow for an interview. Fortunately, he was going to be coming to Houston shortly afterward, and I took advantage of that to rectify the omission. We're all aware of the recent IVR poll that shows him trailing Rep. Pete Sessions by only nine points. Now you can hear what he has to say on a variety of issues, from Iraq and FISA to immigration and why he calls himself a former Republican. The interview is available here, along with links to other candidate interviews I did at the convention.
The Eric Roberson campaign commissioned a poll of CD32. As with earlier polls of CD7 and CD10, the population sampled was prior voters, and results were weighted to match historical turnout. These polls are designed to be apples-to-apples comparisons with earlier elections, looking at how much the district has shifted rather than projecting new turnout patterns. As with the other Congressional polls, I first asked about McCain v Obama, then Cornyn v Noriega and then the Congressional matchup. While there was minor variation in the responses, margins were identical in all three races.
581 likely voters polled 6/4/2008, margin of error 4.1%
Sessions (R) 52%
Roberson (D) 43%
Third party/no vote 3%
Undecided 1%
Excluding third party/no vote
Sessions (R) 54%
Roberson (D) 45%
Undecided 1%
--
Other recent Texas polls for comparison
CD10, June 2 - McCaul 52% - Doherty 46%
CD7, April 8 - Culberson 57% - Skelly 39%
I find a nine point lead for Pete Sessions and the other Republicans, down from a fifteen point margin in the 2006 election. Three percent said they would vote third party or not vote, in line with the 2.3% that a Libertarian candidate received in 2006. Only one percent said they were undecided in the Congressional race, while the Presidential and Senate races had about 4% undecided.
Questions were posed in this format:
In the 32nd District Congressional race, the candidates are Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Eric Roberson
If you would vote for Republican Pete Sessions, press 1
If you would vote for Democrat Eric Roberson, press 2
If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 3
If you are undecided, press 4
The order of candidate names and choices is randomized. As of last week, I have changed my format to add the Libertarian candidate's name, but this poll was conducted prior to that change.
Additional questions requested by the Roberson campaign were asked after the three matchup questions so that there would be no bias. Sessions was viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 39%, with the remainder neutral. Roberson's name recognition was low, even among those who supported him. Top issue was the Economy, followed by the War.
Illegal Immigration, Change and Healthcare also received support at lower levels.
It was just a week or so ago that Mr. Roberson was all so holier-than-thou and called my call for the FEC to look into his questionable campaign practices off-base and without merit.
Well, guess what folks? I just checked his schedule and all those GOTV phone parties that he had scheduled for his boss's office have all been moved to the law office of another of his supporters...someone who has NEVER VOTED IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY. [Isn't it interesting how many people who have never voted Democratic want to join with the candidate who has never voted Democratic. And this is the guy who is going to rally EVERYONE to his side?]
Why do you think he moved his campaign events? Most likely because his boss was not willing to make an in-kind donation of the use of his phone system. We will see if the other shoe falls and we find that his boss is not willing to have him run his campaign out of his office since that, too, is a questionable campaign practice.
Stay tuned, folks, there just may be other surprises for the "expert" on FEC rules the guy who keep the phones hot to the FEC office but didn't bother to read the rules. :-) This is STEVE LOVE and I approve this message. :-)
In 2004 many North Texan's poured blood, sweat, and tears into Democrat Martin Frost's race against Republican Pete Sessions in what then was the newly drawn Congressional District 32 in Dallas. Tom Delay gerrymandered Frost out of his Tarrant County seat, but the veteran Democrat offered the best shot at taking a seat clearly drawn to solidify Republican control of congress. Although the former 13-term congressman lost, Frost's campaign is what helped blaze a trail for Democrats like Eric Roberson to step forward and run in a year where our Party has wind at its back.
CD 32 voters have a compelling choice to make on April 8th and Burnt Orange Report heartily encourages voters to cast their ballot for Eric Roberson. This Navy veteran, trial attorney, family man, and community leader is a former Republican, turned Democrat, who represents, and articulates, the best form of candidate one can field against a Republican rubber stamp in Pete Sessions. In a district that clearly leans Republican, Roberson's "I've seen the light" message is the right hymnal to sing, at the right time, in order to defeat Pete Sessions.
Eric is a proud Democrat who, as a veteran, understands the sacrifices our men and women in uniform are making in occupying Iraq. Roberson believes our troops can come home within 12-18 months while simultaneously pressuring the Iraqi government to come to a political solution.
Roberson believes that no president is above the law and deplores the numerous attempts, by means of signing statements and otherwise, to weaken constitutional checks and balances.
And, Eric Roberson believes it is time we as a nation have the political will to pass comprehensive immigration policy that takes into account the economic impact such an issue has, and such a policy will have, on our nation.
As with many Texans these days, the Republican Party is leaving many constituents behind with their disingenuous policies, skewed political agenda, divisive political strategies, and incompetent leadership. The large tent that the Democratic Party offers has allowed good, qualified candidates like Jim Webb, Kirk England, and Eric Roberson to join our ranks as a champion for our Party's values.
The Burnt Orange Report enthusiastically encourages you to cast your ballot for Eric Roberson in the runoff election for Congressional District 32 on April 8th.
