TX-Sen: Poll Gives Early Snapshot in Head to Head Matchup

by: Matt Glazer

Wed Feb 25, 2009 at 11:02 AM CST

Today, Public Policy Polling released polling data for both potential primaries if KBH were to win or vacate her seat.

We tested Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, Attorney General Greg Abbott, and state Senator Florence Shapiro on the Republican side against Houston Mayor Bill White and former Comptroller John Sharp on the Democratic side.

The first major problem I see with this is that it ignores the slew of announces or explicitly interested Republicans looking to run in Texas.  That list includes former Secretary of State Roger Williams, Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams to name a few.

This list includes three higher profile, statewide Republicans.  It is curious that there is no data on these three declared candidates.

That being said, nobody is close to crossing the 50% plus 1 mark.  

Abbott, who has not announced plans to seek the seat, appears to be the strongest initial candidate. 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him compared to only 25% that view him negatively. He leads Sharp 44-36 and White 42-36 in possible contests.

What is interesting here is that White and Sharp seems to only be polling at the natural or suppressed Democratic base.  However Abbott v. White pushes Abbott down 2 points.

Dewhurst is almost as strong, with a 43/30 favorability breakdown. He leads Sharp and White by slightly more narrow margins than Abbott, 42-36 over the former and 42-37 over the latter.

Again, this poll only seems to show Democrats win Democrats and Republicans win the Republicans.  That means the independent voters and soft voters either don't know or don't care.

It seems inevitable that one of those heavyweights will get into the race if there is indeed a vacancy, but we also tested Shapiro to see how competitive the contest would be if the GOP ended up nominating one of the less well known candidates who have already made their intentions to seek the seat known. Shapiro leads White 37-36 but trails Sharp 37-34, an indication the race could pretty much be a tossup if a more well known Republican doesn't run.

This makes sense.  Dewhurst and Abbott have been on statewide ballots multiple times, Florence Shapiro has not. Her base of support seems to be close to Rick Perry's 2006 election numbers.  It also indicates if a Democratic candidate can get the resources need to run an aggressive statewide campaign, this could become a fun race to watch.

The PPP poll seems to prove this point.

...it's worth noting that Sharp and White have a lot more room to grow in terms of name recognition. 43% of the electorate has no opinion of White and 41% has none of Sharp, figures much higher than the 27% for Dewhurst and 32% for Abbott.

All this being said, there is still no race.  This is all a fun game brought to you by speculation and hypotheticals. Because this poll doesn't go through the whole field of Republicans, it leaves us with knowing what many inside political circles have been guessing for a while. With no resources, Democrats are behind.  

Bill White Raises $640,000 in 15 Days for U.S. Senate Campaign

by: David Mauro

Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 08:12 PM CST

The Houston Chronicle has reported that Houston Mayor Bill White raised more than $640,000 in the final 15 days of 2008 for his campaign for the U.S. Senate.

White began the year with $737,000 on hand. That number includes a $120,287 contribution he made to his own campaign.

More than $640,000 in 15 days is a very impressive number. In 2007, Senate candidate Rick Noriega reported raising about $570,000 after close to three months of fundraising. RG Ratcliffe pointed out that in fifteen days White raised roughly one quarter of what Noriega raised during his entire campaign.

John Sharp, the only other declared Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, did not start raising money until this year. Like White, Sharp is expected to contribute some of his own money to his campaign.

On the Republican side of the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchsion, former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams began the year with $131,000 on hand, while Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones has $145,000 and state Sen. Florence Shapiro has $375,556.

All of this and we do not even know when the election will be.

Elizabeth Ames Jones Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate

by: Matt Glazer

Fri Dec 12, 2008 at 00:21 PM CST

Jones, who had been saying she was open to the Senate prospect, says on her filing that she's running in 2012. That's the year Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat will be open if she doesn't resign before then. Hutchison, who's looking into a 2010 run for governor, has said she won't resign any earlier than the end of next year. If she does quit early, and depending on her timing, Gov. Rick Perry would appoint an interim senator and set a special election to election someone to serve out her term.

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (Republican) and Houston Mayor Bill White (Democrat) are both expected to announce their intentions next week.

Williams has gone as far as telling Dave Montgomery at PoliTex, an announcement is imminent.

The former Texas Secretary of State told PoliTex Monday that he plans to announce an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate seat occupied by Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is contemplating a race for governor in 2010.  Expect the announcement "within the next day or two," he said.

"We're getting ready to go," he said in a telephone interview, "so it's imminent."

The odd part of all this is Kay Bailey Hutchison's move to run for Governor, has created a very crowded field for Senator, but the Governor's race appears to be a Republican only contest right now.

Update: Apparently Roger Williams didn't want to wait until next week.  Today Williams announced he has formed an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate race.  The Statesman has the full story here and they also highlight some other names on both sides of the aisle that may enter into the contest.

Those names include, Republicans Sen. Florence Shapiro, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Michael Williams, the chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission.

Democrats who are rumored to be looking at the race include former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio, state Rep. Richard Pena Raymond, and state Rep. Rafael Anchia.

Elizabeth Ames Jones To Run for Hutchison's Senate Seat

by: David Mauro

Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 01:09 AM CDT

A few weeks ago, we reported that state Sen. Florence Shapiro (R-Plano) was forming an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate.

Now, Dallas Blog is reporting that another Republican, Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, will enter the race.

When Jones first showed interest in the race, McBlogger said a general election against either Shapiro or Jones would "be like kicking a puppy" for Democrats.

But don't expect Shapiro and Jones to be the only Republicans to enter the race.

While Shapiro would likely have an edge against Jones, Democrats will likely be faced with at least one more well-known Republican opponent in this race. 

Former Secretary of State (and Republican Victory 2008 Chairman) Roger Williams, Attorney General Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams are also reportedly considering the race, which could come up as a special election in 2010 if Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for governor.

On the Democratic side, Houston Mayor Bill White is rumored to be considering a statewide run in 2010, whether it be for governor or senator.

Some have speculated that White will run for whatever seat Hutchison is not running for.  

Former Comptroller John Sharp is also rumored to be considering the senate race. 

Vince Leibowitz has more on this story at Capitol Annex. 

Ames Jones: More Oil! More Gas!

by: Phillip Martin

Sun Oct 14, 2007 at 08:57 AM CDT

• Worldwide energy consumption is expected to increase 40 percent in the next 25 years, and widespread adoption of alternative energy sources is decades away.

  It's a traditional talking point of conservatives to talk about effective use of alternative energies as if it's going to happen around the same time as we have flying cars. The fact, though, is that renewable energy and energy efficient technology are available today. Wind and solar power are available now -- businesses just need to invest in them.

  Modifying our personal behavior to conserve energy by doing such things as using better light bulbs, insulating our homes, and buying better appliances is simple. Republicans argue that forcing anyone to modify their behavior in such a way is unfair and unrealistic -- but remember, these are the same people who want to force families to love one another.

• Strict environmental rules and targeted tax credits for drilling in hard-to-reach reservoirs are tools that have kept Texas the nation's top producer of oil and natural gas.

  Don't get too impressed by those "strict environmental rules" -- especially when you remember that Houston competed with L.A. for dirtiest air. Or the fact that, " Texas leads the nation in the number of treatment plants and industrial facilities that fail to meet pollution standards for the wastewater they dump into rivers and streams." (Source).

• Our country's energy dependency makes us dangerously vulnerable in economic terms and compromises our national security.

  Not drilling for oil in the Arctic Wildlife National Refuge (which Ames Jones advocates for) endangers our national security --- but starting a war in Iraq makes us totally safe.

If we really want to protect our energy dependence, then we need to live cleaner lives. Oh, and maybe listen a little to that Nobel prize winner.

Jim Dunnam: "The Enemy of My Friend is My Enemy"

by: Matt Glazer

Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 06:30 PM CDT

No one predicted we would be this strong this fast. Not in 2001, when the Legislative Redistrict Board drew a map designed to elect 98 Republicans -- almost two-thirds of the Texas House. And not in 2002, when 88 Republicans were elected to the House.

I believe the secret to our success rests in our refusal to give up the hard fight for our constituents and our ability to work together. But as we get away from Austin, we don't always know what is going on with our Democratic House colleagues. If you don't know what's happening to our friends, you should.

Here's but one example:

Recently, Rep. Allen Vaught politely declined to meet with a potential opponent of Dan Branch. Allen explained that, in the greater interest of Dallas County, he did not think he should be personally involved in county House races. This is Allen's choice, and certainly understandable.

Imagine Allen's surprise when he received a copy of the invitation to former Rep. Bill Keffer's fundraiser this month. Of course, you can guess correctly that Linda Harper-Brown's name is on it; heck, she did the same against Republican incumbents during the 2006 primaries. But you might be surprised by some of the other host names: Joe Driver, Ken Paxton, Jim Jackson, and Jodie Laubenberg. Oh, and Rep. Dan Branch. But wait, you say, Joe Driver isn't like Harper-Brown? And Paxton has always treated other members with respect, hasn't he? And this is how Mr. Branch says thank you to Allen Vaught?

This is being duplicated across the state. These incidents are neither isolated nor uncalculated. We must recognize the great effort our Republican colleagues are making, as incumbent elected officials, to actively campaign against Democratic House members. We must understand that when our Republican colleagues go after one of us, they are going after all of us. You might be in a safe district and say to yourself, "Well, they are not coming after me," but the truth is that when they attack one of us, they attack all of us. Their goal is to weaken our collective voice by defeating us one by one.

(A must read, plenty more below the fold)