A total of 22,636 votes were cast today in person (23,981 with mail ballots). So while the in person votes were slightly below yesterday, overall turnout bumped up.
Sadly, the good times could not last and UT finally stopped voting more day over day. Nonetheless, it was still the second highest location of the day behind Randalls Research/Braker which has been the lead site for 4 of the 5 days. All sites have now cast more than 1,000 votes each.
A handfull of locations have had day over day declines all week. Both Fiesta Marts, Randalls at Brodie, Randalls South Mopac, Megasite North, Megasite South, and the Carver Library ended that trend today with an uptick of voters.
Site that continue to have declined each day this week are the Howson Library and Parque Zaragoza Center.
A total of 131,475 votes have been cast in 5 days in Travis County, or 21.58% of all voters. This 5-day total is equal to 60% of the total early vote cast in 2004.
Total Early Vote Projections-
As shown in the graph below, stability in the models that matter most with the other ones pointing towards convergence. No change from yesterday's prediction.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 350,000
This weekend is the only weekend Texans can vote early.
With your help, we could win the election this weekend. The more we increase early vote turnout, the more we decrease election day confusion and long lines.
Get involved by joining us at one of these big events. Join your fellow Democrats and help turn Texas blue!
FRIDAY
"Smart Women Stick Together" Fundraiser Honoring our Democratic Women Candidates
Tonight, October 24
5:30 - 7:30pm
Home of Council Member Sheryl Cole
4101 Wildwood Road
Austin, TX 78722
Suggested Donation - $25
Click here to donate
SATURDAY
"Super Saturday Volunteer Breakfast" Featuring Congressman Lloyd Doggett
Free Breakfast Tacos
Saturday, October 25
10:00am - 2:00pm
TCDP Headquarters
1107 North I-35
Austin, TX 78702
Click here to volunteer
SUNDAY
"Latinos Coming Together" Dallas Cowboys Tailgate
Free BBQ
Sunday, October 26
Noon - 3:00pm
TCDP Headquarters
1107 North I-35
Austin, TX 78702
Click here to volunteer
There's only 10 days left, so please step up to the plate. We're asking you to either donate or volunteer, and help us turn Texas blue.
Thanks for your support. Let's keep up the momentum!
First things first. I'll admit when something needs fixing, and after this many days, I confirmed what I thought might be a problem. Because we've been abnormally successful in getting mail ballots in this year (more so than any other year in Travis County), it naturally was going to mess up models which are based on past turnout patterns... which don't account for mail ballots being much of a factor.
Because of this, I have changed the formulas to shift the huge balance of mail ballots reported on the first day to simply be tacked on to the final projection, instead of being part of it. This means, that instead of having the models slowly correct for it each day and all drift downwards in their projections, that now, we'll get a more accurate system. I've even rerun everything retroactively and as you can see by comparing the two images below, it's made a huge difference for stability.
OLD
NEW
So expect to start seeing that second chart in future updates. Plus it will be resized and zoomed in a bit more for details sake.
Mail Ballots- Another 247 received today
Total VBM Cast in 2004: 9,589
2008 VBM Cast in 4 days: 10,405
In Person Voting-
A total of 22,879 votes were cast today in person (23,126 with mail ballots) which is the lowest day so far, though this tracks what happened day to day in 2004. We can expect to see about the same tomorrow, maybe a slight uptick.
The University of Texas early vote site has the honor of being the only site in Travis County to increase its vote total each day. UT, Randalls @ Research/Braker, and the Tax Office Mega site continue to be the standout locations with over 7,000 votes cast at each total over 4 days. Parque Zaragoza, Goodwill Industries, and the Carver Library are the only 3 sites who have yet to cast 1,000 votes, though to note, these are all new locations this year. There is definately something to be said about keeping consistant early vote sites to improve turnout.
A total of 107,494 votes have been cast in 4 days in Travis County, or 17.64% of all voters. As of today, we have now had more ballots cast early, than in the entire 2006 EV period and for the 2008 Democratic Primary. This 4-day total is equal to 50% of the total early vote cast in 2004. We will likely surpass the 2004 EV total around Tuesday of next week.
Total Early Vote Projections-
As noted earlier, I have updated all the models. As such, instead of providing you each day with a total early vote projection that would drop each day, this "resets" the models to be more accurate to begin with. As such, this new projection is more accurate and less likely to be revised as often. I'm now more or less confident in this number and only two major events may shift it- weekend voting, and the intensity of the last day spike which is more unpredictable.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 350,000
This is the type of stuff that is most useful. From Quorum Report.
A reliable Republican source tells QR that a computer analysis of early voting in Harris County indicates that Democrats have had a very good first two days of early voting.
By matching up early voters with their primary histories, our source tells us that Democrats outvoted Republicans 2.6 to 1 on the first day of early voting and 2.4 to 1 on day 2.
In addition, early voting on the gulf coast areas most affected by Hurrican Ike show no sign of low turnout. In fact, it is much the opposite.
First 3 Days of EV & VBM
Galveston 2008: 22,326 (11.81% turnout)
Galveston 2004: 13,699 (7.37% turnout)
Fort Bend 2008: 38,533 (12.89% turnout)
Fort Bend 2004: 16,221 (6.38% turnout)
Harris 2008: 160,921 (8.29% turnout)
Harris 2004: 73,779 (3.81% turnout)
Here's tonight's update. I spend a lot of time working on building a spreadsheet for charting the demographic analysis. I'll try to team up with Matt Glazer on getting that filled in tomorrow for the county.
In the meantime, let's look at today's voting. Here are the key files for download.
With 728 received today, 10,158 Mail Ballot have been cast. That's now more than the total of mail ballots cast in the entire 2004 Early Vote period.
Total VBM Cast in 2004: 9,589
2008 VBM Cast in 3 days: 10,158
In Person Voting-
A total of 24,119 votes were cast today in person (24,847 with mail ballots) which is similar to Monday's total. The Randalls at Research and Braker is going gangbusters with over 2,000 votes cast and the University of Texas is second with over 1800. These two site are the only to increase each day of voting so far.
A total of 84,384 voters have been cast in 3 days in Travis County, or 13.85% of all voters. Those three days are equal to 39% of all votes cast early in the 2004 General, 85% of all votes cast early in the 2006 General.
Total Early Vote Projections-
There was a small correction to yesterday's numbers from the county which combined with today's data, shifted all of the projections downward and we're finally starting to see some narrowing of the models.
As the chart indicates, the models from the 2005 Constitutional, 2006 General, 2008 Presidential, and combined models all are agreeing on the 425,000 mark for Travis County Early Vote.
But for these models to be correct, that suggest that 80,000 people will vote on the last day of early voting. I think this may be one case, when that sounds too high for my gut check and I'm going to go with the more conservative projection. A couple more days and I'll re-evaluate that. The 2006 General Election model was the most accurate this spring, and it's where most everything else is trying to point to so who knows. I'd love to be wrong.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 375,000
OK everyone. This is the first update of the night. It might take me a while to get through the Demographic breakouts so that will come either late tonight or tomorrow morning.
In the meantime, let's look at today's voting. Here are the key files for download.
As I expected, the mail ballots dropped off by about 90% today because yesterday's report included everything that came in the prior weeks. It was still over 1,000 for the day which is amazing. It wasn't quite enough to push us over the total mail ballots cast in 2004, but we'll pass it tomorrow for sure. It's still incredible that on the second day we effectively have as many mail ballots cast as in all of 2004. That speaks well to the coordinated's efforts with VBM and VBM chase this year. Effective.
Total VBM Cast in 2004: 9,589
2008 VBM Cast in 2 days: 9,430
In Person Voting-
While the total vote cast today is down from yesterday (26,201 down from 32,607) we were actually UP today among in person voting (25,171 up from 24,207). That means nearly 50,000 people have voting an early vote site already and 58,808 Travis County Voters have already voted when you include Mail Ballots. That's more voters in 2 days than cast Early Votes during the entire 2 week period for the 2004 Democratic Primary, 2005 Constitutional Election, 2006 Democratic Primary, and 2007 Constitutional Election. That's equal to 27% of the total 2004 General Election Early Vote and and 60% of the total 2008 Democratic Primary Early Vote.
In other words, 9.65% of all Travis County Voters have cast a ballot.
Total Early Vote Projections-
Now that we have two days of data, and since I corrected Monday's data due to the lack of Monday voting in 2006 and 2008 primaries, we've actually seen the predicted turnout increase by all models. It is my expectation that the more accurate models to compare to will be those that had higher quantities of voters in the past- specifically the 2004 General, 2006 General, and 2008 Dem Primary.
The projected total Travis Early Vote ranges from a low of 377,796 (04 GEN MODEL) to a high of 579,537 (07 CONT MODEL). I expect to start seeing the more accurate models point to a 400,000 to 425,000 total early vote projection in the next couple of days.
"Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 390,000 (64% of Registered)
Travis County election officials are projecting that upwards of 440,000 people will vote in the election, or about 75% turnout. That would be an increase from the 355,000 people who cast ballots in 2004 which resulted in a 65% turnout for the presidential race.
In order to cope with the increased demand on the elections process, they are opening two additional "Mega-Vote" sites for the Early Vote period which runs from Oct 20th - Oct 31st.
Austin American-Statesman: One site will be at the West Tower Village shopping center on West Gate Boulevard in South Austin. The other will be at 5335 Airport Blvd., next to the Travis County clerk's office in the old Chair King building. The mega sites should have 35 to 50 voting machines each, County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir said.
I hope they are ready for the Early Vote at the University of Texas. In the 2004 election, they had to truck in 10 additional voting booths because of the turnout surge after the first day.
As President of the Irving Democratic Club I am very interested in finding out how other local clubs are planning to encourage straight ticket Democratic voting in early vote.
This is a daily feature through the early vote period of the TX primary.
The following links take you to spreadsheets based on the numbers from the Secretary of State's website that shows the early vote totals for the 14 counties with the highest numbers of registered voters:
I've put together the list of what I think are the top 10 YouTube clips of this Presidential primary campaign. I've done my best to find clips that are well known and had (at least some) influence and/or interest. I think you'll enjoy the list.
Feel free to disagree with my order in the comments, and let me know which ones I missed. Watch all 10 videos below the fold...
