Multiple people have asked me today for my thoughts on the first day of early voting. While we don't have turnout numbers for the Top 15 Counties by population yet, we do have some report for individual counties who are comparing them to the 2006 numbers. We'll start having better analysis after tonight when counties are allowed to release the individual voter data for the previous day's voters (there's a 24 hour delay built in by law). From there, political junkies with voter files will start matching those who have voted to their previous voting history to glean more detailed insight.
So what do we know? Turnout seems to be up- but for whom remains the question. It's a mixed bag.
Harris County (Houston)
Home of the longest ballot in the state, and arguably the most important county for Bill White- turnout is up. 26,051 voted early on the first day of Early Voting in Person yesterday as compared to 8,545 that voted on the first day of the 2006 election. That's over a 200% increase. Democratic consultant Marc Campos compared the 2010 turnout by voting site to the 2008 election. End result- "At first glance however, it looks like the GOP areas are bit more enthused here in Harris County - at least on the first day."
Hidalgo County (South Texas)
Though one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, Democrats often suffer from an underwhelming general election turnout as most local races are uncontested. But with over 6,000 votes cast in person yesterday, we saw a nearly 300% increase in turnout relative to the first day in 2006. Polling places at the UT-Pan America campus (read: Democratic) aren't even open until next week. Locals claim turnout is from Democratic boxes and driven in part by contested county commission and school board races. (If only we could have more contested general election races in every county along the border!) Perry operatives claim it is due to their amazing social media program.
Travis County (Austin)
With 10,058 votes cast in person Monday, we saw a 100% increase over 2006 numbers. Vote-by-mail was up about 140% from four years ago. That's normally a good sign in liberal Austin- but a word of caution. In 2006, the University of Texas voting site was #1 in turnout out of all 21 early vote sites. This year it was #10 our of 20. In raw votes- UT was up a paltry 4%- the lowest of any site-to-site comparison. Early Vote sites Southwest, West, and Northwest saw 100%-300% increases in turnout over 4 years ago. And all Eastern (read: minority/Democratic) early vote sites combined barely break 1,000 votes, less than 10% of the total. That reflects where the 2-3 hot state house races are in the county- we'll know more after we can start matching voters to the voter file tonight. One good sign- rumor has it the vote-by-mail program was efficient this year and Democrats have anywhere from a 2-1 to 3-1 margin among that pool of votes. That will quickly become eclipsed as the week progresses.
Dallas County (Dallas)
By the end of Monday, 14,530 people had voted early. That shattered the 2006 first-day total of 9,111 early voters. That's a 60% increase over 2006 levels, less of an increase than other urban counties, but an increase nonetheless. Election administrators think total turnout could hit 40-50% in the county compared to 34% in 2006. Turnout is up all over the county, but the northern early vote sites are drawing the most voters. I don't know Dallas that well, so leave a comment if you have some insight into this. I'm not reading anything in particular out of this as of yet.
Tarrant County (Fort Worth)
On Monday, 9,700 voters cast ballots, a 30% increase from the 7,497 people who voted on the first day early voting for the 2006 election. So Fort Worth voters are slightly more excited to vote than in 2006, and being Fort Worth, which is still a Republican leaning county, I'll take that as a good thing for now.
14,673 people cast ballots Monday. In 2006, the most recent midterm election year, the opening day of early voting attracted only 8,591 voters. That's a more respectable 70% increase in turnout over 4 years ago. Not much info other than this, which isn't really great news.
On the West Side, at Memorial Branch Library, turnout was noticeably slower than in other parts of the city. The issue of West Side voter enthusiasm was a driving force behind a standing-room-only [Bill] White campaign gathering at a West Side restaurant.
Nueces County (Corpus Christi)
No numbers- but described as hot and heavy (seriously). High turnout in Nueces can cut both ways. Republicans are making gains here and weakness in Nueces is why Congressman Ortiz is suddenly funding himself on the watchlist for closer than need be congressional races. If there's one county where there could be surprise Democratic losses on November 2nd, it's Nueces County. It's fast growing problem and in the long term Democrats need to get things in order here, lest it become the first Hispanic Republican county. I know it sounds bad, but part of the problem here is Congressman Ortiz's machine, which is getting rusty- it lost some primary races this spring.
I'm sure there are more reports from the 246 other counties in Texas- if readers find anything interesting please post it in the comments. And if readers have any other insight or analysis of the major urban centers, post that in the comments as well. We'll know more once we can start analyzing actual voters in the next 24 hours instead of just general locational turnout.
Total Early Voting Period - 300,218 (represents 49.28% of 609,224 registered voters)
For perspective, in 2004, this was the EV to EDay split.
222,085 EV (40% of registered voters)
133,623 EDay (24% of registered voters)
355,708 Total (64% of registered voters)
So needless to say, that will be busted quite easily. In 2004, 62% of the votes that were cast were cast early and only 38% on election day. If that holds true this year, we will indeed hit the 80% turnout mark.
1,037 received today which is the 3rd highest day of mail ballots returned. We're at about 65% above the total returned in 2004 and there will probably be over 1,000 returned tomorrow.
Total VBM Cast in 2004: 9,589
2008 VBM Cast so far : 15,304
In Person Voting-
A total of 30,370 were cast in person today for a total (with mail ballots) of 31,407 for the day. 261,155 have voted in Travis County now which is 43% of all registered voters. With the additional voting hours at the mega sites and turnout today being a little above what I was expecting, we'd only need 39,000 votes tomorrow to cross the 300,000 mark and if over 43,500 vote tomorrow, we'll pass 50% total turnout of all registered voters in Travis County during the Early Vote ALONE.
Total Early Vote Projection-
At this point, it's all down to how many people vote tomorrow. The Travis County elections division is predicting over 50,000 voters tomorrow which would put us at over 310,000. So the actual number is totally dependent on tomorrow and as such, our projection will split the difference and increase.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 305,000
A total of 25,945 were cast in person today for a total (with mail ballots) of 26,440 for the day. 229,575 have voted in Travis County now which is 37.7% of all registered voters. That is now 105% of the vote cast in the 2004 Early Vote.
Total Early Vote Projections-
Today was slightly below projected, but given there are only 2 days of voting left, we're counting on a reasonable bump. If 30,000 vote tomorrow and 44,000 on Friday, we'll still hit 300,000 early voters but it will be close. If we can get to 305,000 early voters, then we'll be able to claim that over 50% turnout in Travis County with just the early vote alone.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 300,000
A total of 23,715 were cast in person today for a total (with mail ballots) of 24,392 for the day. 203,143 have voted in Travis Conuty now, just shy of the total that voted early in 2004.
Total Early Vote Projections-
Lowering it again today because voting has not picked up as much as expected. This could fall under 300,000 if the last couple of days don't have that much of a surge. I'm not sure which way Halloween will affect us.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 300,000
A total of 21,387 votes were cast today in person (22,273 with mail ballots). This is nearly up to last week's levels. Tomorrow is when the final spike should start taking effect with a noticeable rise each day. If not, then we'll miss the 300,000 early vote number.
Most things seem normal except for the Carver Library having less voted on Monday than on Saturday. Just 87 people?
A total of 178,536 votes have been cast in 8 days in Travis County, or 29.31% of all voters. This 8-day total is equal to 82%% of the total early vote cast in 2004. Tomorrow or Wednesday we'll pass the 2004 mark.
Total Early Vote Projections-
Today was the bigger test for me compared to this weekend's underperformance for the models and it came in lower than expected. So I'm revising it downwards. Because of the unknown of the last day surge, this could slip below the 300,000 mark. Not that we should be disappointed with the level of early vote we've had- it's still record breaking. Have to leave some voters for Election Day!
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 305,000
A total of 8,463 votes were cast today in person. Sunday is always the lowest day, though this was slightly lower than would have been predicted for today. Still, I'm not reading much into that at this point.
All sites were naturally down from Saturday other than the South Megasite.
A total of 154,939 votes have been cast in 7 days in Travis County, or 25.43% of all voters. This 7-day total is equal to 71% of the total early vote cast in 2004.
Total Early Vote Projections-
While some slight drift downward as a result in the less reliable models, overall, unchanged.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 330,000
A total of 14,544 votes were cast today in person (15,002 with mail ballots). This is a steeper drop than expected for a Saturday.
The University of Texas, as expected, had its usual 90% weekend dropoff so no cause for alarm there. The additional drop off today, if I had to guess, was because the Longhorns were playing- not kidding. Plus, since no voting sites are located at malls like in 2004, we missed out on those sites that actually increased on the weekend. The Round Rock Performing Arts Center managed to squeak out an increase Saturday which was the only site to do so.
Howson Library and Parque Zaragoza Center had their 6th day of voting declines, though it is unlikely they would have stopped that today or tomorrow anyways, being the weekend.
A total of 146,476 votes have been cast in 6 days in Travis County, or 24.04% of all voters. This 6-day total is equal to 67% of the total early vote cast in 2004.
Total Early Vote Projections-
As shown in the graph below, the lower than expected turnout today affected all models this time with a noticeable. While this may be a fluke for reasons mentioned above, and tomorrow could come in slightly stronger if the "pews to the polls" has an effect, I'm going to drop the EV prediction.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 330,000
A total of 22,636 votes were cast today in person (23,981 with mail ballots). So while the in person votes were slightly below yesterday, overall turnout bumped up.
Sadly, the good times could not last and UT finally stopped voting more day over day. Nonetheless, it was still the second highest location of the day behind Randalls Research/Braker which has been the lead site for 4 of the 5 days. All sites have now cast more than 1,000 votes each.
A handfull of locations have had day over day declines all week. Both Fiesta Marts, Randalls at Brodie, Randalls South Mopac, Megasite North, Megasite South, and the Carver Library ended that trend today with an uptick of voters.
Site that continue to have declined each day this week are the Howson Library and Parque Zaragoza Center.
A total of 131,475 votes have been cast in 5 days in Travis County, or 21.58% of all voters. This 5-day total is equal to 60% of the total early vote cast in 2004.
Total Early Vote Projections-
As shown in the graph below, stability in the models that matter most with the other ones pointing towards convergence. No change from yesterday's prediction.
Today's "Best Guess" Total Travis EV Projection: 350,000
