(Sounds like a blast this weekend. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Some people talk about putting the Democratic Party back on Main Street - the determined troops of Bastrop County are actually doing it! Heads up for those interested in getting OUT of Austin during what should be a bustling weekend:
Come out and support our candidates in important swing races with the Bastrop County Democratic Party this Saturday (9/27, 11am-3pm) as we hold our Precinct 4 Tailgate Rally in Veteran's Memorial Park (a.k.a Elgin City Park), at Main and Depot Streets in historic downtown Elgin . In addition to local vendors hawking our famous hot sausage, drinks and homemade treats, we'll have live local music and fun for the kids - and of course, the chance hear and meet face-to-face with Democratic candidates on the Bastrop County ballot this November.
In response to the influx of visitors fleeing natural disasters of late, we're also asking folks to bring non-perishable food items to donate to the Elgin and Bastrop Food Pantries who have done heroic work assisting evacuees and their hosts, and need supplies replenished.
Headliners are Larry Joe Doherty (CD-10) & Donnie Dippel (HD-17). Plus everyone's favorite regional down-ballot judicial candidate, the venerable Woodie Jones (for 3rd Ct. Appeals), and the extremely bright, hard-working Chris Duggan (for 423rd Dist. Judge). Sheriff candidate Wayne Smith along with Dock Jackson (for Pct 1 Commissioner) round out the confirmed list of local office-seekers.
Loyal local yellowdawgs Ernie Bogart (longtime Elgin attorney) and Lee Dildy (Pct 4 Comm.) will serve as Honorary Hosts for this event.
Folks are encouraged to bring coolers, chairs and TVs, and set up camp next to the park for Texas-Arkansas game-watching after the rally activities finish just about kick-off time.
(More good news for Democrats in Texas - promoted by Matt Glazer)
In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas' 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. As a disclaimer, and an illustration of the funding issue, I did $90 in robocalls for the challenger, Ted Ankrum, in the closing days.
For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty's 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.
TX-10 is described as a 'barbell district' due to having a large chunk of the district in Travis County (Austin), a large chunk in Harris County (Houston) and a thin strip of highway frontage in between. In 2006, Harris went 71-26 for McCaul and Travis went 56-38 for Ankrum. In this poll, McCaul takes Harris 63-33 and Doherty takes Travis by the same 63-33. Travis is the slightly larger end of the TX-10 barbell, but the 'bar' in between went 70-30 for McCaul, resulting in a McCaul lead.
Of note, I also polled Obama-McCain and Cornyn-Noriega in this district and found those races to be more favorable to the other Republicans than they are to McCaul. Cornyn leads Noriega 54-44 and McCain leads Obama 55-41. Statewide, my past results have been more in line with Baselice than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen on these races, but I do not have current statewide numbers to report.
Historically, turnout in this district doesn't include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton's popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.
There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.
528 likely voters polled 6/2/2008, margin of error 4.3%
You know, I'm a HUGE fan of push polls, especially when Democrats employ them against Republicans. Though I'm not much of a fan when used in a primary, I also realize they are sometimes a necessity. Only problem is, you better not get caught because the damn things backfire painfully. Let's hope they do for Larry Joe Doherty.
Many of us have been subjected in recent days to a telephone push poll paid for by Doherty in which he spreads personal smears about his primary opponent, Austin's own Dan Grant. This sleazy tactic is straight out of Karl Rove's playbook for negative campaigns. It's also sloppy as hell and everyone who knows Dan realizes it's about as far from the truth as one can get. In fact, much of it is the same crap that a certain former member of the SDEC has been spreading all over Austin. We've all heard it and we all know it's not true.
As far as I'm concerned, the push poll disqualifies Larry Joe for serious consideration as our representative in Congress, mostly because a real push poll would have been about real issues. Not, for example, a bunch of patently false information. That ain't the kind of strategy that's going to be beat the Congressman from Clear Channel.
This transgression is just the latest from the Houston lawyer and former TV judge. Earlier this month, Doherty's dalliance with rightwing Congressman Lamar Smith was uncovered in a bizarre fundraiser for Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Larry Joe's own finance chairman, Jim 'Mattress Mac" McIngvale, co-sponsored the fundraiser.
But it doesn't end even there. Last fall, Austin Political Report uncovered a clip from the late Anna Nicole Smith's reality show in which Larry Joe, the host of his own (cancelled) show on Fox, invites the troubled socialite to be a judge. Enough said about his judgment.
Serious times call for serious candidates. Larry Joe Doherty isn't serious.
