It's sad but true that Rick Perry has lingered in the Governor's seat for more than any other human being in the history of Texas, and we have very little to show for it.
Perry has never been about what is best for Texas, and he's always been about what is best for Perry's cronies.
On the Republican side of the ticket, the most important returns tonight won't be for Rick Perry, and they won't be for Kay Bailey Hutchison. Debra Medina's support tonight -- and what her supporters do tomorrow -- could define the next eight months in a way nothing else we see in tonight's numbers can.
The old-guard Republicans accuse Medina and her supporters of being closeted Libertarians, while the Medina fans say the others aren't real Republicans because they don't adhere strictly to the GOP platform on issues such as abortion.
What both sides can agree on is that the Wharton County Republican Party wasn't the same after Medina took over.
Shaking things up in her party seems to be a pattern for Medina, who has sued the state Republican Party, clashed with Murrile over county spending and is now running for governor in a GOP primary that already includes two heavyweights, Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Fort Worth Tea Party activist Deborah TeSelle says she is unsure where she will ultimately place her loyalty if Medina, who was hurt by a gaffe in a radio interview with conservative commentator Glenn Beck, doesn't survive Tuesday.
"There are reasons why we're not supporting Gov. Perry," said TeSelle, who founded the Fort Worth 912 Project, a grassroots conservative organization. "We're just going to look to see who's on the ballot in the fall and consider [which candidate is] most likely to stand up for our constitutional liberties."
She said she will take a closer look at White but added, "It's hard to imagine that any Democrat would qualify." Supporting the yet-to-be-chosen Libertarian nominee might be another possibility, she said.
Two things I want to emphasize: the Glenn Beck side of this story and the 912 project, and why choosing a Libertarian candidate may not be TeSelle's only route:
For Debra Medina supporters, they saw their moment of truth. The 912 Project that TeSelle started was a Glenn-Beck inspired idea. Those principles -- crafted and created by corporate Republicans long ago -- were part of the anti-government movement generated by national Republicans. Medina's supporters are simply the Republicans who recognize the fiscal irresponsibility of Rick Perry, and don't believe Republicans are automatically great. Beck calling out Perry was a great moment.
GLENN: I think I can write her off the list. Let me take another look at Kay Bailey Hutchison if I have to. Rick, I think you and I could French kiss right now.
PAT: Let me tell you something. He's a damn handsome man.
The signers must be registered voters who have not participated in the general primary election or the runoff primary election of a party that has nominated, at either election, a candidate for the office you seek.
File the application, along with petition, by May 13, 2010.
Imagine a runoff did occur -- all signatures would have to be collected in the month between April 13 and May 13, 2010. Debra Medina cannot run as an independent, and neither can anyone at this point. Unless a lawsuit is filed -- which is completely possible. And considering the natural little-d democracy championed by Medina and her supporters, I'd imagine they would have a very authentic challenge to the law if they went down that path.
Then again, support for a Libertarian candidate from the Medina wing of the Republican primary would be huge. That's why what can matter most is how many votes Medina can get today, and how many continue to follow her tomorrow.
Medina has always faced uphill battles, but she's a true believer and someone very committed to her cause. Republicans like Perry will dismiss her as "frivolous" after the election ends, and the press corps will feel comfortable doing the same as they already did after the Glenn Beck setup.
But don't count Debra Medina out yet, I don't know if she has any quit in her...
Courtesy of the Rick Perry vs The World blog which you really should go read and make a regular habit of doing so.
KBH
1.1M raised
8M spent
2.3M Cash on Hand
RIck Perry
850K raised
8.8M spent
2.5M CoH
Debra Medina
450K raised
228k spent
291K CoH
Bill White
2.2M raised
2.7M spent
5.4M CoH
Farouk Shami
1.1M raised
5M spent
1M CoH
The fact that Perry and Hutchison have blown through over $8 Million each of their warchests and all that's resulted in is Bill White improving in the head to head polls against both of them is wonderful on so many levels.
Bill White outraised every candidate in both parties. Bill White has more money on hand than every candidate in both parties.
If you didn't think it was a real race before folks, it is now. I can't wait until March 3rd.
"The same person that writes the check for Sarah Palin writes the check for Glenn Beck, and people should be aware of that, and he's in Mr. Perry's pocket."
Debra Medina took a shot across the bow from Rick Perry and Glenn Beck a couple weeks ago (See: "Gut Reaction: Team Rick Perry Used Glenn Beck to Attack Debra Medina.") As I later reported, Rick Perry has received $286,400 from Clear Channel CEO and Chairman Lowry Mays -- who owns the radio stations of Beck, Limbaugh, and other right-wing radio hosts, most of whom immediately followed the Rick Perry talking points and smashed Medina constantly after her remarks (See: "Did Rick Perry's Clear Channel Connections Sink Debra Medina?")
So perhaps the most important question is this one here:
Do you think Debra Medina believes the Bush administration played a role in the attacks of 9/11? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
No ................................................................... 50%
Not Sure.......................................................... 29%
Perry's message spin team, quite frankly, failed. They urged and urged everyone to believe Medina was a truther, and they only managed to convince 21% of respondents in their set-up and attack. Pretty weak, when you think about it. Though not entirely unexpected.
Watch the first minute of the video below -- or skip to the 0:50 mark, and see this woman say, "The same person that writes the check for Sarah Palin writes the check for Glenn Beck, and people should be aware of that, and he's in Mr. Perry's pocket."
We'll see what the other polls say, but meanwhile...Debra Medina isn't going anywhere without a fight.
Last week, I argued that Debra Medina was set-up by Glenn Beck and Rick Perry ("Gut Reaction: Team Rick Perry Used Glenn Beck to Attack Debra Medina"). As you'll recall, Medina was skyrocketing in the polls -- it was certain she would force a runoff, and becoming increasingly possible that she would be in that runoff herself. For Medina, a quick appearance on Glenn Beck's radio show probably seemed like a terrific idea -- Beck's constant promotion of extreme right-wing views appealed to the type of people who were supporting Debra Medina.
But Medina was not talking to Glenn Beck the activist -- because there is no such thing. Especially not when Beck's boss is such a major supporter of Rick Perry. According to the Texas Ethics Commission, Clear Channel CEO and Chairman Lowry Mays has donated almost $300,000 to Rick Perry.
Clear Channel CEO Donations to Perry
Year
Donation
2001-2002
$51,400
2003-2004
$55,000
2005-2006
$80,000
2007-2008
$50,000
2009
$50,000
Total
$286,400
Source: Texas Ethics Commission
Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and countless other right-wing radio station personalities are owned by Clear Channel. Beck is paid $10 million by a Clear Channel subsidiary for his radio show (Source: Forbes). Is it any surprise, then, that he ambushed Medina the way he did -- and subsequently told all of his radio listeners to support Perry? After he finished his interview with Medina, Beck went on to pronounce his love for Rick Perry (Source: Radio Interview Transcript):
GLENN: I think I can write her off the list. Let me take another look at Kay Bailey Hutchison if I have to. Rick, I think you and I could French kiss right now.
PAT: Let me tell you something. He's a damn handsome man.
GLENN: He's a damn handsome man.
PAT: Looks good in a pair of jeans.
GLENN: Wow.
PAT: He's a handsome man.
GLENN: Wow. The fastest way back to 4%.
The set-up by Beck was quickly echoed throughout the mainstream media. The Dallas Morning News went on to immediately call it a "game-ending-gaffe." Few in the media, however, noted Perry's financial ties to Clear Channel and Glenn Beck -- or took any moments to repeat the absolutely bizarre conspiracy theories Beck puts out on his own. After all, this is Glenn Beck:
Debra Medina's gaffe -- set-up by a suspicious line of questioning from an employee of one of Rick Perry's top contributors -- could end up being the turning point from the election going to a runoff to Perry winning the primary outright
The latest poll comes from a coalition of five Texas newspapers, including the Statesman and Star-Telegram, and also includes a new head-to-head between Perry and White, the probable nominees for each party.
First, the top lines:
Republican Primary Poll Feb. 2-10, MOE 4.5%
Perry
45%
Hutchison
29%
Medina
17%
Undecided
8%
Rick Perry vs. Bill White Feb. 2-10, MOE 2.5%
Perry
43%
White
37%
Not Vote
5%
Undecided
13%
Again, confirms previous polling: Perry is ahead but may not avoid a run-off, and a Perry-White match-up looks competitive for Democrats this far out. (As a type this, Bill White has just come on my TV touting our flagging education statistics and need to move Texas forward.)
The sponsoring papers have a few interesting observations and insights on the poll. From the Star-Telegram:
Perry leads Hutchison 40 percent to 20 percent in the three-county Fort Worth region, with Medina running second with 26 percent in the heavily Republican area.
(snip)
"Hutchison does not seem to have a real base in the primary against two more conservative candidates," the pollsters said in a summary of their findings.
Again, though the poll was conducted prior to Medina's Glenn Beck performance in which the radio hate-merchant may have deliberately tried to sandbag her over her conspiracy theorist views, the results suggest again that true conservatives absolutely prefer Medina to Hutchison. Should Medina squeak into a run-off with Perry, it would be a fascinating race for the real heart and soul of the Texas Republican Party.
Also from the Star-Telegram:
Almost half of likely Republican primary voters -- 48 percent -- said they could not vote for a candidate who supports the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion, while 43 percent could.
Again, a majority of Republican voters in Texas don't believe that women have the right to control our own medical decisions. While crying "judicial activism!" towards Democratic judicial nominees, it is the Republican base who seems to want Roe v Wade overturned. Women, if you value your medical autonomy, stop voting for Republicans! They simply do not trust you enough with your own reproductive decisions.
The Statesman offered a few observations about the results:
Perry's 46 percent approval rating among all voters is almost exactly the same as it was in February 2006. He went on to win 39 percent of the vote that year in the general election against four opponents, but his opposition probably will not be as splintered if he makes it to November this year.
Make no mistake: Perry is vulnerable. The head-to-head numbers with White show a single-digit race this far out despite low awareness of White. 65% of respondents to the poll said they didn't know enough about White to form an opinion. Once voters take a gander at his record as Houston's mayor and commitment to core issues such as education, energy, and the economy, Perry may see that gap close further.
However, perhaps one of the most intriguing results: 53% of Texans think our state is on the right track. This, despite being ranked last or near-last in education and social services, while health insurance premiums have risen 92% under Rick Perry. Bill White--should he manage to dispatch Farouk "19%" Shami on March 2nd--has a challenge ahead of him. Define his record of results as Mayor of our largest Texas city, and emphasize how Rick Perry's 10 years have led Texas astray.
With early voting a mere four days away and less than a month to go until primary day, Texas gubernatorial polls are coming out fast and furious. Here's an overview of some recent polling released in the past week. Note that nearly all were in the field entirely or largely before Medina's "9/11 Truther" flap on Glenn Beck yesterday.
While there's certainly some wiggle room here, overall the polls show Perry with a decent lead over Hutchison and Medina; however, with the incumbent failing to clear 50% in any of them a run-off seems likely. The big question remains who finishes second. As we've discussed lately, it's Medina who has seen the big momentum swing in her direction. It is unclear, however, if she has any more room to grow, or--as Phillip suggested yesterday--Perry and cronies have decided to take her out.
Not to sound like too much of a "Poll"-yanna here, but I think White should be able to avoid the run-off. These polls were entirely conducted before the 2/8 debate in which Shami was resoundingly destroyed by White, when the voters got a real look at White's competency and skills. Furthermore, as White's TV ad continues in rotation and field campaigns crank up the output I think White should be able to avoid a run-off against Shami or any of the single-digit also-rans.
Update 3:51 PM: Added TCUL poll to Democratic numbers.
Key Point: Do you think Glenn Beck had a large group of random people e-mail him about how Medina's advisors are 9/11 truthers? Or do you think, just maybe, that Team Rick Perry teed him up on this one to attack Medina because they saw her poll numbers were shooting through the roof? And now Perry is supposed to be ready go with radio attack ads about this already...
Has Medina questioned the government's involvment in 9/11 in the past? Maybe. I don't know. I'm not supporting her, so I don't care too much. But wasn't this a really random question to just come out of nowhere?
Here's a big hypothetical that makes too much sense to just be a hypothetical...
Imagine you are Rick Perry. You're the Governor of Texas. The extremely popular U.S. Senator you're running against in the primary, Kay Bailey Hutchison, was supposed to defeat you handily this year. But because her campaign team is dumber than rocks, she's squandered her massive popularity in one of the worst run statewide campaigns in United States history -- and now you're sitting pretty and the clear favorite to win the Republican Party primary nomination.
Texas Governor Rick Perry has been in statewide office for twenty years. As a career politician, he knows every trick, and can create an attack out of nowhere if he has the right people on his side. And this morning -- with the help of Glenn Beck and Fox News -- he got his help (which shouldn't be too surprising, considering how much of a staple Rick Perry is on Fox News).
In fact, if you read the whole interview, it's pretty hard to not read it as a setup -- especially from a guy like Glenn Beck.
Beck asks her how she is doing, asks her who she is, asks her about her policies, and asks her to expand on her claims that we eliminate the property tax -- a claim that Talmadge Heflin, former Chairman of the Texas House Appropriations Committee and current director of the Center for Fiscal Policy at the Texas Public Policy Foundation has advocated for repeatedly. Glenn Beck can't believe that proposal -- making him already out-of-touch with the Debra Medina supporters -- and then immediately launches into an out-of-nowhere question about 9/11.
September 11? Really? He asked that...because it was the eight-year, five-month anniversary of the terrorist attack? Why did that come up at all? Oh that's right -- it was a "theme" in some of the mail he received about her.
And then there was Medina's initial response:
GLENN: I have when I said that I was going to have you on, you can't imagine the mail pro and con that I received. There was a theme that ran against you and that is you are a 9/11 Truther.
MEDINA: Well, there's lots of mud that people would like to throw at Debra Medina and make stick. The truth is I'm an everyday ordinary person. I am fighting for the things that our founders fought for, those very basic principles of a constitutional republic, and I'm going to champion people that hold their government accountable, hold me accountable but that's the first time I've heard that accusation. So that's an interesting one.
Great answer. But did Beck end the line of questioning, even though she answered it right the first time? Nope.
Beck pressed on, and here is where Debra Medina -- a newcomer to the smashmouth world of politics -- made a huge mistake and let the wheels come off the PR wagon: she did not make a clear unilateral statement that the government was not involved in the September 11 attacks (something she did, once she got her bearings again, later on her website).
Was it a huge and damaging mistake? Absolutely. Beck was ready to pounce:
GLENN: Do you have advisors, do you have advisor
MEDINA: I'm not going to take a position.
GLENN: That's fine.
MEDINA: These questions have been raised and they are not answered.
GLENN: Do you have advisors that advise you or people that are around you that are 9/11 Truthers?
MEDINA: Not to my knowledge.
GLENN: Would you, if you found out that there were, would you disavow them like the president should have but I mean, he escorted them out in the middle of the night. Van Jones was a 9/11 Truther. If you found out that people around you are advising you were 9/11 Truthers, would you disavow them or allow them to continue to advise you?
At this point, Beck is clearly trying to trap her into taking a position on what her advisors think. Medina stumbles to the end, Beck closes the interviews then laughs at her once she's off the phone, and the rest is immediately spun by Rick Perry supporters online (via Twitter, largely) while Debra Medina is trying to figure out why she was just slammed on national television. With a (likely) head start, the Perry people pounced on the news and told everyone that "Debra Medina is a 9/11 truther" -- and it sticks because Team Rick Perry has a professionally paid spin machine, whereas Medina counts on grassroots support. So instead of Debra Medina getting to tell the press, "Rick Perry used Glenn Beck to set me up because he knew I was becoming a threat to his Governor's race" the story favors Perry. The rest is history in this wild and crazy Texas Governor's race.
Now the question is: what happens to Medina's supporters? Could she still force a runoff?
The truth is, we don't know the answer to that -- and we won't until we get a better sense of whether or not her supporters see the action of today as a political attack from Rick Perry, or as a disappointing and unforgivable performance from a first-time candidate who made a very big mistake on a very big stage.
Polling released by PPP today confirms what many have felt for months in the Republican gubernatorial primary: Medina's got the Big Mo'.
It's been evident on the ground since the summer. At countless "Tea Party" events and counter-protests to health reform, conservative activists have made themselves visible with signs such as the one at right. At first, Medina might have been easily dismissed as a bigger secessionist than Rick Perry. However, her willingness to court these enthusiastic voters and acknowledge their growing frustration with the Republican status quo is now paying dividends in terms of both polling and fundraising.
Truth be told, the Medina supporters are on to something, and their sign speaks more truth than lunacy. Hutchison voted to confirm Justices Alito and Roberts, whose votes on the Citizen United case recently did indeed further open the floodgates to corporate money influencing our public policy. Perry, of course, has a long history of close ties to corporate lobbyists, as Hutchison's latest attack ads make clear. He has also been endorsed by just about every special interest group seeking protectionist policies in the state house.
Medina, on the other hand, may be only the Republican Party Chair of Wharton County, but at least she knows her principles and she sticks to them. She even took the Republican Party of Texas to court because she found the state convention insufficiently open to activists such as herself and her supporters. And while Democrats are quick to dismiss her as "just another crazy," she's speaking to a growing electoral base who are frustrated with what they see in DC and in Austin.
Now, as a wider swathe of Republican primary voters have started paying attention, polling reflects the growing momentum behind Medina's candidacy. Similarly, flagging numbers for the Senior Senator illustrate the continued troubles of Hutchison to pick up any energy.
Perry's numbers have largely held steady over the course of the campaign. However, it's Medina who has gone from zero to Tea Party Hero, drawing support steadily away from Hutchison and undecideds a like. Many Hutchison voters are simply anti-Perry, and Medina now provides an equally compelling choice for folks dissatisfied with the status quo. And for the Republican activist base who are unhappy with both Austin and Washington, Medina is a clear alternative, a fresh voice for their far-right ideals.
And every added ounce of media attention only helps Medina. After having to fight her way in to the first Republican debate, Medina showed down Hutchison and gained serious ground in the 1/17 post-debate poll. She also raised $200,000 in the week after her first debate appearance, a huge boost to her campaign.
Meanwhile, Perry has finally started taking a few hits, with Hutchison's solid negative ads on the incumbent. Both "New One" and "Perry Attack Lab" dish it right back out at Perry, pointing out his own hypocrisy on the bail-out and stimulus funds, while also questioning his social conservative bona-fides. However, it may be too late for her to regain any traction in this race, especially with the surging Medina.
To keep the mojo rising, Medina's supporters are even planning a Money Bomb on February 15, the day before Early Voting, to help push their candidate into the run-off. The date commemorates the adoption of the Texas State Constitution in 1876. They're bringing the angry rhetoric to bear, castigating Perry and Hutchison for a failure to adhere to real conservative principles. From their website:
Unfortunately today, we no longer have elected leaders who believe in such principles - at least not in the Governor's seat! Instead, our leaders believe it perfectly normal to steal land, restrict gun rights, ignore the existence of a southern border, force untested medical treatments on our daughters, and allow the Federal Government to walk all over our contract with them known as the U.S. Constitution.
Practically sounds like they're talking about what they think of Democrats. Just goes to show how out-of-touch many establishment Republican candidates are with the activist base that is fueling their resurgence.
With early voting one week away the PPP poll would suggest only 9% remain undecided, and with the close margins, it looks as though the race may well go to a run-off. The real question now is if Medina's organized, vigorous supporters can overcome Hutchison's institutional support and make it into the final round with Rick Perry.
It's ironic. At the outset of this campaign, a lot of the talking heads and punditocracy wanted to see Perry vs. Hutchison as a battle over the future of the Republican Party between a Washington "moderate" and a self-styled pseudo-secessionist. Instead, Hutchison never really put up much of a fight, and Medina was there to capitalize from the far-right.
Now, Texas voters may be treated to a Perry-Medina run-off. And that, dear readers, could indeed be the epic show-down amongst the Republican Party faithful that we've been waiting for.
Key Point: Debra Medina is a serious candidate, but the Repbulican establishment and traditional media ignored her for months. Now, she is poised to capture energy during a second televised debate, has an upcoming Moneybomb that could inject cash into her campaign, and -- even if she loses -- has told supporters she likely will support a third-party candidate, and not the Republican nominee, should she lose the Republican primary.
The conventional wisdom that Rick Perry has led some Tea Party movement in Texas is absolutely wrong. Rick Perry is not a real "Tea Party" candidate:
Perry is smug and inauthentic about his Tea Party credentials. All he really did was jump on the bandwagon on April 15, 2009, when he did his pseudo-secession hint, and has been coasting on fake Fox News populism ever since.
Toni Backdahl, Minnesota coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots, said the group behind the convention — Tea Party Nation — is not affiliated with the national movement and there are questions about the group's intent.
"We put pressure on Bachmann, and we're glad that she didn't go," Backdahl said. "I'm glad that she did the right thing."
Honestly -- considering that there is physical evidence that Perry supported the bank bailout before it was cool not to support it, do you really think Perry is a true "Tea Party" person, or that he saw which way the weather vane was pointed and jumped out in front?
Perry jumped on a bandwagon that Ron Paul started long ago in Texas, and he got away with it because Fox News and pundits like Chris Matthews and Paul Burka told the country that the Tea Party movement was the result of GOP-led opposition to President Obama. Here in Texas, nothing could be further from the truth, and Debra Medina is perfectly positioned to continue unveiling Rick Perry's fake Tea Party persona for the next month -- and potentially long after.
From Rick Perry's personal blogthe Rick vs. Kay blog, we learn that Medina will not necessarily support Perry or Hutchison if she loses:
A fairly well known very very conservative Republican activist in the Austin area named Michelle Samuelson has a blog calling out Debra Medina for saying that she would not support the winner of the Republican primary in the general election (link). Excerpt follows...
This is the problem with most "wing" a certain wing of the Republican Party. Instead of rallying behind the "80%" candidates, they throw stones and end up helping the Democratic Party. Liberals. Who agree with them maybe 20% of the time.
Republicans are calling Medina a traitor to the Repbulican Party, admonishing her for not playing on the team. Well guess what folks -- she never was on Team GOP. The Republican Party of Texas establishment -- following the lead of Fox News and the Republican National Commitee -- has tried to co-opt a grassroots movement that existed long before Perry decided to raise taxes on small businesses. It is a movement started by Ron Paul and ignored by Rick Perry because he could never figure out how to co-opt it. He thought he did in 2009 -- and he sure painted himself that way. But at the end of the day, Rick Perry is still the guy who jokes about Texas being in a recession.
Debra Medina is an authentic grassroots conservative, and she's been a serious candidate for a lot longer than most news outlets have paid attention. Today, the Wall Street Journal and Dallas Morning News have stories entirely devoted to her impact on the race. Interesting though their pieces are, they don't get into why Medina went from someone with only $9,000 COH after June 2009 to be the star of the second (and probably final) GOP debate.
Medina is a dedicated community activist that has rallied her support by appearing at Tea Parties, local community events, and pretty much anywhere you could imagine. Her website, MedinaforTexas.com was launched only a few days before the June 30 filing deadline, yet it looks professional. She will only report a tiny amount of cash-on-hand ($9,000, with $35,000 raised), which means that Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison, and most Austin Republican insiders will completely dismiss and ignore her campaign.
To do so would be wrong.
And why was she a serious candidate? Here's what I wrote back in July:
Debra Medina has huge, huge support of Ron Paul supporters, having actively worked for Paul in the past
Libertarian newspapers are promoting Medina
Medina is proposing a statewide ballot initiative to impose term limits
Key GOP operatives (including Sarah Palin) may be trying to squash the growing Libertarian Party
Well, here we are over six months later. Looking at those four points again, we know that:
Medina's support from Paul supporters has sustained her low-budget campaign and put her in position to compete;
The Libertarians have promoted her from the beginning, because that's who she is and no one should be surprised she'd support a Libertarian (or an Independent) over Rick or Kay in the general;
Her term limits platform is an anti-incumbent, limited government policy position -- the same kind of policies she championed in the first debate, that she has championed for months, and even the conventional wisdom agrees is the primary catalyst for her success;
See the discussion above about Perry's posturing on the Tea Party.
Finally, tonight's debate isn't the last major time Debra Medina will make headlines. Ever since the last debate, she has promoted -- at local events, on the radio, and through grassroots e-mail communications -- a Medina Momey Bomb on February 2. Remember -- Debra Medina is a Ron Paul Republican. Ron Paul raised $6 million and $4.2 million in single-day money bombs during his run for President -- both of which still stand as records for GOP single-day fundraising.
Will Medina duplicate Paul's success? Probably not at such a large scale, no. Ron Paul has supporters across the country, whereas Medina's supporters are limited mostly to Texas. However -- she raised $100,000 in unsolicited contributions after the last TV debate. If she can raise $500,000 or more from next Tuesday's money bomb, Medina will have enough to continue making a focused GOTV effort for her campaign -- which will keep her in the race. Who knows what happens if she makes enough from her money bomb to go on television.
Debra Medina is a real candidate. Too often, we determine that "viability" is the only factor that determines a real candidacy. Medina was fighting for her political views before she got in the race, and she will continue fighting for them when she loses the primary and (most likely) forces a runoff.
Anyone who thinks otherwise just hasn't been paying attention.
It's been evident on the ground since the summer. At countless "Tea Party" events and counter-protests to health reform, conservative activists have made themselves visible with signs such as the one at right. At first, Medina might have been easily dismissed as a bigger secessionist than Rick Perry. However, her willingness to court these enthusiastic voters and acknowledge their growing frustration with the Republican status quo is now paying dividends in terms of both polling and fundraising.
Now, as a wider swathe of Republican primary voters have started paying attention, polling reflects the growing momentum behind Medina's candidacy. Similarly, flagging numbers for the Senior Senator illustrate the continued troubles of Hutchison to pick up any energy.
