THE GOVERNOR’S RACE: 70 DAYS OUT
Reading the Cross Tabs
By Dean Rindy
Rindy Miller Media
Recent polling in East Texas opens a window to the inner workings of the Texas Governor’s race.
Our conclusion: It’s Perry’s race to win; Strayhorn is in deep, deep trouble; Kinky mainly hurts Chris Bell; though Bell still has an outside chance of getting within striking range of Perry.
A poll done just last week in HD-11---Rusk, Panola, Cherokee and Panola Counties—is typical of a lot of local areas we are working in. HD 11 is conservative, with a Democratic performance level only in the mid 30’s. Bush carried it by 70%, but the district will elect Democrats, like its incumbent State Representative, Chuck Hopson.
The Governor’s horserace in HD-11 breaks down this way:
Perry 37%
Bell 17%
Strayhorn 16%
Kinky 10%
Undec. 20%
(HD-11 obviously has different demographics than Texas as a whole, but these numbers are strikingly close to the stateside results reported a few weeks ago in the Rasmussen Poll, which had Perry at 35%, with Bell, Kinky and Strayhorn all tied at 18%.)
Perry has a high probability, in my opinion, of reelection with between 38% and 45% of the statewide vote. He is holding his core base. Strayhorn should be feeling desperate; she needs to win ALL of the undecided vote just to get close enough to have a chance.
Bell has more room to grow. His name ID is low; and most voters don’t yet know who the hell he is. He has shown signs lately of awakening from his trance, but he needs to throw more red meat to the faithful. Bell can’t win with crossover votes. His main hope is to assemble most of the Democratic base to put himself in position to win with a plurality of 36% to 38%.
Kinky surprises me by getting 10% in this rural district, but he has more limited growth potential. His race for Governor is a great career move, but he’s not Jesse Ventura and Texas isn’t Minnesota. He can kill Strayhorn or Bell’s chances, but not Perry’s.
