DSCC on the Texas Senate Race

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 00:16 AM CDT

I missed this earlier this week. The DSCC sent this out in their email announcing what happened in the Senate races across the country. Isn't it nice to see Texas highlighted in such a manner? Speaking of which, John Cornyn is hit twice in stories on their front page as of right now- even better. 

 Texas: Under the Radar

The energy and enthusiasm we saw in Texas this week was amazing. Nearly as many Democrats voted in this week's primary as voted for John Kerry in the 2004 general election.

Not only did they cast votes for president, but they also elected National Guard veteran and State Representative Rick Noriega to be our Democratic Senate candidate.  Noriega will be aiming to topple Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn in November.

Noriega has combined an engaging personal story - he was on the front lines in Afghanistan for 14 months - with a strong record of progressive leadership in the state House to build an energetic grassroots following.

Remember, John Cornyn is one of George Bush's most reliable votes in the Senate.  He led the way as Republicans tried to pack our federal courts with right-wing judges.  And Cornyn was ranked as the third-most conservative Senator by National Journal in 2006.  

Defeating Cornyn won't be easy, but you can be certain that the DSCC and the Texas grassroots will do everything possible to elect Rick Noriega in November.

John Cornyn Was Not Invited to this BBQ

by: Matt Glazer

Fri May 25, 2007 at 10:26 AM CDT

As the poll points out:

“Apparently John McCain isn’t the only one who has had enough of John Cornyn,” DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said.  “This poll shows Texans look at John Cornyn like the neighbor who shows up uninvited at a backyard BBQ.  No one invited him, they don’t know why he’s there, and they can’t wait for him to leave.”

Thanks to the DSCC for pointing it out, and the Senate Guru for getting it first.

DSCC's Eyes are Indeed Upon Texas

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Wed May 09, 2007 at 09:18 AM CDT

From Political Insider...

Senate Democrats are "moving to target usually impenetrable Republican seats, hoping to keep Republicans on the defensive and boost the party's prospects for ousting vulnerable GOP incumbents next year," reports Roll Call.

The DSCC is "prepared to sink money and manpower into solid Republican states across the South and elsewhere. But the DSCC's plan depends on three factors not guaranteed to materialize: continued political peril for Republicans deep into 2008, the retirement of GOP incumbents in solid Republican states and the recruitment of stellar Democratic candidates in places where they often are in short supply."

In addition to targeting Oregon, Minnesota and New Hampshire, the DSCC is "focused on threatening two additional tiers of Republican seats, both of which are made up of seats that are in GOP strongholds where Republicans tend to have the advantage -- especially in presidential cycles. The first includes Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas; the second includes Idaho, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico and Virginia."

Now all we are missing in Texas are some candidates. But I expect that picture to change by June. It's going to be a very exciting cycle in Texas, led by the Texas Senate race and complemented by TX-10 and maybe the Texas Supreme Court.

Cornyn Numbers Worsen, Candidate Buzz Grows

by: Matt Glazer

Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 00:40 PM CDT

A new poll from Survey USA shows that Texas Senator John Cornyn's approval rating is now only 3 points higher than his disapproval rating, with 43% of Texans approving of the way he is handling his job and 40% disapproving. Cornyn?s approval rating has dropped 4 points in the past month, and his disapproval rating has climbed by one point.

The public poll follows on the heels of a DSCC poll which showed that despite having held statewide office for 15 of the past 17 years, Cornyn has a statewide name ID roughly competitive with the third string quarterback for the Longhorns.

Political Insider highlights a Roll Call story that says, "The top three individuals being eyed by the party to challenge the Republican are John Sharp, the former state comptroller; Rep. Nick Lampson, who holds the Republican-leaning 22nd district in suburban Houston; and wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D) of San Antonio."

The general beltway consensus is now, the right candidate could upset Cornyn.  The general blogger consensus is, Cornyn is very vulnerable. 

Cornyn in an interview was confident that he is both politically and operationally well-positioned for his first re-election bid as Senator, though he vowed not to take anything for granted. But Democrats, on the heels of a survey commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, are floating the names of six potential challengers they're describing as viable, while contending Cornyn is unexpectedly vulnerable.

In 2006, "people weren't lining up to run against [Sen.] Kay Bailey Hutchison [R-Texas]. You didn't hear any talk like this last cycle," said one Democratic operative based in Texas. "I think it's a demonstration of John Cornyn's vulnerability that people are looking at this race."

How does Cornyn feel about his poor polling?

"Texas is still a pretty conservative state," Cornyn said Wednesday. "I've lived in Texas virtually all of my life, and I feel I understand the values of the people in my state and feel like I reflect those values as best I can in the Senate."

My favorite part is the, "virtually".  And while he might feel like he understands Texans.  Texans will soon know how connected he is to corrupt lobbyist like Jack Abramoff. Which isn't a surprise since 2 years later he has been Alberto Gonzales' most vocal supporter on the Senate Judiciary Committee. The more things change, the more they stay the same... for Cornyn.

Any Democrat who runs will have a steep hill to climb.

Texas is an expensive state, and while Democrats have yet to find a candidate, Cornyn raised $930,000 in the first quarter of this year to close the period with $3.8 million on hand. Cornyn said he expects to improve upon his first-quarter fundraising performance as the election draws nearer.

Good thing we are raising money now. Hint, hint.

DSCC Proves Cornyn is Vulnerable

by: Matt Glazer

Mon Apr 23, 2007 at 01:34 PM CDT

Below is a memo from Hamilton Beattie & Staff on a recent poll conducted for the DSCC which shows Texas Senator John Cornyn does not break 50% in a generic matchup against a Democratic opponent and that 39% of the Texas electorate does not know enough about him to rate him at all.  At the outset of his first re-election campaign, Cornyn has not solidified his position with the Texas electorate and faces a difficult political environment that makes him vulnerable to a challenge.

Here are some fun numbers from the DSCC:

• George W Bush has a negative job rating in Texas (47% positive - 51% negative) and the voters are nearly evenly split on whether their family would be better off with a Democrat or Republican majority in the US Senate (41% Democrats - 43% Republicans).
• A strong plurality of voters in Texas believe the country is headed in the wrong direction (34% right direction - 49% wrong direction). President Bush's job rating on handling Iraq is even more negative (41% positive - 58% negative).
• Republican John Cornyn has lower than expected name recognition for an incumbent US Senator, with 39% of the electorate unable to rate Cornyn either favorably or unfavorably. Overall he is 41% favorable - 19% unfavorable.
• Senator Cornyn's generic reelect versus a Democrat is under 50% (47% Republican John Cornyn - 38% Democratic candidate; 15% undecided).

John Cornyn proves month after month that he is highly vulnerable.  His low name ID, low favorability, an inability to win outright on a generic ballot, and an unpopular president all hurt the Junior Senators chances in 2008.

The state is open to being introduced to the right kind of Texas Democrat.

Prove the point today!

Mikal Watts Raises Texas Record for DSCC: $1.1 Million

by: Glen Maxey

Sun Apr 22, 2007 at 02:04 AM CDT

Shocking the DSCC leadership, the gathering at Watts' San Antonio home doubled the record for a DSCC fundraiser in Texas- raising a whopping $1.1 million. 

The event, headlined by Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY), Sen. Ken Salazar (CO) and Robert Menendez (NJ) was packed with Democrats from all corners of Texas, including Congressmen Charlie Gonzalez, Ciro Rodriguez, Solomon Ortiz, Nick Lampson and a healthy contingent of Texas state legislators.

It even resulted in a reunion of sorts between Boyd Richie, Charlie Urbina-Jones, and myself- all candidates for Texas Democratic Party Chair in 2006.

As Schumer ran down the prospects for picking up seats in the US Senate in 2008, you could feel the adrenalin rush of Democrats eager to a great year in 2008.  Republicans are defending 21 incumbent seats and the Democrats only 12.  Schumer told the crowd that all twelve Democratic Senators are now public in their commitments to run for re-election, including South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson who is in the final stages of recovery of his life-threatening health situation of last November.  The only incumbent who has what he considered a tough race is Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA), although he said he thought she, too, will do all right.

Sen. Salazar spoke about the US Senate seat in Colorado where Republican Wayne Allard has announced his retirement.  In that open seat, US Rep. Mark Udall is unopposed in the Democratic primary and is the assumed nominee.  Salazar stated that polls are showing a 25% lead by Udall in an array of possible Republican matchups.

The other states that Schumer put into the top tier were blue states with Republican Senators:  Oregon, Maine, New Hampshire, Colorado and Minnesota. 

He cited a recent series of polls showing matchups of potential Democratic candidates vs. the Republican incumbent.  He specifically pointed out polls in Kentucky, a traditionally very red state, where Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell resides. In a hypothetical heads up race between McConnell and the Democratic candidate Congressman Ben Chandler, the result was a stunning 45% to 44%.  In a second question tying the Republican to support for George Bush and the war in Iraq, the race turned into a  Democratic 55% to McConnell 42% shocker.  Schumer flatly stated that the same kinds of results are seen even in states like North Carolina and Mississippi.

However, the most exciting Schumer announcement was in his closing about the DSCC's prospects in races across the country where he used this great line:

The Eyes of Texas are Upon Us
But The Eyes of the DSCC are Upon Texas

Pointing out that our own John Cornyn enjoys the lowest approval rating of all 21 Republican Senators up for re-election, Schumer was quite candid that at this point they consider Texas to be in play as a possible pick up state.  (Damn, it's been a long time since any of us could make that statement!)

He jokingly made references about Cornyn's pitiful performance in last weeks Judiciary Committee hearings with AG Alberto Gonzalez, pointing out Bush's biggest lap dog defender in the Senate even trying to clumsily re-position himself, as if suddenly figuring out there's something amiss with this Administration.

It's going to take at least $15 million to run a full fledged race against Cornyn by our eventual nominee. It's going to take thousands of grassroots donors in a people-powered activist campaign to make that happen. If we start building now and add 100 new donors a month to the Texas ActBlue Senate Nominee fund we'll be well on our way to retiring John Cornyn in 2008.

The eyes of the DSCC the nation are upon us, Texas. The time to start is now. Donate today to defeat Cornyn in 2008. He's going down.