Matt and I realized that we have some of the best IM conversations. Maybe we should start printing our stunningly brilliant political insight. Edited slightly for taste... very slightly.
Matt Glazer: I'm not going to lie, the pictures of Chris Riley's event are pretty stunning
Karl-Thomas: yeah, and in other conversations I've had, there is a sense of "where is Cofer, where is Perla" going on
Karl-Thomas: i feel it to
Karl-Thomas: Cofer's done nothing publicly
Matt Glazer: I know
Karl-Thomas: and Riley is eating up energy
Matt Glazer: I completely agree
Karl-Thomas: I think I'm going to post on that publicly
Karl-Thomas: maybe it will goad them into action.
Matt Glazer: but even then, Chris is campaigning like a machine
Matt Glazer: Cofer's asset is his perceived youth and freshness
Matt Glazer: yet Chris is campaigning with that meme
Karl-Thomas: yeah, isn't that funny?
Karl-Thomas: Chris is like, how old?
Matt Glazer: like 50
Karl-Thomas: that's hilarious
Matt Glazer: yet he seems like the most youthful candidate
Karl-Thomas: you know, that is actually an incredibly insightful statement
Matt Glazer: sometimes I think we should just post our IM conversations
Lee Leffingwell is set to announce a couple of high profile endorsements Tuesday. Until then, his newly launched Facebook Candidate Page has broken through 100 supporters in the first 24 hours.
Leffingwell's campaign team has also launched a twitter account @TheLeeTeam. What I love about it is that it's not a campaign account, it's updates about the actual campaign teams operations. That's totally geek! I love it. Granted, it's a limited appeal sort of thing but who knows- technology in campaigns continues to amaze me.
Chris Riley writes a thank you post here on Burnt Orange Report after his successful campaign launch. Cavazos has hers next week and I don't know when Cofer's is. Riley has really been hustling and while I'll be fair in saying that being first out of the gate doesn't always mean you are in the lead, I've heard a number of people who are supporters of the other 2 candidates wonder when they are going to show up to the Place 1 race.
The University Democrats at UT are starting back up for the semester with their first meeting this Wednesday at 8:00pm in Garrison Hall (GAR) 0.102. Jimmy Talarico is now at the helm.
Perla Cavazos releases her first list of 200 supporters. Matt sent me the email announcement and I wondered why I hadn't received it. I thought that maybe my last post had put me in the penalty box for getting Cavazos email updates so I checked again to make sure. I found it...
Sigh. I have a feeling Cavazos email and my inbox are going through some identity issues.
So I've run through all the campaign finance reports for the reported candidates for office. Mike Levy, while much rumored, hasn't filed to run, and Oak Hill resident Sandy Baldrige is saying she wants to run against Bill Spelman, but no action to actually follow up those claims on the finance front. In any case, below are a couple of different measures of how you can compare the candidates. Incumbents running for re-election to their own offices are in bold.
Cash on Hand
The only thing order-wise that changes if you sort by total funds raised during the period is that incumbent Sheryl Cole moves from 4th to 2nd and incumbent Mike Martinez moves from 2nd to 4th.
Overall: I was mostly right in what I've said to friends that I doubted anyone would end up having more than $25,000. I was wrong about Carole Strayhorn but I didn't think she would end up deciding to run. And while Chris Riley didn't end up with more than $25,000 cash on hand, he did raise more than $25,000 so congrats to him.
Mayor: Overall, I'm a little surprised to see Brewster's fundraising more on par with that of the Place 1 candidates and lagging behind that of Carole. Of course, that could just be because his main fundraiser isn't until later this month, but still, it makes the argument against Leffingwell rather irrelevant (that his delay in getting in will put him far behind in the money race). The Draft Lee PAC certainly is not acting as a real shadow campaign in terms of fundraising, but remember, it cannot transfer funds to Lee's Mayoral account once he files so there is no use in building up tens of thousands of dollars on it that would have to be spent independently of the official campaign. Of course, I also think that Strayhorn and Levy could spent lots of money and get far fewer votes than McCracken and Leffingwell so it could just all be a wash. This report tells us very little in the Mayor's race.
Place 1: My ballpark guess in this race was that the fundraising order would be Riley, Cavazos, then Cofer with totals around $20k, $15k, and then $10k. Both Chris Riley and Rick Cofer exceeded those expectations by a reasonable amount and in the end, they indeed are separated by no more than $10,000. Cofer was the last candidate in this race to announce, and with only 2 weeks to fundraise with Christmas killing about a week of that, nearly tieing Cavazos is worthy of note. I should clarify this point as all 3 candidates filed in the 2nd week of December. What I was trying to get at was that Chris was actively exploring this race and making calls months before he filed (I got an early call when I was in the Strama office before the November election) and Perla was actively talking about it in November, whereas I know Cofer didn't make the decision to run until the first week of December, shortly before he filed because he texted me about it.
Does this report create a frontrunner? I don't know. Last year, in the open Place 4 race, the first report went Morrison, Galindo, Cravey with $21k, $14k, and $12k. Randi Shade led incumbent Jennifer Kim $69k to $44k. Of course all of those were running earlier and in this period, the fundraising period was truncated by a presidential election, late filing, and a bad economy (even though the max contribution limit has increased from $300 to $350).
But if convention wisdom must be set, than I figure it's Cofer and Cavazos competing more with each other to secure a spot in a runoff with Chris Riley.
Place 5: This is all about Bill Spelman. Which is pretty easy to say since there is no sign of his "declared" regional opponent as of yet from Oak Hill. A lot of the same caveats apply as in the Place 5 race (Bill filed with about 3 weeks to fundraise) and it's a hard sell to get people to give you money when (at the time) there was no opponent. So this could end up like the Leffingwell-Meeker race in 2008. Lots of bluster from the 2nd tier candidate, but probably not a whole lot of electoral action with a healthy win.
Other Places: Mike Martinez doesn't have a declared opponent. Sam Osemene is running against Sheryl (he ran for Place 4 against Morrison/Galindo/Cravey last year) but he hasn't filed any report as he appointed his treasurer in January; but if he runs like last time, he won't be a factor other than a repository of votes for people who don't want to vote for Sheryl.
Here are some other interesting breakdowns.
Disclosure: I am listed as having donated $300 of in-kind website development services to the Spelman campaign.
It's slim posting on the Austin City Council race until the campaign finance reports are filed, but related to that department (and interesting to all of about 18 people in Austin, all of whom are reading this blog) is which consultants are working for whom. Matt wrote up a good round-up of this last year in this post. Chris Riley has added a name to his team.
Chris Riley announced today that Susan Harry will join his city council campaign as chief fundraising consultant, bringing her tremendous experience and success to an already strong team. Riley described Harry as "a top-notch fundraiser who's up to the task of helping our campaign bring meaningful, positive change to this city during a challenging time."
Harry, a veteran of many successful city council and partisan elections, stated that she is excited to take part in sharing Riley's vision with the Austin community. "Chris Riley is a strong candidate with a tremendous history of leadership and service to our city," Harry stated. She cited his plans to address the growing economic crisis and his solid environmental record as reasons she joined the campaign team. "Chris has a vision for Austin that will allow all of us to live in a more sustainable, collaborative community."
Susan Harry is also doing fundraising for Bill Spelman (and as noted in the comments, work for Councilman Mike Martinez). I believe that her work for Sheryl Cole is similar in nature in terms of keeping the filings in order.
Related to place one, rumored candidate Kathie Tovo appears to have declined to enter the race, meaning the Chris Riley will join Rick Cofer and Perla Cavazos for the time being in the (still not quite a) race for Place 1 whenever Lee Leffingwell makes an announcement for Mayor.
While I haven't spoken with anyone from Cavazos camp, I have been told that fundraising was better than expected for the Cofer campaign. Of course, that's all relative as I'd be shocked if anyone in the contested races raises more than $25,000 other than maybe Brewster McCracken for Mayor. And speaking of Brewster, I had a rather pleasant lunch with him today at El Chile which was entirely political while being totally non-political somehow.
There is always a guessing game of who is working for who in the races. Here is what we know and what we hear about who is working for who in their campaigns. In fact, we are constantly getting praise and criticism for campaigns we don't work for. So let's clear the air and shed some light on the process.
Team McCracken:
Christian Archer: Bill White, Phil Hardberger, Mikal Watts, Dawnna Dukes '08 primary, Juan Garcia, Bexar County candidates, Julian Castro in 11/09, former Archer Nathan partner.
William Yarnell: Patrick Rose, Hays County candidates, Capitol Lobbyist
Mario Bravo: Juan Garcia campaign manager, Mikal Watts
Local attorney Martha Smiley is Brewster's treasurer Mikal Watts, childhood Corpus friends with McCracken
Team Leffingwell (anticipated):
David Butts: Every current and recent past City Council member but McCracken, every current and recent past County Commissioner, every current and recent past District Judge, most Austin ISD and ACC board members, Laura Morrison, Woodie Jones and Karen Huber in '08
Mark Nathan: Every current City Council member but McCracken and Morrison, Bill White and Phil Hardberger (with Archer), Lloyd Doggett '04, Austin Bonds '06, Anti-Prop 1 & 2 '06, Anti-Prop. 2 '08, Travis Dem. Coordinated consultant '08, Randi Shade '08, frequent Butts partner, former Archer Nathan partner
Nancy William: Leffingwell aide, former Executive Director of Texas Democratic Party, longtime local Democratic activist
Other key players expected to emerge after likely Leffingwell announcement in mid-January
Longtime labor activist Kitty Clark has been Lee's treasurer in '05 and '08 and will likely be again in '09
Team Levy (anticipated):
Sandra Ramos: Kirk Watson, Travis Dem. Coordinated '06, Sarah Eckhart aide, Started with Karen Huber '08.
There are also rumors that Jack Martin (Public Strategies) is involved in the campaign.
Team Keaton-Rylander-Strayhorn-McClellan (anticipated):
This one is more speculation and rumor than fact. We guess this will be a family affair and Scott and /or Dan McClellan will be involved. Thornton Keel has been CKRSM's campaign treasurer in the past and Louise Epstein is treasurer for CKRSM's "exploratory" committee.
Council Races:
Place 1 (Lee Leffingwell incumbent)
Rick Cofer - manager David Nerio, consultant David Butts
Chris Riley - manager Katherine Haenschen
Perla Cavazos - manager Laurie Felker Jones
Kathie Tovo - consultant Mark Yznaga
Place 2 (Mike Martinez incumbent)
Mike Martinez - consultants David Butts and Mark Nathan
The campaigns between Democrats and Republicans are over (at least for another year). The campaign focus to run toward the center or demonize the other party ended Tuesday but there are still campaigns on the horizon.
Across the state campaigns for city council and mayor are gearing up, and once the holiday cheer fades the spotlight will shine a little brighter on these men and women.
Here is a little holiday guide to what we already know about some key races.
Back in July, David discussed the future San Antonio Mayor's race. Super popular Mayor, Phil Hardberger is term limited, which usually creates the political climate apt for a lot of candidates to get in one race (just think U.S. Senate race if Kay Bailey steps down).
David wrote almost 5 months ago that Julián Castro, Diane Cibrian and Fernando Reyes were all eyeing the race.
Speculation was almost proven right. To date, PR consultant Trish DeBerry, Former Councilman Julian Castro, and Councilwoman Diane Cibrian have all entered the race.
Julian Castro is the favorite in this race.
Castro first ran in 2005 and lost by about 3,000 votes after being down over 10,000 in Early Vote. Castro closed the margin, ran a tough campaign, and made a strong case for his vision for the city and his qualification.
Beyond campaign experience, Castro is the only candidate with a website and the site includes video endorsements from San Antonio State Senator Leticia Van de Putte and Henry Cisneros. Two high profile endorsements in a low turnout election.
For more information about San Antonio politics and San Antonio races, visit Dig Deeper Texas and check out their fine work or the aptly titled San Antonio Mayor Blog.
While the race for Mayor of San Antonio seems cut and dry, the races in Austin seem to be crowded and confusing.
By statute, city council places 2, 5, 6, and the Mayor's office are all up and voters will have to cast a vote in all of them. In addition to these , place 1 may be vacated by Lee Leffingwell if he chooses to run for Mayor. This will create an interesting dynamic since the only two people not running and not on the ballot are newly elected council members Laura Morrison and Randi Shade.
While place 2 and 6 are on the ballot, no serious candidates have emerged to take on either Mike Martinez or Sheryl Cole.
In the place 5 race, Brewster McCracken's current seat, only one candidate has emerged, former city council member and current UT Professor, Bill Spelman.
Spelman already appears to have a large and diverse coalition of supporters surrounding him. It is hard to imagine any candidates trying to challenge Spelman and its even harder to imagine Spelman losing.
While places 2, 5, and 6 already seem to have front-runners, place 1 and the race for Mayor are totally up in the air.
The irony to this is, place 1 isn't on the ballot unless Lee Leffingwell decides to vacate it and run for Mayor and unless Lee runs for Mayor, a lot of candidates won't have a place to run.
Let's start with the assumption Lee Leffingwell runs for Mayor (as is suspected), then the place 1 race looks like it will be Chris Riley, Perla Cavazos, Rick Cofer, and Kathy Tovo. Not quite as easy to manage as the place 5 race, but still interesting.
This race nearly guarantees a runoff. With four candidates who draw from 4 distinct, unique bases it hard to see how anyone will win this in the first round. It also means endorsements and supporters will have a massive impact. Not to mention the always-important fundraising numbers. Unlike any other race, this one is wide open.
Of course, the campaign for place 1 hinges entirely on who runs for Mayor.
Even in the exploring phase, Strayhorn's past is hurting her. It's hard to see how Strayhorn wins even with a small, more conservative electorate. As KT once pointed out, looking at her Governors bid, her base is 21% of the general election vote. This electorate will be closer to 50,000 people and even with a smaller voting population its hard to see how Strayhorn gets to 50% plus 1.
Especially with Mayor Pro Tem McCracken running and former Texas Monthly editor Mike Levy.
While the field is predictably crowded, it is also diverse. No two candidates appear to have similar backgrounds or messages. Leffingwell and McCracken get close, but their priorities in the council have differed. Leffingwell has been an environmental leader and Brewster has focused on women's issues. It's an over simplification, but shows the contrast in policy priorities.
If Facebook groups and supporter lists are any indication on who the front runners are, this race is between Leffingwell and McCracken.
All in all, the city council races look to be very interesting this year.
