Capital Area Asian American Democrats Release Travis County Polling

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 09:15 PM CST

CAAAD has previously polled in Austin, last released in the 2008 City Races, and privately in past primaries for its endorsed candidates. While limited, they have had a decent track record in accurately polling races, both in a review of their public and private numbers which I've had the opportunity to check. I say that largely to pre-empt the inevitable dismissal of results by campaigns they do not favor.

This matches up with the word on the street and rumored polls showing Bill White absolutely killing the Democratic field for Governor in Travis County. With White pulling in numbers akin to his re-election rates as Mayor of Houston (91% and 87%) the race is on for second place for the rest of the field in Austin. Talk about embarrassing for Farouk Shami's multi-million dollar campaign. Ouch.

If these numbers turn out to be true, Amy Clark Meachum is well positioned heading into Election Day.

As many have expected, the 299th District Court appears to be heading to a runoff. What is unexpected is that Mindy Montford may be the vote leader heading into a runoff. It should be noted, that if the 20% undecided break in the same way as those who have made up their mind, there is a chance that Montford could break 50% and win the election without a runoff. I'd argue that the undecided vote is more likely choosing between Montford and Sage meaning there is little additional support to be coming to Martinez or Schatelowitz-Alcantar, which makes this 4-way race much more of a 2-way race in the final days.

Further down the ballot there are more undecided voters here than anywhere else. Separated by single digits, Lipscombe has the advantage needing far fewer of the remaining undecideds to break his way. But Seelig isn't out of the game after winning the endorsement from the Statesman and making a late loan of over $30,000 to her campaign.

And as a bonus question unrelated to this year's primaries...

For more information, you can visit www.BagtheBags.com with regard to that final question.

Seven Austin Democratic Clubs Release Endorsements

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 01:33 AM CST

Below are the results; a key is located at the bottom to decode the club acronyms. Also to note, the Austin Tejano Democrats do not endorse in statewide races which is left to the statewide organization which supports White, Chavez-Thompson, Uribe and Gilbert.. Circle C Democrats do not endorse in the JP or County Commissioner races in which they are not located.

For the statewide candidates, I don't think there was ever a question that these informed Democrats were every going to endorse anyone other than White & Gilbert. In the two low information races, it's interesting that Hector Uribe also took a clean sweep while the Lt. Gov primary was a mixed bag. Chavez-Thompson may be the pick of statewide insiders, but Earle seems to be more comfortable choice for Austin voters which won't be surprising since he's an Austin boy.

As we head farther down ballot, a couple of candidates are breathing easier tonight. Rebecca Bell-Metereau is going to feel better coming away with a clean sweep in order to help maximize her ability to avoid a runoff in her 4-way race in massive district with little money. Brown & Crain's clean sweeps are reassuring against last minute opponents. Sage won back some momentum in the 299th race (and won a runoff with Leonard Martinez in the ATD group) but it's likely that the 299th will be a runoff between Sage and Montford regardless.

The big winner of the judicial races is John Lipscombe who was not expected to win an majority of endorsements tonight but swept the 5 that did endorse. Lipscombe tied among the Austin Tejano Democrats- a club that Seelig should have won outright. Circle C was split by a vote or two and doesn't endorse in those situations.

In this race, CAPD issued no endorsement and Circle C did not have it on the ballot. This was a needed series of wins for Alvarez.

Nothing unexpected here. BAD had no endorsement in JP5 because of a ballot error and may re-endorse later. Bradford failed to make much of a dent in the JP1 open seat even though this was the first time many people had actually heard from his opponent.

One final note on this set of endorsements. One thing that is pretty clear is how efficient the Austin Democratic Machine can be. You can tell where it is engaged or disengaged. For instance, Shami can't buy off any of it and probably won't win a single endorsement in Austin anyways. The Machine doesn't care about the Lt. Governor's race and that was the most split race tonight. The Machine is fully lined up behind Cliff Brown & David Crain. It has blessed Amy Clark Meachum to steamroll over Jan Patterson and that is happening perfectly.

The biggest test was County Court at Law #3 and tonight's results will give comfort to any wobbly players to go with Lipscombe. The Machine isn't in full agreement or engagement yet in the 299th District Court race because of the last minute array of candidates but will probably organize itself in the runoff. And in the JP races- the Machine recognizes that Williams is the chosen African American replacement for that district and while she's relatively unknown, she's got the nod of support. There are a couple of different machines in the Commissioner 4 race which are pulling in different directions (and without much direction).

But that's our local democracy.  

DNC Asian American Pacific Islander Caucus Reception in Austin - Sept. 10

by: PI Lawyer

Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 02:55 PM CDT

The Texas Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community has played a key role in the state's tremendous political transformation.  AAPIs comprise approximately 3.5% of the state population, but exceed 15% or even 20% in certain political subdivisions in Austin, Dallas, and Houston; additionally, AAPIs are one of the fastest growing populations in Texas.  And like other Texans, AAPIs are voting more and more Democratic.  According to exit polling conducted by the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund, 76% of AAPIs voted for President Barack Obama.  Among US-born AAPIs, President Obama's margin was even higher with 87% of the vote.

Democrats believe that Texas and the AAPI community are central to their efforts to achieve meaningful and lasting reform.  The Asian American Democrats of Texas - AADT, recognized by the Texas Democratic Party as the representative Texas caucus for Asian Americans, is hosting a reception for local AAPI Democrats, members of the DNC's AAPI Caucus, and local and national party and elected officials.  The reception will take place at Chinatown Restaurant at 3407 Greystone Drive near MoPac from 6:00 to 8:00 PM.  Complimentary appetizers will be served, and the event is free and open to the public.  More information is available at the Asian American Democrats of Texas's website, www.aadt.us, or by e-mailing mail@aadt.us or calling 512.326.0222.

2008 Austin City Council Poll

by: PI Lawyer

Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 06:10 PM CDT

On Wednesday, April 16, the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (CAAAD) Asian American Progress PAC commissioned a poll with IVR Polls for the upcoming Austin City Council elections.

The results reveal few surprises.  As with previous council races, most likely voters are currently undecided. In line with expectations, Council Member Leffingwell has a sizeable lead in the Place 1 race, the Place 3 race is the most competitive, and the six way race for the open seat in Place 4 is wide open with the largest percentage of undecided voters.

As with any poll, take the info with a grain of salt.  Given the huge percentage of undecided voters and the fact that this poll was taken almost a month before the election, the numbers are almost guaranteed to change substantially.  History has shown that most voters don't start paying attention to City Council elections or solidifying their decisions until the last few weeks before Election Day; very few people are thinking about this race right now.

If you like the work CAAAD has been doing to help Democrats win and would like to support our efforts on behalf of the Democratic Party, please visit our ActBlue page and leave us a tip!

IRV Polls surveyed 517 likely City Council voters on April 16.  The survey's margin of error is +/- 4.3%.

Place 1
Lee Leffingwell 36.6% Lee Leffingwell 37.5%
Jason Meeker    12.1% Jason Meeker    13.7%
Allen Demling    4.8% Allen Demling    3.9%
Undecided       46.6% Undecided       44.9%

Place 3
Randi Shade     24.5% Randi Shade     26.4%
Jennifer Kim    23.5% Jennifer Kim    24.9%
Ken Weiss       11.4% Ken Weiss       11.3%
Undecided       40.6% Undecided       37.4%

Place 4
Cid Galindo     12.6% Cid Galindo     11.9%
Laura Morrison  11.2% Laura Morrison  10.3%
Jennifer Gale    9.3% Robin Cravey    10.2%
Robin Cravey     8.1% Jennifer Gale    8.0%
Ken Vasseau      4.3% Ken Vasseau      4.8%
Sam Osemene      3.6% Sam Osemene      4.8%
Undecided       51.1% Undecided       50.0%