(The Capital Area Asian American Democrats have a multi-year tradition now of conducting public polling in area races. Their polling has been quite accurate in the races they have measured in recent years. Given the later (we think) primary date this year, campaigns will have more time to move their numbers- some have farther to go than others it would appear. - promoted by Burnt Orange Report)
Capital Area Asian American Democrats sponsored this poll of the upcoming Travis County Democratic Primary:
CAAAD 2012 Travis County Democratic Primary Poll
1. In the campaign for Travis County District Attorney, the candidates are Rosemary Lehmberg and Charlie Baird. If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for:
56.4% Rosemary Lehmberg
17.6% Charlie Baird
25.9% Undecided
2. In the campaign for Travis County Sheriff, the candidates are Greg Hamilton and John Sisson. If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for:
50.0% Greg Hamilton
13.6% John Sisson
36.6% Undecided
3. In the campaign for 167th District Court Judge, the candidates are Efrain De La Fuente, David Wahlberg and Bryan Case. If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for:
30.0% Efrain De La Fuente
18.9% David Wahlberg
15.1% Bryan Case
35.7% Undecided
4. In the campaign for Travis County Tax Assessor-Collector, the candidates are Bruce Elfant and Stanley Wilson. If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for:
48.1% Bruce Elfant
16.0% Stanley Wilson
35.9% Undecided
Southwest Opinion Research conducted this survey for the Capital Area Asian American Democrats on Monday January 30th and Tuesday January 31st. The survey was conducted using IVR. The sample universe included voters likely to vote in the 2012 Democratic Primary who had voted in the 2006, 2008 or 2010 Democratic primaries. The order of candidate choices was rotated. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%, n=460.
(Bumped for our weekday readers as this was a rare weekend poll post. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
One of the things that I look forward to doing more of this year is commissioning polling on under polled races in Texas. As such, I'd like to extend my thanks to the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (CAAAD), who have commissioned a poll of select competitive Travis County Democratic Primary races. (I'd also like to thank CAAAD for their advertising here on BOR as regular readers may have noticed in the past week).
CAAAD has previously polled in Austin, last released in the 2008 City Races, and privately in past primaries for its endorsed candidates. While limited, they have had a decent track record in accurately polling races, both in a review of their public and private numbers which I've had the opportunity to check. I say that largely to pre-empt the inevitable dismissal of results by campaigns they do not favor.
Poll Results IVR Poll conducted Feb 25th, 2010 by KCZ Consulting for CAAAD, choices rotated
Governor, Democratic Primary: MoE = 4.3%
Bill White 85.0%
Farouk Shami 5.8%
Someone Else 2.8%
Undecided 6.4%
This matches up with the word on the street and rumored polls showing Bill White absolutely killing the Democratic field for Governor in Travis County. With White pulling in numbers akin to his re-election rates as Mayor of Houston (91% and 87%) the race is on for second place for the rest of the field in Austin. Talk about embarrassing for Farouk Shami's multi-million dollar campaign. Ouch.
201st District Court: MoE = 4.7%
Amy Clark Meachum 52.1%
Jan Patterson 27.2%
Undecided 20.6%
If these numbers turn out to be true, Amy Clark Meachum is well positioned heading into Election Day.
299th District Court: MoE = 4.6%
Mindy Montford 40.8%
Karen Sage 31.4%
Leonard Martinez 5.8%
Eve Schatelowitz Alcantar 2.1%
Undecided 19.9%
As many have expected, the 299th District Court appears to be heading to a runoff. What is unexpected is that Mindy Montford may be the vote leader heading into a runoff. It should be noted, that if the 20% undecided break in the same way as those who have made up their mind, there is a chance that Montford could break 50% and win the election without a runoff. I'd argue that the undecided vote is more likely choosing between Montford and Sage meaning there is little additional support to be coming to Martinez or Schatelowitz-Alcantar, which makes this 4-way race much more of a 2-way race in the final days.
County Court at Law #3: MoE = 5.5%
John Lipscombe 42.3%
Olga Seelig 33.7%
Undecided 24.0%
Further down the ballot there are more undecided voters here than anywhere else. Separated by single digits, Lipscombe has the advantage needing far fewer of the remaining undecideds to break his way. But Seelig isn't out of the game after winning the endorsement from the Statesman and making a late loan of over $30,000 to her campaign.
And as a bonus question unrelated to this year's primaries...
Do you support or oppose the City of Austin banning the use of plastic bags by large retailers? MoE = 5.5%
Support 50.2%
Oppose 28.2%
Undecided 21.7%
For more information, you can visit www.BagtheBags.com with regard to that final question.
Last night, nearly a dozen Democratic clubs were represented at the Travis County Democratic Candidates' Forum in East Austin. Of those clubs, seven issued endorsements in statewide and local races.
Below are the results; a key is located at the bottom to decode the club acronyms. Also to note, the Austin Tejano Democrats do not endorse in statewide races which is left to the statewide organization which supports White, Chavez-Thompson, Uribe and Gilbert.. Circle C Democrats do not endorse in the JP or County Commissioner races in which they are not located.
Governor
Bill White: BAD, CAAAD, CAPD, CCAD, CCYD, NETCO, TED
Lt. Governor
Ronnie Earle: BAD, CAAAD, CAPD, CCAD, TED (dual)
Linda Chavez-Thompson: CCYD, NETCO, TED (dual)
For the statewide candidates, I don't think there was ever a question that these informed Democrats were every going to endorse anyone other than White & Gilbert. In the two low information races, it's interesting that Hector Uribe also took a clean sweep while the Lt. Gov primary was a mixed bag. Chavez-Thompson may be the pick of statewide insiders, but Earle seems to be more comfortable choice for Austin voters which won't be surprising since he's an Austin boy.
331st District Court David Crain: ATD, BAD, CAAAD, CAPD, CCAD, CCYD, NETCO, TED
County Court at Law #3 John Lipscombe: BAD, CAAAD, CAPD, CCYD, NETCO, TED
As we head farther down ballot, a couple of candidates are breathing easier tonight. Rebecca Bell-Metereau is going to feel better coming away with a clean sweep in order to help maximize her ability to avoid a runoff in her 4-way race in massive district with little money. Brown & Crain's clean sweeps are reassuring against last minute opponents. Sage won back some momentum in the 299th race (and won a runoff with Leonard Martinez in the ATD group) but it's likely that the 299th will be a runoff between Sage and Montford regardless.
The big winner of the judicial races is John Lipscombe who was not expected to win an majority of endorsements tonight but swept the 5 that did endorse. Lipscombe tied among the Austin Tejano Democrats- a club that Seelig should have won outright. Circle C was split by a vote or two and doesn't endorse in those situations.
Travis County Commissioner, Pct 4
Margaret Gomez: BAD
Raul Alvarez: ATD, CAAAD, CCYD, NETCO, TED
In this race, CAPD issued no endorsement and Circle C did not have it on the ballot. This was a needed series of wins for Alvarez.
Justice of the Peace, Pct 1 Yvonne Williams: ATD, BAD, CAAAD, CAPD, NETCO, TED
Daniel Bradford: CCYD
Justice of the Peace, Pct 2 Karin Crump: ATD, BAD, CAAAD, CAPD, CCYD, NETCO, TED
Justice of the Peace, Pct 5 Herb Evans: ATD, CAAAD, CAPD, CCYD, NETCO, TED
Nothing unexpected here. BAD had no endorsement in JP5 because of a ballot error and may re-endorse later. Bradford failed to make much of a dent in the JP1 open seat even though this was the first time many people had actually heard from his opponent.
One final note on this set of endorsements. One thing that is pretty clear is how efficient the Austin Democratic Machine can be. You can tell where it is engaged or disengaged. For instance, Shami can't buy off any of it and probably won't win a single endorsement in Austin anyways. The Machine doesn't care about the Lt. Governor's race and that was the most split race tonight. The Machine is fully lined up behind Cliff Brown & David Crain. It has blessed Amy Clark Meachum to steamroll over Jan Patterson and that is happening perfectly.
The biggest test was County Court at Law #3 and tonight's results will give comfort to any wobbly players to go with Lipscombe. The Machine isn't in full agreement or engagement yet in the 299th District Court race because of the last minute array of candidates but will probably organize itself in the runoff. And in the JP races- the Machine recognizes that Williams is the chosen African American replacement for that district and while she's relatively unknown, she's got the nod of support. There are a couple of different machines in the Commissioner 4 race which are pulling in different directions (and without much direction).
(Another event for folks to attend later this week during the DNC meeting in Austin. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Recognizing the growing opportunities for political change in Texas, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is holding their next quarterly national meeting in Austin from September 10 through 12.
The Texas Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community has played a key role in the state's tremendous political transformation. AAPIs comprise approximately 3.5% of the state population, but exceed 15% or even 20% in certain political subdivisions in Austin, Dallas, and Houston; additionally, AAPIs are one of the fastest growing populations in Texas. And like other Texans, AAPIs are voting more and more Democratic. According to exit polling conducted by the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund, 76% of AAPIs voted for President Barack Obama. Among US-born AAPIs, President Obama's margin was even higher with 87% of the vote.
Democrats believe that Texas and the AAPI community are central to their efforts to achieve meaningful and lasting reform. The Asian American Democrats of Texas - AADT, recognized by the Texas Democratic Party as the representative Texas caucus for Asian Americans, is hosting a reception for local AAPI Democrats, members of the DNC's AAPI Caucus, and local and national party and elected officials. The reception will take place at Chinatown Restaurant at 3407 Greystone Drive near MoPac from 6:00 to 8:00 PM. Complimentary appetizers will be served, and the event is free and open to the public. More information is available at the Asian American Democrats of Texas's website, www.aadt.us, or by e-mailing mail@aadt.us or calling 512.326.0222.
(Bumped. This came out last Friday afternoon so many of our weekday readers may have missed it. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Earlier I promoted a post regarding some poll results in the Austin City Council races conducted by the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (consider making a donation to them to cover the cost of the poll like I did). I received word that the results were slightly off as they were the raw numbers prior to being weighted to the electorate.
I have posted the official poll results below. The changes are marginal but do reflect a lower level of undecided voters across the board and Robin Cravey swaps positions with Jennifer Gale in Place 4.
Here are the actual poll results.
IVR Polls surveyed 517 likely City Council voters on April 16. The survey's margin of error is +/- 4.3%.
Place 1
Lee Leffingwell 37.5%
Jason Meeker 13.7%
Allen Demling 3.9%
Undecided 44.9%
Place 3
Randi Shade 26.4%
Jennifer Kim 24.9%
Ken Weiss 11.3%
Undecided 37.4%
Place 4
Cid Galindo 11.9%
Laura Morrison 10.3%
Robin Cravey 10.2%
Jennifer Gale 8.0%
Ken Vasseau 4.8%
Sam Osemene 4.8%
Undecided 50.0%
We don't usually have an opportunity to see a poll like this so what does it tell us? First off, according to the pollster, these respondents are those who self-identified themselves as planning to vote in the city elections, so the undecideds, while high, are not inflated by unlikely voters.
That said- it's clear that these races are very fluid and voter contact via TV, Radio, and Mail will play a large role in the next 3 weeks.
In Place 1, Leffingwell clearly has an established lead with Meeker having to work to get beyond his base if he's to have any chance. This concurs with the wideheld assumption that Leffingwell is headed to victory without a runoff.
In Place 3, a statistical tie exists and while always predicted to be a hard fought race, I wouldn't have guessed that Shade would have had this level of support prior to entering the paid media phase of the campaign (which against an incumbent is a place she's probably happy to be in). Still, it's anyone game, but unless Kim or Shade is able to boost their margins, they'll be going head to head until the June runoff and a long campaign and smaller electorate could shift the electoral dynamics.
In Place 4, it is clear that the lack of an incumbent has the race wide open for whom is going to face off in a June runoff. Morrison, having won the lion's share of endorsements and some of the city's better consultants, does not have the poll numbers to back up what many had perceived to be frontrunner status. There is a clear separation of the field in this place with Gale providing the dividing line of those who are contenders and those who are not; Gale, of course, being in a class of her own.
Also, people may have underestimated the power that a Hispanic surname has, even in city elections (note- he has done some tv already). Combine that with a candidate likely to pick up the moderate to center-right city voters, and we may be dealing with a battle between Morrison and Cravey for which progressive will get to take on Cid Galindo in a runoff. Still, the race has the most undecided voters and is wide open so there is a reasonable chance that we get a Morrison-Cravey runoff that makes Austin lefties a little less anxious.
Share your own thoughts in the comments. The poll script is in the extended entry.
Correction: According to IVR, the initial numbers we posted were slightly off because they accidentally updated the linked values in the file they sent us without the correct file to which the values were linked. The corrections are reflected below. None of the numbers changed significantly enough to alter the analysis. We apologize for the confusion.
On Wednesday, April 16, the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (CAAAD) Asian American Progress PAC commissioned a poll with IVR Polls for the upcoming Austin City Council elections.
The results reveal few surprises. As with previous council races, most likely voters are currently undecided. In line with expectations, Council Member Leffingwell has a sizeable lead in the Place 1 race, the Place 3 race is the most competitive, and the six way race for the open seat in Place 4 is wide open with the largest percentage of undecided voters.
As with any poll, take the info with a grain of salt. Given the huge percentage of undecided voters and the fact that this poll was taken almost a month before the election, the numbers are almost guaranteed to change substantially. History has shown that most voters don't start paying attention to City Council elections or solidifying their decisions until the last few weeks before Election Day; very few people are thinking about this race right now.
If you like the work CAAAD has been doing to help Democrats win and would like to support our efforts on behalf of the Democratic Party, please visit our ActBlue page and leave us a tip!
IRV Polls surveyed 517 likely City Council voters on April 16. The survey's margin of error is +/- 4.3%.
Place 1 Lee Leffingwell 36.6% Lee Leffingwell 37.5%
Jason Meeker 12.1% Jason Meeker 13.7%
Allen Demling 4.8% Allen Demling 3.9%
Undecided 46.6% Undecided 44.9%
Place 3 Randi Shade 24.5% Randi Shade 26.4%
Jennifer Kim 23.5% Jennifer Kim 24.9%
Ken Weiss 11.4% Ken Weiss 11.3%
Undecided 40.6% Undecided 37.4%
Place 4 Cid Galindo 12.6% Cid Galindo 11.9%
Laura Morrison 11.2% Laura Morrison 10.3%
Jennifer Gale 9.3% Robin Cravey 10.2%
Robin Cravey 8.1% Jennifer Gale 8.0%
Ken Vasseau 4.3% Ken Vasseau 4.8%
Sam Osemene 3.6% Sam Osemene 4.8%
Undecided 51.1% Undecided 50.0%
