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Burnt Orange Political Report 
Wed Jan 13, 2010 at 10:10 AM CST
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Cross-posted from TexasVox
What's the difference between the Pete Sessions / Allen Stanford scandal and Pretty Woman?
A: Julia Roberts won't kiss you-- for any amount of money
The bubbling scandal over the "mini Madoff", R. Allen Stanford, and the Ponzi scheme he (allegedly) engineered in his bank, Stanford Financial, continues to percolate and slime everyone he had dealings with.
Let's briefly reset the stage, shall we? Sir R. Allen Stanford was a relatively big financier, meaning he would take your money, invest it, then give you a healthy return. Of course, what he is accused of doing by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is "massive ongoing fraud" of investment funds worth over $8 billion. Allegations are that Stanford would take your money, use it to pay other clients who had previously invested with him, and then take money from others and give it to you-this is what is known as a "Ponzi scheme" and is the same thing Bernie Madoff was convicted of. But with Stanford it's much less clear, as many of his bank accounts are hidden in notorious banking black holes in various Caribbean islands, so Stanford is not yet convicted of anything: we should continue to give him the presumption of innocence that our legal system affords him. Ditto on the allegations that he laundered money for the Mexican Gulf Cartel or cheated on his personal and property taxes to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
However, the following are facts which are NOT in dispute. Stanford threw money around Congress and various elections like it was water, with over $2.4 million given to various candidates from Stanford, Stanford Financial's PAC, and its employees bundling their donations. These donations were often given to individuals who sat on committees who would mark up a bill which would regulate financial securities and clamp down on fraud-- the same fraud he is now alleged to have been perpetrating. Convenient, no?
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Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 08:43 AM CST
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A friend of mine who works in the Texas Legislature just forwarded me this e-mail, and I had to share this with you guys, in light of the fact that Dubya is moving back to Texas to help raise money for the Texas Republican Party in hopes of keeping Texas red in 2010 and 2012.
I'm a very proud Texas Democrat, and I love my state. I'm going to work my little backside off to make it a blue state in 2010 and 2012! With this said, please join me in laughing at the ineptness and utter cluelessness of the Texas Republican Party as they continue to wander in the desert for the next 40 years.
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Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 11:21 AM CST
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Get Texas Election Results via Twitter Tuesday. Sign up now here. This is going to have to be an abbreviated set of predictions, but here they go: Federal Races - Presidential: Obama 358 (51.4%), McCain 180 (48%)
- TX-Sen: Cornyn 54, Noriega 46
- TX-10: McCaul 51, Doherty 49
- TX-7: Culberson 52, Skelly 48
- TX-22: Olson 49.5, Lampson 49
State Senate Races - Chris Bell & Wendy Davis both win
State House Races - Democrats Net 5 Seats, Finish 76-74 D Advantage
Lean Democrat (Democrats Wins All 3 Challenge Races)
- HD 17: Donnie Dippel (protection seat)
- HD 32: Juan Garcia (protection seat)
- HD 97: Dan Barrett (protection seat)
- HD 52: Diana Maldonado (challenge race)
- HD 96: Chris Turner (challenge race)
- HD 102: Carol Kent (challenge race)
- HD 149: Hubert Vo (protection seat)
Toss-Up (Democrats win 2 of 5)
- HD 55: Sam Murphey (challenge race)
- HD 78: Joe Moody (challenge race)
- HD 101: Robert Miklos (challenge race)
- HD 129: Sherrie Matula (challenge race)
- HD 144: Joel Redmond (challenge race)
My thoughts on the State House are as follows: - Maldonado & Turner have run excellent races. They should be our best pick-ups.
- Carol Kent has run a terrific race, Rep. Goolsby is floundering, and the massive turnout of Obama voters in Dallas County will put her over the top
- If we lose any "hold" seat, it will be the Dippel race.
- Even if we lose Dippel, winning 2-3 of the "toss-up" races could pull it off.
- Moody & Miklos could win if there is a strong Obama tide; otherwise, they aren't likely.
- Redmond is going to outright win, w/ the Harris County efforts putting him over the top.
- Murphey has run a silent, quiet ground game that has put him within close striking range.
- Matula has run the most aggressive field program in that district in many, many years -- if there is a big Obama wave in Harris County, she could combine her hard work with Obama coattails for a narrow, narrow win.
Best of luck to all Texas Democrats today. I really hope I'm right.
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Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 01:37 PM CDT
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Click here to return to the Burnt Orange Political Report home page. Earlier this morning, I started to write about how Senator Obama's money could benefit Democrats running for the Texas House: If we can protect all of our incumbents, win a few of the open seats and win a few challenge races, then we can elect -- to use the term of "Orange to Blue" framing -- a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House.
I went on to discuss at least three direct positives from having a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House. However, I wouldn't expect anyone to send money to a state where it wouldn't be effective, and though it may be a motivating idea, hope is not a strategy. Looking at this week's State House predictions for the Burnt Orange Politial Report, though, I can confidently make an argument that Texas Democrats don't need need to rely on hope alone as a strategy. There is a clear path to victory for a Democratic Majority in the Texas House. Here's how it happens -- counting up from our current 79 Republican, 71 Democrat split: 72nd & 73rd House Democrats: Diana Maldonado & Chris Turner (Lean Democrat)
To learn more about the specifics of each race, click on the links above. Maldonado is running in Williamson County, just north of Travis County (Austin, TX). Southern Williamson County is one of the suburban / ex-urban counties that Democrats are starting to win across the country, as Texas families move away from big city centers to find space, better schools, and a perceived higher quality of life. Maldonado is the former President of the Round Rock ISD Board of Trustees; she has a perfect profile in the district, is dominating in fundraising, and has an excited group of volunteers that are about to send her to the State House in a race where the unpopular incumbent Republican cut and ran. Turner is one of the best campaigners we have in the state. Also with a major fundraising lead, he has worked as District Director for Congressman Chet Edwards -- Chris knows how to run a tough race in Republican country, and the district he's running in isn't that conservative. He's running against right-wing immigrant-bashing nutcase Bill Zedler, whose website prominently features Rush Limbaugh on his site! Maldonado and Turner are both "Lean Democrat" seats. 74th Democrat: Joe Moody in El Paso, TX (Toss-Up) Another open seat, Moody has the best base Democrat vote of any challenger running. A new El Paso Times poll has an inordinate number of undecideds, and I'm told that internal polls show that Moody is poised to do well in the seat. A young, energetic candidate, Moody has shown promise as of late in his efforts to knock on doors in communities typically ignored by elected officials. We also have today's news that Moody's signs are showing up at GOP headquarters. If there is strong Hispanic GOTV efforts in El Paso County for Senator Obama, Moody will sweep into office no question. But this is definitely a place where extra money from Senator Obama for GOTV efforts could help him, not only to increase his own % of the Hispanic vote, but to elect another Democrat to the State House. 75th Democrat: Joel Redmond in Harris County (Toss-Up)
Redmond is running in an open seat that was vacated by a staunch conservative who happened to be opposed to our entrenched House Speaker, Tom Craddick. Winning this seat, therefore, preserves a vote against a terrible House Speaker AND gets us a Better Demorat to vote on issues. Redmond has knocked almost every door in his district. He's running in Harris County, where the County Coordinated Campaign is running a heavy effort for races up and down the entire ballot. Senator Obama sinking money into GOTV efforts in Harris Count would help push Redmond over the top, as well as help him with U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega, Congressional candidates Larry Joe Doherty and Michael Skelley, and numerous other State House races -- including Redmond. 76th Democrat: Carol Kent in Dallas (Toss-Up) This race has moved up from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up" over the past week. It was always on the verge, and I received more e-mails this week than on any other candidate. Here's how one commenter made the argument: 1) Carol received a strong endorsement from the Dallas Morning News. Harriet Miller did not receive the endorsement in 2006.
2) Carol is an elected official having served on the Richardson School Board since 2004. Most of the district sits within the Richardson School District.
3) The Obama wind behind our back.
4) Carol has done very well with her fundraising.
5) Carol has strong crossover appeal. I've seen many homes with McCain and Kent signs.
6) Republicans who know Goolsby don't like him. Basically they see him as a do-nothing.
I also have had conversations directly with the Kent campaign. I hope to post some of the figures from those conversations later in the week -- but at the end of the day, there are too many positives for Kent in this race to not at least consider it a "Toss-Up." Senator Obama performed well in Dallas County in the primary; he could do well to direct GOTV money towards this other newly-minted Blue area of Texas, both for Texas House races as well as potential races in the State Senate AND to help move Rick Noriega over the hump. Lean Republican Races -- As Many as 80 Democrats? Any one of these races are within range for Democrats this cycle. Murphey -- another Chet Edwards staffer -- is running a perfect ground game in a moderately conservative district. Matula and Thibaut could both benefit from the massive efforts in Harris County this cycle. Miklos is flying under the radar in Dallas now that Kent's campaign is surging, but a strong direct mail program in the last two weeks could push his margins close. All of these races are within a few points -- and a strong, "vote straight Democratic ticket" effort could make the difference. Plans are in place by County Coordinated campaigns and the Texas Democratic Party to hammer home the "vote straight Democrat" message in the final days...but Senator Obama could move $1-2 million into Texas and put all of these races in play immediately. That is the State of the House races two weeks from election day. Will Senator Obama and national Democratic organizations help Texas Democrats just like we've helped them so much over the years? Stay tuned.
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Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 09:00 AM CDT
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Senator Barack Obama is considering sending some money to various national Democratic organizations to help elect more Democrats in down ballot races. There has been tremendous urging for some time -- both here on BOR and, more directly, by the Texas Democratic Party -- for money to be directed to Texas. There are obvious advantages to the money going into our U.S. Senate and Congressional races -- Rick Noriega, Larry Joe Doherty (TX-10) and Michael Skelley (TX-7). The only thing preventing those three candidates from coming to the verge of victory is financial parity. Though Skelley has run an incredible race and is very well-funded, money that can be spent on GOTV efforts in his district help our down-ballot races tremendously. In fact, the money could help us in the Texas House the most. Here's why: If We Win More Races, We Can Elect a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House Simply put, Texas House Democrats picked all the low-hanging fruit some time ago. We're deep into the orchard now, and the more money, the larger GOTV plans we can run across the state. Going back to what I wrote in the first Burnt Orange Political Report, I have to stress how large of a challenge Texas Democrats are facing this cycle: The Texas House districts were drawn to elect nearly 100 Republicans. Five years ago, House Republicans led the chamber 88-62. Today, that lead has dwindled to 79-71 -- and without too much imagination, we may yet see Texas Democrats retake the Texas House. It will take serious work, though. Texas Democrats are running in deeply Republican districts across the state. That's a sign of how terribly the Republican brand of governing -- led by House Speaker Tom Craddick -- has failed Texas families over the past five years...House Democrats will gain net seats this cycle -- the question is just, how many.
If Democrats can net four seats this cycle -- which would be a tremendous accomplishment no one should sneer at -- then the Texas House will be a tie, 75-75, and in all likelihood we will have to settle for a "compromise" Republican or Democrat for Speaker of the House. While a compromise is an improvement over Speaker Tom Craddick, it could leave us with that compromise candidate in 2011, when the redistricting plans would need to be passed. No Republican, period, will ever let us pass a fair redistricting plan out of the Texas House; to believe otherwise is just plain stupid. And I don't feel confident in either of the two "compromise" TX House Democrat members that are often floated as potential candidates for Speaker in the event that it's very close. (And I pray that we net 5-6 seats so I don't have to write those posts, but if we have to, we will...) Besides, if we want to win a redistricting fight in 2010, then we need a smart negotiator who can argue from a position of strength. If we can protect all of our incumbents, win a few of the open seats and win a few challenge races, then we can elect -- to use the term of "Orange to Blue" framing -- a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House. Here's the three things a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House accomplishes (click "There's More"):
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Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 01:10 PM CDT
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Earlier, KT, Matt and I compared and contrasted the "old media voodoo predictions and new media facts and analysis" styles of making predictions on Texas House races. Our fundamental problem was that the old media -- and the old consultant class, which is apparently who Burka was talking to -- use terrible, terrible logic and analysis at looking at House races. They are thinking about things as if we still lived in the 1980's. Many Democrats, though, believe that research and facts should dictate analysis and predictions. The Lone Star Project has, for the past few years, done excellent work on fact-based research and analysis. Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, shared with me how they analyze House races -- and it is really quite interesting. Lone Star Project's Advanced Analysis Structures for Analyzing Races First of all, I must impress on our readers that this is just the "top line" analysis numbers. There is a much, much, much more sophisticated voter identification processes that goes into all of this -- but that's not we're talking about. This is the "top line", or the basics, as to how the Lone Star Project uses fact-based research and analysis to predict House races, and Angle shares it with us as a learning tool for our community: From Matt Angle, in an e-mail he sent me earlier today (edited for easier reading): Our straightforward, “top line” analysis starts with - An expected vote calculated by the National Committee for an Effective Congress (NCEC), after consultation with the Lone Star Project. NCEC uses advanced statistical models to predict the expected vote down to the precinct level. Some obvious key elements of their calculation are the number of eligible voters, the number of registered voters, demographics and historical turnout patterns.
- The Lone Star Project takes the NCEC projected vote to calculate our 2008 win number.
- We build toward a win number by stacking the votes Kerry received in 2004 with the 2008 Democratic primary voters who did not vote in 2004. This calculation combines a realistic and conservative base performance (Kerry in 04) with the likely benefit a Democratic candidate will receive from the improved political environment and new Democratic participation in 2008.
Compare that with the models that Burka is repeating, which I guess is being spread by Republicans. Not even close, huh? Angle also shared four PDF models for the four races Burka listed in his post. To see how much better of an analysis the LSP (and even BOR) has in comparison to what Burka shared, here are links to the relevant analysis from all three of us: HD 96 - Democrat Chris Turner vs. Republican Rep. Bill Zedler
HD 97 - Democrat Rep. Dan Barrett vs. Republican Mark Shelton HD 101 - Democrat Robert Miklos vs. Republican Mike Anderson
HD 102 - Democrat Carol Kent vs. Republican Tony GoolsbyWe post this to show how much better it is to use real numbers and real statistics to determine predictions -- and how being public and accountable, as Angle has done today and as we at BOR always strive to do -- is better than using ridiculous models from Austin insiders, like Burka has done. All the more reason to believe Democrats are much, much more organized and prepared to win this year. P.S. If you like the analysis of the Lone Star Project -- or are at least thankful for them openly sharing their top-line analysis like this -- feel free to donate some dollars to their cause.
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Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:14 AM CDT
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Click here to return to the Burnt Orange Political Report home page. Note to readers; I posted 15 resource pages for State House candidates over night. You can see the full list of them here, or scroll down our home page (and onto the next one) to view them all, or click on the links for the races below. Please reference those pages for more information on why we made the predictions we made. The Texas House districts were drawn to elect nearly 100 Republicans. Five years ago, House Republicans led the chamber 88-62. Today, that lead has dwindled to 79-71 -- and without too much imagination, we may yet see Texas Democrats retake the Texas House. It will take serious work, though. Texas Democrats are running in deeply Republican districts across the state. That's a sign of how terribly the Republican brand of governing -- led by House Speaker Tom Craddick -- has failed Texas families over the past five years. However, because we are running in such strong Republican areas, we here at Burnt Orange Report are generally much more conservative with our rankings than you may expect. We fully expect that many of these races are fluid, and that "Lean Republican" can easily become "Toss-Up" and "Lean Democrat" could easily become "Likely Democrat." One thing is certain: the pick-ups in 2004 (Vo, Strama, Leibowitz helped us protect a "net" 1 pickup), 2006 (Howard, Garcia, Bolton, Cohen, Pierson, Vaught) & 2007 (England, Barrett) are a trend. House Democrats will gain net seats this cycle -- the question is just, how many. To start answering that question, here are our predictions: "Likely Democrat" Races All the rural Democrats (Rep. Hopson, Rep. Homer, Rep. McReynolds) and our newest Democrat -- Rep. Kirk England -- are facing challengers, but we don't expect their races to be close. That, in and of itself, is a testament to the success of Texas Democrats. Especially the fact that Rep. Kirk England, who was a Republican State House member just over a year ago, is now running as a Democrat without a serious challenge. Don't get tricked by conservative concern trolls: this is still very much a year for Texas House Democrats. "Lean Democrat" Races: Four "Holds" and Two Potential "Pick-Ups" for Democrats I go into much more details on the State of the Race for each of these campaigns on their resource pages -- so be sure to click on the links above to read more. In short, though, no Democratic incumbent is facing too serious of a challenge (even with the threats of millions of Craddick money coming in the final days) because, quite frankly, all four of those candidates are among our best campaigners in the state. Their races are still within their own control. Rep. Herrero and Rep. Vaught are closer to "Likely Democrat" than "Lean Democrat" but I slotted them here because they are running in two of the most Republican districts of any D incumbent. Rep. Garcia and Rep. Vo are two top targets for the GOP -- but I don't think either is facing too much danger. You'll have to click on their page links to read why. Meanwhile, two challengers already make the "Lean Democrat" list -- TexBlog PAC endorsed candidates Chris Turner and Diana Maldonado. Suffice to say, each is running an excellent campaign, both are right on the issues, and both hold major fundraising leads over their opponents. "Toss-Up" Races: Two "Holds" and Two Potential "Pick-Ups" for Democrats Every one of these races is within very, very close striking distance for Democrats. Donnie Dippel is running an excellent ground game, and Bastrop County is going to go strong Democratic this year. Dan Barrett has three negative mailers on Shelton's position on school vouchers that have already hit households; Shelton has barely released the one. These are tight races to watch -- click on their pages to read more analysis. In two open seats, meanwhile, Democrats have strong chances of picking up seats. Joe Moody has the best Democratic base of any Democrat running to pick-up a seat, and by Labor Day -- over a month ago -- Joel Redmond had already knocked on half of the 40,000 doors of registered voters in his district. I go into more detail in each candidate page about why each stand's an excellent chance of further tightening the margins in the Texas House. "Lean Republican" Races: 5 Democratic Challengers
Every one of these candidates has a real shot at winning in strongly Republican areas of the state. Rather than try to condense their excellent stories here, I promise to write a more detailed post tomorrow outlining each of their chances. For now, though, I'd encourage you to click on the links above and visit their candidate pages. We only need to win one of these five races to break even in the Texas House, and two would give us a clean majority. As I said in the beginning -- Texas Democrats, even though they are running in heavy Republican races, are doing much, much better than enough people are giving them credit for. We here so many isolated stories about different races... But take a look at this page, and these predictions, and understand how close Democrats are to taking back the House this election cycle.
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Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:35 AM CDT
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The Burnt Orange Political Report has two purposes: to provide a central hub for news and resources for all the major Texas races, and to provide accurate predictions for the most competitive races in Texas. Without further ado, here are our official predictions with three weeks to go until the election: To go to the home page for each individual race, click on the hyperlink for each race. Federal Races - U.S. Senate & Congressional Races Not too many real surprises here. Noriega is going to do well with the recent fundraising from the Clintons, but he's still one major game-changer away from pulling the race within close striking distance. In the Congressional races, we start Lampson off conservatively, though his ground game in the district will probably put him over the top. Both Doherty and Skelley are within striking distance, though -- and if the Harris Democratic Party County Coordinated Campaign comes through like we think it might, then the TX-07 race could get real close, real fast. State Senate Races
Bell is in excellent position -- between his strong name ID and campaign and the Republican implosion in that district -- to pick up a Senate seat. Same with Davis; Brimer is already making plans to lose. While either race could easily swing to "toss-up" -- because Republicans aren't giving up those seats without a heck of a fight -- we believe an honest assessment of the State of the Senate Races would have to put those two in the D's column for now. I'm going to do a separate post for State House races. Check back soon!
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Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 04:00 AM CDT
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STATE OF THE RACE: Toss Up Candidate Page: Donnie Dippel
Candidate Page: Tim Kleinschmidt House District Map: District 17
District History: 2006 Election Results Click here to return to the Burnt Orange Political Report home page. 30-Day Out Campaign Finance Report: HD-17: Dippel vs. Kleinschmidt
| Contributions | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | Democrat Donnie Dippel
| $94,304.83 | $23,012.56 | $79,253.96 | Republican Tim Kleinschmidt
| $106,715.00 | $102,528.89 | $28,988.73 | | Dippel/Kleinschmidt Adv. (Noted) | $12,410.17 (Kleinschmidt)
| $79,516.33 (Kleinschmidt)
| $50,265.23 (Dippel)
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In the tightest open race in Texas, Democrat Donnie Dippel is trying to hold onto the race left vacant by retiring Democrat Rep. Robby Cook. Kleinschmidt narrowly lost to Cook in 2006. For this race, we actually have several diaries from our readers that provide excellent coverage: The long and short of the race is simple: this is a race where a considerable amount of the vote is in Bastrop County, where Democrats are well organized and poised to over-perform. The remainder of the district is, like Bastrop, very rural -- but Dippel has the expertise: Meanwhile, long-time Fayette County rancher and ag consultant Donnie Dippel (who would the cows really support, Tim?) is running on a sound platform that speaks to the actual issues affecting working families of the 17th District: fully funding our public schools and bringing back vocational training programs(strengthening the rural labor force), support for rural health care services like CHIP and local hospitals, support for volunteer fire departments and rural law enforcement, repealing the Republican-enacted small business tax, (back to those "small town values" again) , protecting our water resources (as Kleinschmidt sells his water out of the District!) and encouraging economic development in HD-17, with it's mix of rural and exurban communities.
It is a close race because of Kleinschmidt's previous campaigning in the district in 2006 and his fundraising totals. But Dippel is running a smart campaign, and at the end of the day he has a much more concrete plan on where to get the votes to win. Here are some other links that previous coverage of the race on Burnt Orange Report:
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Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:30 AM CDT
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STATE OF THE RACE: Lean Herrero (Democrat Hold)
Candidate Page: Abel Herrero
Candidate Page: Connie Scott House District Map: District 34
District History: 2006 Election Results Click here to return to the Burnt Orange Political Report home page. 30-Day Out Campaign Finance Report: HD-34: Herrero vs. Scott
| Contributions | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | Democrat Abel Herrero
| $126,115.88 | $104,755.50 | $95,081.05 | Republican Connie Scott
| $88,829.26 | $156,405.32 | $61,422.69 | | Herrero/Scott's Adv. (Noted) | $37,286.62 (Herrero)
| $51,649.82 (Scott)
| $33,658.36 (Herrero)
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Democrat Abel Herrero is one of the hardest working members of the entire State Legislature, and I truly don't believe that he will lose this race. That being said, any time that we can expect $250,000 or more to be dropped into a race by Texans for Lawsuit Reform, it would be foolish not to at least give the race a mention. Unfortunately, TLR is going to run into a problem. I'll let Burka take this one: TLR will haul out the tort reform message. Do you really think that tort reform is on the voters’ minds now? That message is going to be delivered during a financial crisis that is being blamed on Republicans. It could be delivered in the closing weeks of a presidential campaign as the Democratic nominee is gaining momentum. Tell me: What will Craddick’s message be?
I know what Rep. Herrero's message will be: a strong fighter for the values of hard-working families. Herrero has done tireless work in the community, and representing HD 34 in the Capitol. A champion of children's health care, affordable access to higher education, ethics reform, and civil liberties, Rep. Herrero is an excellent legislator. Will he have to fight to keep his seat? Yes, and that's why we classify it as a "lean Democrat" race, because anything can happen in politics and one of the easiest catastrophes of campaigns is complacency. But we expect to see Rep. Herrero on the floor of the Texas House next year. Here are some other links that previous coverage of the race on Burnt Orange Report:
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| Who do you support in the 299th District Court Runoff? |
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