BOR: - Bill White

2014 Texas Governor's Race: Democratic Primary Preview

Ben Sherman — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 18:00:00 GMT

The Republican primary is already getting spicy as donors choose between Attorney General Abbott and Governor Perry.

But what's happening on the Democratic side? With Battleground Texas swooping in to give our state the Democratic voter push it needs, the Democratic effort will be one to watch. There are a number of good candidates who may run, but little besides speculation to go on for now. We can expect to see candidate announcements in June, when fundraising commences.

Who's On Deck for 2014?

State Representative Mike Villarreal: Representing San Antonio in the Texas House since 1999, Mike Villarreal has gained a name for himself as a serious legislator with an appealing personality. After growing up in San Antonio, Villarreal went to Texas A&M and then Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and is now pursuing a PhD in public affairs at UT's LBJ School while teaching as an adjunct professor at St. Mary's University. He has spent the last three years focusing on education (a perfect issue to bring statewide) and budget transparency. Villarreal is young, a strong campaigner, and would certainly appeal to Texas's growing Hispanic voting population. The 123rd House District is safely Democratic, making Villarreal an even more appealing potential candidate for Texas Democrats.

Former Houston Mayor Bill White: The Democratic nominee for governor in 2010, Bill White has spent couple of years laying low in Houston while working in investments. White ran an impressive campaign all over Texas in 2010 that garnered national attention, and his loss is blamed in large part on the year's difficulty for Democrats nationwide. A poll released a few weeks ago by Public Policy Polling shows White leading Perry in a 2014 matchup, making a strong case for White's electability. White was a hugely successful mayor, and has a down-to-earth persona appealing to a broad swath of Texans. Earlier in 2010, White sought Kay Bailey Hutchison's Senate seat before she took back her promise to retire. So it's not impossible that White will seek Sen. John Cornyn's Senate seat in 2014. But no one knows what White will do yet - he hasn't said anything either way.

State Senator Kirk Watson: Austin's former mayor is a well-known, personable legislator who would appear to have the energy for a run at the governor's office. He ran for Attorney General in 2002, losing to Greg Abbott, but 2014 is a very different year. Watson might be able to capitalize on his ability to rev up Democrats, six years of experience in the Texas Senate, and plentiful ideas to make a serious run at the governor's office.

Longer shots include...

State Representative Rafael Anchia: Representing Dallas in the Texas House since 2004, Anchia is known as a likable, hard-working legislator. Anchia would certainly run a good campaign with his appeal to both Latinos and Texas's growing 18-35 year old Demographic. Any plans about future runs for office are not yet known.

State Senator Wendy Davis: An energetic and charismatic progressive who singlehandedly forced a special session in 2011 by filibustering the state's inadequate education funding, Davis would be a very good candidate for governor. She's been representing Fort Worth since 2009 and regularly makes lists of state legislators to watch. Even if she doesn't run in 2014, Democrats will be hoping she does soon. Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilbert Hinojosa recently said of Davis, "From the perspective of electability, she's one of our top superstars in Texas. Her sensibility and approach to politics will just automatically propel her as a top candidate for statewide office."

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro: San Antonio's mayor is the top Democrat in Texas and arguably the brightest rising star of Democrats nationwide. From his celebrated keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention to his upcoming autobiography, it's only a matter of time before Castro runs for higher office. But which office will that be? Castro just announced his re-election campaign in the 2013 San Antonio mayor's race, and says he's "not running" for governor in 2014. That's probably true, but he certainly deserves his place on this list - if only for all the buzz you'll hear about him around this race and others.

Whoever the candidate is, expect 2014 to be a year of energetic Democratic campaigning as Texas comes closer and closer to voting blue statewide.

Friday Wrap: Rick Perry, John Cornyn, Ted Cruz, Prop 1, Bill White, and Linda Harper Brown

Burnt Orange Report — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 17:00:00 GMT

It's time for the Friday Wrap, where your Burnt Orange Reporters comment on all the news that fits in a blockquote.

Starting us off, Katherine Haenschen says, when Texas politicos admit they're not already reading the wheninsession tumblr by Christina Gomez, I'm all like:

Below the jump, catch up on Rick Perry, John Cornyn, Ted Cruz, Prop 1, Bill White, Austin parking, and Linda Harper Brown.

On Wednesday, Governor Perry said Greg Abbott told him privately that he won't run for governor if Perry decides to run for governor again. Call it the first attack of the 2014 race; if Abbott runs now, Perry will have already painted him as a liar. That may be the only attack he has on Abbott who's been doing nothing but Perry's legal bidding for years.
-- Ben Sherman

Loser of the week? Senator John Cornyn, who has reduced himself to an appendage of Ted Cruz, and not a particularly strong limb at that. Cornyn, who was by many accounts a reasonable and relatively apolitical Attorney General, has embraced his role in the US Senate first a GOP blast-fax parrot, and now as a Tea Party acolyte determined to ape Cruz in his votes and rhetoric. Whether he fears a primary challenge or just wants to keep his share of the spotlight, Cornyn has taken a sharp turn further to the right, to the detriment of Texas, which now has two senators hell bent and determined not to do anything useful in DC.
-- Katherine Haenschen

Travis County Prop 1 foes are leaving federal court and trying their luck in state court. We have not yet reached out to Planned Parenthood for comment.
-- Edward Garris

I thought that Bill White leading Rick Perry in a poll was cause for motivation. But Hillary Clinton leading Texas in hypothetical presidential match-ups? And against potential Republican nominees not named Perry? Sure, that polling may sound a bit fishy, but no one needs to read a full post today to understand that now is a crucial time for Texas Democrats to get their act together.
-- Michael Hurta

This article on the Austin Post may help Austinites adjust to some facts around parking that every growing city deals with.
-- Karl-Thomas Musselman

Republican Linda Harper-Brown is now Chair of the House Committee on Government Efficiency & Reform. Joe Straus must be trolling everyone, right? Because, in case you don't remember...that's this Linda Harper-Brown.
-- Michael Hurta

The flares at night, are big and bright, dun dun dun dun, deep in the heart of.... North Dakota.
-- Karl-Thomas Musselman

White Leads Perry: Poll Shows Need for Strong Democrat in 2014

Michael Hurta — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 23:25:40 GMT

For the first time in over a decade, a Democrat leads a Republican statewide in a public opinion poll. Sure, it's within the margin of error. And sure, we aren't close to an election and Republicans poll better as we get closer. And sure, the polls that truly matter (in November) show that Texas actually has a very long way to go before electing a Democrat.

But a scientific survey of Texans has a Democrat winning the state.

"If the candidates for Governor next year were Republican Rick Perry and Democrat Bill White, who would you vote for?" asked Public Policy Polling. 47% answered Bill White. 44% answered Rick Perry.

Before we go hootin' and hollerin' in excitement, let's remember that if Rick Perry wants to run for reelection to governor in 2014, Rick Perry is still the favorite. This is just one poll, and we don't even know if Bill White would want to run again. Rick Perry also leads other hypothetical match-ups against Democrats.

But Battleground Texas is getting Democrats excited to compete sooner rather than later and to aggressively campaign instead of simply waiting for demographics. If we're ready to bring the fight to a new level, we need a candidate, too. So, we only hear Greg Abbott's name when people speak of potential challengers to Rick Perry? We can't make Texas a battleground without strong candidates. And if nothing else, this poll shows that even as soon as 2014, a strong Democratic candidate can win Texas.

If you're still unsure; the reasoning is a two-step process. First, Rick Perry is the favorite if he runs again in the Republican Primary. Second, Rick Perry can be beat. But he clearly can't be beat by anybody, so we need someone to step up. Read on below the fold about these two steps.
First: Rick Perry would be the favorite in a 2014 Republican Primary.

Remember how Kay Bailey Hutchison was a big favorite to beat Rick Perry in 2010? Yes, she really was; I know how hard that may be to believe now. But at a similar time in the 2010 cycle, Public Policy Polling published a poll of that hypothetical primary, too. The result? Kay Bailey Hutchison in a landslide, 56% to 31%.

Now, at this point in the 2014 cycle, potential challenger Greg Abbott can't even boast a single point lead. In the poll released today, Rick Perry leads Republican voters over Greg Abbott: 46% to 41%. Think of what will happen after Perry has a successfully conservative legislative session (see: his State of the State) and a campaign to make Abbott appear moderate? I don't care about any Abbott monetary advantage; if Rick Perry wants to stay governor, he can definitely get the nomination. (Note: we saw similar numbers in a BOR PAC poll in May!)

Further proof in the polling: Rick Perry has a 62% approval rating among Republicans. That's a pretty big margin for an "unpopular" governor.

Is there any good news for Greg Abbott in the polling? Sure. More Republicans would generally prefer someone else to Rick Perry, 47% to 41%. And Abbott's approval rating is an impressive 46% approving to 13% disapproving. But he will have a long way to go, and Rick Perry has some sort of Texas Teflon.

Second: Rick Perry can be beat in the general election.

Not since John Sharp led David Dewhurst in a 2002 poll has a Democrat led a Republican in a statewide publicly released survey. Yet, Bill White leads Rick Perry - and by 3 points, too.

Now, if Bill White runs in 2014, that's already a strong candidate who we know can win (if he runs a better campaign than 2010). But as anyone who remembers the 2010 election results can attest, Bill White isn't all that special when it comes to Texas Democrats. Another strong candidate can also succeed.

Notably, however, other candidates polled against Perry were all down by a range of 5 to 7 percentage points in today's poll. (Perry 47% to Julian Castro 42%; Perry 47% to Wendy Davis 41%; and Perry 47% to Annise Parker 40%.) None of those candidates, however, name recognition as high as Bill White. Annise Parker and Wendy Davis don't even have name recognition above 35%.

Any unknown yet strong Democrat has plenty of room to grow.

Yes, Rick Perry would still be the favorite in 2014. He'd be the favorite in both the Republican Primary and the general election, even if Bill White runs. But with some luck, a strong uphill campaign, and whatever magic outside groups like Battleground Texas may bring...A Democrat can beat Rick Perry in 2014.

Democrats can't afford to let Rick Perry sail. We know a strong candidate can win. Now, we'll just have to find one.

The Implications of State Senate Terms on 2014 Statewide Races

Burnt Orange Report — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 16:23:43 GMT

The State Senate drew straws yesterday to determine if each has a 2 or 4 year term before running for re-election. This is customary after an election following a redistricting year in which all Senators must run.

The draw has some major implications for our 2014 statewide races here in Texas on both sides of the aisle, starting, of course, with State Senator Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, a tireless campaigner who drew a 2-year term.

Many Democrats were eyeing Davis as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2014 owing to her fundraising prowess and staunch support of education. Had Davis drawn a 4-year term, thus giving her a "free pass" to run statewide in 2014 without giving up her senate seat, she would have had tremendous encouragement to take the leap and run for governor. Now, her decision becomes somewhat more complicated.

Here are the results from SD-10 in the 2010 and 2008 statewide elections, courtesy of the Texas Legislative Council:

2010 Results in SD-10
38.9% Turnout

Governor
Rick Perry: 52.7%
Bill White: 44.6%
Margin: R+8.1%

Lieutenant Governor
David Dewhurst: 58.2%
Linda Chavez-Thompson: 38.8%
Margin: R+19.4%

2008 Results in SD-10
66.4% Turnout

President
John McCain: 52.1%
Barack Obama: 47.1%
Margin: R+5%

US Senate
John Cornyn: 52.1%
Rick Noriega: 46%
Margin: R+6.1%

Davis won election in 2008 by 2.4% over a Republican incumbent, and won re-election in 2012 by 2.3% over a former State Representative.

Below the jump, find out why Democrats should still be optimistic about Davis in 2014, and what the implications are for the Republicans.
Make no mistake, should Wendy Davis run for re-election to the State Senate -- which I think she will -- she will have a well-funded campaign that again sits at the top of the priority list for Democrats in 2014. In addition to being a statewide leader on education and healthcare issues, Davis is the crucial 12th Democratic state senator, providing us a one-vote cushion to block Republican legislation thanks to the two-thirds rule.

While those 2010 numbers are bracing, several factors should give Democrats hope:

Bill White was able to come very close to the 2008 Obama numbers, suggesting that voters can be persuaded here by strong, well-funded campaigns. And remember, Wendy Davis won in 2008 while Obama did not carry SD-10.
Turnout in midterms is usually lower, so that gives Team Davis more potential voters to target for GOTV and a lower number needed to get them to the polls to win. It also makes the impact of any overlaying Democratic or progressive efforts all the more powerful.
Congressman Marc Veasey's district overlaps with SD-10 and he will be running for re-election for the first time, so ideally he will be able to drive African-American turnout in the district.

Davis will have the funding and the support she needs to run a winning campaign. There's no way to prognosticate now and know if we'll see a Tea Party wave (or any other wave) in 2014 yet, but I'm confident she'll pull it out if she runs for re-election to her senate seat.

Senator Kirk Watson pulled a 2-year straw, and while I'm excited to vote for him again in 2014 this is another case of a statewide leader on budgetary transparency and good government who would be forced to choose between running statewide and winning re-election to his senate seat. Should he go for higher office, his seat would remain reliably Democratic.

Over on the Republican side, State Senator Dan Patrick probably has the worst set of options right now, drawing the two-year straw.

He has signaled some interest in running for Lieutenant Governor and got into a bit of an email spat with Senator John Carona over which man might hypothetically replace The Dew had he won his US Senate race (which he didn't). Meanwhile, Jerry Patterson is running for Lt. Gov (and has the bumper stickers to prove it!) even if that means challenging incumbent David Dewhurst. Other potential candidates include comptroller Susan Combs, fresh off under-estimating statewide revenue by $9 billion, who might also take a tilt at the #2 job in the state.

Should Dewhurst run for re-election -- and why not, what else would the Dew do? -- this is probably his weakest moment, coming off a defeat in the US Senate primary. I've got to assume Patrick is polling the field and assessing whether giving up his seat in the Senate is worth gambling on the Lieutenant Governorship in a crowded Republican field.

Dr. Donna Campbell, who I still can't quite bring myself to call "Senator Campbell," drew a 2-year term. While that shouldn't necessarily give Democrats much hope since SD-25 is still a deep red district, it but does present the possibility of a Republican primary challenge from the slightly less, ahem, reality-challenged faction of the Republican party. Dr. Donna shocked many in Texas when she defeated incumbent Jeff Wentworth in a run-off after a three-way primary including former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones. Those of us who watched her relentless campaigning in 2010 against Congressman Lloyd Doggett -- in which Campbell rode a Tea Party wave to win all but one county in the district, that of Travis -- were perhaps less surprised, given the intensity of her supporters.

Campbell refused to meet with editorial boards during the general election and has largely avoided public scrutiny. Now it will be interesting to see how she tries to position herself knowing that she has to face the Republican primary electorate again in a little over a year.

So who runs for Governor in the Democratic side if Wendy Davis decides to seek re-election to the State Senate?

San Antonio Mayor and national rising star Julian Castro has already ruled it out.

Democrats still have some real work to do to win statewide, but we have tremendous potential and immediate gains that can be realized from smart investment in base mobilization. Our Latino, African-American, and Asian populations present tremendous opportunity for Democrats in Texas, and national attention is again focusing on the real viability of turning Texas blue in the next decade.

It's time for a candidate with the potential to galvanize this wave of minority Texas voters to step up to the plate, and the donor community needs to get behind this person as well. Our most successful candidates for higher office tend to come up from the legislature, so it's worth looking to see which of our Democratic state representatives have the energy and drive to campaign hard for two years in order to move the needle and help make Texas a true swing state, and eventually a blue state.

Bill White Says He Will Not Run for U.S. Senate in 2012

David Mauro — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:27:09 GMT

Two weeks after his loss to Gov. Rick Perry, the former Houston Mayor said he will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2012. Prior to entering the gubernatorial race last year, White had sought the senate seat many had expected Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to vacate. White additionally said he had no plans to run for office in 2014 either and was evaluating future business plans.

The announcement can hardly be described as surprising, though the timing of it may be earlier than many had expected. Former Texas Comptroller John Sharp has said he plans to run for the Senate in 2012 (although his website currently offers advice on how to find "the best male enhancement pills").

The Republican side will likely be crowded, as Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams along with former Secretary of State Roger Williams and State Sen. Florence Shapiro were all planning on running in what they thought would be a special election. Whether they all ultimately run is unknown, but it seems unlikely.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst could be the Republican frontrunner, but his decision will not come until after the upcoming legislative session. Depending on the political climate, Democrats could see a legislator, or perhaps someone we have not even heard of yet, jump in after the legislature adjourns in May.

Update: As Robert points out in the comments, Hutchison has become well known for saying one thing and doing another when it comes to her future in the Senate. While I still expect her not to run again, Robert is right that given her history it is far from a sure thing. However, if she does choose to run again, Hutchison could find herself as a target for a challenge from the right in the Republican Primary.

Rick Perry to Launch National Book Tour, Won't Commit to Full Term as Governor

Phillip Martin — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 22:54:29 GMT

Sign up to GOTV for Bill White this weekend.

Rick Perry has made two announcements of national significance this weekend: he is going on a national book tour and he won't commit to a full term as Governor.

First, on the book tour. From the Associated Press, "White, Perry each try to rally faithful in strongholds"

Speaking on a campaign plane between Lubbock and Midland, Perry said he would keep up the pressure by staging a book tour soon after the election. He said he's putting himself on the national stage to promote states' rights, not his own career. Asked if he might run for president in 2012, the governor said, "No. I've answered that about as many times and as many ways as I can."

Perry followed that up by saying he won't promise that he'll serve his full term as Governor. Also from the Houston Chronicle, "No slowing down for Perry, White as vote nears":

If his message propels him to another term as governor, however, Perry is not guaranteeing he will serve the full four years.
"I'm guaranteeing people that I'll get in there and do the best job I can for 'em as governor," Perry told reporters on a flight from Lubbock to Midland during Friday's West Texas campaign swing. "I just think it's always very premature to be making a statement about what you're going to be doing two, four, six or eight years from now - I don't ever take anything off the table."

Bill White released the following statement regarding Perry's national stage presence:

"Staging a self-promoting book tour in the face of a crisis? We deserve a real leader, not a yell leader. I will tackle the budget crisis by squeezing efficiency out of Texans' tax dollars, while Perry's going to be squeezing dollars out of his book tour," said Bill White.

"Only a relentlessly self-promoting, 25-year career politician could dream of launching a book tour three months before what will be the most important legislative session in decades as Texas faces down a $25 billion budget deficit. Texans are 'Fed Up!' with a governor who's only in it for himself and will be firing him on Tuesday. So he'll have a lot of time for those Barnes and Nobles in Iowa and New Hampshire," said Katy Bacon, campaign spokesperson.

Perry's national ambitions have been in question for some time. Jim Henson with the University of Texas thinks he'll run for President:

“I don’t think anybody should expect Rick Perry to announce any plans he has when he’s concluding a campaign that was hinged on defining Washington, D.C., as toxic,” said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project and a lecturer in the government department at the University of Texas at Austin.
Henson predicted Perry’s debut in the race for presidential nominee: His supporters will draft him as a successful governor who must come albeit reluctantly — to Washington to clean it up.

We'll see what happens. Perry has been polling in Iowa...

Rick Perry Cleaned Records for Thousands of Sex Offenders

Phillip Martin — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 15:11:07 GMT

For six years, Rick Perry let as many as 2,000 sex offenders roam free -- and we know full well that at least one of those sex offenders returned to Texas.

The hammer has dropped. No more puppies and kittens. From Bill White himself:

"Rick Perry cleaned the records of thousands of convicted sex offenders who were deported and kept this policy until we confronted him about it," said White. "Perry even let deported criminals keep valid drivers licenses."
"Because of Perry's failure to secure the border, local police spend their time arresting illegal immigrants who commit crimes every day, as they did when I was Houston's mayor," said White.

The facts are absolutely damning. Here's what happened:

From the time Rick Perry took office until the time Rick Perry took office until October of 2006, he maintained a policy at the Texas Department of Public Safety that allowed sex offenders to be removed from the registry once they were deported. It wasn't until Bill White himself directed Rick Perry to change the policy that any policy was changed.

The Houston Chronicle: "Database changed to include deported illegal immigrants"

More than 2,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders, whose names were absent from a public statewide database because they were deported, have been restored to the Texas Department of Public Safety public Internet site after a Houston police officer's slaying a month ago.
Andy Kahan, director of the crime victim's office for Houston Mayor Bill White, said today he asked the Texas DPS to review its policy to not include deported offenders in the public database after an illegal immigrant, Juan Leonardo Quintero, was arrested Sept. 26 in the shooting death of Officer Rodney Johnson.
[...]
The decision puts 2,084 names of deported offenders back on the list that's accessible to the public, DPS spokeswoman Tela Mange said.

Yes -- that same Officer Johnson Rick Perry is lying about was killed by a sex offender who was deported -- then removed from the sex offender database and proceded to return to Texas across a border Rick Perry has failed to protect for ten years.

3 New Texas Polls Show GOP Leads in All Statewide Races

Karl-Thomas Musselman — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 14:02:56 GMT

After weeks of silence, three polls were released in the last few days. Here are the toplines.

AJP: (Oct 14-15, American Justice Partnership, 1200 Voters)
UT/TT: (Oct 12-18, UT/Texas Tribune, 797 Voters)
RAS: (Oct 21, Rasmussen, 500 Likely Voters)

Governor
+11 | Perry 48% White 37% Undecided 11% (AJP)
+10 | Perry 50% White 40% Glass 08% Shafto 02% (UT/TT)
+09 | Perry 51% White 42% Undecided 05% Other 02% (RAS)

Lt. Governor
+35 | Dewhurst 55% Chavez-Thompson 20% (AJP)
+13 | Dewhurst 51% Chavez-Thompson 38% Libertarian 09% Green 02% (UT/TT)

Attorney General
+35 | Abbott 58% Radnofsky 23% (AJP)
+20 | Abbott 55% Rodnofsky 35% Libertarian 11% (UT/TT)

Comptroller
+NA | Combs 51% Libertarian 11% Green 09% Undecided 29% (UT/TT)

Land Commissioner
+13 | Patterson 50% Uribe 37% Libertarian 12% (UT/TT)

Ag Commissioner
+13 | Staples 50% Gilbert 37% Libertarian 12% (UT/TT)

Railroad Commisioner
+16 | Porter 50% Weems 34% Libertarian 10% Green 05% (UT/TT)

I won't get into methodology other than to say AJP was essentially a lobby issue poll with horse-race questions tacked on, the UT/TT poll finally pushed leaners but is still a YouGov Internet Poll, and Rasmussen is, well, Rasmussen. For a state as big as Texas with a hot race, it's been entirely disappointing how little quality polling is done here. I don't say that because all the polls show Perry and GOP candidates ahead- they are, but I'm about 100% positive that next cycle, I'm going to have Burnt Orange Report partner with a non-partisan polling firm and help fix this.

Thoughts- I've never seen 3rd Party candidates poll this high in Texas. Up to 15% of the vote in the Railroad Commissioner race is potentially tied up between the Libertarian and Green party. The GOP sponsored Green Party appears to be well on its way to getting the 5% needed to get automatic "fuck with the Democrats" ballot access in 2012. This could be due to a lack of oxygen and awareness of downballot races. It's also an expression of a very angry electorate that without other information, is willing to vote against both the Republican & Democratic parties.

While White is closing the gap in the Governor's race, it's marginal- not to mention there are a week's worth of votes already cast. It's not a question of just winning all the undecideds, it's forcing some of Perry's voters to switch to White (or Libertarian Kathie Glass). There is some hope there as the UT/TT poll notes...

While 72 percent of White's voters support him "very strongly," only 53 percent of Perry's voters say the same. Glass has very strong support from 40 percent. All of Shafto's voters say they only "somewhat strongly" support her.

According to the UT/TT poll, the GOP has an +18 generic congressional ballot lead and a +15 generic state legislative ballot lead. Governor Perry's job approval is 45/37 compared to President Obama's job approval of 35/59 of which only 14% strongly approve and 53% strong disapprove. When 9 out of 10 voters who disapprove of Obama, stongly disapprove, and that makes up a majority of the electorate... that says it all.

Little surprise that Rick Perry has worked to nationalize the Governor's race. Now he just has to decide if he wants to run for President in 2012 or for an unprecedented 4th term as Governor in 2014... if he wins re-election eight days from now.

Texas' Budget Shortfall: $25 Billion

Phillip Martin — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 12:21:02 GMT

$25 billion.

Texas faces a budget crisis of truly daunting proportions, with lawmakers likely to cut sacrosanct programs such as education for the first time in memory and to lay off hundreds if not thousands of state workers and public university employees.
Texas' GOP leaders, their eyes on the Nov. 2 election, have played down the problem's size, even as the hole in the next two-year cycle has grown in recent weeks to as much as $24 billion to $25 billion. That's about 25 percent of current spending.
The gap is now proportionately larger than the deficit California recently closed with cuts and fee increases, its fourth dose of budget misery since September 2008.

The next legislative session is going to be an absolute disaster.

Read the full story at the Dallas Morning News: "Legislature likely to cut deep to meet possible $25 billion budget gap."

2010 Texas Gubernatorial Debate: Bill White, Kathie Glass, Deb Shafto

Phillip Martin — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 00:01:22 GMT

Find where you can watch the debates here -- or stream online and watch it live!

8:00pm - Back soon with wrap-up and final thoughts.

7:58pm - Bill White closing argument: "While Rick Perry and his friends can run the state over the last several years, during times when polls are open you can decide the direciton of this state. Get out the vote, get others to do so."

7:56pm - Shafto wants to construct the kind of world where we can care for each other, and what car you drive isn't as important as how close you are to your neighbor. Says many of our green values are human values.

7:54pm - Glass' closing argument: Says she will be a fighter, and she's heard the top two people spend $50 million to tell everyone why each other is wrong, and says they are both right. You can vote for Rick Perry on November 2, but the next morning he still won't respect you.

7:53pm - Missed that last lightning round question. I was shooting whiskey. Closing statement!

7:52pm - "Beer, wine, whiskey or green tea?" Shafto: Green Tea. Glass: wine. White: coffee.

7:51pm - Favorite philosopher? Glass: Ayn Rand. Shafto: Pass. White: St. Augustine. "Socrates had his moments."

7:50pm - How would you rate Barack Obama's performance as President? White: won't give running commentary, but will give him respect and call him President. Glass calls Obama, "the worst President ever." Glass says, "6.5-7" and is constrained by forces that aren't always obvious.

7:49pm - Lightning round! What law do you want to repeal? Shafto wants to end the death penalty. White wants to end unfunded mandates -- for example, the one that doesn't give local school districts setting school calendars. Glass: property tax.

7:47pm - Glass goes back to her answer on Medicaid, which is a shame. I wanted to hear more on Taj MaStadiums. She gave some answers, so did Shafto. Not gonna lie -- I'm losing a little steam.

7:46pm - Next question focuses on children's health care and how we can afford to provide more health coverage for Texans. I think. Kathie Glass just said "Taj MaStadiums" and I got a little distracted.

7:43pm - The next questions asks candidates to identify where they would collect $1 billion to stem the tide of the $23 billion budget shortfall. Shafto wants to tax the rich. White says that he would bring a more hands-on-style management to eliminate waste -- points to TxDot's $1billion accounting error. Glass would cut taxpayer services for non-citizens, or opt out of Medicaid.

7:37pm - Bill White answers the dropout question - "We ought to treat it as an emergency." Says he hasn't run into a single person who thought dropping out of school was a good decision. Calls for more flexible schools, to ensure that work is attending school -- hours on Saturdays and on weekends. Wants to make sure there are programs in place for early childhood education where students can go into the classroom -- says he would have signed the Pre-K bill that Perry vetoed. Says he would not lie about the dropout figures, which Perry has done -- and then Perry cut a program for summer school and after school tutoring that was proving to work. (The Texas Observer's Bob Moser wrote about that one in his feature on Bill White).

7:35pm - Dropout question -- how do the candidates plan to address the problem? Glass says to let the dropouts go, because sometimes people learn better out in the real world than inside a classroom. Shafto says we test people at Kindergarten and set students on paths to fail.

7:33pm - Bill white asked about the legalization of marijuana. White says no. Glass says not unless someone brought the bill to her. Shafto says yes, she'd legalize it.

7:29pm - Glass answers the question to raise taxes: "No, No, No, No!"

7:25pm - Next question is on school finance, and how to solve/address the issue with considering a state income tax and new tax system. Shafto is up first. She says she would consider it, but not good. White says any kind of proposal like that would be dead on arrival -- points out that 2006 plan led to gross inequities. White wants every school to have adequate funding, and says we have not had the balance yet.

7:24pm - White says he supports the death penalty, but we need to have clear processes for evaluating new evidence.

7:22pm - Shafto gets into the cost of executing someone and how it's bad. Let me just say this -- be glad I'm watching this for you.

7:20pm - Question #5: Gets into the death penalty, via the Cameron Todd Willingham execution case. Should capital punishment be continued in Texas, and if it should there be new safeguards to protect the execution of an innocent person? Glass is first up this time. She says she's in favor of the death penatly, but she's seen how it works and how there are some flaws in it and she would take all the time she needs to review everything and be fully confident that solid evidence and solid science was used before she went forward with an execution.

7:20pm - Shafto can't think of anything positive off-hand, says as a teacher she can't think of anything positive with the way he's handled the Teacher Retirement System or the State Board of Education. Can't think of anything positive.

7:18pm - Glass says she's heard that it's good Perry only keeps a seven-hour a work week, because if he kept a full work week the state would be even worse. Glass has all the most clever answers tonight, no question. Chides Perry for only talking and not acting.

7:17pm - Fourth question. Has Rick Perry done anything positive as Governor? (WTF?!) White says Perry has visited the military, when he represents all Texans and he respects the office of governor. But he goes back to the "lack of leadership and diirection in this state." Finishes with "We will never move our state forward with that kind of leadership. It's about theater not management" and returns to his greatest hits.

7:17pm - Rick Disco Chicken Perry.

7:16pm - Glass points out that the lottery may be a better bet than a 401k these days. Supremely charging, even if her positions are way out there. She says that if the Legislature passed a law to do gambling, she'd sign it, but that's not the way she would be going.

7:13pm - White goes to gambling question, points out that the governor doesn't make the law, that'd have to be a constitutional amendment. White says he's not going to go around promoting that law. White goes straight to Perry doubling state spending and increasing debt by nearly 2.5 times.

7:11pm - Third question is on the budget shortfall and where the candidates stand on gambling. Shafto is first. She does not support gambling, calls it "sleazy."

7:09pm - White talks about recent trip to Tyler, where people lost their jobs at the Goodyear plant -- the largest private employer in town. White points out that our unemployment is higher in neighboring states and almost double what it was when Perry took office. White pivots straight to Perry's ETF scandal -- saying how the folks in Tyler applied to Perry's office to get some of the funds, but none of them were big donors so they didn't get any money. BURRRN.

7:08pm - Shafto takes it on. Talks about investing in small businesses. her purple jacket is sublime. She shifts to clean energy incentives for small businesses.

7:06pm - Second question is about Texas' one million unemployed. Glass answers first: "I want to cut state spending in 50%." Glass hammerls Republicans for calling for a statewide property tax, says Republicans are "going to use this problem to institute taxes they wanted all along." Also wants to eliminate licensing laws, red tape barriers for businesses. Just hammering, hammering, hammering Republicans. "We're not in nearly as good a shape as we're being told by our government."

7:06pm - Deb Shafto answered, as well.

7:05pm - Glass, answering the same question, says she has a strongly worded letter she will give to Rick Perry the next time she confronts him. "We have to take these measures to get our fiscal house in order."

7:01pm - First question to Bill White is about children of illegal immigrants at Texas universities. (Really?!?! Not the $23 billion budget shortfall?). White: "It's in our best interests if all our citizens are as educated as can be." White immediately starts hitting Perry, chiding his 8-hours of work a week, saying that laws are not enforced when you have a slacker like Perry in charge.

7:00pm - Here we go! "Regrettably, incumbent Governor Rick Perry has declined to join us in this debate and for that we are all the poorer.

6:58pm Tonight is the 2010 Texas gubernatorial debate featuring Democrat candidate Bill White, Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass, and Green Party candidate Deb Shafto. The Chicken Party candidate, Rick Perry, could not make it here tonight because he had to sell some more taxpayer-funded deals to his donors.

I'll be live-blogging the debate all night. I'll also be making lots of Rick Chicken Perry digs, without shame, so leave a comment if there are any you want posted now or after the debate. As always, the newest updates will be atop the page.