Hillary Clinton and John Edwards hold steady but Barack Obama and Bill Richardson numbers shift dramatically in different directions.
Hillary Clinton is sitting at 41.5% even though the level of undecideds has dropped three points. Last month we had speculated that her ceiling could be the low 40’s and with this 1.4% gain, we could be proven right or wrong very soon. Last month 73% said they were definitely with Clinton, this month that number is down to 66%. While her numbers continue to climb, her strong support level is dropping.
After a 3-point slide the month before, Barack Obama has rallied up to a new high of 20%. While that is still half of Clinton’s support that is a climb well outside the margin of error. That is 5.1% increase in one month and his strong support level has sky rocketed to 41% (up 12 points from last month).
Obama had much stronger Latino support, going from 8% to 19% as well as stronger white support, going from 13% to 20%. While he has been almost unknown outside of the big cities, he had widespread regional improvement this month, gaining in 2/3 of the area codes.
On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson saw a dramatic decline. After a solid gain last month, Richardson as now at his lowest level since the poll began four months ago. Richardson is sitting at 5.7% with a 16-point drop in his strong support levels.
Edwards and Richardson are clearly focusing on winning early and I expect to see their numbers remain flat in Texas because of our very late March 5 primary.
The sample size for the July poll was 596 with a margin of error at plus or minus 4%.
“I’m sorry if you’re offended.” I have heard that repeatedly over a number of years in the sports world and politics, or anywhere else that someone said something ignorant, but can’t quite whole heartedly apologize for it.
With people like Terrell Owens, Matt Millen, and Ozzie Guillen dropping gay slurs, and then only apologizing if someone happened to be offended, the behavior continues to be commonplace. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is next in the long line of people to not understand that words hurt.
News has surfaced this week that while appearing on the Don Imus radio show in 2006, Governor Richardson decided to drop a derogatory Spanish slang term on his show. According to the Governor, the word “maricon” was simply “a playful exchange between me and Don Imus that was not intended to demean anybody, but if I offended anybody, I apologize.” He went on to state “the term means simply ‘gay’, not positive or negative.”
Unfortunately, his weak attempt at apology is not even remotely close to the truth. Numerous searches on the internet, which yield many Spanish language websites, use the word “maricon” interchangeably with the English word “faggot”. In fact, according to one website, the word means an even bigger fag than the usual fag.
While I question the timing of this issue being brought up (since the interview is over a year and a half old), I still can not believe that the Governor believes it is acceptable behavior on the radio. I also can not believe his apology appears to be slightly insincere. To have someone I actually began to respect, and even donated money to, use a word that is indescribably upsetting to a lot of people, breaks my heart. This term even goes beyond Don Imus’s own “nappy headed ho” slip up. Apologies can only do so much. I can only hope Governor Richardson might have a funeral for “maricon”, just as the NAACP had one recently for the “N word”. I don’t want my President thinking in the back of his mind that I am still just another queer, even as he attempts to hand me marriage rights and other civil issues we should already have.
Governor, it’s time to grow up if you want to lead the country.
Edwards Endorsers:
Kirk Watson
Trey Martinez Fisher
Garnet Coleman
Jim Dunnam
Joe Farias
Stephen Frost
Mark Homer
Paula Pierson
Craig Eiland
Obama Endorsers:
Mark Strama
Sylvester Turner
Juan Garcia
Hillary Endorsers:
Carlos Uresti
Abel Herrero
Armando Martinez
Richard Raymond
Veronica Gonzalez
Rene Oliveira
Aaron Pena
Chenta Quintanilla
Juan Escobar
Hubert Vo
Senfronia Thompson
Richardson Endorsers:
Rick Noriega
Pete Gallego
Paul Moreno
Last week I attended a town hall forum with the editor of Quorum Report, Harvey Kronberg, sponsored by my previous state representative and my current one. Truth to tell, I went mostly to see and hear them. I respect what Kronberg does, I just think there are a few of us New Media types -- such as Charles and Vince -- who do what he does better and without the annoying $300 subscription.
Let me first say that I left with a tremendously increased respect for Kronberg, who after 18 years of following the Lege is probably better connected than anyone. Better than Burka, better than Selby, better than Radcliffe. What I never really got from him before is the insights from all of that history. Most of you know I'm a history buff; "lessons/doomed to repeat" and all that.
In an evening filled with one cogent analysis after another -- at one point I saw even Rep. Cohen taking notes -- the one that kept my ears ringing a week later is the one in the headline. But I'll come back to it in a moment.
Clinton and Richardson seem to be the ones with the most to brag about this month. Clinton has seen a 6 point jump in the past month in statewide support bringing her to 40%. Richardson has moved solidly into the 2nd tier with 9%, which is only 4 points behind Edwards, and 6 behind Obama.
Clearly Clinton is close to her ceiling in Texas. 73% have said they are definite in their support for Clinton and not shopping other candidates. This reaffirms the speculation that Clinton is a dramatic and polarizing figure. Compare that to Obama where only 29% are definitely supporting the Senator from Illinois.
Obama’s soft support has to bode best for Edwards who has Texas infrastructure and money to play. However, people are still learning about Richardson and his bio and proximity to Texas could begin to chip away at Hillary’s huge Latino support the same way Obama cut out her overwhelming African American support.
The monthly debates will only hurt Hillary and help the other candidates, but it's clear that Hillary’s support will never dip below 35%. Remember the primary isn’t an all or nothing contest like the general election. Any candidate that gets over 10% of the vote will get delegates to the national convention, and right now that means Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and possibly Richardson could all walk away with some Denver Delegates.
Click here for the full results. Click here for analysis from IVR Polls.
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Bill Richardson has repeatedly described himself as the most moderate of all the Democratic presidential candidates:
He stood at the center of "Spin Alley" -- a room given over to candidates and their chosen mouthpieces for hours of post-debate "analysis." And Richardson was analyzing away.
"I came out as the most moderate candidate with the clearest position on Iraq," Richardson insisted as he took a slug from a bottle of water. "I'm a different kind of Democrat."
Richardson was working overtime -- hence the sweat -- to sell that message, a pitch he had struggled to make during the 90-minute debate, where he often looked uncomfortable on stage and failed to distinguish himself from the other "second-tier" candidates.
For Richardson, Spin Alley offered a second bite at the apple, a unique opportunity to change conventional wisdom before it hardened.
"I am not a rock star, but I've got a solid record," he said. "I have got serious experience. I get things done."
Richardson is a former congressman, an ambassador to the United Nations and Secretary of Energy under President Clinton. A staunch supporter of the Second Amendment, he said he believes he is the party's moderate candidate.
Moving from foreign policy Richardson struck a theme of being "practical, pragmatic, and patriotic." He struck that chord frequently and often. He noted numerous times that he was a pro-business moderate Democrat who was running in the center and would not be swayed. He said he will not be liberalized by Iowa or New Hampshire...
I had the opportunity to attend a majority Republican fundraiser, with some Democrats too, for New Mexico Governor and Democratic Presidential candidate Bill Richardson in Arlington Friday night. The minimum to get into this event was $500, so I have a good friend with the Mid-Cities Democrats to thank for getting me in, and I'm really glad that she did because I walk away highly impressed.
As mentioned above, this was a majority Republican fundraiser; I never really figured that out even though I was getting odd stares with my Mid-Cities Democrats badge and my donkey pin on my coat. What gave it away was first, the host actually said so, and second former congressman Barry Goldwater Jr. was in attendance. Shows you the bi-partisan appeal that Richardson has.
I was the first to step in front and get face time with Governor Richardson as he entered the marbled entrance of this gorgeous, gated, secured, and secluded home in North Arlington. A very tall man, generally handsome, very charismatic, fluent in Spanish, knows how to work a room like a real pro, very self-deprecating, and a genuinely nice fellow. He took a picture with me and signed two books without a grimace like most politicians do. He looked groggy having come back from North Korea and arriving in Santa Fe at 4am Friday morning, but outside of that he was very willing to do whatever was asked. Might have something to do with the minimum donations of $500 though.
