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BOR Polls

BOR POLL: Republican Primary Voters Support Right-Wing Anti-Government Perspective


Mon May 21, 2012 at 04:15 PM CDT

(ICYMI, BOR PAC and People Calling People conducted a survey of likely Republican primary voters. We defined "likely voter" to mean a registered voter who had voted in at least two of the last three Republican Primaries (2006, 2008, 2010). Calls were placed to a random subset of those voters May 15-16, 2012. Read the results of our electoral questions here.)

Rounding out our statewide Republican primary poll, BOR PAC asked Republican primary voters to rate the importance of a range of issue positions and organizations active in their party's primary process. All questions were phrased as follows:

"Now we are going to list some things that voters consider in choosing a candidate. After each one, if it's very important to you, press 1; quite important, press 2; fairly important, press 3; slightly important, press 4; not at all important, press 5.

The results make clear that Republican primary voters are more supportive of right-wing, extremist positions that threaten the very existence of government than they are anything that might lead to functional policy or sanity. But then, we already knew that.

Here are the results:

"The ability to compromise and get things done"
Very Important40%
Quite Important24%
Fairly Important18%
Slightly Important8%
Not At All Important9%
TOTAL (MOE 4.7%, 433 responses)100%
"Commitment to conservative principles"
Very Important71%
Quite Important16%
Fairly Important7%
Slightly Important1%
Not At All Important4%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 423 responses)100%

Want to understand why Republicans keep sending obstructionist Congressmen and Legislators to our national and state capitol? Look no further than these two questions, which demonstrate how Republicans feel more strongly about supporting candidates who will stick with their conservative principles rather than compromise to get things done. This is why the Republican Party keeps bringing the country to the brink of shutting down the government, refusing to raise the debt ceiling, and basically refusing to govern in a responsible manner.

"Closing unfair corporate tax loopholes"
Very Important45%
Quite Important23%
Fairly Important18%
Slightly Important7%
Not At All Important6%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 420 responses)100%
"Keeping business taxes low"
Very Important65%
Quite Important21%
Fairly Important9%
Slightly Important3%
Not At All Important2%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 413 responses)100%

When push comes to shove, Republicans care more about the abstract concept of "keeping business taxes low" than making sure that no one is cheating the system through unfair tax loopholes. The Republican base is clearly drunk on the anti-tax Kool Aid, and apparently even if corporations are getting away without paying their fair share, that's no problem as long as taxes stay low.

Realistically though, given the Republican majority in the Legislature, one can see how this is going to make it difficult on Speaker Straus -- should he survive his primary -- to get enough members of the Republican caucus to go along with efforts to close tax loopholes to do things like fund education and keep even a semblance of the social safety net. Answers like this -- and the survey results above -- demonstrate how difficult it is for Republican legislators to do anything remotely sensible in the house and not risk getting tossed out by a salivating GOP base hungry for red meat, no matter the cost to civilization. Speaking of anti-civilization....

"Endorsement of Texans for Lawsuit Reform"
Very Important48%
Quite Important27%
Fairly Important16%
Slightly Important4%
Not At All Important6%
TOTAL (MOE 4.9%, 405 responses)100%
"Endorsement of Texans for Fiscal Responsibility"
Very Important63%
Quite Important20%
Fairly Important9%
Slightly Important4%
Not At All Important5%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 410 responses)100%

While both TLR and TFR (aka Empower Texans, aka Michael Quinn Sullivan) are Republican organizations, TLR is absolutely the more moderate of the two, in the sense that they're not fully against civilization in all of its forms. These results show that Republican primary voters are consistently more supportive of the extremist, right-wing factions of their party, over anything that tiptoes towards good government.

Democrats and Independents, you wonder why Republicans keep electing crazy right-wingers bent on destroying the state and the nation, who won't stop until the Pink Dome is a smoldering ash heap? These polling results show you exactly why.

But hey, what do you expect from a Republican electorate in which 81% don't know for sure that the President was born in the United States?

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to the Burnt Orange Polling Fund today!

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

BOR POLL: 60% of Texas Republicans Think President Not Born in US; 21% "Not Sure"


Mon May 21, 2012 at 00:15 PM CDT

As part of our year-long statewide polling series, BOR PAC and People Calling People conducted a survey of likely Republican primary voters. We defined "likely voter" to mean a registered voter who had voted in at least two of the last three Republican Primaries (2006, 2008, 2010). Calls were placed to a random subset of those voters May 15-16, 2012. Read the results of our electoral questions here.

At the end of the poll, we surveyed Republican primary voters on their attitudes towards President Barack Obama's country of origin. Here are the results:

"Do you believe that President Barack Obama was born in the United States?"
Not Sure21%
TOTAL (MOE 4.9%, 405 Responses)100%

That's right, 60% of Republican primary voters believe that the President was not born in the United States. Another 21% "aren't sure," which is the response you give if you don't think the President was born in the US but don't want to sound like a totally racist cracker on an IVR poll. Only 18% of Republican primary voters know that the President was indeed born in the United States, because like it or not, Hawaii is part of our country.

Now, to be fair, the Republican primary electorate skews old: 73% of respondents were age 60 or over. Hawaii was only admitted to the union in 1959, so evidently for Texas Republican primary voters, the State of Hawaii is still a new-fangled notion worthy of scrutiny, as is the President born there. We didn't survey whether or not Republicans believe that John McCain was born in the United States -- he wasn't, he was born in the Panama Canal Zone -- because Republicans don't doubt the American heritage of White candidates, now do they? However, if your Republican relatives ascribe to the Birther mentality, you can always buy them a mug reminding them that Barack Obama was indeed made in the USA, with a birth certificate to prove it.

We'll have more results from our Republican primary poll later today.

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to the Burnt Orange Polling Fund today!

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BOR POLL: Republicans Satisfied with Romney, Split on Senate and Railroad Race


Mon May 21, 2012 at 10:35 AM CDT

(Attorney General Greg Abbott has signaled to donors that he will run for governor in 2014, setting up a potential challenge to Rick Perry. We polled that hypothetical match-up back in May 2012.   - promoted by Katherine Haenschen)

As part of our year-long statewide polling series, BOR PAC and People Calling People conducted a survey of likely Republican primary voters to determine their sentiments on Mitt Romney's de facto Republican nomination, the Republican primary races for US Senate and Railroad Commissioner, and a hypothetical 2014 Republican primary match-up for Governor. We defined "likely voter" to mean a registered voter who had voted in at least two of the last three Republican Primaries (2006, 2008, 2010). Calls were placed to a random subset of those voters May 15-16, 2012.

Here are the results.

"In the Republican primary for US Senate, the candidates are Glenn Addison, Joe Agris, Kurt Cleaver, Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, Ben Gambini, Craig James, Tom Leppert, and Lela Pittinger. Who do you plan to vote for in the Republican primary for US Senate?"
David Dewhurst43%
Ted Cruz30%
Tom Leppert14%
Craig James5%
Lela Pittinger4%
Glenn Addison2%
Kurt Cleaver1%
Joe Agris0%
Ben Gambini0%
TOTAL (MOE 4.2%, 557 responses)100%

The poll confirms what political chatterers had surmised for months: Dewhurst and Cruz look poised to head to a late-July run-off for the Senate seat being vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison. That has to give Cruz hope that he can prevail in a low-turnout hyper-partisan electorate, since the solicitor general has enjoyed more Tea Party and activist support than Dewhurst, whose main constituency seems to be Rick Perry's corporate sugar daddies. A Senate run-off pitting Cruz' grassroots hordes vs. Dewhurst's fat cats has to give serious pause to any moderate Republicans who may be headed to a run-off in down-ballot races, and could play a role in the inevitable run-offs in various Republican Congressional primaries (namely CD-14, CD-25, and CD-36). The only real question is if Dewhurst can spend his way to avoid a run-off, but given the margin he needs to make up to clear 50%, it looks unlikely.

Notably, the results also look a lot like the UT/TT poll released today. Dewhurst is in the low 40's and looks likely to go into a run-off with Cruz. That "internal Dewhurst campaign memo" circulated last week and leaked to Politico claiming that Leppert had pushed past Cruz into second place does indeed appear to be smoke and mirrors.

"In the primary for a full term on the Texas Railroad Commission, the candidates are Becky Berger, Beryl Burgess, Warren Chisum, Joe Cotten, Christi Craddick, and Roland Sledge. Who do you plan to vote for in the Republican primary for Texas Railroad Commissioner?"
Christi Craddick25%
Warren Chisum24%
Roland Sledge5%
Becky Berger4%
Joe Cotten3%
Beryl Burgess3%
TOTAL (MOE 4.5%, 479 responses)100%

In the race to fill the seat vacated by Michael Williams, it's clear that no candidate has managed to break through the crowded field, despite their ridiculous TV ads and escalating anti-EPA rhetoric. Over one third of the electorate is undecided, while Chisum and Craddick are the leaders here, the latter doing well likely based on sheer last-name ID alone. Unfortunately for Roland Sledge, despite his shocking TV ad in which Sledge vows not to pee on an electric fence, he's not making a splash with voters. The Republican electorate isn't trickling down from the undecided column into Sledge's camp. Unless his campaign is willing to leak any more-favorable internal polling, it's unlikely that on May 29th anyone will say to Sledge, "urine a run-off."

"In the 2014 Republican primary for Governor, if Attorney General Greg Abbott decided to challenge Governor Rick Perry, who would you support? "
Rick Perry42%
Greg Abbott35%
Someone Else7%
Not Sure16%
TOTAL (MOE 4.6%, 462 responses)100%

It's clear that Abbott is quietly angling to be the next Governor of Texas, what with his sue-the-Feds this and his down-with-women's-rights that. However, Governor Perry is claiming that he plans to run for re-election, either to prevent being the lamest duck next session or because he thinks it will better position him for another failed Presidential bid in 2016. Regardless, the Republican primary voters we polled have Abbott within 10% of Perry in this hypothetical match-up, which bodes well for the hard-charging Attorney General should he tilt at the incumbent Governor.

"How satisfied are you with Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee?"
Very Satisfied35%
Very Dissatisfied8%
TOTAL (MOE 3.7%, 718 responses)100%

We also asked Republican primary voters how they felt about presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. Only two thirds of Republicans are satisfied with the flip-flopping Massachusetts governor, whose healthcare plan was part of the foundation of Obamacare. One third of Republicans surveyed seem unwilling to go along with Romney, and 17% self-report as Dissatisfied or Very Dissatisfied. One wonders about the remaining third of the Republican primary electorate -- are they Ron Paul supporters? Do they want a more conservative candidate? Would a third-party conservative candidate like Rick Santorum or a legitimate Tea Partier like Debra Medina appeal to the 33% of Republican primary voters who are not satisfied with Romney? Most importantly, will they be too dismayed about their Presidential pick that they'll stay home this November?

We'll have more results later today.

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to the Burnt Orange Polling Fund today!

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New Burnt Orange Report Poll

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 03:36 PM CST

We're closing out our old Burnt Orange Report poll as the early vote continues in the Houston Mayoral Runoff between Annise Parker and Gene Locke. It's pretty clear our readers will stand with our continuing endorsement of Annise Parker as they have voted 89% to 11% for Parker over Locke.

So how about a new poll on the new primary candidates for governor?

Among the following candidates, who you vote for in the Democratic primary for Governor?

Felix Alvarado
Kinky Friedman  
Farouk Shami    
Bill White

Click here to cast your vote!

Edit: As was pointed out in the comments, I forget to add Private Investigator Bill Dear to the poll who was the first Democrat to file for Governor yesterday. I can't update the poll without overwriting it, so if you want to cast a vote for Bill Dear, make it a write-in in the comments.

Edit 2: As pointed out by Kuff, I also missed Dr. Alma Aguado, a San Antonio physician, who switched from the U.S. Senate race to the race for governor. If you want to vote for her, leave a comment, but I doubt anyone will.

Discuss :: (8 Comments)

Burnt Orange Readers Adept at Predicting Kay Bailey Hutchison

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Nov 17, 2009 at 04:05 PM CST

It's time for a new Burnt Orange Report poll, which means the close of our last one in which BOR readers proved themselves seers in divining the intent of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

When will Sen. Hutchison resign to run for Governor?

* Never, & she loses to Perry - 63 votes (57.8%)
* Only after she defeats Perry - 30 votes (27.52%)
* December - 9 votes (8.26%)
* January  - 4 votes (3.67%)
* October  - 2 votes (1.83%)
* February - 1 votes (0.92%)
* November - 0 votes (0%)

Total votes: 109

Only 2 voters out of 109 thought that KBH would have resigned from office by now, leaving over 98% of voters correct so far! And given Hutchison's statement that she won't consider resigning until after the March primary, I'd argue that the 85% of BOR voters who chose one of the top two leading options are both still correct.

>> New BOR Poll

Who do you support in the Houston Mayoral run-off? Vote here. Burnt Orange Report will reconsider the runoff field and issue an endorsement so we appreciate getting a quick read of where our readers stand.

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New Burnt Orange Report Poll

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 08:48 PM CDT

OK, so we were a little slacking in getting a new poll up after the city council elections. Sorry! I agree that it wasn't very interesting after the election to learn about which method people planned to vote by (which is early in case you couldn't have guessed).

Here's the new poll.

Should Rick Perry Call a Special Session to Deal with Sunset Safety Net?

Go vote here!

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

New BOR Poll & Previous Poll Results

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Thu Mar 19, 2009 at 10:00 AM CDT

So I've been bouncing around ideas to the staff on when we should go ahead and issue this site's endorsements for the May municipal elections. Since we haven't been able to decide that, I figured that I could just go ahead and ask our readers since in the end, it's you who we are responsible to.

So go ahead and cast your vote for which timeframe you feel you're ready to see us issue our endorsement statements.

When should BOR release our municipal endorsements?

March 20th-30th
April 1st-10th
April 10th-20th
April 20th-27th
April 27th (Start of Early Vote)
May 9th (Election Day)

That also means that our previous poll is closed, asking about our readers thoughts on what type of electoral system they preferred to see for the City of Austin elections. Here are those results.

Which model would you tend to support for Austin city council elections?

* At-Large + Single Member Districts - 69 votes (55.65%)
* All Single Member Districts - 33 votes (26.61%)
* All At-Large System - 22 votes (17.74%>

A couple years ago, I don't think these results would have been the same if we asked this question. A solid majority support a hybrid election system and over 80% favor changing the current all at-large system. Given that our voting base probably includes more insiders, campaign people, and other people that would determine if there is the political will to put this issue before voters again, it appears that there is now the political support to do so.  

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

A Follow Up about Burnt Orange Report Polls

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 03:34 AM CST

There was lots of interesting discussion on twitter and in the comments of this post about the rather obvious poll stuffing by both Place 1 campaigns over the last few days. That discussion has also spread to Harold Cook's Letters from Texas where he humorously offers possibly the best take on the situation.

So my poll, identical to BOR's, is on top of the right hand sidebar. Bend it 'til it breaks. Knock yourself out. Let 'er rip, tater chip. The one with the most votes by Friday afternoon may or may not win the race, but they'll win the "my supporters can figure out how to vote more than your supporters in a meaningless blog poll" contest. Make the meaningless mean something.

That's pretty much what the poll we had on Burnt Orange Report has been reduced to. Let me take a brief moment to walk through some slight differences in how we approach our polls here.

First off, by no means are our online polls scientific nor have we argued that they were. The ones you find on our site are meant to get the pulse of the BOR Community, the regular readers and activists who take the time to bother to register as users here so that they can contribute to the discussion in our comments and in adding their own posts. Given that there are close to 5000 registered users on our site and that most polls are lucky to gather a couple hundred votes that's about 5% of the userbase weighing in.

Often times we are a bit adrift for what to run polls on, but they are useful as a tool for the staff to see where the readership is various races. It helps to get a quick check of whether our own thinking is in line or out of line with that of our readership which is useful in directing some of our content decisions. For instance, a poll last fall asking when our users planned to vote showed that indeed, our readers are a bunch of crazy vote-a-matrons. A recent one about the Austin Mayor's race confirmed our feelings that our readership is largely for Lee Leffingwell.

There are only a couple reasons that sites like ours use polls.

  1. To get a read of the readership. Closed registered voting helps protect this to a degree.

  2. To generate user accounts & community. Registered users are more inclined to comment and author new content, which increases community and pageviews.

  3. To list build. We could use 3rd party polling services to run controversial polls in order to capture email addresses.

  4. To drive new traffic. Like Harold Cook's approach, set up the poll in order to specifically draw out poll stuffing to drive pageviews (and/or ad revenue).

Bunrnt Orange Report's site polls are centered primarily around purpose #1 with a very auxiliary benefit of #2-4. We should probably think about doing some in the future that are geared toward the other goals but that's a discussion for the next generation of BOR which I am now actively working on behind the scenes here.

So on that note, we were truly interested last week to get a sense of what the exit of Rick Cofer did to the Place 1 race. I wish we had run one prior to his departure so we could have gotten a sense of where his active supporters went to (and that might be the poll I replace the current one with). In any case, both us, and I think the general readership would have been interested in this.

Most polls inspire a certain number of people who are regular readers to finally create a user account and vote. That's fine, expected, and doesn't alter the polls to any large extent.

But now we have no idea because first someone sent a facebook message to 350 Perla Cavazos supporters in her group urging them to vote in the poll and then some subset of Chris Riley supporters got an email pointing them to the poll to vote as a response to Perla's lead in it.

On Friday and Saturday, BOR reported the highest percentage of new registered users as compared to daily site traffic... EVER. Each day, 1.5% of all visitors created user accounts which is a lot when the average is about a tenth of that. About 100 new user accounts since the poll went up when normal traffic would have generated less than 10.

Now, to be fair, I recognize a number of the emails and people. This isn't fake email address vote stuffing like the Watts campaign used on the Democracy for Texas U.S. Senate endorsement poll in 2007. I recognize a number of the people and actually believe that a decent portion of them are aware of Burnt Orange Report and might even be semi-regular readers who hadn't registered before. If those 100 users start getting involved and active in our comments or in offering up new content in writing Journals of their own, awesome! I hope that happens.

But it still doesn't change the fact that it's now altered any ability for our regular readers or the staff to glean anything from the poll (as well as altering the short term 'electorate' so that we can't just re-run the poll). That sucks and I'm aware that there is nothing that prevented this from happening and to a certain degree, it's a sign that we've effectively engaged and made campaigns aware of this space.

I recognize that is a double edged sword and I can't expect the "usual" to simply keep occurring if I keep writing about technology use in campaigns which is intended to actively encourage new behavior. That's a failure that could only be prevented by altering the poll process somehow, like having a couple day waiting period for new users to vote in a poll, which while technically possibly, would require a change in the Soapblox base code. And right now, I'm more concerned with working to keep the site up, working, and running with Soapblox until we migrate to a new server so the site stops going down randomly.

So I guess that's all I have to say on the matter. Other than to tell y'all to go vote in Harold's poll now.

P.S. I might not need a poll for this but I'll ask. I'm looking to get a new USB drive since they are so cheap on Amazon and the one I have right now is just 250MB. Should I get this SanDisk 16GB or this Kingston 8GB one?

Discuss :: (7 Comments)

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