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BOR PAC polls

BOR POLL: Republican Primary Voters Support Right-Wing Anti-Government Perspective


Mon May 21, 2012 at 04:15 PM CDT

(ICYMI, BOR PAC and People Calling People conducted a survey of likely Republican primary voters. We defined "likely voter" to mean a registered voter who had voted in at least two of the last three Republican Primaries (2006, 2008, 2010). Calls were placed to a random subset of those voters May 15-16, 2012. Read the results of our electoral questions here.)

Rounding out our statewide Republican primary poll, BOR PAC asked Republican primary voters to rate the importance of a range of issue positions and organizations active in their party's primary process. All questions were phrased as follows:

"Now we are going to list some things that voters consider in choosing a candidate. After each one, if it's very important to you, press 1; quite important, press 2; fairly important, press 3; slightly important, press 4; not at all important, press 5.

The results make clear that Republican primary voters are more supportive of right-wing, extremist positions that threaten the very existence of government than they are anything that might lead to functional policy or sanity. But then, we already knew that.

Here are the results:

"The ability to compromise and get things done"
Very Important40%
Quite Important24%
Fairly Important18%
Slightly Important8%
Not At All Important9%
TOTAL (MOE 4.7%, 433 responses)100%
"Commitment to conservative principles"
Very Important71%
Quite Important16%
Fairly Important7%
Slightly Important1%
Not At All Important4%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 423 responses)100%

Want to understand why Republicans keep sending obstructionist Congressmen and Legislators to our national and state capitol? Look no further than these two questions, which demonstrate how Republicans feel more strongly about supporting candidates who will stick with their conservative principles rather than compromise to get things done. This is why the Republican Party keeps bringing the country to the brink of shutting down the government, refusing to raise the debt ceiling, and basically refusing to govern in a responsible manner.

"Closing unfair corporate tax loopholes"
Very Important45%
Quite Important23%
Fairly Important18%
Slightly Important7%
Not At All Important6%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 420 responses)100%
"Keeping business taxes low"
Very Important65%
Quite Important21%
Fairly Important9%
Slightly Important3%
Not At All Important2%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 413 responses)100%

When push comes to shove, Republicans care more about the abstract concept of "keeping business taxes low" than making sure that no one is cheating the system through unfair tax loopholes. The Republican base is clearly drunk on the anti-tax Kool Aid, and apparently even if corporations are getting away without paying their fair share, that's no problem as long as taxes stay low.

Realistically though, given the Republican majority in the Legislature, one can see how this is going to make it difficult on Speaker Straus -- should he survive his primary -- to get enough members of the Republican caucus to go along with efforts to close tax loopholes to do things like fund education and keep even a semblance of the social safety net. Answers like this -- and the survey results above -- demonstrate how difficult it is for Republican legislators to do anything remotely sensible in the house and not risk getting tossed out by a salivating GOP base hungry for red meat, no matter the cost to civilization. Speaking of anti-civilization....

"Endorsement of Texans for Lawsuit Reform"
Very Important48%
Quite Important27%
Fairly Important16%
Slightly Important4%
Not At All Important6%
TOTAL (MOE 4.9%, 405 responses)100%
"Endorsement of Texans for Fiscal Responsibility"
Very Important63%
Quite Important20%
Fairly Important9%
Slightly Important4%
Not At All Important5%
TOTAL (MOE 4.8%, 410 responses)100%

While both TLR and TFR (aka Empower Texans, aka Michael Quinn Sullivan) are Republican organizations, TLR is absolutely the more moderate of the two, in the sense that they're not fully against civilization in all of its forms. These results show that Republican primary voters are consistently more supportive of the extremist, right-wing factions of their party, over anything that tiptoes towards good government.

Democrats and Independents, you wonder why Republicans keep electing crazy right-wingers bent on destroying the state and the nation, who won't stop until the Pink Dome is a smoldering ash heap? These polling results show you exactly why.

But hey, what do you expect from a Republican electorate in which 81% don't know for sure that the President was born in the United States?

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to the Burnt Orange Polling Fund today!

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

BOR POLL: 60% of Texas Republicans Think President Not Born in US; 21% "Not Sure"


Mon May 21, 2012 at 00:15 PM CDT

As part of our year-long statewide polling series, BOR PAC and People Calling People conducted a survey of likely Republican primary voters. We defined "likely voter" to mean a registered voter who had voted in at least two of the last three Republican Primaries (2006, 2008, 2010). Calls were placed to a random subset of those voters May 15-16, 2012. Read the results of our electoral questions here.

At the end of the poll, we surveyed Republican primary voters on their attitudes towards President Barack Obama's country of origin. Here are the results:

"Do you believe that President Barack Obama was born in the United States?"
Not Sure21%
TOTAL (MOE 4.9%, 405 Responses)100%

That's right, 60% of Republican primary voters believe that the President was not born in the United States. Another 21% "aren't sure," which is the response you give if you don't think the President was born in the US but don't want to sound like a totally racist cracker on an IVR poll. Only 18% of Republican primary voters know that the President was indeed born in the United States, because like it or not, Hawaii is part of our country.

Now, to be fair, the Republican primary electorate skews old: 73% of respondents were age 60 or over. Hawaii was only admitted to the union in 1959, so evidently for Texas Republican primary voters, the State of Hawaii is still a new-fangled notion worthy of scrutiny, as is the President born there. We didn't survey whether or not Republicans believe that John McCain was born in the United States -- he wasn't, he was born in the Panama Canal Zone -- because Republicans don't doubt the American heritage of White candidates, now do they? However, if your Republican relatives ascribe to the Birther mentality, you can always buy them a mug reminding them that Barack Obama was indeed made in the USA, with a birth certificate to prove it.

We'll have more results from our Republican primary poll later today.

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to the Burnt Orange Polling Fund today!

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BOR POLL: Republicans Satisfied with Romney, Split on Senate and Railroad Race


Mon May 21, 2012 at 10:35 AM CDT

(Attorney General Greg Abbott has signaled to donors that he will run for governor in 2014, setting up a potential challenge to Rick Perry. We polled that hypothetical match-up back in May 2012.   - promoted by Katherine Haenschen)

As part of our year-long statewide polling series, BOR PAC and People Calling People conducted a survey of likely Republican primary voters to determine their sentiments on Mitt Romney's de facto Republican nomination, the Republican primary races for US Senate and Railroad Commissioner, and a hypothetical 2014 Republican primary match-up for Governor. We defined "likely voter" to mean a registered voter who had voted in at least two of the last three Republican Primaries (2006, 2008, 2010). Calls were placed to a random subset of those voters May 15-16, 2012.

Here are the results.

"In the Republican primary for US Senate, the candidates are Glenn Addison, Joe Agris, Kurt Cleaver, Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, Ben Gambini, Craig James, Tom Leppert, and Lela Pittinger. Who do you plan to vote for in the Republican primary for US Senate?"
David Dewhurst43%
Ted Cruz30%
Tom Leppert14%
Craig James5%
Lela Pittinger4%
Glenn Addison2%
Kurt Cleaver1%
Joe Agris0%
Ben Gambini0%
TOTAL (MOE 4.2%, 557 responses)100%

The poll confirms what political chatterers had surmised for months: Dewhurst and Cruz look poised to head to a late-July run-off for the Senate seat being vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison. That has to give Cruz hope that he can prevail in a low-turnout hyper-partisan electorate, since the solicitor general has enjoyed more Tea Party and activist support than Dewhurst, whose main constituency seems to be Rick Perry's corporate sugar daddies. A Senate run-off pitting Cruz' grassroots hordes vs. Dewhurst's fat cats has to give serious pause to any moderate Republicans who may be headed to a run-off in down-ballot races, and could play a role in the inevitable run-offs in various Republican Congressional primaries (namely CD-14, CD-25, and CD-36). The only real question is if Dewhurst can spend his way to avoid a run-off, but given the margin he needs to make up to clear 50%, it looks unlikely.

Notably, the results also look a lot like the UT/TT poll released today. Dewhurst is in the low 40's and looks likely to go into a run-off with Cruz. That "internal Dewhurst campaign memo" circulated last week and leaked to Politico claiming that Leppert had pushed past Cruz into second place does indeed appear to be smoke and mirrors.

"In the primary for a full term on the Texas Railroad Commission, the candidates are Becky Berger, Beryl Burgess, Warren Chisum, Joe Cotten, Christi Craddick, and Roland Sledge. Who do you plan to vote for in the Republican primary for Texas Railroad Commissioner?"
Christi Craddick25%
Warren Chisum24%
Roland Sledge5%
Becky Berger4%
Joe Cotten3%
Beryl Burgess3%
TOTAL (MOE 4.5%, 479 responses)100%

In the race to fill the seat vacated by Michael Williams, it's clear that no candidate has managed to break through the crowded field, despite their ridiculous TV ads and escalating anti-EPA rhetoric. Over one third of the electorate is undecided, while Chisum and Craddick are the leaders here, the latter doing well likely based on sheer last-name ID alone. Unfortunately for Roland Sledge, despite his shocking TV ad in which Sledge vows not to pee on an electric fence, he's not making a splash with voters. The Republican electorate isn't trickling down from the undecided column into Sledge's camp. Unless his campaign is willing to leak any more-favorable internal polling, it's unlikely that on May 29th anyone will say to Sledge, "urine a run-off."

"In the 2014 Republican primary for Governor, if Attorney General Greg Abbott decided to challenge Governor Rick Perry, who would you support? "
Rick Perry42%
Greg Abbott35%
Someone Else7%
Not Sure16%
TOTAL (MOE 4.6%, 462 responses)100%

It's clear that Abbott is quietly angling to be the next Governor of Texas, what with his sue-the-Feds this and his down-with-women's-rights that. However, Governor Perry is claiming that he plans to run for re-election, either to prevent being the lamest duck next session or because he thinks it will better position him for another failed Presidential bid in 2016. Regardless, the Republican primary voters we polled have Abbott within 10% of Perry in this hypothetical match-up, which bodes well for the hard-charging Attorney General should he tilt at the incumbent Governor.

"How satisfied are you with Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee?"
Very Satisfied35%
Very Dissatisfied8%
TOTAL (MOE 3.7%, 718 responses)100%

We also asked Republican primary voters how they felt about presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. Only two thirds of Republicans are satisfied with the flip-flopping Massachusetts governor, whose healthcare plan was part of the foundation of Obamacare. One third of Republicans surveyed seem unwilling to go along with Romney, and 17% self-report as Dissatisfied or Very Dissatisfied. One wonders about the remaining third of the Republican primary electorate -- are they Ron Paul supporters? Do they want a more conservative candidate? Would a third-party conservative candidate like Rick Santorum or a legitimate Tea Partier like Debra Medina appeal to the 33% of Republican primary voters who are not satisfied with Romney? Most importantly, will they be too dismayed about their Presidential pick that they'll stay home this November?

We'll have more results later today.

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to the Burnt Orange Polling Fund today!

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Poll Shows Mayor Lee Leffingwell With Near-20 Point Lead Over Brigid Shea


Wed Apr 25, 2012 at 09:46 AM CDT

(For those looking for today's poll released by BOR PAC on the Austin Mayoral race, here it is again. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)

Burnt Orange Report PAC and Capital Area Asian American Democrats conducted a poll last week of likely voters in this May's municipal elections. The poll was an IVR poll of voters who had cast a ballot in either 3 of the last 3 city elections or 2 of the last 3 city elections. Results are below. The percentages are not weighted.

Austin Mayoral Election
Total Raw # Female Male 3/3C 2/3C
Leffingwell 45.4% 179 48.5% 41.1% 47.8% 42.5%
Shea 26.9% 106 28.1% 25.2% 27.6% 24.8%
Dafoe 13.7% 54 10.0% 19.0% 12.5% 16.3%
Undecided 14.0% 55 13.4% 14.7% 12.1% 16.3%
TOTAL 100.0% 394 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Leffingwell leads among 3/3 and 2/3 voters, he leads among women, and he leads among men. It is not clear how Shea spins these results to her advantage, given that she's almost 20 points down overall. If every undecided voter in this poll broke for her, she would still trail Leffingwell. Traditionally, undecideds break in proportion to the decided voters, so if that were the case here Leffingwell would easily top 50% while Shea would struggle to surpass 30%.

In general, however, the electorate looks fairly decided. Early voting begins next week, and given the number of forums in this city it's possible that every voter has already seen the candidates in person several times. (Just kidding. Sort of.) The barrage of TV and mail have yet to arrive, but again Leffingwell enjoyed such an overwhelming fundraising advantage over Shea that it is not clear how she marshals the resources to persuade voters to support her. There's no clear demographic here that seems to be breaking her way, and there are few undecided voters in the poll. Additionally, Leffingwell has won the lion's share of the endorsements in the race, as a broad range of organizations have chosen to throw their weight behind re-electing the Mayor. Leffingwell has received 21 endorsements to Shea's 8 and Dafoe's 1.

The poll also surveyed which local news source was most trusted by voters on city issues: the Austin American-Statesman, Austin Chronicle, or Austin Business Journal. The results are below, along with which candidate each news source's readers prefer.

Most Trusted News Source of Austin Voters
Total Raw # Leffingwell Shea Dafoe Undecided
Statesman 55.1% 172 55.8% 23.8% 11.0% 9.3%
Chronicle 28.8% 90 44.4% 38.9% 8.9% 7.8%
Biz Journal 16.0% 50 34.0% 16.0% 32.0% 18.0%

A few key take-aways here: readers most trust the Statesman, followed by The Austin Chronicle with Austin Business Journal bringing up the rear. Again, Leffingwell leads in all categories, though his margin among Chronicle readers is narrower than that of the Statesman. However, the poll suggests that the readership of the publication clearly favors Leffingwell and not Shea, despite the increasingly manifest viewpoints of the publisher.

The support for Dafoe is heavily male and strongly favors the Austin Business Journal, which suggests that a certain segment of Republican voters are choosing him as their "protest vote" over the two self-identified Democratic candidates, Leffingwell and Shea. Dafoe rings up 13.7% overall in the poll, and outperforms that percentage with men and people who most trust the ABJ. Whether Dafoe will do that well on May 12th remains to be seen. He may be the beneficiary of voters turning out for the various challengers in Places 2, 5, and 6.

Overall, the poll is positive news for Leffingwell -- he has a large lead over his main challenger, who is struggling to get to 30%. However, it's incumbent on Leffingwell's supporter to get themselves, their friends, and their colleagues out to the polls to make sure the Mayor wins handily on May 12th. Early voting begins Monday, April 30.  

Discuss :: (5 Comments)

BOR POLL: Texans Deeply Divided on Rick Perry, Direction of Texas, Issues Facing State


Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 04:33 PM CDT

Today, Burnt Orange Report PAC (aka BOR PAC) is excited to bring you the results of our first statewide poll of Texas voters, and launch our series of six polls that we've contracted to run this year. We have partnered with People Calling People and VoterHistory.com to conduct these polls. The poll was paid for by BOR PAC, the arm of Burnt Orange Report that will be funding political expenditures.

Before we tell you the results, we have a few notes on our universe, and our results:

  • This is a poll of Likely Voters. Our Likely Voter screen skewed the universe towards an older, whiter, more Republican electorate than the registered voter population -- and general population -- of Texas as a whole. Additionally, because this was a poll of land-line phones, our respondents skewed even older and whiter than the likely voter screen.
  • Partisanship was determined by respondents' self-identification as more likely to vote for Democrats or Republicans. Those that chose "otherwise" are not included in the partisanship cross-tab, but are included in the "all."
  • There is no weighting of these results; however, weighting for sex or party ID would have only minimally impacted the results due to the sample size.
  • In our full results, posted below the jump, we have cross-tabbed each answer by age (under 60, 60 and up), sex, and party. We initially looked at sex vs. party, but found that a) the margin of error was too high to make the results meaningful, and b) there wasn't a huge degree of divergence between men and women of the same party identification.

Overall, the results demonstrate sharp polarization in Texas between Democrats and Republicans in terms of their approval of Perry and opinion of the major issues facing our state. On nearly every issue, Democrats and Republicans disagree. However, what's most interesting is how out-of-touch Republicans are from the majority opinion of Texans.

Other key take-aways:

  • Texans are split on whether or not Texas is moving in the right direction. Republicans say yes and Democrats say no, by almost the identical percentages.
  • While Texans as a whole disapprove of the job Perry is doing, Republicans approve of Rick Perry by a 2-1 margin.
  • On the whole, Texans disapprove of the mandatory sonogram law, and of potential laws that would allow employers to deny employees insurance coverage of birth control.
  • 26% of Republicans say they are willing to raise taxes to fund public education. Don't tell Grover Norquist!
  • Texans support using the Rainy Day fund to restore cuts to public education. Republicans oppose this, but only marginally.

Republicans really are the party of "No." Unfortunately for the rest of us, they so overwhelm the electorate -- and our elected bodies -- that the rest of us are left to suffer at the hands of their policies.

The poll was in the field April 4-5, 2012. We targeted Likely Voters, defined here as voters who cast a ballot in at least 2 of the last 3 November partisan general elections (2010, 2008, 2006). Margin of error ranges from 4.1 to 4.4%.

BOR PAC Issues Poll: April 2012

"Do you think Texas is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?"
Texans as a whole are split on this issue; however when viewed through the lens of party identification it is clear that Democrats and Republicans have vastly divergent ideas of whether or not things are going well in the Lone Star State.


"Overall, do you approve of the way that Rick Perry is handling his job as Governor of Texas?"
Here we see that the majority of Texans disapprove of the way Perry is handling his job as Governor; again, however, Republicans approve of him by an almost two-to-one margin. The man knows his base!


"The Legislature passed a law that requires women to undergo a sonogram before an abortion. Do you support this law?"
A majority of Texans oppose the sonogram law. This is good news, and likely a reflection of the intense media attention surrounding the law. Yet again, however, we see that Republicans are out of touch with the rest of Texans on this crucial issue for women's reproductive rights.


"Proposed new laws could allow employers to refuse to cover their employees' prescription birth control."
Again here we see a majority of Texans opposing laws that would allow employers to deny insurance coverage of birth control for their employees. And yet again, we see Republicans supporting these measures, though by a slightly narrower margin than they do the sonogram law.


"Marriage equality laws allow gays and lesbians to get married."
While this is not exactly a shocking result here in Texas, from a progressive standpoint it is good to see Democrats tilting towards "support" on this issue. Maybe the SDEC should reconsider whether this issue can be in the resolutions section of our primary ballot, since clearly, if narrowly, Democrats support marriage equality.


"In 2011, the Texas legislature cut 5.4 billion dollars from the public education budget. Some lawmakers want to raise taxes to restore funding to education."
The big shocker here is that one quarter of Republicans support raising taxes to fund public education and restore the draconian cuts of last session. Take note, however, that Texans as a whole oppose this move, suggesting that the decimation of public education has not fully registered with likely voters.


"There is currently almost ten billion dollars in the state's Rainy Day fund. Some lawmakers want to use this money to restore funding for public education."
This is perhaps the most important result from this poll: by an almost 2-to-1 margin, Texans support using the Rainy Day Fund to restore cuts to public education. What is likely boosting this number is the overwhelming Democratic support for this effort, as well as the marginal Republican opposition. This could be a very good issue for Democrats to campaign on this cycle, and a difficult question for Republicans to answer: why won't Republican candidates commit to using the Rainy Day fund to restore cuts to education? And in case you are curious, yes, we did ask the tax question before the Rainy Day fund question.


"Some lawmakers have proposed an independent redistricting commission, which would take the process out of the hands of the Legislature."
While Texans as a whole support an independent redistricting commission, Republicans do not. Hey, makes sense -- they make out like bandits under the current system. You know who doesn't? People in Texas who want fair representation, and think the Legislature's time could be spent on better things than drawing maps to protect themselves.

Full crosstabs are available below the jump. Thanks again to People Calling People for partnering with us on this project!

Support more polls and more projects like this. Make a donation to BOR PAC today!

There's More... :: (1 Comments, 35 words in story)

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