I've just finished running my models for estimating turnout of the City of Austin municipal elections. There is very little variation in the grand scheme of things other than to say we are on track for yet another low turnout election.
This election 'feels' like the 2006 mayoral re-elect for Will Wynn (against Danny Thomas and Jennifer Gale), and according to the data, that's the level of turnout we are experiencing right now. Wynn's re-election had just under 18,000 early votes cast in it, not unlike the roughly 20,000 we are expected to see this year.
Problem is, in 2006 a full 67% of the vote was cast on Election Day. This year, the Election Day vote will make up less than 50% of ballots cast. The folks I trust with numbers seem to think E-Day will be just 46% of the vote. That's how we get to just 37,726 total votes cast, or 9.2% projected turnout of the 408,000 City of Austin voters (which is under-registered as it is).
So that means the Leffingwell-Shea-Dafoe contest isn't ginning up voter excitement on even a Wynn-Thomas-Gale level!
In terms of raw votes cast, our TOTAL turnout in 2012 is flirting with the total number of votes Roy Butler received (34,099) in Austin's first direct election of its Mayor in 1971. Or, if you aren't a Butler fan, the 33,992 votes cast in favor of the measure on the same ballot, to put fluoride in our water supply.
The two elections really do provide a certain poetry to this election, the beginning and the end of a system of government and an odd fixation with fluoride. A city whose registered voter base grew by over 435% during this time, saw the number of municipal voters actually drop by 35%. A rather large percentage of the municipal electorate is made up by those who regularly vote, including some who have probably voted in every election for Mayor since 1971. In fact, I'm willing to bet that the number of votes that Dr. Laura "Fluoride" Pressley gets is damn near close to the number of votes against fluoridizing the city's public water supply in 1971. That number would be 12,893, which would hypothetically give her about 34% against Mike Martinez.
There's another way to put the current turnout in perspective visually for you. Check it out below the fold.
An EPA Administrator is ‘crucified.’ An election in El Paso might hang on a bridge. Spills, fines, and lawsuits abound. The future might not be so bleak after all. All that, and more, in this week’s environmental roundup for Texas, the nation, and beyond!
Texas
Al Armendariz, the EPA’s Region 6 Administrator based in Dallas, was forced to resign after a video surfaced in which he likens his enforcement strategy to a Roman conquest, “they’d go into a little Turkish town somewhere, they’d find the first five guys they saw, and they crucified them.” Needless to say, those comments have not gone over well with members of congress or the oil and gas industry in Texas. Debbie Hastings, Executive VP of the Texas Oil & Gas Assoc, claims in a recent Op-Ed that Armendariz’s statement is part of a larger “federal undercurrent to undermine the oil and natural gas industry, which promotes our nation’s energy independence, provides millions of jobs and pays billions in taxes.” EnergyWire is convinced that the feud between the Texas energy industry and the EPA will continue despite the resignation.
The 16th Congressional District Democratic primary contest might hang on the construction of a new international bridge between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. The incumbent, Silvestre Reyes, claims as many as 5,000 El Pasoans will be displaced by the bridge. There is a slight problem for Reyes. According to Roy Gilyard of the Metropolitan Planning Organization (which would be tasked with proposing the bridge in question), there is no current activity to build a new international bridge. Reyes’s Democratic opponent, Beto O’Rourke, called the controversy “the worst kind of pandering. [Reyes] is using lies to create anxiety and play upon that to try to win votes.” O’Rourke has called for the construction of a new bridge, which, he believes, will increase international trade and keep El Paso competitive with other inland ports.
After last year’s wildfire season burned nearly 4 million acres in Texas, Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples announced the creation of the Texas Wildfire Prevention Task Force. The task force is a partnership between the Ag Commission, the Texas Forest Service, the Texas Division of Emergency Management, the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, and researchers at Texas A&M. It seeks to identify high fire risk areas and eliminate the risk through preventative measures, like controlled burns, before wildfires occur.
Four Southeast Texas marine-based entities have filed suit against BP, alleging that the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill “has had detrimental effects on the Gulf’s marine and coastal environments and is to this day affecting business and their ability to generate revenue.” This follows last week’s $7.8 billion settlement in another suit against BP, and federal charges brought against a BP engineer for supposedly trying to cover up the extent of the spill.
Flint Hills Resources, a Kansas based refining and chemical company that is “wholly owned by Koch Industries,” was fined $46,450 by the TCEQ for incorrect valve settings which led to the release of 4,875.5 pounds of hazardous organic compounds into the air from its chemical plant in Port Arthur. At a different Flint Hills facility in Corpus Christi, a leak was reported in an orthoxylene unit last week which led to the plant’s shutdown. The extent of the leak remains unclear.
Port officials say there is no risk for an oil spill after a 750 tanker collided with a drilling rig on Wednesday off the coast of Port Aransas. There were also no reported injuries from the incident.
While Houston remains the worst city in the US, outside California, for ozone pollution, its air quality has improved significantly, according to the State Of The Air 2012 report from the American Lung Association.
Austin’s transit agency, CapMetro, added a cool new toy this week. It is a zero emissions hydrogen fueled bus that has previously operated in Columbia, South Carolina. A privately owned hydrogen fuel station will fuel the bus.
The Nation
The Sierra Club has filed suit against dated coal-fired power plants across Oklahoma. According to Whitney Pearson of the Sierra Club’s OK chapter, all coal plants in Oklahoma emit excess emissions, and the EPA needs to “end the free pass that large polluters currently have which allows them to emit unlimited amounts of pollution during certain phases of their operations. Because people need to breathe all the time, limits of the amount of pollution that polluters can emit need to apply all the time.”
Amory Lovins, an “energy theorist,” claims in this TED Talk that ending the US dependence on fossil fuels will actually be easier, and more cost effective than most of us realize. His central point is that once industry, individuals, academics, and the military start moving beyond coal and oil we won’t need federal regulations or acts of congress to help us along. He also believes that this movement will begin soon. I hope, one day, to share his optimism.
Beyond
A recent study shows that exposure to toxic chemicals can have risks over a much longer time frame than most of us realize. Bruce Blumberg, a biologist at UC-Irvine, says, “it’s not just ourselves that are at risk. We’re condemning our descendants to have increased risks, too.”
Greenland’s glaciers are still melting, but the rate of that meltdown is not increasing as fast as some climate scientists had predicted. Earlier doomsday scenarios had the sea level rising by as much as 6 meters (20 feet) by 2100. Now it looks, as if Greenland’s melting will only cause a 2 meter rise. The vast majority of the Earth’s population lives less than 100 meters above sea level, so any rise could have a profound effect on millions of people.
If it wasn't already apparent, the numbers below really highlight the extent to which the City of Austin and Travis County have been carved up and the extent to which the City and County are outvoted by the other parts of each congressional district.
Travis County enjoys a plurality of the population of only one of its five congressional districts, District 25, where it accounts for just over one-third of the district's population. Harris County accounts for over one-third of District 10 (Travis County is essentially on equal footing with Harris County), McLennan County accounts for one-third of District 17, Bexar County accounts for over one-third of District 21 and nearly half of District 35.
Polls are now open for the 2012 Austin City Council elections! Early voting runs from April 30 to May 8.
Wrapping up endorsement season, Austin's print publications weighted in, endorsing as follows:
Austin Chronicle: Mayor: Lee Leffingwell and Brigid Shea
Place 2: Mike Martinez
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Place 6: Sheryl Cole
Read them here.
Austin American-Statesman Mayor: Lee Leffingwell
Place 2: Mike Martinez
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Place 6: Sheryl Cole
Read them here and here.
The Daily Texan Mayor: Lee Leffingwell
Place 2: Mike Martinez
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Place 6: Sheryl Cole
Read them here.
Before you vote, catch up on Burnt Orange Report's coverage of the 2012 Austin City Council elections:
For a recap of the labor, public safety, and Democratic club endorsements, my colleague Karl-Thomas Musselman has done the work of compiling them here, here, here, and here.
Catch up on the controversy surrounding Brigid Shea's bid on a 2002 Water Treatment Plant 4 contract, and information that she may have been acting as a lobbyist without registering as one. Read those stories here and here.
Want to see the BOR PAC / CAAAD poll on the Mayor's race? Find that here. How about our BOR reader poll? Find out who won that here.
Want to read the candidates' answers to the 2012 Democratic multi-club questionnaire? (Seriously worth a read before you vote, if you haven't already made up your mind, and even if you have, for the sheer entertainment value.) Find those here.
Want to vote? Great! Early Voting locations are listed below the jump.
More than 450 Austin residents joined together this Sunday to celebrate Earth Day and urge the City of Austin to transition away from coal fired energy as quickly as possible. They took part in the city’s largest ever aerial photo, forming the words “Move Beyond Coal.” Austin’s City Council recently pledged unanimously to move Austin off of coal. At this time, Fayette Coal Plant still remains operational.
Austin Residents Celebrate Earth Day With The City's Largest Ever Aerial Photo
Ian Davis, of the Lonestar Chapter of the Sierra Club said, “We want Austin to be the Clean Energy Capital of the World, but to truly lead, the city of Austin needs to transition away from its old, expensive, and polluting Fayette coal plant. This fall, Austin Energy will release findings from its study to see how soon our city can transition away from the plant. All the Austinites who participated in today’s aerial photo, as well as the thousands who have signed petitions and taken action, will be calling on city leaders to remember their pledge.”
I'm doing the Hill Country Ride for AIDS next Saturday. I'm nowhere near my goal, but I'm not moving the goalposts until after the opening dinner next Friday night. This diary is to tell you about the people helped by your donations. If you want to bypass all the heartwarming stuff, you can just donate here at my Hill Country Ride page. But if you want to read some great stories about people getting the help they need, I've got some stories to share.
Last week, we asked our readers to vote in a totally unscientific poll to determine who y'all prefer in the four Austin City Council elections slated for May 12th. The results are in!
Please note: this does not amount to an official Burnt Orange Report endorsement in these races and should not be characterized as such. This is a straw poll conducted to gauge what our readers think about who the best candidates are in these races.
Anyways, the winners of the 2012 Austin City Council BOR Reader Poll are...
Mayor: Lee Leffingwell
Leffingwell romped to a 67% win in the reader poll, which saw over 330 total votes cast in the contest. (Don't dismiss the low number -- that should exceed the number of votes cast in about 75% of voting precincts in the actual election.) Amusingly, Clay Dafoe narrowly edged Brigid Shea by one vote, though both received 15% of votes cast. The remaining 3% of voters inserted a range of comments in to the "other" category.
We're not too surprised that Leffingwell's supporters participated more enthusiastically in our poll, as they have largely seemed more eager to show up for Democratic club endorsements and Leffingwell's campaign events this cycle. Additionally, Brigid Shea's charming comments about our staff and our site probably didn't win over too many undecided BOR readers. Still, we're somewhat surprised that Dafoe was able to turn out more support in the poll than Shea naturally enjoys in our readership.
Place 2: Mike Martinez
Martinez rolled to an easy 77% victory over Dr. Laura Pressley. Given that we are a partisan Democratic site and Pressley is a known supporter of Ron Paul -- she's got a bumper sticker for him on her car, and has taken heat for it in Democratic club endorsements -- it's not a shocker that our readers prefer the staunchly Democratic Martinez to his challenger.
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Spelman received 49% of the votes cast in our reader poll. Tina Cannon came in second with 22% of the vote, Dominic Chavez came in third with 15%, and anarchist John Duffy rang up 9% of the vote. Amusingly, "Other" outpaced the other three candidates combined. Thankfully for Spelman, there are no run-offs in our reader poll.
Place 6: Sheryl Cole
BOR readers chose Sheryl Cole over her opponent Shaun Ireland, by a margin of 69% to 25%. ("Other" received the remaining votes.) Notably, Place 6 received 30% fewer votes than the other races. Note that all four polls were on the same page, and it literally required about 20 keystrokes worth of extra effort to vote in all four.
Pithy Insights:
The voting largely mirrors what I've seen at the various forums and endorsement meetings this cycle. There's strong support in the Democratic activist community for Leffingwell and Martinez -- as evidenced by their endorsements from the Democratic club community -- and that's reflected in the poll. Additionally, while both Spelman and Cole won, there was significantly less enthusiasm for both -- and, to be fair, no major effort by either campaign to gin up votes in the poll. Ironically, both appear to have benefited from the eager efforts of Leffingwell and Martinez supporters to turn out votes in the polls for Mayor and Place 2. respectively. Whether the same will be true in the actual election -- and what the undervote will look like in Place 6 -- remains to be seen.
Twice previously on Burnt Orange Report we have reported the endorsements of local clubs and organizations. As the endorsement season winds down from everyone but media publications, we are providing this more or less final update on where the campaigns stand. You can find the rest of the endorsements previously reported here and here.
The non-mayoral incumbents have all stepped up their game and avoided getting any additional "no endorsements" from this set of groups. While Leffingwell and Shea split these four clubs, the combined total of endorsements is a bit more lopsided with Leffingwell now having received 21 to Shea's 8 and Dafoe's 1. Martinez has 22 to Pressley's 4. Spelman has earned 18 to John Duffy & Dominic Chavez's 1 with 6 official "no endorsements" issued. Cole is in a similar situation with 18 to Shaun Ireleand's 2 and 5 "no endorsements."
Early voting begins Monday, April 30th.
This post has been updated to reflect the addition of NXNW Democrats, the Austin Board of Realtors, and Mexican American Democrats.
We've entered the beginning of the campaign finance file-a-palooza in Central Texas. First up, with their 30-Day reports, are the Austin municipal candidates for whom early voting begins in just 12 days. I have bolded the incumbents who in each case are also the fundraising leaders.
Time is running out for these campaigns with less than a month to go before Election Day on May 12th. This report gives a good sense of who is in and who is out (as Project Runway would say) at this stage of the election.
Mayor: Incumbent Lee Leffingwell out raised, outspent, and still has twice the cash on hand as his nearest opponent Brigid Shea. His campaign notes that his total fundraising to date now exceeds $236,000; Brigid Shea reported a few thousand on her prior report as she had just entered the race. In a press release, Leffingwell's campaign claims to have received 650 contributions, 35% of which were less than $100 with less than half being "max out" donors of $350. The average contribution size is $229 with donations coming from 48 different Austin zip codes. While we have not received a press release from Brigid Shea, she has raised enough funds to remain competitive. Notable donors include Roger Beasley, Jeff Jack, Bill Bunch, Brian Rodgers, Dave Shapiro, former State Rep. Ann Kitchen & Mark Yznaga. Former Leffingwell (Place 1) opponent Jason Meeker contributed to Shea's campaign along with current Place 6 candidate Shaun Ireland. Rachel Van Os, a candidate for Texas Democratic Party chair, and former Attorney General nominee David Van Os are also contributors. Shea loaned her campaign $25,000 on April 2nd, which represents close to half of her current cash on hand; Leffingwell's outstanding loans are carried over from prior reports. Clay Dafoe reported five donations, three of which were fellow Dafoes.
Place 2: The big news here is that incumbent Mike Martinez has 22 times as much available cash on hand as his opponent Laura Pressley. With nearly $100,000 left to spend, nearly as much as the Mayor, it is unlikely that Pressley will have the resources to compete in these final weeks. Laura Pressley admitted to accepting two illegal corporate contributions from U.S. Foods and the People's Pharmacy which she has pledged to return. Notable Pressley donors include Vik Vad and Don Zimmerman, the current and former Republican nominees for Travis County Tax Assessor.
Place 5: This seven-way race has had a good chance of heading to a sleepy summer run-off and the finance reports indicate that incumbent Bill Spelman still has a fight on his hands to get to 50%. Spelman's fundraising does comes from a diverse array of donors including former Leffingwell Chief of Staff Matt Curtis, Kevin Cole, husband of Councilwoman Sheryl Cole, as well as Shea/Tovo donors Ann Kitchen & Mark Yznaga. Additional notable contributions came from former city council candidates Margot Clarke and Jennifer Kim, former Travis County Attorney Ken Oden, Shudde Fath, and Tim League. Behind Spelman is Dominic Chavez whose donors included former Republican County Commissioner Gerald Daugherty, anti-rail activist Jim Skaggs, and former Texas Monthly Publisher Mike Levy. Tina Cannon has a couple thousand dollars on hand befitting her low-cost campaign. The four remaining challengers have raised no money, with John Rubine not having filed any report, confirming our prior comments that this is essentially a 3 person race. Spelman's job is to stay above 50%. Chavez and Cannon's job is to come in second and hope for a runoff.
Place 6: Incumbent Sheryl Cole, while weak on endorsements, is not lacking for cash. She out raised Spelman and should have more than enough money to complete her campaign. Her opponent Shaun Ireland has just two donors, excluding himself.
Following are results from tonight's endorsement meeting:
Mayor
No candidate having received at least 60% of cast votes, membership
voted to dual endorse
Lee Leffingwell
Brigid Shea
City Council Place 2
Mike Martinez
City Council Place 5
Bill Spelman
City Council Place 6
Sheryl Cole
District Judge - 167th Judicial District
No candidate having received at least 60% of cast votes, membership
voted to dual endorse
Efrain de la Fuente
David Wahlberg
