I've just finished running my models for estimating turnout of the City of Austin municipal elections. There is very little variation in the grand scheme of things other than to say we are on track for yet another low turnout election.
This election 'feels' like the 2006 mayoral re-elect for Will Wynn (against Danny Thomas and Jennifer Gale), and according to the data, that's the level of turnout we are experiencing right now. Wynn's re-election had just under 18,000 early votes cast in it, not unlike the roughly 20,000 we are expected to see this year.
Problem is, in 2006 a full 67% of the vote was cast on Election Day. This year, the Election Day vote will make up less than 50% of ballots cast. The folks I trust with numbers seem to think E-Day will be just 46% of the vote. That's how we get to just 37,726 total votes cast, or 9.2% projected turnout of the 408,000 City of Austin voters (which is under-registered as it is).
So that means the Leffingwell-Shea-Dafoe contest isn't ginning up voter excitement on even a Wynn-Thomas-Gale level!
In terms of raw votes cast, our TOTAL turnout in 2012 is flirting with the total number of votes Roy Butler received (34,099) in Austin's first direct election of its Mayor in 1971. Or, if you aren't a Butler fan, the 33,992 votes cast in favor of the measure on the same ballot, to put fluoride in our water supply.
The two elections really do provide a certain poetry to this election, the beginning and the end of a system of government and an odd fixation with fluoride. A city whose registered voter base grew by over 435% during this time, saw the number of municipal voters actually drop by 35%. A rather large percentage of the municipal electorate is made up by those who regularly vote, including some who have probably voted in every election for Mayor since 1971. In fact, I'm willing to bet that the number of votes that Dr. Laura "Fluoride" Pressley gets is damn near close to the number of votes against fluoridizing the city's public water supply in 1971. That number would be 12,893, which would hypothetically give her about 34% against Mike Martinez.
There's another way to put the current turnout in perspective visually for you. Check it out below the fold.
The Austin Neighborhoods Council has issued their endorsements in the 2012 municipal elections. The most notable change is that in every single race that was on both years' ballots, the ANC has switched their support away from the position they held 3 years ago.
2012 Austin City Council Endorsements
Organization
Mayor
Place 2
Place 5
Place 6
Austin Neighborhoods Council
Brigid Shea
Laura Pressley
No Endorsement
Sheryl Cole
2009 Austin City Council Endorsements
Austin Neighborhoods Council
Lee Leffingwell
Mike Martinez
Bill Spelman
No Endorsement
It should be noted that ANC's prior endorsement for both Lee Leffingwell and Bill Spelman was unanimous. Here's their statement from three years ago as written in the minutes from the March 25th, 2009 meeting.
Austin Neighborhoods Council 2009 Endorsement Statement
MAYOR - LEE LEFFINGWELL
ANC unanimously endorses Lee Leffingwell for Mayor of Austin. Of the 5 candidates, ANC believes that Councilmember Leffingwell is overwhelmingly the most qualified and has the best vision to lead Austin through these tough economic times. He is the mayoral candidate who cares most about issues critical to neighborhoods, as evidenced by his budget priorities and his commitment to planning and community participation. We call on Councilmember Leffingwell to step up his leadership on important community issues and look forward to working with him as Mayor of Austin.
PLACE 2 - MIKE MARTINEZ
Besides the strong commitment to planning, community participation, and budget priorities demonstrated by the other endorsed candidates, Councilmember Martinez has shown a political maturity and problem-solving skills that will serve Austin well throughout the broad range of challenges that face the community. The incumbent has provided leadership on many important issues over the last three years, showing an ability to work with neighborhoods even though his position may differ from ANC's.
PLACE 5 - BILL SPELMAN
Former Councilmember Spelman garnered a unanimous endorsement from ANC. His familiarity with the principles of the Austin Tomorrow plan and the community's environmental priorities will serve Austin well as we begin a new comprehensive plan. His commitment to sound planning practices, including community participation, appears to align with ANC's growth management resolution of 2008.
PLACE 6 - NO ENDORSEMENT
Neither candidate earned the ANC endorsement. We hope that both candidates will increase their interaction with and understanding of neighborhoods and the related planning, budget and quality of life issues crucial to Austin neighborhoods.
Sheryl Cole, who in the intervening three years has voted FOR the Water Treatment Plant 4, FOR Park PUD, FOR Grayco PUD, FOR F1 subsidies, and FOR convention center hotel fee waivers, went from "No Endorsement" to getting the ANC's seal of approval. That's rather curious, especially in light of the fact that Cole has the same voting record as Leffingwell and Martinez on these key issues. Spelman's is nearly identical other than his votes on the Water Treatment Plant, yet he lost the ANC's endorsement this year.
Ostensibly, the ANC supports candidates based upon their vision of city government and growth and how it impacts neighborhood quality of life. We have requested this year's endorsement statement and will post it as an update to this post as soon as it is available.
Mayor Elect Lee Leffingwell won't be sworn in until June 22nd, but he has indicated who will be stepping into office with him on Day 1 as his staff at City Hall. You'll noticed some new faces as well as members of his current council staff being carried over into the Mayor's office.
Mark Nathan (chief of staff)
Nancy Williams
Matt Curtis
Amy Everhart
Janet Jackson
This map is courtesy of the Austin American-Statesman which did a great job putting it together after the election. I expect we'll see some more from the Austin Chronicle tomorrow.
I think it's pretty clear that Lee if Mayor of Austin, all of it. Though Brewster was able to win one west campus precinct and the downtown precinct covering 6th Street. Other than that, it was slim pickings for Carole and Brewster on the peripheral precincts.
Brewster McCracken has had a formal complaint filed against him in municipal court by fellow Austin Mayoral candidate Lee Leffingwell. The charges are that he has accepted an excess of ~$8000 more than is allowable from out of Austin donors according to campaign finance laws that McCracken helped approve. Carole Strayhorn, while not a party to the complaint, has joined Leffingwell in criticizing McCracken and called for him to return the donors.
McCracken's campaign replies that the funds are within the caps if one considers the additional funds that can be raised when you allow for a runoff, though there is no explicit provision that allows for that line of reasoning in the current code. And of course, there is no guarantee that McCracken will make a runoff.
A good rundown of the story courtesy of Fox 7. We'd post the KVUE story but they are the ONLY broadcast station in Austin that hasn't woken up and made their broadcasts embedable elsewhere online. I guess they can have fun over in their walled garden along with News8Austin because I'm not linking to either of their content on this.
I wrote below about the cowardly anonymoity of the purveyors of Brewster Nation, and how they actually hurt free speech by violating campaign law and refusing to disclose who they were on their website or in their leaflets.
The internet is a new and powerful phenomenon. Let's treat it with some respect, be honest in our campaigning, and stop engaging in fear-mongering anonymous attacks that destroy the best parts of free speech that gave all of us our (online) voice in the first place.
Details about the group are extremely sketchy; their website has no contact info other than a generic email address. A Whois search says BrewsterNation.com is registered to Kimiko Tokita, a woman who is also named as a media contact in the press release announcing the website launch. However, in a comment on the Brewster Nation blog, the administrator writes “Brewster Nation is funded by a private Austin individual exercising his [emphasis added] right to free speech, and providing a web portal for others to share their opinion.” Tokita confirmed she was hired to work for the group by a figure who, for now, wishes to remain anonymous.
Update by KT: I know who's behind the website. It's clearly your neighbor Lisa.
Oh, and for you Chris Riley voters out there, don't forget to bike the vote in this afternoon.
What: Vote for Chris Riley, with Chris Riley!
When: Sunday May 3, 3:00-5:00 p.m.
Where: Wooldridge Square Park / Travis County Court House, 1000 Guadalupe
Why: For a cleaner, greener, more bikeable Austin
More: http://www.chrisforaustin.com/VOTE
It continues the Strayhorn message which is to attack Lee and Brewster. Though the tacking on of Cavazos in the ad seems a bit disjointed to the overall message.
A couple days ago the Brewster McCracken for Mayor campaign posted this ad to their YouTube channel. In it, McCracken compares the history and relative rise and fall of the city of St. Louis as a warning that not all cities that were once great, continue to be so. Click here to see it (as the campaign has disabled it from being embedded).
On it's face, I think it is a fair comparison and critique. The St. Louis of today is not that of 1904 (nor is Austin for that matter). But the larger point is made- is our city filled with promise or is it growing so fast that we are not able to accommodate the expectations of both those who already live here as well as those who continue to move here because of what our city offers? That's an entirely reasonable debate to have, but politically, pointing out faults of other cities isn't exactly going to fly when you talk to their citizens.
Case in point, the following report from KMOV 4 in St. Louis which submitted the following local report in reaction to McCracken's ad.
The Leffingwell campaign responded (Lee flew to St. Louis during his years as a pilot for Delta).
He flew to St. Louis frequently for years as a Delta pilot.
"St. Louis is a terrific city and I don't believe it deserves to be compared unfavorably to any other city. There are lots of things about St. Louis that other cities, including Austin, ought to be envious of. Nobody should run down another city and insult the people who live there just to score political points at home."
Update: Not all the locals in St. Louis are being knee-jerk reactionaries.
Mark Edwards: McCracken is spot on. The CITY of St. Louis has been allowed to die because of petty politics, a complete lack of vision for the region, and denying its residents essential services like well paved streets, decent schools, and functioning public transit.
As you can imagine, the locals here are up in arms about this shot at St. Louis. They're hurt, and I don't blame them. Its harsh, but its completely true.
St. Louis is the poster child of how to kill a city's soul, drive the people and businesses you need to thrive to the suburbs (where I live and could not be happier), and have city and county leadership spending too much time at the baseball stadium (with the vacant lot next door that was supposed to be a multi million dollar shopping/office/residential mecca in time for July's All Star Game) and not enough time looking around to see what a mess they've made or thinking of realistic ways to improve the quality of life in the region.
I don't know anything about Brewster McCracken. Wait, I do know ONE thing. He's got a better view of the sorry state of St. Louis than the people running our region do. Maybe our local leaders will take a minute, watch this commercial, and ponder what they've done to the once grand CITY of St. Louis.
