Click here to view this site's Mayoral & City Council Endorsements.
More local endorsements have been released.
NXNW Democrats
Mayor: Lee Leffingwell
Place 1: Perla Cavazos & Chris Riley (dual)
Place 2: Mike Martinez
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Place 6: Sheryl Cole
Mexican American Democrats of Austin
Mayor: Lee Leffingwell
Place 1: Perla Cavazos
Place 2: Jose Quintero
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Place 6: Sam Osemene
Sierra Club
Mayor: Lee Leffingwell
Place 1: Chris Riley
Place 2: Mike Martinez
Place 5: Bill Spelman
Place 6: Sheryl Cole
So in short, Leffingwell continues to steamroll the club endorsements (still at 100%), the Place 1 endorsements continue to be split, Bill Spelman continues to have no opponent, and a butterfly ballot is clearly responsible for Mike Martinez losing the endorsement of the Mexican American Democrats.
So the other day, I commented on the fact that Leffingwell had been endorsed by 50 Democratic precinct chairs and how cool would it be to have those on a map to see which areas of town their represented. Being a numbers and data visualization nerd, I have to say I was really excited to see a filled in map from the Leffingwell campaign land in my inbox today! Awesome!
Looking at it, I noticed a pattern. So I pulled up the 2003, 2006, and 2008 City of Austin turnout maps from the city demographer's (Ryan Robinson rocks) website. That's the two Will Wynn mayoral elections as well as last spring's election when Leffingwell got re-elected.
As you'll see in the map below (click to open a much larger 1 MB version), those endorsements track most of the highest turnout precincts year after year. The purple represents turnout rates of 40%+ for 2003, 30%+ for 2006, and 20%+ in 2008.
Tonight saw the largest number of club endorsements in one day that we'll see in the Austin municipal elections. With nearly 10 clubs present at tonight's multi-club endorsement forum, 6 of those have released their choices tonight. A few (West Austin Democrats, Northeast Travis County Democrats, and Circle C Democrats are releasing theirs as soon as tomorrow).
Here are the results we have. I've included an acronym key at the bottom.
Mayor
Lee Leffingwell picked up all 6 tonight announced tonight for a clean sweep and from I was able to confirm from SAD, CCYD, and CAAAD, by wide margins as high as 90% of the vote. I should also note that I've been informed that Lee has recently won the endorsement of the St. Edward's College Democrats and 50 Travis County Democratic precinct chairs. Now if only I had a filled in map of all the precincts they represented!
Leffingwell -> SAD::BAD::CAAAD::CCYD::TED::CAPD
Place 1
Perla Cavazos and Chris Riley continued their pattern of splitting endorsements. TED dual endorsed. In terms of value, SAD is the biggest immediate prize for Perla as it has a large membership and has in past years down some mail to Triple D's south of the river. Chris got value in CCYD and CAAAD which tend to have better volunteer power and CCYDs is important because there is talk again of a potential mail piece for candidates co-endorsed by CCYD and University Democrats.
Cavazos was +1 on Riley tonight, but Riley was +1 on Cavazos among the GLBT groups last night. And they split the public safety unions. So out of this set, neither one has really claimed any momentum.
Mike Martinez won all 6. His last minute opponent Jose Quintero is at a real disadvantage in filing late as they had no chance to compete in these endorsements.
Martinez -> SAD::BAD::CAAAD::CCYD::TED::CAPD
Place 5
Bill Spelman is a councilman-elect. He wasn't even listed on some ballots so he won everything either by voting or by default.
Place 6
Sheryl Cole won all 6. Just as last night, there is scattered opposition votes which is likely what her actual election results will turn out to be like. The only question is whether Sam Osemene will cross the Meeker Mark (22.6%). Of course, the Jennifer Kim Mark is 27% which he could also cross given it's just a 2-way race.
Cole -> SAD::BAD::CAAAD::CCYD::TED::CAPD
SAD= South Austin Democrats
BAD= Black Austin Democrats
CAAAD= Capital Area Asian American Democrats
CCYD= Capital City Young Democrats
TED= Texas Environmental Democrats of Austin
CAPD= Capital Area Progressive Democrats
In what could be described as a rather scathing editorial against Mayoral candidate Lee Leffingwell and Councilmember Mike Martinez, is this statement which is somewhat central to the editorial's argument.
Leffingwell strongly supported a proposition last fall that would have forced the city to not honor its contract with the Domain for tax rebates. Those rebates are based on a certain number of jobs and tax revenue. Voters rejected that proposition; now Leffingwell is trying to undo that contract another way - this time to get the votes of those who supported the anti-Domain proposition.
This of course is referring to Austin Proposition 2 that was put to a public vote by last year's council and failed narrowly.
- I opposed Proposition 2 last year, not because I thought the Domain deal was a very good one (I actually testified against it as a private citizen, before I was on the City Council), but because I believe we should honor our word with people if they have honored their word with us.
Oops.
In reading the editorial, it appears the Statesman was eager to draw the conclusion they wanted driven by a desire to tie everything back to the two candidates support of the public safety unions. Just read the leading paragraphs.
Their suggestion that companies that receive tax breaks and rebates give up the money can't be separated from political aspirations. Leffingwell is in a heated three-way race for mayor, and Martinez is running for re-election to the City Council.
Nor can it be disconnected from their pandering to the public safety unions that support their candidacies. Leffingwell is a longtime union leader; Martinez is former president of Austin's firefighters union. Both have been endorsed by the city's police, fire and emergency medical services unions.
Sigh.
While the issue of renegotiating business tax breaks is a valid one that separates the leading candidates (Leffingwell in favor of putting union contracts and business tax incentives both on the table, with Brester McCracken and Carole Strayhorn both agreeing to oppose renegotiating the business deals).
The city's management cannot unilaterally change the pay of its police and EMS employees because they are working under contracts, and any agreement to delay pay raises would have to come through negotiations with the unions.
The firefighters union rejected a new contract with the city last year, and the city has not renewed formal negotiations.
Likewise, Leffingwell and Martinez say, the city cannot alter its tax-incentive agreements without the consent of the businesses involved. Those agreements, which include sales and property tax reductions, could be worth as much as $4.7 million combined this year, depending on whether the businesses fulfill their obligations to the city.
Here's how I see it. The voters of Austin have had a chance to weigh in on both fronts.
If they didn't like the public safety unions having the ability to negotiate their contract with the city in good times and bad they shouldn't have allowed them to do so- but there was an election and the people voted in favor of giving them that power.
If they didn't want the city to pay out tax incentives to businesses they had the opportunity to take that away and keep more money in the city coffers- but there was an election and the people voted in favor of honoring that contract.
Now, one can argue the finer point of how either of those campaigns was waged and won (or lost) but if there is to be a debate about how to plug the budget gap, it appears that the Austin electorate has expressed this value- "the city should negotiate with all affected parties to close the budget shortfall and we feel those affected parties should have some protections from unilateral budgetary decisions by the City of Austin".
Update: Thank God, I'm not crazy. Leffingwell responds forcefully in today's Statesman. Seriously, read this.
I attended the high noon press conference today over at Leffingwell HQ to see which endorsements the campaign was going to roll out. Needless to say, it was pretty impressive (and as a result, a shame that most of the local TV stations missed out, maybe they were distracted by the fire at the Belmont which Councilman Mike Martinez broke to the world on Twitter).
New endorsements include....
Travis County Sheriff Greg Hamilton
Constable Bruce Elfant
Constable Maria Canchola
Constable Richard McCain
Constable Adan Ballesteros
Constable Danny Thomas
Travis County Sheriff's Law Enforcement Association
Travis County Sheriff's Officers Association
That's all 5 constables and seeing them up there along with representatives from the 2 associations was pretty impressive. I don't think I've seen this many other elected officials take a stand in the Mayor's race. Also, beyond the simple 'wow' factor, the Sherriffs' Associations will be expending their own money on Leffingwell's behalf which is likely to reach into the 10s of thousands of dollars which is made more powerful by the fact that Fire + Police + EMS + Law Enforcement are all on the same page enhancing each other's independent political activity.
That may be part of the old school way to win a municipal election, but with the endorsements from respected elected officials, TheLeeTeam is not only doing it right, they're upping the ante. Question is- will it be enough to school their way to victory without a runoff or will a swamp of new voters blunt their effect. I've yet to see anything from Carole Strayhorn or Brewster McCracken that indicates a hyper engaged electorate but it's still 2 months away.
Video from the press conference.
Video of the constables speeches endorsing Leffingwell, starting with Bruce Elfant.
Enough stuff to catch up on that I'm going to dump it all into this post.
Mayor's Race
Carole Strayhorn is apparently too busy to attend 3 forums this week with her opponents. Maybe she'll be too busy to attend City Council meetings as well if she's elected Mayor.
As McCracken has founded his own campaign on forward-looking technologies such as solar power, his adamant defense of the project was no surprise. And as Martinez is surmised to be Leffingwell's proxy on issues the candidate would rather not wade into at the moment, his fulsome call for caution shouldn't surprise either. Maybe most surprising was Lef fing well's virtual absence from the debate - as politicians take pains to appear cautious, they may not want to remain overly so.
Commissioner Sarah Eckhardt writes an unprompted explaining of her endorsement of Leffingwell on her website. Go read it, but also did anyone notice the URL of the post? "a-word-about-jennifer-gale"? I KNEW IT. Jennifer Gale is reaching out to us to endorse Lee Leffingwell from the world beyond.
Speaking of endorsements, Leffingwell is apparently rolling out 2 more groups and 6 more elected officials Friday at Noon at his campaign office. Could that be the turning point? Maybe if those officials start working their communities. I don't think we've seen anything like that in a municipal race in many years.
Mike Martinez unopposed. Iterated his support for Leffingwell during the University Democrats meeting yesterday which I sense is leaning more towards Lee now. That's important because Leffingwell is pretty much guaranteed to win the Central Austin Democrats endorsement meaning he'd get the Austin Progressive Coalition endorsement and 5000+ doorhangers in central Austin as a result.
Austin City Council, Place 5
Bill Spelman unopposed, though there is still a week and a half to file. Not that we want anyone to file since Bill would be excellent on the council.
Upcoming events include...
South Austin House Party (Oak Hill)
Saturday, March 7
2:00 - 4:00 p.m.
Home of Valerie & Brian Reis
6516 Rotan Drive, 78749
North Austin House Party
Thursday, March 12
5:30 - 7:30 p.m.
Home of Dawn & Fred Lewis
4509 Edgemont, 78731
Austin City Council, Place 6
Sheryl Cole still only faces Sam Osemene. Really. That's it. This race is even more boring than Place 2 & 5 and Cole actually has an opponent. Then again, the only question is if she wins by 20 points or 40.
Wow, this is absolutely crazy. MAJOR kudos to Wells Dunbar of the Austin Chronicle City Hall Hustle. You must watch this insanity which only gets more intense through the end (even after the credits).
Is Carole Strayhorn running any sort of real campaign other than poorly scripted press conferences, no field campaign, and the hopes to win an election entirely on TV ads? Hell, her campaign signup form to volunteer still doesn't work AFTER TWO MONTHS!
All the more reason to repost the ad I made back in January...
It appears that BOR's Open Letter to potential candidates for Austin municipal office is 2 for 2 in the answer being "not running". Sarah Coppola of the Statesman breaks the news that former Texas Monthly Publisher Mike Levy will not run for Mayor of Austin this year.
Levy said that after extensive research, polling and one-on-one talks with voters, he concluded that he wanted to run and could win the May 9 election. But family considerations, intensified by the recent death of his 94-year-old mother, Florence Ruth, changed his mind.
"I simply cannot make the commitment at this time to run and win, and to serve effectively," he said in a statement.
Levy, 62, said he will stay involved in city issues. He also will run a marketing consulting firm that he founded and serve as a trustee of a charitable foundation started by his late uncle.
Had Levy run, I don't think there would have been an electoral coalition that would have taken him to victory but the increased news coverage and campaign spending that he would have generated would have likely increased turnout for the race. With Levy out of the Mayor's race, an uncontested election (for now) for Mike Martinez and Bill Spelman and only token opposition for Sheryl Cole, turnout will be driven soley on the Mayor's race and to a lesser extend, Place 1 between Chris Riley and Perla Cavazos.
My gut feeling is about 70-75,000 voters in May but with more information on how much the Mayoral campaigns end up raising to spend on TV or field, I'll refine that. I'm curious as to what our readers think the turnout will be so leave a comment. I've also included his full official statement below the fold.
The other week, we posted a clip from Brester McCracken's office opening. (See it here if you missed it). The Leffingwell Team has spliced together a little youtube piece as well which you can watch below.
Also of note on the Leffingwell Blog, former Land Commissioner Garry Mauro has endorsed Lee as well as Travis County Commissioner (Pct 2) Sarah Eckhardt who represents large chunks of central and northwest Austin which turn out in higher rates in municipal elections than other parts of town.
This is actually a pretty interesting round-up introducing the official kick off the Austin Mayor's race in the local media's eyes as produced by KXAN. Also, if you are very sharp eyed, you might recognize a couple BOR writers at the 35 second mark.
Also, it was interesting to see the relatively unknown Jason Morales on camera who was quoted with this statement in the story.
"I know Austin needs a professional, someone who has been in the trenches, someone who has dealt with finances, someone who has dealt with a budget." said Morales. "The city needs someone who knows how to tackle these issues and do it efficiently. I know Austin needs that. I know Austin needs a CEO, so I'm stepping up."
Congrats to him for actually getting one of the precious few campaign quotes. Burnt Orange Report is actually attempting to schedule some time to meet with Mr. Morales who recently created a user account here, but I do have to ask the following question.
Given the current climate of American corporate business and banking management, is saying Austin needs a CEO is the best messaging?
ed. note. Kudos to KXAN for actually having embedable news segments. KVUE could learn a thing or two from them.
