The following is from today's press release form the Austin Firefighters. Relevant claims highlighted with a response of mine following.
The Austin Firefighter's Association today released polling data that points to their efforts as the deciding factor in Lee Leffingwell's higher than expected margin of victory and subsequent concession from opponent Brewster McCracken. "No one expected Councilman Leffingwell to win with such a high margin.
Our campaign analysis shows that efforts by our PAC were successful." said PAC Chair Lt. David Lundstedt. Many political experts expected Leffingwell to top out between 39 and 44 percent and lead McCracken by 10 points and were surprised by his 48% vote total and 20 point margin. PAC Vice-Chair and coordinator of the Leffingwell effort Fire Specialist Randy Moreno says the results are not a surprise to him. "We knew going in that turnout would be low and that a concentrated, grass roots, get-out-the-vote campaign could be successful.
Polling data provided by the AFA PAC shows an increase in voter turnout of almost 50% from 2006 in the precincts targeted by the firefighters' team. Additionally, Leffingwell won 7 of the 11 targeted precincts by well over 50%. As a result, "When we endorse a candidate we don't just lend them our name," says Association President Stephen Truesdell. "We back it up with money, time and effort."
Firefighters also point to the targeting of minority voters as crucial to Leffingwell's success. They employed a strategy to reach out to Hispanic voters, traditionally ignored by other campaigns. Efforts included Spanish language get-out-the-vote TV commercials and ads in local print media such as Arriba and La Prensa. They also used new media and social networking sites such as MySpace, Facebook and Twitter to reach out to younger voters. As a result, the Firefighters canvassing team knocked on over 5,000 doors and contacted over 14,700 voters.
I certainly applaud the Firefighters for their work and attempt to look back at the election results to measure the impact that they had. Measurement and analysis of actions to results is something that we see far too little of in politics and I'm not even talking about what is made public. There is far too little of it done for private means a well.
That being said, if one is going to make such claims in a press release, it would be appropriate to release data that can be analyzed by third parties to verify the validity of such claims (which is lacking here). Without an ability to verify claims, they remain simply that- claims.
For instance, the Firefighters also had expenditures and support for Place 1 candidate Perla Cavazos who garnered less than 35% of the vote yet nary a word about the effectiveness of their efforts in that race. Just because she lost doesn't mean that their efforts weren't effective- they very well could have been responsible for thwarting a larger loss. That information is just as valuable and relevant to validating the effectiveness of their efforts in the Mayor's race.
So I'm curious as to which precincts were targeted, even as I acknowledge that the best targeting this cycle may not have been by precinct, but down to the "next most likely voter" in any precinct which was a factor in Chris Riley's election. I'll ask the campaign staff to what extent they might be willing to share some insight into that strategy.
And to put some actions to my own questions and critique, I'm doing a little analysis on those precincts targeted by the 10,000 Austin Progressive Coalition doorhangers since technically sat on that board this year. Look for that post (hopefully) later this week.
Update: Thinking about it a bit more, a ratio of 7 out of 11 precincts being won is far less than the percentage of precincts won by Leffingwell citywide. And from what I was told by other sources during the campaign after putting up this post, it's my understanding that the targeted precincts were in Southest Austin largely in the 4th County Commissioner District. Year over year, that area had the worst turnout by percentage (pdf) and raw votes (pdf) of any place in the city so a 50% increase of the vote there likely represents less than a thousand vote difference in turnout. In a best case scenario based on the turnout of ~58,000 voters, that would be a shift of less than 2% points. Certainly helpful, but just a part of the greater puzzle that boosted Lee's total.
If what I'm told is wrong and the precincts referenced are elsewhere, I'll happily stand corrected. I'm just working with what was shared in the press release and during the campaign.
Update 2: I read this press release slightly different and likely incorrect as pointed out by David in the comments. I also have received the precinct level data since writing this post and will follow up tomorrow on it (though I received it from another member of the local media, not the firefighters media contact who I asked).
(This is probably the most awesome post by a candidate I've seen on BOR in some time. Lee Leffingwell is running for Mayor, and if you know his humor, it's evident in this post. I encourage those interested and undecided in the Austin Mayor's race to read it to get a sense of him and his campaign. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Hello BOR community.
I want to start my way-too-lengthy-I-know inaugural Burnt Orange Report post with a heartfelt salute to KT, Matt, Phillip, the BOR staff writers, and the whole BOR community for creating a fascinating and exciting place online.
In my view, BOR has proven itself to be a superb source of news and insightful, colorful (sometimes extremely colorful) commentary about Texas politics, life in Austin, and life in general. It’s also a great place to keep up with the political career of Tom Musselman. Bottom line: It’s a heck of a good read.
The most exciting thing about BOR to me is the opportunity it gives us to talk with each other about what’s going on in the world around us every day, and sometimes to actually organize ourselves to work for positive change.
As it was for many BOR readers, 2008 was an exhilarating year for me. After eight long years of mostly reprehensible behavior in Washington, America finally chose to embrace hope and change. While I began 2008 as a Hillary Clinton supporter, in the end Barack Obama genuinely inspired me – as he did so many other people in every part of America – to re-think what it means to be an active citizen in a democracy.
In fact, it was the night Barack Obama won the presidency – surrounded by thousands of my fellow joyous Democrats at the Driskell Hotel downtown – that I made the decision to run for Austin mayor.
WHY I’M RUNNING FOR MAYOR
After many months of consideration, the reason that I finally decided to run is pretty simple. I’m running because I believe I know the direction Austin needs to go at this critical crossroads, and I feel confident that I can help lead us in that direction.
As of now, most of Austin hasn’t yet experienced the full impact of the national recession. But times are already very tough for lots of people in our community, and they seem likely to get worse before they get better.
For City Hall – just like for any struggling Austin family – that means having less money to spend, but just as many basic expenses to cover. And like any family, City Hall now faces some very hard choices – choices that could help determine if Austin moves steadily in the direction of a healthy recovery, or swiftly in the direction of a deepening recession.
I believe that right now we need a new leader in the mayor’s office who can and will stay focused on the fundamentals of our quality of life: jobs, traffic, public safety, social services, environmental protection, and effective, efficient basic services and infrastructure.
I also believe our next mayor must be committed to building renewed trust between City Hall and the citizens of Austin. Austin city government should be more inclusive, more transparent, and more accountable, and there is some real work to do in the years ahead to make it so.
I’ve said many times since announcing my candidacy for mayor last month that this race should be a contest of ideas for a city of ideas. That’s why I’ve laid out what I believe is the broadest and most specific platform of any candidate in the race to help us get through the tough times ahead and get back on track to a better future. WHAT I’ll DO IF ELECTED
To help save and create jobs, my platform includes creating a “Green Collar Jobs Council” to coordinate the training initiatives of all local workforce development groups, educational institutions, and major local employers, to best prepare Austin workers to take advantage of new job opportunities in our changing economy.
I also believe that we should continue and expand our efforts to recruit targeted, desirable new employers to Austin, including clean energy companies, digital media companies, and medical technology companies. I’m especially enthusiastic about the ongoing efforts to attract a medical school to Austin, and will make it a major focus of Austin’s economic development strategy if elected.
To help solve our traffic problems, my platform also includes a proposal to hold a transit election by 2010. If approved by voters, this bond package would help us make investments in roads, sidewalks, and bike lanes. I believe the package should also include funding for expanding our rail system, and if elected I’ll work with Capital Metro and potential funding partners like UT and Travis County to craft a viable plan to present to voters. (Capital Metro would actually have to hold the election to win approval to expand our rail system.)
Another idea to fight traffic congestion that I’ll pursue if elected mayor is to convene a working group of our largest local employers and ask them to examine the possibility of adopting “flextime” work schedules. If even a few of Austin’s big employers adopted flextime policies that allowed for variable work schedules, we might be able to accomplish a meaningful reduction in rush-hour traffic congestion.
Of course, at a time like this, some people might be happy to be stuck in the traffic if it meant they were on their way to work. When the economic challenges are as big as they are right now, I believe City Hall must reaffirm our commitment to maintaining a strong safety net. That’s why my platform includes a pledge to not only oppose budget cuts that impact public safety services or social services, but also a pledge to expand funding for mental health care services as soon as possible.
I can’t overstate the importance of this, in my view. Already, there are people in Austin who are losing their jobs, their insurance, their cars, and in some cases their homes. What we can’t afford to let them lose is their dignity, their health, or their sense of safety. More than anything, Austin is a caring, compassionate community. Now is exactly the time to reaffirm our commitment to those core values.
