BOR: - 2014

George W. Bush's Nephew Finally Announces for Land Commissioner

Phillip Martin — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 21:03:09 GMT

Progress Texas released the following on George P.'s announcement for Land Commissioner - he will have to follow his family legacy of No Child Left Behind and Vouchers in his quest to oversee the Permanent School Fund.

(TEXAS) - Today, President George W. Bush's nephew, George P. Bush, announced that, after much deliberation among his family about which statewide office he would deem worthy of his candidacy, he would take his unique Bush-related talents to the office of State Land Commissioner. Among its many duties, the Land Commissioner's office oversees investments made to the Permanent School Fund.

Former Governor Jeb Bush's son has been toying with running for office for months, visiting donors in other states - including Georgia and California - to ask what millionaires from outside of Texas think he should run for in Texas. To date, he has raised millions from his family's network of donors to run for office just because his last name is Bush.

Following in the footsteps of his uncle's No Child Left Behind agenda (President George W. Bush) and his father's school voucher schemes (former Florida Governor Jeb Bush), the grandson of former President George H. W. Bush told the Associated Press that he would run for Land Commissioner.

The following is a statement from Progress Texas Executive Director Matt Glazer:

"Serving in elected office is a privilege, not a birthright. George Bush must go through the same public screening as any other candidate.

"Polls show that Texans strongly reject the standardized testing and privatization policies his family has promoted. Unless George Bush can prove he's not just another Bush, his candidacy is likely to be met with strong opposition across the state."

2014 Texas Governor's Race: Democratic Primary Preview

Ben Sherman — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 18:00:00 GMT

The Republican primary is already getting spicy as donors choose between Attorney General Abbott and Governor Perry.

But what's happening on the Democratic side? With Battleground Texas swooping in to give our state the Democratic voter push it needs, the Democratic effort will be one to watch. There are a number of good candidates who may run, but little besides speculation to go on for now. We can expect to see candidate announcements in June, when fundraising commences.

Who's On Deck for 2014?

State Representative Mike Villarreal: Representing San Antonio in the Texas House since 1999, Mike Villarreal has gained a name for himself as a serious legislator with an appealing personality. After growing up in San Antonio, Villarreal went to Texas A&M and then Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and is now pursuing a PhD in public affairs at UT's LBJ School while teaching as an adjunct professor at St. Mary's University. He has spent the last three years focusing on education (a perfect issue to bring statewide) and budget transparency. Villarreal is young, a strong campaigner, and would certainly appeal to Texas's growing Hispanic voting population. The 123rd House District is safely Democratic, making Villarreal an even more appealing potential candidate for Texas Democrats.

Former Houston Mayor Bill White: The Democratic nominee for governor in 2010, Bill White has spent couple of years laying low in Houston while working in investments. White ran an impressive campaign all over Texas in 2010 that garnered national attention, and his loss is blamed in large part on the year's difficulty for Democrats nationwide. A poll released a few weeks ago by Public Policy Polling shows White leading Perry in a 2014 matchup, making a strong case for White's electability. White was a hugely successful mayor, and has a down-to-earth persona appealing to a broad swath of Texans. Earlier in 2010, White sought Kay Bailey Hutchison's Senate seat before she took back her promise to retire. So it's not impossible that White will seek Sen. John Cornyn's Senate seat in 2014. But no one knows what White will do yet - he hasn't said anything either way.

State Senator Kirk Watson: Austin's former mayor is a well-known, personable legislator who would appear to have the energy for a run at the governor's office. He ran for Attorney General in 2002, losing to Greg Abbott, but 2014 is a very different year. Watson might be able to capitalize on his ability to rev up Democrats, six years of experience in the Texas Senate, and plentiful ideas to make a serious run at the governor's office.

Longer shots include...

State Representative Rafael Anchia: Representing Dallas in the Texas House since 2004, Anchia is known as a likable, hard-working legislator. Anchia would certainly run a good campaign with his appeal to both Latinos and Texas's growing 18-35 year old Demographic. Any plans about future runs for office are not yet known.

State Senator Wendy Davis: An energetic and charismatic progressive who singlehandedly forced a special session in 2011 by filibustering the state's inadequate education funding, Davis would be a very good candidate for governor. She's been representing Fort Worth since 2009 and regularly makes lists of state legislators to watch. Even if she doesn't run in 2014, Democrats will be hoping she does soon. Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilbert Hinojosa recently said of Davis, "From the perspective of electability, she's one of our top superstars in Texas. Her sensibility and approach to politics will just automatically propel her as a top candidate for statewide office."

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro: San Antonio's mayor is the top Democrat in Texas and arguably the brightest rising star of Democrats nationwide. From his celebrated keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention to his upcoming autobiography, it's only a matter of time before Castro runs for higher office. But which office will that be? Castro just announced his re-election campaign in the 2013 San Antonio mayor's race, and says he's "not running" for governor in 2014. That's probably true, but he certainly deserves his place on this list - if only for all the buzz you'll hear about him around this race and others.

Whoever the candidate is, expect 2014 to be a year of energetic Democratic campaigning as Texas comes closer and closer to voting blue statewide.

To The Left, To The Left: The Case for Governor Beyonce In 2014

Katherine Haenschen — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 15:30:00 GMT

Just hear me out on this, y'all.

Houston native and international superstar Beyonce Knowles is the best chance for Texas Democrats to recapture the Governor's mansion in 2014.

On a policy front, Beyonce presents a vastly more progressive and populist alternative to Rick Perry or any Republican currently being bandied about to replace him.

She'd be honest about our Medicaid and education bills, bills, bills, and engage in a real conversation about the need for added revenue in our cash-strapped state. She'd restore the $9-to-$1 federal matching Medicaid funds for family planning so all the single ladies (and the married ones too!) can get their annual exams, and allow Planned Parenthood to participate in the program again. And I bet she'd perform a pretty spectacular state of the state address -- and honestly if she lip-synched it I wouldn't really care.

As for the campaign itself, I don't think there's a Republican ready for this jelly.

If Rick Perry's past performance is any indicator, he probably can't even name every member of Destiny's Child if it comes up in a debate. As for Greg Abbott, even he would meet his match in campaign funding against one of the best-selling artists of all time. She could probably top even Dewhurst-level self-financing! And unlike most people Democrats might nominate statewide, her name ID is already sky-high, and I bet her approval rating is too (especially among the male voters after last night, am I right?).

Democrats have needed a fierce campaigner willing to go after every last voter. While the 2012 data isn't finished yet, females made up 52% of the vote in our urban counties, and if there's one voter who can convince these girls that they run the world, or at least can be the deciding factor in a gubernatorial election, it's Beyonce. She'll persuade the Independent women who have been shifting away from Democrats in recent cycles to come back to the party. And you know, if I were a boy voter, I know who I'd rather see on the news every night for 3 years.

Maybe I'm dangerously in love with this idea. But let's get real for a second here: Governor Beyonce Knowles could not possibly cause more harm to Texas than the trifling', good for nothing type of brother that currently holds the office. At this point, her vast media empire is better run than our state is, and that statement is first and foremost an indictment of how Rick Perry and the Republicans have refused to meet the needs of the present or invest in our future. This diva would be a vast improvement on Rick Perry on every measurable level -- she's even got better hair.

Texas Democrats could do a lot worse than Beyonce, while Texas can't do much worse than Rick Perry. Demographics are changing, national donors are looking at our state with renewed interest, and two of President Obama's top field gurus have launched an effort to make this state the next battleground. After last night's tremendous performance, Beyonce needs to capture this momentum and launch an exploratory committee.

Maybe it's... destiny.

Wealthy Republican Donors Clearly Favoring Greg Abbott Over Rick Perry

Ben Sherman — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 17:00:00 GMT

Unfortunately, wealthy private donors own "our" government. When you think about it, it's disgusting that we talk about private donations at all in an alleged republic, but we have to because that's the system we live under.

You wouldn't know it yet because ads aren't online or on TV, but the Republican primary between Attorney General Greg Abbott and Governor Rick Perry has already begun. Corporate masters are taking sides. And Abbott is ahead.

On Wednesday, Texans for Public Justice released a report about where wealthy donors and corporations are lining up in the primary. Bad news for Perry: in 2012, Abbott out-raised his $5,490,231 by $1,749,196 (for a total of $7,239,427). Even worse for Oops: Abbott has $18,032,304 in his bank account to Perry's $6,028,636.

Those numbers tell a clear story about where the momentum of the race lies. But the TPJ report also has some other interesting facts about 2012 donations.

Massive Dallas donor Harold C. Simmons, one of Perry's top career supporters, has given $475,000 to Abbott and only $35,000 to Perry this year.
Bob Perry, another classic supporter of Perry's, gave Abbott $210,000 and Perry $200,000.
T. Boone Pickens has picked his side definitively, giving $110,000 to Abbott and nothing to Perry.

One naturally wonders why fatcats like Simmons and (Bob) Perry bother to give money to both candidates, even when clearly choosing a favorite. Both candidates will do anything to benefit the massively wealthy; it doesn't much matter who wins. Maybe it's crony state contracts they're concerned about.

But remember, the race for governor doesn't have to be just a Republican show in 2014. There is a clear opening for a strong Democrat to win the race. It's time for action, not depressed gazing at intra-GOP competition.

The Implications of State Senate Terms on 2014 Statewide Races

Burnt Orange Report — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 16:23:43 GMT

The State Senate drew straws yesterday to determine if each has a 2 or 4 year term before running for re-election. This is customary after an election following a redistricting year in which all Senators must run.

The draw has some major implications for our 2014 statewide races here in Texas on both sides of the aisle, starting, of course, with State Senator Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, a tireless campaigner who drew a 2-year term.

Many Democrats were eyeing Davis as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2014 owing to her fundraising prowess and staunch support of education. Had Davis drawn a 4-year term, thus giving her a "free pass" to run statewide in 2014 without giving up her senate seat, she would have had tremendous encouragement to take the leap and run for governor. Now, her decision becomes somewhat more complicated.

Here are the results from SD-10 in the 2010 and 2008 statewide elections, courtesy of the Texas Legislative Council:

2010 Results in SD-10
38.9% Turnout

Governor
Rick Perry: 52.7%
Bill White: 44.6%
Margin: R+8.1%

Lieutenant Governor
David Dewhurst: 58.2%
Linda Chavez-Thompson: 38.8%
Margin: R+19.4%

2008 Results in SD-10
66.4% Turnout

President
John McCain: 52.1%
Barack Obama: 47.1%
Margin: R+5%

US Senate
John Cornyn: 52.1%
Rick Noriega: 46%
Margin: R+6.1%

Davis won election in 2008 by 2.4% over a Republican incumbent, and won re-election in 2012 by 2.3% over a former State Representative.

Below the jump, find out why Democrats should still be optimistic about Davis in 2014, and what the implications are for the Republicans.
Make no mistake, should Wendy Davis run for re-election to the State Senate -- which I think she will -- she will have a well-funded campaign that again sits at the top of the priority list for Democrats in 2014. In addition to being a statewide leader on education and healthcare issues, Davis is the crucial 12th Democratic state senator, providing us a one-vote cushion to block Republican legislation thanks to the two-thirds rule.

While those 2010 numbers are bracing, several factors should give Democrats hope:

Bill White was able to come very close to the 2008 Obama numbers, suggesting that voters can be persuaded here by strong, well-funded campaigns. And remember, Wendy Davis won in 2008 while Obama did not carry SD-10.
Turnout in midterms is usually lower, so that gives Team Davis more potential voters to target for GOTV and a lower number needed to get them to the polls to win. It also makes the impact of any overlaying Democratic or progressive efforts all the more powerful.
Congressman Marc Veasey's district overlaps with SD-10 and he will be running for re-election for the first time, so ideally he will be able to drive African-American turnout in the district.

Davis will have the funding and the support she needs to run a winning campaign. There's no way to prognosticate now and know if we'll see a Tea Party wave (or any other wave) in 2014 yet, but I'm confident she'll pull it out if she runs for re-election to her senate seat.

Senator Kirk Watson pulled a 2-year straw, and while I'm excited to vote for him again in 2014 this is another case of a statewide leader on budgetary transparency and good government who would be forced to choose between running statewide and winning re-election to his senate seat. Should he go for higher office, his seat would remain reliably Democratic.

Over on the Republican side, State Senator Dan Patrick probably has the worst set of options right now, drawing the two-year straw.

He has signaled some interest in running for Lieutenant Governor and got into a bit of an email spat with Senator John Carona over which man might hypothetically replace The Dew had he won his US Senate race (which he didn't). Meanwhile, Jerry Patterson is running for Lt. Gov (and has the bumper stickers to prove it!) even if that means challenging incumbent David Dewhurst. Other potential candidates include comptroller Susan Combs, fresh off under-estimating statewide revenue by $9 billion, who might also take a tilt at the #2 job in the state.

Should Dewhurst run for re-election -- and why not, what else would the Dew do? -- this is probably his weakest moment, coming off a defeat in the US Senate primary. I've got to assume Patrick is polling the field and assessing whether giving up his seat in the Senate is worth gambling on the Lieutenant Governorship in a crowded Republican field.

Dr. Donna Campbell, who I still can't quite bring myself to call "Senator Campbell," drew a 2-year term. While that shouldn't necessarily give Democrats much hope since SD-25 is still a deep red district, it but does present the possibility of a Republican primary challenge from the slightly less, ahem, reality-challenged faction of the Republican party. Dr. Donna shocked many in Texas when she defeated incumbent Jeff Wentworth in a run-off after a three-way primary including former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones. Those of us who watched her relentless campaigning in 2010 against Congressman Lloyd Doggett -- in which Campbell rode a Tea Party wave to win all but one county in the district, that of Travis -- were perhaps less surprised, given the intensity of her supporters.

Campbell refused to meet with editorial boards during the general election and has largely avoided public scrutiny. Now it will be interesting to see how she tries to position herself knowing that she has to face the Republican primary electorate again in a little over a year.

So who runs for Governor in the Democratic side if Wendy Davis decides to seek re-election to the State Senate?

San Antonio Mayor and national rising star Julian Castro has already ruled it out.

Democrats still have some real work to do to win statewide, but we have tremendous potential and immediate gains that can be realized from smart investment in base mobilization. Our Latino, African-American, and Asian populations present tremendous opportunity for Democrats in Texas, and national attention is again focusing on the real viability of turning Texas blue in the next decade.

It's time for a candidate with the potential to galvanize this wave of minority Texas voters to step up to the plate, and the donor community needs to get behind this person as well. Our most successful candidates for higher office tend to come up from the legislature, so it's worth looking to see which of our Democratic state representatives have the energy and drive to campaign hard for two years in order to move the needle and help make Texas a true swing state, and eventually a blue state.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott Tells Donors He'll Run for Governor

Ben Sherman — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 16:49:30 GMT

Greg Abbott, our terrible Attorney General who has wasted millions of taxpayer dollars on frivolous lawsuits against health insurance and environmental protection, has told donors he will run for governor, according to a Republican source.

Due to the legislative moratorium on fundraising, Abbott (and Perry) stopped accepting campaign donations on December 8th of last year, and can begin raising money again on June 17. The Republican source told News 8 that Abbott has told big donors looking to support him in a run for governor that he will run so they can expect to fund him at the end of the year.

This is big news for the 2014 governor's race in two ways. First, Abbott said as recently as six months ago that he'd wait to hear from Perry. In September, Perry said he'd announce whether he's running for re-election in June of 2013. The second reason this is such big news is because Greg Abbott and Rick Perry have the same donor pool. If Abbott is taking away many of Perry's donors, that weakens Perry significantly.

And Perry is already in a bad position against Abbott. "At the midpoint of 2012, Abbott already had $14.5 million on hand, according to the finance records he's filed with the Texas Ethics Commission. Perry has just $3.4 million," WFAA explains. Additionally, Perry is looking very wobbly in the polls after his hilarious run for president and failed backing of David Dewhurst for Senate. BOR's own poll this May showed Perry leading Abbott by only 7 percentage points, 42-35, with 16 percent undecided and 7 percent supporting someone else.

Those are very bad numbers for an incumbent, especially because Perry is so far below 50 percent. If Abbott can run convincingly to the right of Perry, he'll enjoy much, more more success than the completely unknown Debra Medina did when she significantly destabilized the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. And he probably won't make the mistake of insinuating that 9/11 may have been an inside job like Medina did.
A previous version of this post misstated the legislative fundraising moratorium.

I endorse the "Quit Coal" scenario

Chris Searles — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:43:01 GMT

AUSTIN -- Two days ago the Pace consultancy reported financial projections on a "Quit Coal by 2014" scenario. In my view, Pace grossly underestimated financial risks associated with the current "keep coal" plan. Risks, which could send Austin's coal costs skyrocketing. Nevertheless, even according to their estimates -- getting out of coal completely by 2014 will cost ratepayers about 5% more per month...
Here's a breakdown of the 2014 scenario:

1. Get out of the Coal Plant by 2014 (600 MegaWatts)
2. Replace it with 750 MegaWatts of local rooftop solar & 1,000 MegaWatts of energy efficiency
3. Will cost Austinites about 5% more than the current Austin Energy Gen Plan recommendations (keeping coal plant burning till at least 2020).

Let's look at the bill increase:
The avg Austin residential electric bill is about $100 a month. A 5% increase = about $5 per month.

How this nets out:

• We'd severe ties with coal's "negative externalities"
including: 70% of the City's greenhouse gas emissions, destructive strip mining, 100% of the City's mercury pollution, slurry ponds, coal ash dumps and coal ash pollution, local particulate air emissions, regional water pollution, local water consumption, 1,030 asthma cases per year, 50 deaths per year, (and more). (1)

• We'd eliminate alarming financial risks
including: 1. our coal plant is a "clunker" (#7th most polluting industrial complex in TX), one of the oldest power plants in the state ... reasonable assumption? it's going to be expensive to maintain, 2. likely CO2 regulation could double coal's costs locally, 3. potential Coal Ash regulation could add millions to our annual coal costs, 4. dependence on a volatile fuel market makes me queasy (Austin's coal fuel costs went up 73% in 2008), 5. federal penalties due to being out of Ozone attainment (we were one day short of this penalty, Summer 2009). (2)

• We'd reestablish national leadership
Our City's Climate Protection Plan (2007) states, "Austin will become the national leader in CO2 reduction." Currently we aiming for compliance , not leadership. Quitting coal = instant climate leadership. What benefits to Austin's quality of life and local economy would we gain by living up to our own mandate? (3)

• We'd eliminate huge, local health concerns
Important: Austin is "downwind" of its coal plant.
1. Mercury: In 2007 our coal plant released 88,773,103 pounds of toxic air pollutants, including: mercury, lead, cobalt, and dioxin. Our coal plant's mercury emissions were #12th worst in the state, 2007. The plant is responsible for 100% of our City's mercury emissions.
2. Asthma: According to the NRDC's "Clean Air Task Force," our coal plant's pollution causes about 1,030 new asthma cases every year.
3 Children: According to Physicians for Social Responsibility, local coal emissions "damage cardiovascular and respiratory health and threaten healthy child development." Trish O'Day (MSN, RN, CNS) (Clinical Instructor in Public Health Nursing at UT Austin) spoke out about this at the Sept. 23rd Energy Town Hall Meeting.
4. Early Deaths: According to Environment Texas our coal plant's pollution causes about 44 deaths per year, according to the NRDC our coal plant's pollution causes about 50 deaths per year. (4)

• We'd est. the foundation for a clean energy economy
Two key aspects of the 2014 scenario are: energy efficiency and rooftop solar. By investing in putting city money into installing thousands of solar panels and making thousands of buildings more energy efficient -- instead of fixing an old clunker coal plant, over the next 10 years, Austin will create hundreds of jobs, from caulking to engineering.

• We'd have a clearer financial picture for rate payers
Wind, rooftop solar, and energy efficiency all have zero fuel costs. For customers big & small this means very little volatility in pricing. As we've seen with recent price surges in oil, coal and natural gas commodity prices, eliminating this volatility offers a more appealing financial picture, both for business planners and low income advocates.

• We'd "be the change"
Getting out of our coal plant means cleaning up Austin's commerce, creating clean revenues for the City, and showing the world: you don't need coal to run a world-class community.

###

The Question: How will we invest?
My CFO buddy tells me that in financial terms all of this comes down to a very appealing "risk premium" (aka, "risk insurance"). From his professional perspective, Austin needs to invest less in coal. (It's too risky.)

Ask financial folks --

"Would you pay a little more to lock in a long term investment with much lower $$ risk, healthier environmental outcomes, and remarkably less injury to public health?"

######

Notes
*For more detailed info on the following citations, please review the wall posts at our Facebook group, "Austin has a dirty secret." http://tinyurl.com/yjpruvb
(1) Sources: Austin Energy, iLoveMountains.org, 60 Minutes (10/4/2009), The New York Times (et al), Environment Texas, PowerSmack.org, National Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
(2) Sources: Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), Neil Carman (PH. D.), Clean Air Program Director Texas Sierra Club, PowerSmack.org, 60 Minutes (10/4/2009), Daily Texan (6/24/09)
(3) Sources: Austin Climate Protection Program "Resolution" (Feb. 2007)
(4) Sources: TCEQ, Neil Carman / TX Sierra Club, others sourced cited in body.

Thanks to Chris Lowrimore, Mike Sloan, and Austin's Quit Coal Coalition for help with writing this.