Early this morning, University of Texas students once again began visiting utsg.org to vote in Student Government elections. There is a runoff for President and Vice President for the first time since 2002. The runoff pits Scott Parks and Muneezeh Kabir, two members of the current SG Administration, against Minator Azemi and Justin Stein, two university-wide representatives.
A recent editorial in the Daily Texan discussed student excitement in 2008, and it then attempted to encourage students to go vote. Particularly, the piece encouraged votes for Parks and Kabir, but my largest criticism of the editorial is the implication that people are not involved enough in student government elections. In the first vote, 9,274 students voted in the race for student body president and vice president.
With a population of about 50,000 students, that's over 18% turnout. In elections for Student Government, I tend to think that's pretty good. Especially when, simultaneously, elections pertaining to County and State Governments were happening. That 18%+ is close to 3 times the Travis County Democratic Primary turnout (6.65%) and over 2 times the Travis County Republican Primary turnout (8.68%).
And when you look at the raw numbers, to look at just students, it's probably worse. I reviewed the numbers in precincts 137, 146, 148, 152, 247, 266, 267, 275, 277, 420, 429, and 431. Each of these precincts has more students than not, and a few of them are heavily dominated by UT undergrads. A vast majority of student voters are probably registered in these precincts. The total number of voters here: 3,020. Democratic and Republican Primaries combined.
That is over 3 times less than the amount of students who voted in the SG elections, and the story worsens after more parsing. Not one of these precincts is lived in entirely by students, and the ones with the most raw turnout (266, 247, 420, 427, and 275) also have the heaviest amount of non-student activists and voters of any of these precincts.
Truth is, the number of UT student voters is probably a lot closer to 2 thousand than 3. And possibly a lot less than that, too.
I don't suggest that we should expect more students to vote in the Texas Primary than in their student government elections. Students have friends deeply invested in Student Government, and so they'll always vote there in higher numbers. But the turnout was borderline embarrassing when students had two weeks to walk into a popular building on campus (the FAC) to cast their votes. It was embarrassing, and all these apparently-political folks on campus didn't seem to notice.
They were all too busy running elections for government that has much less effect on our lives. In the 2008 General Election, the University Democrats were proud to partner with Student Government, among many others, to help get out the student vote. Student Government should change their election days, so they can partner on such efforts with the Primary, too. The Primary may not matter nearly as much, but it's pretty darn important, too.
She may have won the TX-22 Democratic primary, but considering how Rogers is calling for the impeachment of President Obama without any legitimate cause to do so, can the TDP declare Rogers ineligible to run on the Democratic ticket and select a replacement nominee?
On the Republican side of the ticket, the most important returns tonight won't be for Rick Perry, and they won't be for Kay Bailey Hutchison. Debra Medina's support tonight -- and what her supporters do tomorrow -- could define the next eight months in a way nothing else we see in tonight's numbers can.
The old-guard Republicans accuse Medina and her supporters of being closeted Libertarians, while the Medina fans say the others aren't real Republicans because they don't adhere strictly to the GOP platform on issues such as abortion.
What both sides can agree on is that the Wharton County Republican Party wasn't the same after Medina took over.
Shaking things up in her party seems to be a pattern for Medina, who has sued the state Republican Party, clashed with Murrile over county spending and is now running for governor in a GOP primary that already includes two heavyweights, Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Fort Worth Tea Party activist Deborah TeSelle says she is unsure where she will ultimately place her loyalty if Medina, who was hurt by a gaffe in a radio interview with conservative commentator Glenn Beck, doesn't survive Tuesday.
"There are reasons why we're not supporting Gov. Perry," said TeSelle, who founded the Fort Worth 912 Project, a grassroots conservative organization. "We're just going to look to see who's on the ballot in the fall and consider [which candidate is] most likely to stand up for our constitutional liberties."
She said she will take a closer look at White but added, "It's hard to imagine that any Democrat would qualify." Supporting the yet-to-be-chosen Libertarian nominee might be another possibility, she said.
Two things I want to emphasize: the Glenn Beck side of this story and the 912 project, and why choosing a Libertarian candidate may not be TeSelle's only route:
For Debra Medina supporters, they saw their moment of truth. The 912 Project that TeSelle started was a Glenn-Beck inspired idea. Those principles -- crafted and created by corporate Republicans long ago -- were part of the anti-government movement generated by national Republicans. Medina's supporters are simply the Republicans who recognize the fiscal irresponsibility of Rick Perry, and don't believe Republicans are automatically great. Beck calling out Perry was a great moment.
GLENN: I think I can write her off the list. Let me take another look at Kay Bailey Hutchison if I have to. Rick, I think you and I could French kiss right now.
PAT: Let me tell you something. He's a damn handsome man.
The signers must be registered voters who have not participated in the general primary election or the runoff primary election of a party that has nominated, at either election, a candidate for the office you seek.
File the application, along with petition, by May 13, 2010.
Imagine a runoff did occur -- all signatures would have to be collected in the month between April 13 and May 13, 2010. Debra Medina cannot run as an independent, and neither can anyone at this point. Unless a lawsuit is filed -- which is completely possible. And considering the natural little-d democracy championed by Medina and her supporters, I'd imagine they would have a very authentic challenge to the law if they went down that path.
Then again, support for a Libertarian candidate from the Medina wing of the Republican primary would be huge. That's why what can matter most is how many votes Medina can get today, and how many continue to follow her tomorrow.
Medina has always faced uphill battles, but she's a true believer and someone very committed to her cause. Republicans like Perry will dismiss her as "frivolous" after the election ends, and the press corps will feel comfortable doing the same as they already did after the Glenn Beck setup.
But don't count Debra Medina out yet, I don't know if she has any quit in her...
Ed. note: This is the first in a series of five morning stories about today's elections I'll be posting every hour. I know I posted the image below once already, but I wanted to give Nick Anderson with the Houston Chronicle one more round of applause for the best editorial cartoon this political season.
A Rick Perry win in the Republican primary -- whether today or in a runoff to come -- coupled with a few successful Tea Party challengers in Republican State House races will mean that moderates will have officially been kicked out of Rick Perry's Republican Party. Meanwhile, Debra Medina supporters are steadfast in their hatred of Rick Perry -- especially after he used Glenn Beck to attack her on the air, through the $286,400 in donations Clear Channel CEO and Chairman Lowry Mays gave Rick Perry in the last decade.
So then I ask you -- how can Rick Perry run the risk of losing two flanks within his own Party (Medina conservatives and Hutchison moderates) and still beat Bill White in November?
The numbers and logic don't add up for me -- it's like someone trying to explain why Tom Craddick is going to win re-election to the House. Everyone was so used to Craddick winning, he was given the starting position -- like when college teams get great preseason rankings based on last year's success instead of this year's actual potential. I don't know howPerry gets his support back from groups that know how much he lies -- and we all just seem to assume he will be able to do that. Why?
Each of those three ideas -- Hutchison moderates going to Bill White, Medina conservatives finding a new candidate, and Perry's failures bringing him down -- deserve further exploration, and you'll see a post on each of those topics coming soon. But let's remember why that obvious logic --and reframing the question -- is even possible:
Bill White has an even shot at defeating Rick Perry, and will have the momentum after tonight's results come through.
As the cartoon above illustrates so well -- Bill White has run a general election campaign since Day One, while Perry, Hutchison, and Medina have chased each other to the far-right in search of the most conservative voters they can find. Since Medina has largely been off TV in the last three months, the main show in Texas politics has been between two career politicians fighting each other with negative attack ads and out-of-state endorsements while offering zero solutions for Texas' future.
While Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison attack each other constantly, Bill White has gotten a head start on defining who he is and talking about his vision and solutions for Texas.
Hutchison could never successfully attack Perry because she didn't define herself first. Fortunately, the struggles of the national consultants running Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign are not being duplicated by Bill White and his team. Just take a quick look at the various metrics of success they've managed to enjoy -- somehow under the radar, if that's possible:
Message: Bill White has real credibility on budget issues. He cut property taxes in Houston five times and added more jobs in Houston as mayor than thirty-four states combined. (Source) His television ad buys during the primary have helped raise his name ID, and tonight's election night coverage -- where he is expected to celebrate a healthy victory -- will be broadcast across the state.
Field: Despite a name ID that is growing, but still much lower than Perry's, the latest Rasmussen poll last week showed Bill White polling within six points of Rick Perry (Source). According to some polls, Bill White is even leading Perry among independents.
Perry is already calling Bill White a Washington liberal -- and he'll trot out a whole dog and pony show to make his spin seem spectacular. But that dog won't hunt against Bill White, and the November 2010 election is going to be decided on Texas-based issues. Texas voters want that, and I've even seen Jason Embry write that before, after the Massachusetts special election in January this year:
"The national mood will matter, but Texas elections will be contested on Texas issues."
I hope that as Primary Day fever passes, we stop buying into the prevailing (and wrong) conventional wisdom that Perry's anti-Washington message is somehow effective, or will be effective against Bill White. The spin while we pretended Tom Craddick was going to get re-elected was fun, but ultimately real tiring. Are we really going to put up with the same song, longer verse from now until November? (I'd like to think not, but 30% of the state thinks that Flinstones cartoons accurately portray our history, so I'm not taking anything for granted).
Texas voters will hear two conversations this November. For Democrats, Bill White will be talking about his vision forTexas and his record of results. For Republicans, Rick Perry will be ignoring the budget crisis he created in 2006 which has left Texas -- not Washington, but Texas -- facing a multi-billion dollar budget shortfall going into 2011.
The Big Tent Event: Democratic Primary Election Night Watch Party (A multi-candidate, multi-club event)
Supporters, Volunteers, Friends and Family
You are invited to celebrate with ~ Lainey Melnick ~ Candidate for US Congress and Our Co-Hosts:
Capital Area Democratic Women ~ Burnt Orange Report ~ Capital Area Progressive Democrats ~ Capital City Young Democrats ~ Circle C Democrats
Plus These 2010 Democratic Primary Candidates and Their Supporters:
~ Bill White for Governor ~ Farouk Shami for Governor ~ Rebecca Bell-Metereau for District 5, Member State Board of Education ~ Judy Jennings for District 10, Member State Board of Education ~ Valinda Bolton for District 47, State Representative ~ Donna Howard for District 48, State Representative ~ Kurt Kuhn for Place 4, Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals ~ Lora Livingston for District Judge, 261st Judicial District ~ David Crain for District Judge, 331st Judicial District ~ Tim Sulak for District Judge, 353rd Judicial District ~ Eric Shepperd for County Court at Law 2, Judge ~ Olga Seelig for County Court at Law 3, Judge ~ Brandy Mueller for County Court at Law 6, Judge ~ Elisabeth Earle for County Court at Law 7, Judge ~ Sarah Eckhardt for Precinct 2, County Commissioner ~ Daniel Bradford for Precinct 1, Justice of the Peace ~ Yvonne Williams for Precinct 1, Justice of the Peace ~ Karin Crump for Precinct 2, Justice of the Peace ~ Susan Steeg for Precinct 3, Justice of the Peace ~Raul Gonzalez for Precinct 4, Justice of the Peace ~ Herb Evans for Precinct 5, Justice of the Peace ~
The Big Tent Event: Democratic Primary Election Night Watch Party (A multi-candidate, multi-club event)
Supporters, Volunteers, Friends and Family
You are invited to celebrate with ~ Lainey Melnick ~ Candidate for US Congress and Our Co-Hosts:
Capital Area Democratic Women ~ Burnt Orange Report ~ Capital Area Progressive Democrats ~ Capital City Young Democrats ~ Circle C Democrats
Plus These 2010 Democratic Primary Candidates and Their Supporters:
Bill White for Governor ~ Farouk Shami for Governor ~ Rebecca Bell-Metereau for District 5, Member State Board of Education ~ Valinda Bolton for District 47, State Representative ~ Donna Howard for District 48, StateRepresentative ~ Kurt Kuhn for Place 4, Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals ~ Lora Livingston for District Judge, 261st Judicial District ~ David Crain for District Judge, 331st Judicial District ~Tim Sulak for District Judge, 353rd Judicial District ~ Eric Shepperd for County Court at Law 2, Judge ~ Olga Seelig for County Court at Law 3, Judge ~ Brandy Mueller for County Court at Law 6, Judge ~ Elisabeth Earle for County Court at Law 7, Judge ~ Sarah Eckhardt for Precinct 2, County Commissioner ~ Margaret J. Gómez for Precinct 4, County Commissioner ~ Daniel Bradford for Precinct 1, Justice of the Peace ~ Karin Crump for Precinct 2, Justice of the Peace ~ Susan Steeg for Precinct 3, Justice of the Peace ~ Herb Evans for Precinct 5, Justice of the Peace
Key Point: The NRCC recruited Bill Flores, a carpet-bagging, wealthy oilman from Houston to run in a district he knows nothing about, and now his incompetent campaign is stumbling as he reaches the finish line.
Bill Flores -- the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) recruited candidate for Texas' 17th Congressional District -- is struggling in the final days of the primary campaign. Today, in his latest bumbling mistake, Flores e-mailed his supporters asking them to support an Attorney General candidate in Michigan...several hours before he e-mailed them to ask him to support his own race.
Flores' blunder would be more surprising if he was just another Republican, but since it is the recruited candidate by the NRCC and their leader, Congressman Pete Sessions, the gaffe should almost be expected. Sessions has always struggled with this complicated new technology we call the internet. In fact, just last week Sessions attacked one of his fellow members in a fundraising e-mail. From Hotline:
In a fundraising letter, NRCC chair Pete Sessions lets donors in AL 05 know their "Democrat in Congress has been falling in line with Nancy Pelosi's destructive liberal agenda." The only problem is the NRCC is backing that incumbent, Rep. Parker Griffith (R).
Now it looks like Sessions & the NRCC are having more troubles with technology.
Here's the header of Flores' first e-mail -- sent earlier today at 1:15pm CST -- in support of Bill Schuette, a Republican running for Attorney General in Michigan.
Now here's the header of the second e-mail -- sent earlier today at 3:09pm CST -- where Bill Flores is choosing to support himself. Take note that the "from" and "reply-to" lines are the exact same for each:
Why would Bill Flores think that Texas Republicans want to know about a race in Michigan? Two scenarios come to mind, to potentially explain this very odd turn of events:
Bill Flores is running an incompetent campaign and hired an e-mail client that doesn't know what the heck they are doing;
The NRCC has given up on Flores' campaign and are using his e-mail list to support other Republican races across the country.
Enter Bill Flores … He moved to the district in July 2008, from the Houston area, which is well outside the district. A wealthy oilman, he has close ties to the party machine and in particular Pete Sessions at the NRCC. He also gave nothing and did nothing to try to help win the 2008 race.
Last week Flores filed for Congress here, and the NRCC provided him with a supporting quote in his release. The NRCC has put him on their “Key Races” list on the Freedom Project web site, and they refuse to list anyone else in the race. They have listed a story about him on their web site. It’s clear he’s their guy, and the people in this area are fed up with it.
The Eagle is the second-largest paper in terms of readership in the 17th Congressional District — which stretches from Aggieland through Waco and up to Burleson — and the largest paper that's endorsing primary candidates. (The Tribune-Herald ed. board is keeping its powder dry for now. Click here for candidate forum story.)
The endorsement may be notable for a number of reasons, but it sticks out to me because Wilson is not from the Bryan-College Station area, while three of his opponents are. The paper's support could give the former CIA agent and now Waco residential developer some help in an area outside of Wilson's backyard.
To recap:
Bill Flores is e-mailing Texas Republicans about an out-of-state race and candidate they know nothing about
Flores has already lost the endorsement of the largest paper that will endorse in his district
This is the candidate the NRCC recruited to run in the district
Last week, I argued that Debra Medina was set-up by Glenn Beck and Rick Perry ("Gut Reaction: Team Rick Perry Used Glenn Beck to Attack Debra Medina"). As you'll recall, Medina was skyrocketing in the polls -- it was certain she would force a runoff, and becoming increasingly possible that she would be in that runoff herself. For Medina, a quick appearance on Glenn Beck's radio show probably seemed like a terrific idea -- Beck's constant promotion of extreme right-wing views appealed to the type of people who were supporting Debra Medina.
But Medina was not talking to Glenn Beck the activist -- because there is no such thing. Especially not when Beck's boss is such a major supporter of Rick Perry. According to the Texas Ethics Commission, Clear Channel CEO and Chairman Lowry Mays has donated almost $300,000 to Rick Perry.
Clear Channel CEO Donations to Perry
Year
Donation
2001-2002
$51,400
2003-2004
$55,000
2005-2006
$80,000
2007-2008
$50,000
2009
$50,000
Total
$286,400
Source: Texas Ethics Commission
Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and countless other right-wing radio station personalities are owned by Clear Channel. Beck is paid $10 million by a Clear Channel subsidiary for his radio show (Source: Forbes). Is it any surprise, then, that he ambushed Medina the way he did -- and subsequently told all of his radio listeners to support Perry? After he finished his interview with Medina, Beck went on to pronounce his love for Rick Perry (Source: Radio Interview Transcript):
GLENN: I think I can write her off the list. Let me take another look at Kay Bailey Hutchison if I have to. Rick, I think you and I could French kiss right now.
PAT: Let me tell you something. He's a damn handsome man.
GLENN: He's a damn handsome man.
PAT: Looks good in a pair of jeans.
GLENN: Wow.
PAT: He's a handsome man.
GLENN: Wow. The fastest way back to 4%.
The set-up by Beck was quickly echoed throughout the mainstream media. The Dallas Morning News went on to immediately call it a "game-ending-gaffe." Few in the media, however, noted Perry's financial ties to Clear Channel and Glenn Beck -- or took any moments to repeat the absolutely bizarre conspiracy theories Beck puts out on his own. After all, this is Glenn Beck:
Debra Medina's gaffe -- set-up by a suspicious line of questioning from an employee of one of Rick Perry's top contributors -- could end up being the turning point from the election going to a runoff to Perry winning the primary outright
Today, I received an e-newsletter from my opponent, Congressman Lamar Smith. On the one-year anniversary of the Recovery Act, he outlines the failure of this legislation with partisan sarcasm highlighting only wasteful spending in "The Top 12 Spending Lowlights." Wasteful spending is a huge problem with our government, both during Republican and Democratic majorities and Presidents. We must have accountability for all these programs to assure there are not abuses.
But, as usual, Lamar Smith isn't telling the whole story of the Recovery Act. He omits everything related to our own Congressional District. He has left out the most important information for our own community...What has this Recovery Act done for us here in Central Texas? The highest amount of awards in Texas came into our district, obviously without any assistance from Representative Smith. $2,481,005,612.00 was pumped into our local economy. Our Congressional District also tops the list with the highest amount of jobs created in Texas from the Recovery Act, 20,500 new jobs, just in our district alone.
(There are many lessons to be learned in this important case. It's a poignent reminder why the 3rd Court of Appeals is so important and why there are very real repercussions to some of the choices that Judge Jan Patterson was prepared to make. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Many of us were angered by Justice Jan Patterson's recent attempt to give the rightwingers the majority of the Third Court of Appeals. Today, a case thsy shows why this court is so important to progressives illutstrates the point for our anger at Patterson.
This week a second precedent setting case dealing with GLBT rights in regards to marriage and divorce occurred here in Travis County. Last year, a Dallas judge granted a divorce to a gay couple citing the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Monday, Judge Scott Jenkins granted the second.
Though the State of Texas does not officially recognize same-sex marriages, a Travis County judge has approved a same-sex divorce. Angelique Naylor and Sabina Daly married in Massachusetts five years ago. Naylor sought a divorce, but Daly initially wanted to "void" the marriage. The Travis County Court clerk for Judge Scott Jenkins said the divorce was approved, and not voided.
In both cases, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott has jumped into the fray The Dallas case has been appealed to the the Texas Fifth Court of Appeals. Now, the Travis County case will be appealed to the Third Court of Appeals.
The attorney general's office had previously said when two people of the same sex wish to terminate their union and are in a different state, the proper legal procedure is voidance, not divorce. After the judge's decision was announced, Attorney General Greg Abbott's office has issued a petition to intervene, saying, "Texas does not recognize marriages between persons of the same sex, and the parties do not qualify for a divorce."
This is a classic case of why progressives were so outraged by 3rd Court of Appeals Judge Jan Patterson's attempt to give her seat to Rick Perry for appointment of a conservative and the Court a Republican majority. In AG Abbott's appeal of this lesbian couple's divorce, the 3rd Court will now determine this matter of law. The Court has a 3 Democrat and 3 Republican divide currently. Patterson's deal would have made the Court 4-2 Republican.
So easily, for her own personal gain, Patterson would have sold out the GLBT community of Texas. What other progressive cases would also have faced the same fate? She sold out her Democratic constituents.
So when you vote in the Democratic Primary, you can thank her by casting your vote for her opponent (Amy Clark Meachum) in her race for a District Court seat. Patterson should not be rewarded for almost stabbing us in the back.
