Americans United for Change launched a new television ad campaign in Texas today applauding U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) for standing up to the big health insurance industry and helping pass the Affordable Health Care for America Act on behalf of Texas families. The TV spot called "It's Time" is airing throughout the week on a mix of broadcast and cable TV in the San Antonio media market.
The 2010 Republican primary to determine who will face Democratic incumbent Ciro Rodriguez could look just as it did in 2008, when Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, despite being heavily outspent, defeated lawyer and businessman Fransisco "Quico" Canseco.
Canseco has said he will definitely be a candidate and told the San Antonio Express-News that he has already had discussions with the National Republican Congressional Committee. Larson has not made a final decision and told the paper he would make an announcement later this year.
Due mostly to his ability to self-finance his campaign, Canseco has been encouraged to run by NRCC Chair Pete Sessions. Canseco spent $1 million in 2008 and was soundly defeated by Larson. If Canseco decides to run again, expect Sessions and other Republicans to lean on Larson to stay out of the race, given that he lost to Rodriguez by double digits in 2008.
It's official. I am tired of reading that Republicans have an advantage in low turnout or special elections.
The facts simply do not support the bold claim.
Since 2005, Democrats have won or over performed in nearly every special election in Texas.
The obvious and best example of this is House District 97. In the December, "low turnout" special election, Dan Barrett won. In the November general election, Dan Barrett lost. Barrett saw a 10 point erosion in his numbers while Shelton saw a nearly 8 point gain.
House District 97 Special Election Dan Barrett (D) - 52.18%
Mark M. Shelton (R) - 47.81%
House District 97 General Election Mark M. Shelton (R) - 55.33%
Dan Barrett (D) - 42.75%
Nothing changed. Barrett was out spent in both elections. Shelton was cozy to Craddick in both elections. The only major difference is the turnout numbers. Barrett won the low turnout election, Shelton won the high turnout election.
It may seem like an overstatement, but looking back to 2005 the Republican special election not only appears to be a fallacy, it appears to be nonexistent.
2006 was a very good year for Democrats who ran in supposedly Republican favored special elections.
U. S. Representative District 23 Henry Bonilla (R) - 45.71%
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) - 54.28%
State Representative District 48 Ben Bentzin (R) - 42.38%
Donna Howard (D) - 57.61%
In 2006, Democrats won every special election they ran in with the exception of House District 29. House District 29 hasn't elected a Democrat since 2000 and no Democrat has received more than Tom Uher did in 2002 when he got 42.59% of the vote after 9/11. Before that, Uher represented a totally different district than what is now HD-29. Before the census and redistricting, Uher's district was a democratically favorable district, and since, it has been carved in a way to help elect over 100 Republicans in Texas (as was Tom DeLay's goal at the time).
You have to go back to February 2005 to see a special election contest where a Republican had a definitive win.
State Representative District 121 Paul Silbert (I) - 3.09%
Rose Spector (D) - 33.58%
Glen S. Starnes (R) - 1.38%
Joe Straus (R) - 61.93%
As Kuff wrote in 2005, House District 121 was and continues to be a Republican district. House District 121 in northeast San Antonio and stretched from Olmos Park northeast to Windcrest and north past Loop 1604.
Although Spector lost, she still did better than the Democratic challenger did against Elizabeth Ames Jones in 2000.
State Representative District 121 Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) - 68.24%
Michael G. Zapper (D) - 28.68%
J. (Jay) Moore (L) - 3.07%
While it didn't win us the seat, Democrats saw a nearly 5 point increase during the 2005 special election. In a competitive race, a 5 point swing would be the difference between victory and defeat.
In fact this phenomenon extends beyond urban districts. On February 17, 2004, Democrats were only 3.5 points away from winning the rural Senate District 1 in a special election.
State Senator, District 1 (Unexpired) Kevin Eltife (R) - 51.86%
Paul Sadler (D) - 48.13%
The truth is, Democrats do well in special elections. The reasons differ. The politics and finances differ from year to year and campaign to campaign, but the empirical data remains consistent.
As we move rapidly towards December 16, it is more important than ever for us to elect Congressman Chris Bell. The data shows it will only get harder.
(for more information about the Senate District 17 special election click here.)
Americans United for Change, a non-profit progressive issue-advocacy group that recently launched its Bush Legacy Project, today unveiled its latest TV ad series called 'Break' which recognizes U.S. Reps. Nick Lampson (TX-22) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) for their work towards a stronger economy, especially their success in passing meaningful legislation to provide immediate tax relief for hard working Americans - $1,200 for most families - including vital relief for seniors, veterans and families with children.
In addition to Lampson and Rodriquez, AUFC also began airing ads recognizing Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1) and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20). All four ads are running on a mix of cable and broadcast in these Members' districts and will run through the rest of the week.
This is great news and really speaks to how important it was to win back TX-23 last year in the special rather than waiting around til 2008.
Rep. Ciro Rodriguez has nearly $600,000 available for his re-election campaign, almost twice as much as his nearest potential 2008 challenger, Federal Election Commission records show.
San Antonio lawyer Francisco "Quico" Canseco, a Republican, has $303,553 in cash-on-hand. He raised $78,000 during the three-month period ending Sept. 30 and loaned his campaign $140,000.
The campaign spent $350,000 on TV and radio advertising.
Jim McGrody, a businessman seeking the Republican nomination, raised $11,000 and ended the period with $5,500 in cash-on-hand.
One other interesting note from the SAEN story...
Canseco's decision to spend his personal funds have earned him support from Republicans in Washington, said David Wasserman, an analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
I wish the Republicans (as well as Democrats) would move past the idea that spending your own personal funds is the only way to be taken seriously by insiders in Washington. Self-funders track record isn't all that great. Here's what the Wall Street Journal pointed out about self-funding earlier this year.
Indeed, the majority of self-funded campaigns fail. The Center for Responsive Politics says only one of the 30 congressional candidates who spent at least $500,000 of their own money in 2004 got elected. (That one was Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican.)
Acording to Jennuifer Steen, a professor at Boston College who wrote a book on self-financed candidates for Congress, such candidates won only about 30 percent of their elections between 1990 and 2000.
Granted, Steen says that spending millions of your own money on a race can blunt the opposition. But for the most part, money doesn't guarantee victory. What matters more is the experience of a candidate and his or her appeal to voters. While money helps, it can't rescue a bad candidate.
Ciro may not have always had the best track record in raising money but he's been steadily building up his campaign coffers and should be well placed in 2008 as an incumbent.
This is an old story I'm just getting around to writing. Sorry for the delay -- I've been doing orientation up at the KSG school. -- Phillip
Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated Republican Henry Bonilla last December to regain his seat to the Texas 23'rd CD. At the time, the San Antonio Express-News described the win as follows:
The soundness with which Rep. Henry Bonilla, the one-time Hispanic poster boy of the Republican Party, was beaten Tuesday night was the equivalent of a political earthquake.
Congressman Rodriguez already has a formal challenger, however -- and the challenger, named Jim McGrody has launched such a comprehensive website that it gained the attention of the paper. In Bruce Davidson's column titled, "'Nerdy' game plan for candidate" he writes:
He has addressed the entire Texas Republican Party platform line by line, agreeing with most of it. And he has unveiled Compact 23, a list of key positions and principles.
McGrody also has detailed how his voting record would differ from incumbent Rep. Ciro Rodriguez's with his Vote Count Database.
[...]
But McGrody, a 67-year-old retiree, is betting that he can use his Web site, Internet marketing skills and a fast-growing e-mail list to communicate with voters repeatedly for only a small amount of money and better than his well-funded foes.
To be certain, McGrody's website is quite impressive. Granted, his policies and positions are terribly out of line and leave much to be desired for the people in his district. But he has certainly capitalized on the benefits of the internet in terms of establishing your presence and communicating to your audience.
Note: The following is a general overview of a new blog I am working on called Progressive Wave. It is a re-post from Daily Kos. Simply put, we are looking for a large number of bloggers to cover our new representatives and senators in Congress. For Texas, we'd appreciate any bloggers who would be interested in covering Nick Lampson or Ciro Rodriguez. If you're interested, please post here or email me at my address in my profile. Thanks!
It's great to see citizen journalism in action. A project here at Daily Kos is picking up steam - where we 'adopt' a congressional committee and keep tabs on their progress. It's a great idea, and by all means one that we should encourage; after all, a democracy thrives when its citizens participate actively within it.
Before the election I was thinking of taking a similar principle and applying it to our newly-elected Congresspersons and Senators in the U.S. Congress. Many of our newly-elected representatives come from extremely close races (such as Patrick Murphy in PA-08 or Joe Courtney in CT-02), or they are in areas that will make it a challenge for them to be re-elected every time they are up (Nick Lampson in TX-22 or Nancy Boyda in KS-02). While the Netroots-endorsed list has only included challengers, it's inevitable that we will have to begin defending our incumbents, beginning in 2008.
Not only did Ciro's win in TX-23 make for a very nice Christmas gift to Democrats, it also is an investment. As many in Texas know, Bonilla (the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress) was the poster boy for the Republican Party's 'outreach' to Latino voters. Meaning of course, the photo-shopped version of someone who looks like you but sells you out and screws you over in reality.
Not only that, but it's an open secret that Bonilla had his eyes on becoming a US Senator for Texas. For now, we've taken away his launching pad and platform to run for statewide office. As Paul Burka said today...
Bonilla may have stayed at the party too long. He has always wanted to move up to the Senate, and it seemed a possibility four years ago when Phil Gramm announced that he would not seek reelection. But Gramm and Rick Perry could not agree on a scenario that would have led to Gramm's early resignation and Bonilla's appointment, and the moment passed. Since then, Bonilla has had a run of bad luck: the U.S. Supreme Court said that his safe district violated the Voting Rights Act last spring--the only district on Tom DeLay's map that didn't pass muster--and a three-judge panel drew him a 61% Hispanic district in which he had no long-term (and, as it turned out, no short-term) future.
In addition, Ciro should be able to hold this seat, becoming a Democratic Progressive Hispanic Representative in the majority party. That takes a load off the DCCC in 2008 when they will be fighting all over the country letting us focus in Texas on holding Lampson and taking out the like of McCaul and others instead.
The soundness with which Rep. Henry Bonilla, the one-time Hispanic poster boy of the Republican Party, was beaten Tuesday night was the equivalent of a political earthquake.
The seven-term incumbent, who as late as Tuesday harbored dreams of becoming a U.S. Senator, was essentially fired from office and replaced by Ciro Rodriguez, a former congressman known more for being a good man than a good campaigner.
Defying every political truism of Bexar County politics, Bonilla started the night by becoming the rare well-known Republican to not only lose early voting, but to lose it badly.
Last night's victory in TX-23 was a huge one, the majority of the credit for which must be placed at the hands of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The DCCC spent over a million dollars in the last month helping build out Ciro's campaign and the hard work of Adrian Saenz, Meghan Gaffney, and Vanessa Gonzalez put him over the top. Their work as well as that of others that went unseen, was critical in making this a winning race.
The TDP, while constrained by the McCain-Feingold laws, did its part and devoted voter information, a secondary field program in 6 counties, some fundraising, and a few statewide e-mails (though woefully inept in that department as usual). Still, it's more than I'd ever have expected out of the TDP prior to Boyd Richie and should be congratulated.
And of course, there are thanks to be made to LULAC & MALDEF who fought ongoing legal battles to keep early voting going, True Blue Action, the TexRoots, Labor, and many other players.
But the one group that would have you believe they did it all and were the first out of the gate and into bloggers inboxes with their "look what we won" e-mail, would be the Lone Star Project. While they have done plenty of good stuff in the past, their release last night and this falling-over-themselves piece is best summed up by McBlogger.
I wasn't going to write anything about this, but goddamn if there wasn't an email last night, mere hours after Ciro Rodriguez won, from LSP taking credit for the damn thing. Matt [Angle], I'm going to terminate my address on your f***ing list if you don't stop with the auto-fe****io. Seriously, how much did LSP raise for Ciro? From my perspective, this was the candidate, DCCC, LULAC and MALDEF. LSP didn't even like the LULAC map that produced this district; now you're the ones responsible?
The winners are never going to call bullshit, so it falls to us. Matt you do a hell of lot and there is no need to take credit for everything. It distracts from the real work ahead and breeds resentment among people who work really hard, cycle after cycle. People you're going to need at some point in the future.
Sometimes, modesty is an asset.
Indeed. Now on to the rest of the analysis and impact of this race as that's off the blogs' collective chest.
