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Rick Perry Narrows Lead on Kay Bailey Hutchison in Latest Poll


by: Phillip Martin

Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 00:29 PM CDT


Via the DMN Trailblazers blog:

Asked who they'd vote for it the primary were today, 36 percent of registered likely GOP voters said Hutchison, 30 percent for Perry. A quarter say they remain undecided -- a huge number. The survey was conducted Feb. 24-March 6. The margin of error is 5.7 percent -- which means the results are effectively a tossup.

Here's a direct link to the poll, which was conducted by the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin. While I still contend that polls are more or less meaningless at this stage of the game -- as evidenced by 25% undecided -- this should push back on the (worthless) conventional wisdom that Rick Perry is somehow out of this race. I still think Perry will win in the primary -- he has a presence in the state, he is more connected with the hardcore base voters that will absolutely turn out to vote, and he's a cyborg that never sleeps so he'll be able to campaign 3-4 times more than Hutchison.

Other results from the poll show why either Perry or Hutchison can lose to a strong Democrat candidate in 2010:

When asked if they supported or opposed reinstating legislative control over tuition rates at Texas public colleges and universities, 48% expressed support, 26% were opposed, and 27% didn't know. In a separate question, 61% said that the amount of state revenue used to make higher education more affordable should be increased.

Texas Democrats are leading on higher education issues right now, fighting to rollback the increased tuition rates and make college more affordable for all those who want to attend. 

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Grain of salt (0.00 / 0)
Internet poll that got 715 registered voters, of which ~42% said they would vote in the GOP primary. In 2006, 5% of registered voters voted in the GOP Primary. Turnout didn't even come close to 42% in the 2006 general election.

Even if the Perry/Hutchison showdown matched the 2008 GOP presidential primary turnout, 3/4 of the respondents would not be GOP primary voters. Their 2008 general election poll wasn't bad, but I don't think these GOP primary numbers are credible.

The 42% is based on the 5.7% margin of error, which indicates about 300 of the 715 said they would vote in the primary.


GOP Primary (0.00 / 0)
Assuming Jack doesn't need my vote in the D primary, I may just have to cross over to vote for Kay Bailey.

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