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My Hat's Off to Burka On Predictions

by: Phillip Martin

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 10:44 AM CST

I'll be honest -- I've ripped Burka apart many times on BOR. Two years ago we nailed the elections, and he didn't so much. Yesterday, he predicted 76-74 Republican (I picked the same, for Democrats), and he was right.

Notably, he had the Barret/Garcia races nailed down. I learned what a huge difference it is between making predictions while living in the middle of it all (like I was in 2006) and making predictions when I just have to have phone conversations and e-mail exchanges. It's harder to detect when smoke is being blown up my ass over the phone -- which happened with my understandings of the Barret, Garcia, & Dippel races (Dippel's Bastrop County turnout never took off like the numbers predicted).

The only person who was most honest with me, not surprisingly, was my favorite consultant, Ed Martin (yes, relation). Alas...sons can still be stubborn and pretend they know more than their fathers. Some things never change.

Before I give Burka too much credit, I'll go ahead and say that I did call the Davis/Brimer race, and my Presidential predictions were much closer. But the TX House was the real fight, and he did better by 2. Of course, if Bob Romano flips...we'll also be tied. Funny? Ironic? Nobody cares, do they? Anyways...

Congratulations on the picks, Paul. But don't worry -- I'll keep poking you with a big stick because that's how I show respect to those I may often disagree with. Which leads me to an analysis of the Speaker's race...

...starting tomorrow. Today -- I mean, come on. OBAMA! OBAMA!


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