| Click here to return to the Burnt Orange Political Report home page. Earlier this morning, I started to write about how Senator Obama's money could benefit Democrats running for the Texas House: If we can protect all of our incumbents, win a few of the open seats and win a few challenge races, then we can elect -- to use the term of "Orange to Blue" framing -- a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House.
I went on to discuss at least three direct positives from having a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House. However, I wouldn't expect anyone to send money to a state where it wouldn't be effective, and though it may be a motivating idea, hope is not a strategy. Looking at this week's State House predictions for the Burnt Orange Politial Report, though, I can confidently make an argument that Texas Democrats don't need need to rely on hope alone as a strategy. There is a clear path to victory for a Democratic Majority in the Texas House. Here's how it happens -- counting up from our current 79 Republican, 71 Democrat split: 72nd & 73rd House Democrats: Diana Maldonado & Chris Turner (Lean Democrat)
To learn more about the specifics of each race, click on the links above. Maldonado is running in Williamson County, just north of Travis County (Austin, TX). Southern Williamson County is one of the suburban / ex-urban counties that Democrats are starting to win across the country, as Texas families move away from big city centers to find space, better schools, and a perceived higher quality of life. Maldonado is the former President of the Round Rock ISD Board of Trustees; she has a perfect profile in the district, is dominating in fundraising, and has an excited group of volunteers that are about to send her to the State House in a race where the unpopular incumbent Republican cut and ran. Turner is one of the best campaigners we have in the state. Also with a major fundraising lead, he has worked as District Director for Congressman Chet Edwards -- Chris knows how to run a tough race in Republican country, and the district he's running in isn't that conservative. He's running against right-wing immigrant-bashing nutcase Bill Zedler, whose website prominently features Rush Limbaugh on his site! Maldonado and Turner are both "Lean Democrat" seats. 74th Democrat: Joe Moody in El Paso, TX (Toss-Up) Another open seat, Moody has the best base Democrat vote of any challenger running. A new El Paso Times poll has an inordinate number of undecideds, and I'm told that internal polls show that Moody is poised to do well in the seat. A young, energetic candidate, Moody has shown promise as of late in his efforts to knock on doors in communities typically ignored by elected officials. We also have today's news that Moody's signs are showing up at GOP headquarters. If there is strong Hispanic GOTV efforts in El Paso County for Senator Obama, Moody will sweep into office no question. But this is definitely a place where extra money from Senator Obama for GOTV efforts could help him, not only to increase his own % of the Hispanic vote, but to elect another Democrat to the State House. 75th Democrat: Joel Redmond in Harris County (Toss-Up)
Redmond is running in an open seat that was vacated by a staunch conservative who happened to be opposed to our entrenched House Speaker, Tom Craddick. Winning this seat, therefore, preserves a vote against a terrible House Speaker AND gets us a Better Demorat to vote on issues. Redmond has knocked almost every door in his district. He's running in Harris County, where the County Coordinated Campaign is running a heavy effort for races up and down the entire ballot. Senator Obama sinking money into GOTV efforts in Harris Count would help push Redmond over the top, as well as help him with U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega, Congressional candidates Larry Joe Doherty and Michael Skelley, and numerous other State House races -- including Redmond. 76th Democrat: Carol Kent in Dallas (Toss-Up) This race has moved up from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up" over the past week. It was always on the verge, and I received more e-mails this week than on any other candidate. Here's how one commenter made the argument: 1) Carol received a strong endorsement from the Dallas Morning News. Harriet Miller did not receive the endorsement in 2006.
2) Carol is an elected official having served on the Richardson School Board since 2004. Most of the district sits within the Richardson School District.
3) The Obama wind behind our back.
4) Carol has done very well with her fundraising.
5) Carol has strong crossover appeal. I've seen many homes with McCain and Kent signs.
6) Republicans who know Goolsby don't like him. Basically they see him as a do-nothing.
I also have had conversations directly with the Kent campaign. I hope to post some of the figures from those conversations later in the week -- but at the end of the day, there are too many positives for Kent in this race to not at least consider it a "Toss-Up." Senator Obama performed well in Dallas County in the primary; he could do well to direct GOTV money towards this other newly-minted Blue area of Texas, both for Texas House races as well as potential races in the State Senate AND to help move Rick Noriega over the hump. Lean Republican Races -- As Many as 80 Democrats? Any one of these races are within range for Democrats this cycle. Murphey -- another Chet Edwards staffer -- is running a perfect ground game in a moderately conservative district. Matula and Thibaut could both benefit from the massive efforts in Harris County this cycle. Miklos is flying under the radar in Dallas now that Kent's campaign is surging, but a strong direct mail program in the last two weeks could push his margins close. All of these races are within a few points -- and a strong, "vote straight Democratic ticket" effort could make the difference. Plans are in place by County Coordinated campaigns and the Texas Democratic Party to hammer home the "vote straight Democrat" message in the final days...but Senator Obama could move $1-2 million into Texas and put all of these races in play immediately. That is the State of the House races two weeks from election day. Will Senator Obama and national Democratic organizations help Texas Democrats just like we've helped them so much over the years? Stay tuned. |
