| It's amazing what one poll will do to validate what we've been feeling on the ground in the last month. The Texas Senate race is closing even in the midst of John Cornyn's horrendously bad TV ad campaign.
After having been written off entirely on the national scene for the last couple of months, I'd just like to remind folks of what's been said places in the last couple of days.
From Markos at Daily Kos...
But despite that funding disparity, Cornyn has been unable to put this race away. In fact, it's closing. The nation's economic problems can't help a little-known incumbent of little note. In addition, voter registration efforts in the state are breaking records.
This race has yet to graduate to the top tier, but it stubbornly refuses to fade away. That Cornyn hasn't been able to close the deal is testament to his weakness among the electorate and a chance for this to still be the sleeper upset of the season.
From Electoral Advantage...
This is probably a bit close for comfort as far as Cornyn is concerned, as with his huge campaign warchest and Texas' natural Republican tilt, this race feels like it should be a blowout. Cornyn's 57%/30% favorable mark is much better than Noriega's 46%/36%, and the two are basically on par in name ID, so I don't think this race will get much closer, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
STRONG ADVANTAGE FOR CORNYN, at least for now.
Open Left has added Texas back to it's Senate tracker for the first time in months. Chris Bowers adds.
Even beyond the pickups, the field of possible Democratic pickups is opening up quite a bit, with Georgia, Kentucky and Texas dropping into single digits.
Howie Klein at Down With Tyranny added...
One of the two Mississippi seats (Roger Wicker's) is vulnerable and Rick Noriega, Andrew Rice and Tom Allen have been picking up steam in Texas, Oklahoma and Maine. If all that breaks for the Democrats, they could wind up with 65 seats...
MyDD has been back on the race ever since Hurricane Ike. Todd Beeton had the following comment and has promoted topics on Noriega multiple times.
Noriega has always had a strong netroots and grassroots base -- that's how he got into the senate race in the first place.
Over at Elector-Vote.com's map, Texas has moved into "Weak GOP" column for the first time.
Over at Pollser.com's Senate map, Texas has moved into the "Lean GOP" column as the poll trend closes.
And over at my favorite projections site, FiveThirtyEight.com now lists Texas in the Likely GOP category (moved out of safe) thanks to the updated poll numbers and had this to say.
In addition, polling in Georgia and Texas indicates that those races may be viable pickup opportunities in a wave election,
So if you're feeling more inspired, drop Noriega some $$ here. |
