| Remember how everyone was freaking out about how Sarah Palin was going to change politics, and everyone was so devastated that the Maverick Mooseburgers would take over the White House? Yeah, that's over. From CBS News: In a sign that John McCain's convention bounce has dissipated, Barack Obama has taken a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over his Republican rival among registered voters in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll. [...] While Palin remains popular among McCain voters, the poll suggests that the McCain campaign may have cause for concern. More than half of registered voters do not think Palin is prepared for the job of Vice President, and even McCain supporters cite “inexperience” as what they like least about her.
Just 17 percent of registered voters say McCain chose Palin because she is well qualified for the job of Vice President. Seventy-five percent say McCain made the choice to help win the election. (Even voters backing the Republican ticket share this view: 53 percent say the Palin choice was to help McCain win in November.) Contrast that with the perception of Obama's selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate: 57 percent of registered voters say Obama chose Biden because he is well qualified.
This isn't a fluke either -- it's a trend reflected in a number of polls that show Obama pulling away from McCain. What's more, Chris Bowers -- who has had the best daily analysis of state-by-state polls this entire election season -- reminds us of three important things about the election cycle to date (I'll summarize): - Obama has never lost the lead in any of the Kerry states, even at McCain's peak, this cycle. (252 electoral votes)
- Obama has been leading in Iowa with its state's 7 electoral votes -- a state Bush won, by the way -- every single day of the election cycle. Even after the RNC Convention, Obama was up. (259 electoral votes).
- Obama has shown a steady lead in New Mexico (5 electoral votes) for some time -- just look at the Pollster.com composites. (264 electoral votes)
That leaves six electoral votes to win. Bowers points out that Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado are the remaining three. Bowers argues for Colorado -- though I think Virginia has a great shot, too. Either way, it is a path where Obama could lose Florida and Ohio and still win the election.The country is finally getting over the Palin pick --- the fact that she is blaming the lobbyists of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which would include her own campaign manager, for the economic troubles isn't going to help her -- and Obama is now on at least Week 2.5 of hitting McCain hard. Timing is everything, and Obama is managing expectations and timing his political strategy very, very well. |
