SD-17: Republican Poll Confirms Bell at 40%+ Support

More than 40% less... (0.00 / 0)

Reality is now that Stephanie Simmons is on the ballot no on really knows how much she may affect the Democratic vote.

As for Joan Huffman's internal polling I would question it because there is a real war among Republicans with the "mainstream" solidly backing Austen Furse. His list of endorsements of course is the usual cast of Bush and Perry characters. And Republicans do tend to "follow the leader."  So if Governor 39% is an indication of how many will do so, Austen Furse could end up with 39% of the Republican vote. Not sure what percentage that would give him in the race. But would probably ensure he was in the run-off.

And who knows. Some Democrats may vote for Joan Huffman according to the accusations by Jack Rains since he claims John Whitmire and others are quietly trying to get other Democrats to vote for her. I assume another conspiracy against Chris Bell although also it's a conspiracy against Austen Furse when you think about it. There certainly are a lot of conspiracies in this election. If nothing else hopefully we will have some more entertaining emails from Jack Rains.  And I guess more unentertaining posts by D. Davenport/Kunta/Whoever.

Maybe the campaigns will all be reduced to "So and So is trying to do me in so show them how you feel about dirty tricks and vote for me."  

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by: Baby Snooks @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 18:43:37 PM CDT

Conspiracies (0.00 / 0)

There have been Republican conspiracies in this race for months -- long before Bell entered the foray.

If you want to see a train wreck, check out the R's in this race. It's sad.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 20:02:41 PM CDT

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Jack Rains and Ron Wilson (0.00 / 0)

teaming up to tear down Chris Bell.  Politics makes such strange bedfellows.  Who'da thunk that illustrious duo's backroom shenanigans would be for the same reason?

And I'm not sure why you keep pushing Furse.  While he got some early support, alot of the Republican big guns are siding with Huffman, including some in the Perry/Bush crowd.  At best the Republican powerhouses are pretty divided.

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by: Joe @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 20:28:48 PM CDT

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Only one I'm pushing is Chris Bell (0.00 / 0)

I'm pushing Chris Bell simply because I would like to see a Democrat win a supposedly Republican district and see another Democrat in the Texas Senate.

If he turns out to be a disappointment at least the Democrats will know they can carry Republican districts.

As for Stephanie Simmons I still maintain she has no right to be on the ballot per her voting record. A judge, a Democratic judge, ruled otherwise.  I think it stinks.  

As for Austen Furse and Joan Huffman and their endorsements, you can check their websites. Maybe Joan Huffman hasn't updated hers. Maybe some of his supporters are now her supporters. She doesn't have many endorsements according to her website. And certainly not "big guns."

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by: Baby Snooks @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 21:38:19 PM CDT

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clarification (0.00 / 0)

Sorry, didn't mean to say you were supporting Furse, just that I think you're giving him too much credit.  They both had over a quarter million in June and there's been pretty significant pushback on the part of the Republican base when it comes to Furse.  I wouldn't be surprised if Huffman ends up whooping Furse in November.

I haven't bothered to look at their websites, but their ethics reports say a lot.  John Nau, $50k from Bob Perry, Drayton McClane, a healthy chunk of the Austin lobby with a Hotze or two sprinkled in for good measure means Huffman has some big Republican names in her corner.  That's just from a cursory glance at her report.

Either way it looks like this is playing out like the special election for Anna Mowry's seat last year. Republicans split up amongst 3 different candidates, hated each other, and helped put Democrat Dan Barrett in the State House.  

Not sure what Ms. Simmons' candidacy means at this point because I see it being hard for her to get off the ground.  All the Democratic money is going to Bell, and all the Republican money is being split between different candidates.  Unless Ron Wilson is willing to keep footing her campaign's bill, there aren't a bunch of big checks floating around to bail her out.  She'll likely be a Gene Kelly type name on the ballot that syphons off low information votes.  That said, I've been wrong before and it's likely I'm wrong again.

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by: Joe @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 22:11:46 PM CDT

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Huffman Poll Highlights Bell's Negative More than Anthing (0.00 / 0)

Come one - how can you leave out the meat of the Huffman release - of course Bell currently enjoys a dominant ballot position - if is just two years off spending millions on his gubernatorial race - what the press release highlighted, and you failed to post is that Bell's negative name id very high - and the ad wars have not even began - Bell is upside down with independents and even upside down in Houston, his hometown and the largest portion of SD17.  Bell very well may get 40% on election day - but any honest observer who read's the actual numbers will understand 40% is Bell's ceiling. I, above all, respect the gains D's are making in Texas, but withholding this type of info does nothing to advance the "Democratic" cause.

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by: texaspolitics @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 22:50:46 PM CDT

Hmmmm (3.00 / 1)

welcome to BOR. I hope you stick around, for more reasons than to kill the buzz on Democratic candidates. You'll have to forgive me, but after the last few days worth of SD 17 posts and the related revelations regarding the true identity of some of the posters, those with brand new shiny accounts who show up and immediately start stifling Democratic enthusiasm just may get a tad more scrutiny. Jus' sayin'.

LettersFromTexas.com

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by: Harold Cook @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 00:14:04 AM CDT

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The reality of Stephanie Simmons (0.00 / 0)

Reality is her campaign has already been conducted in the Houston Chronicle. Any feelings towards Ron Wilson aside the African-American community may vote for her overwhelmingly simply because she is an African-American and because someone tried to have her removed from the ballot and because they will assume it is because she is African-American.  Perception, and the deception it creates, is all in politics. Adding to the situation is Leticia Van De Putte's comment that Chris Bell is THE Democrat on the ballot.  Let's get real. We have white versus black versus brown now. Divide and watch the house fall.  

Just the same, no one knows who will vote for who and I doubt polls really mean much at this point. They will not influence the possibly deciding votes.  Some African-Americans may vote for Stephanie Simmmons. Some Democrats may vote for Joan Huffman. Some Republicans may vote for Chris Bell. So far, it's a toin coss.

I disagree about the negative name identification of Chris Bell.  Despite it all, some will continue to support him and quite a few will do so for the same reason I do which is simply he may be able to win a runoff if not the election itself.  It is a viable district for Houston and it is important to Democrats in Houston to have another state senator from the Houston area rather than another Republican.  And it will prove not all Republican districts are unwinnable. Some are.  It is also important to a growing number of Republicans who have accepted the reality which is that the party no longer really represents them or their values. And so they can hold their noses and hope they don't get sent to hell for continuing to support the party or they can help vote the Republicans out of office which in "Republican" districts will send a strong message to the party.  Lots of factors at work this year that polls really cannot measure.  

And if Chris Bell wins, well, maybe he will have learned that no one works well with Republicans. You either work for them as Ron Wilson has or you work against them.

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by: Baby Snooks @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 00:40:43 AM CDT

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If (3.00 / 1)

If you want to talk shop, you are more than welcome here.  Please however disclose who you work for or what you do so people know your professional paid bias.

This is the standard we hold our Democratic operatives to, this is the standard we will hold you to as well.  

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by: Matt Glazer @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 10:09:20 AM CDT

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Mr. Texaspolitics is nuts... (0.00 / 0)

...sure, they can put out false information about how high Chris Bell's negatives are.  He's the only one who has a negative because he's the only one in the race who has ever really done anything noteworthy.  But the stuff Huffman is putting out (and it's pretty funny she would put this poll out at all since it just confirms that Bell is crushing her) is clearly laced with bull----.  If this is the Republicans' idea of good news, I feel for them.  Bell needs to find 8 - 9 percent more support to win outright on November 4th.  Joan Huffman has to get 38 - 42 percent more support. Who would you rather be?

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by: politicsforjim @ Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 16:50:59 PM CDT

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