Austin City Council Early Vote Turnout Analysis

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Thu May 08, 2008 at 07:12 PM CDT

Keep in mind the following caveats

A) this doesn't include the Austin voters in Williamson county,

B) it undercounts African Americans because they are more difficult to code in the voter file,

C) it doesn't count new voters registered since April 1st (which are few in this election anyways), and

D) were comparing 2008 Early vote to the 2006 Total vote.

Also, the 2006 City of Austin (COA) was when Will Wynn, Mike Martinez, Sheryl Cole, and Brewster McCracken were elected.

		2008 Early Vote		2006 Total Voters	
Total COA	14949			52073	
						
65+		4560	30.5%		11837	22.7%
<25		404	2.7%		1475	2.8%
						
Dem History	10290	68.8%		22600	43.4%
Rep History	2235	15.0%		11810	22.7%
Mixed/None	2424	16.2%		17663	33.9%
						
3/3 City 	5994	40.1%		11138	21.4%
2/3 City	3261	21.8%		14893	28.6%
1/3 City	2396	16.0%		13510	25.9%
Older City	705	4.7%		2901	5.6%
No City		2593	17.3%		9631	18.5%
						
Male		6831	49.1%		24379	50.4%
Female		7093	50.9%		24037	49.6%
						
White		13460	90.0%		46774	89.8%
Black		348	2.3%		1444	2.8%
Hispanic	863	5.8%		3038	5.8%
Asian 	        278	1.9%		817	1.6%
						
HD 46 (Dukes)	1324	8.9%		5040	9.7%
HD 47 (Bolton)	2945	19.7%		10137	19.5%
HD 48 (Howard)	3401	22.8%		11745	22.6%
HD 49 (Naisht.) 4063	27.2%		13733	26.4%
HD 50 (Strama)	1977	13.2%		7761	14.9%
HD 51 (Rodrig.)	1239	8.3%		3657	7.0%

It's my guess that the percentages in the "previously voted in a city election" categories will even out Saturday as the 3/3C's are the people more likely to vote early. The demographic data is spot on (which says alot about how little minority turnout is driven in the election where the "black and brown" seats are chosen).

Older voter may have a slight tendency to vote early, but I'm guessing they will be a larger chunk this year. The vote seems more Democratic as well though if partisan history is tied to city election voting frequency, we could see that drop as well on Saturday. But it's quite a bit higher so that may benefit Cravey/Morrison in Place 4.