Indiana and North Carolina Thread

Throwing some darts... (0.00 / 0)

Indiana:
54-46, Clinton +8.

North Carolina:
58-42, Obama +16.

Lead stories:
Indiana: Obama gains amongst working class white males, but still can't win a majority.

North Carolina: Record African American turnout gives Obama the edge!

---

by: David O. @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:27:23 AM CDT

Things to look for... (0.00 / 0)

1) Who are the Republican crossovers voting for?  In Wisconsin, they went for Obama.  In Mississippi, they went for Clinton.  In Ohio, they were virtually even.  Which of these scenarios does Indiana most likely imitate?
2) The early vote turnout shows heavy in Obama counties, but that has been in the case in almost all of the states, including the ones in which he has lost.  So the question becomes how will he show on Election day compared to her?  Usually she gains a larger percentage of the undecided voters, but how will this play with his overwhelming youth support he is receiving.  Ultimately, I think the deciding factor will come from **gulp** Republican voters.
3) Obama has deployed a caucus like strategy to this state, a strategy that has proved very effective in the states where it has been utilized before.  Will it play into this race?
4) Clinton is not only tailoring her Indiana campaign to the rural and also blue collar vote, but also is hoping to pick up those Republican crossover votes with her summer gas tax issue.  Does the strategy work?

Like everything else in this race, both candidates have their very separate strengths and strategies.  I don't pretend to know which candidate will prevail, but I think whoever wins Indiana, the margin will 4% or less.  I don't see these huge margins that some of the polls are.

In North Carolina, Clinton's own campaign is conceding this state could be as much as a 15% loss, but they are probably trying to play the expectations game so I say Obama wins by 10.  

---

by: Casey Walker @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:30:11 AM CDT

The Gas Tax Issue (0.00 / 0)

This issue is interesting to me.  I wonder how many people will see the McCain/Clinton gas tax giveaway as a political pander and how many people will see it as "they relate to people like me."  I think Indiana certainly will go with this issue.  

---

by: David O. @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:54:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pander (0.00 / 0)

I certainly see it as pandering.  

Even if this congress managed to pass it Bush would never sign it, and it wouldn't pass with a veto-proof margin.  It's pandering at the highest order and something neither one could ever deliver on.  

Considering how much big oil has our government at a national and state level by the balls they would never, ever, pay the difference for any gas tax freeze.  

Yep, it's pandering  

Todd

"You must be the change you wish to see in the world." - Mahatma Gandhi

---

by: Todd Hill @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:18:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Of course it's a pander, but how will it play? (0.00 / 0)

The gas tax plays into existing negative images of both candidates. According to Obama, Clinton supports it because she'll say anything to get votes. According to Clinton, Obama opposes it because he's out of touch with the needs of real people. If you're already leaning towards one candidate, the description of the other sounds right.

But her proposal has been universally panned, and her "damn the economists, full speed ahead" comments are so over the top (from the erstwhile policy wonk!) that I can't believe that swing voters will buy the Clinton story. Some voters may forgive her for pandering and vote for her anyway (just as Obama voters shrug off Jeremiah Wright), but this can't possibly help her.  

---

by: LSadun @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:11:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama by 12 in NC, Clinton by 4 in IN (0.00 / 0)

Three things are working in Obama's favor in North Carolina. First, polls have consistently underestimated his performance in the South. Second, there's a pattern of voters starting with one candidate, flirting with the other, and coming home at the last minute. That helped Clinton in CA, OH, TX and PA, and is a large part of the story that "she's a strong closer". But it will help Obama in NC. Finally, there's the gas tax. Not only is it a boneheaded policy suggestion, but it's stupid politics, as it took the spotlight off of Obama's troubles and put it on Clinton's willingness to do anything to get elected.

Indiana is tougher. Things are tending slightly towards Obama as the gas tax pushes Wright off the headlines, but not enough for an Obama win.

A while back, I bet David Mauro a beer that Obama would carry NC by 20. I'm not going to win that bet, but maybe it'll be close.  

---

by: LSadun @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:53:03 AM CDT

I think Indiana voters (0.00 / 0)

are probably a little tired of hearing that they're stupid enough to fall for the gas tax pander, and this will push some folks over to Obama. All that will do, though, is make Indiana a dead heat in the end, or close to it. Let's call it Obama 50.5% and Clinton 49.5%. North Carolina? Obama by 10%.

---

by: davew @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 13:03:40 PM CDT

I'd love to think you're right... (0.00 / 0)

But we are the state in which 27 percent of Democratic primary voters thought they got to vote for a dead dancer for U.S. Senate a few weeks ago.

The gas tax thing is one of those "sounds great, but dumb" ideas which typically work really well in campaigns, but fail badly in the event that a government is unwise enough to follow up later with action. And, as they say, in campaigns if you're explaining, you're losing.

On the other hand, voters right now seem to be paying very close attention lately, so I guess we'll all find out together.

LettersFromTexas.com

---

by: Harold Cook @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 13:18:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My theory (0.00 / 0)

is that people don't really think they're voting for that Gene Kelly, but for some politician trading in on his famous name. They're simply not informed at all when they go in to vote and see a familiar name, and voila--27% for Gene Kelly. I mean, we had Jesse James as state treasurer for 30-some-odd years here in Texas, and that's just the most obvious example.

I could very well be full of shit. People might really be that stupid, although I'd certainly like to believe otherwise. I'd rather believe uninformed than stupid.  

---

by: davew @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 16:13:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They are Stupid and/or Crossover Republicans (0.00 / 0)

Locally, if they just had only read and blindly voted the endorsements made by either the Statesman or the Austin Chronicle they would just be uninformed voters at worst. Crossover Republicans have been voting for the weakest candidates to be the nominee in November in the Democratic Primaries for years.

The question is which group comprises the largest percentage of Gene Kelly voters? I believe that the stupid and malicious can share the same plane of existence. On a positive note, Gene Kelly only got 19.75% of the vote in Travis County. We should really worry about the counties where his percentage of the vote exceeded his overall 27% statewide

---

by: ssuits @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 21:07:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

the crossover Republican vote (0.00 / 0)

is greatly exaggerated, I think.

---

by: davew @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:18:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lucky 7s (0.00 / 0)

Clinton by 7 in Indiana, Obama by 7 in North Carolina.

---

by: Kedron Touvell @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 13:41:16 PM CDT

Clinton by 8 in IN, Obama by 4 in NC. (0.00 / 0)

---

by: David Mauro @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 13:42:30 PM CDT

Rocky Mountain Refreshment (3.00 / 1)

Now that it looks like you've won the free beer, you are just getting cocky. :)

Everyone have a great (and safe) results party tonight!!!

---

by: Casey Walker @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:13:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

haha that may be true (0.00 / 0)

we shall see soon enough :)

---

by: David Mauro @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:15:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

bets (0.00 / 0)

i was just about to say regarding david's post that i hope he didn't make any bets based on THAT prediction.

---

by: Sal D @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:23:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i was sure off in nc (0.00 / 0)

---

by: David Mauro @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 20:01:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

SC, AL, MS, LA, GA (0.00 / 0)

you should've learned your lesson from the above states. southern states with large african-american populations have pretty much been a lock for obama.

---

by: Sal D @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 14:57:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Kos is correct (0.00 / 0)

That could translate in pledge delegates as:

NC Obama-65, Clinton-50 Delegates 115 total
ID Obama-35, Clinton-37 Delegates 72 total
------------------------------

ID & NC May 6 Primaries

Obama- 100 Delegates
Clinton- 87 Delegates

Obama wins the day by 13

---

by: PaulR @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:02:44 PM CDT

He did predict (0.00 / 0)

Obama to win Texas popular vote by 12%.

---

by: David Mauro @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:09:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

NC Early vote (0.00 / 0)

NC is absolutely great for a political data hound. You can ftp the entire current voter file with vote history, as well as the detailed early vote stats. I got about 30 gigs worth of NC data just cause I'm a dope.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/

Age breakdown for early voting is about 40% under 40, 34% 41-65 and 25% >65. African Americans are almost 40%.
By congressional district early vote, the AA percentages are:
CD1 - 67%
CD2 - 53%
CD3 - 32%
CD4 - 26%
CD5 - 14%
CD6 - 24%
CD7 - 41%
CD8 - 48%
CD9 - 28%
CD10 - 25%
CD11 - 6%
CD12 - 70%
CD13 - 46%

CD11 had the 50K early votes, followed by CD1 with 47K. CD9 had the least with 13K.

---

by: George @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:07:55 PM CDT

At the end of the day, Obama will have won more delegates (0.00 / 0)

But the Cables will tell the story that they split the states, so it's a tie.

If, by some odd confluence of events, Obama wins NC and IN, the Clinton spin will be that Indiana doesn't matter.  

---

by: jelyon @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:19:46 PM CDT

Obama by 15% in NC, Clinton by 5% in Indiana (0.00 / 0)

Widening Obama's delegate lead, which is what really matters.

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

---

by: Timothy @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 14:36:35 PM CDT

Indiana & NC (0.00 / 0)

I'll go out on a limb:

NC: Obama +16.5%
IN: Obama +00.5%

---

by: markschultz @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 15:08:10 PM CDT

Indiana / NC (0.00 / 0)

Indiana

Clinton  56
Obama    44

NC

Obama    51
Clinton  49  

---

by: politicsforjim @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 16:12:28 PM CDT

Make your predictions for prizes at Texas Monthly (0.00 / 0)

http://www.texasmonthly.com/bl...

---

by: David Mauro @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 16:53:05 PM CDT

wow (0.00 / 0)

the Kossack really nailed it for once.

---

by: Kedron Touvell @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:58:48 AM CDT

yeah no kidding (0.00 / 0)

good job kos.

---

by: David Mauro @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:57:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]