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Correction: According to IVR, the initial numbers we posted were slightly off because they accidentally updated the linked values in the file they sent us without the correct file to which the values were linked. The corrections are reflected below. None of the numbers changed significantly enough to alter the analysis. We apologize for the confusion.
On Wednesday, April 16, the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (CAAAD) Asian American Progress PAC commissioned a poll with IVR Polls for the upcoming Austin City Council elections.
The results reveal few surprises. As with previous council races, most likely voters are currently undecided. In line with expectations, Council Member Leffingwell has a sizeable lead in the Place 1 race, the Place 3 race is the most competitive, and the six way race for the open seat in Place 4 is wide open with the largest percentage of undecided voters.
As with any poll, take the info with a grain of salt. Given the huge percentage of undecided voters and the fact that this poll was taken almost a month before the election, the numbers are almost guaranteed to change substantially. History has shown that most voters don't start paying attention to City Council elections or solidifying their decisions until the last few weeks before Election Day; very few people are thinking about this race right now.
If you like the work CAAAD has been doing to help Democrats win and would like to support our efforts on behalf of the Democratic Party, please visit our ActBlue page and leave us a tip!
IRV Polls surveyed 517 likely City Council voters on April 16. The survey's margin of error is +/- 4.3%.
Place 1
Lee Leffingwell 36.6% Lee Leffingwell 37.5%
Jason Meeker 12.1% Jason Meeker 13.7%
Allen Demling 4.8% Allen Demling 3.9%
Undecided 46.6% Undecided 44.9%
Place 3
Randi Shade 24.5% Randi Shade 26.4%
Jennifer Kim 23.5% Jennifer Kim 24.9%
Ken Weiss 11.4% Ken Weiss 11.3%
Undecided 40.6% Undecided 37.4%
Place 4
Cid Galindo 12.6% Cid Galindo 11.9%
Laura Morrison 11.2% Laura Morrison 10.3%
Jennifer Gale 9.3% Robin Cravey 10.2%
Robin Cravey 8.1% Jennifer Gale 8.0%
Ken Vasseau 4.3% Ken Vasseau 4.8%
Sam Osemene 3.6% Sam Osemene 4.8%
Undecided 51.1% Undecided 50.0%
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Here's the call script. The order of candidates was rotated for different calls to reduce any "first-name" bias issues.
IVR Polls is conducting a two minute survey of Austin political views. If you are a registered voter, please press 1 on your phone now.
Do you plan to vote in the city council elections on May tenth?
If you plan to vote in the election, press 1
If you do not plan to vote, press 2
If you are undecided, press 3
The candidates for city council place 1 are Lee Leffingwell, Jason Meeker and Allen Demling.
If you will vote for Lee Leffingwell, press 1
If you will vote for Jason Meeker, press 2
If you will vote for Allen Deming, press 3
If you are undecided, press 4
The candidates for city council place 3 are Jennifer Kim, Randi Shade and Ken Weiss.
If you will vote for Jennifer Kim, press 1
If you will vote for Randi Shade, press 2
If you will vote for Ken Weiss, press 3
If you are undecided, press 4
The candidates for city council place 4 are Robin Cravey, Jennifer Gale, Cid Galindo, Laura Morrison, Sam Osemene and Ken Vasseau.
If you will vote for Robin Cravey, press 1
If you will vote for Jennifer Gale, press 2
If you will vote for Cid Galindo, press 3
If you will vote for Laura Morrison, press 4
If you will vote for Sam Osemene, press 5
If you will vote for Ken Vasseau, press 6
If you are undecided, press 7 |
