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BOR Exclusive: TX Presidential County Convention Results

by: Phillip Martin

Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 00:28 PM CDT

TIP JAR - If you've enjoyed our coverage, please donate to TexBlog PAC and support our efforts across Texas!

The following is the reporting of the entire BOR staff. 

How to Submit Convention Results to Burnt Orange Report
Explaining the TX State Superdelegate System
State Superdelegate Tracker

E-mail results@burntorangereport.com to report results or County Chair preferences!

BOR Reports Results from County Conventions

TIMESTAMP - 2:00pm, 5/14/08








Clinton Delegates

Obama Delegates

Uncommitted Delegates

(of 7,641)

Conventions Reporting (of 284)













COUNTY-BY-COUNTY BREAKDOWN - Here is the link to the county by county results (realy, convention by convention) so you can see how each county/convention is voting. 

Remember, part of the reporting is based on the "state Superdelegates" we wrote about below. We'll be updating this throughout the day -- to see older "notes" from updates eariler in the day, click on the "there's more" link below.

Update by KT-  Marion County chair not attending convention so total count drops by one. SDEC from SD-1 is for Clinton. 

Update by KT-  Gregg County has new chair but they support Clinton as well so no change.

Update by KT- Brewster County Chair for Obama. 

Update by KT- Newton goes 4-2 for Clinton, Freeson goes 3-2 for Obama, Montague 3-3, and Goliad 2-2 split. Updated State Superdelegate tracker to make note of county chairs where vacant or noted they can't attend state convention. These votes drop out of the total and cannot be replaced, hence why the "total number of state convention delegates" number has fallen slightly over time. 

Update by KT-  An error in the file had too many delegates reported for Harris County district 13 overall. This has been resolved, but reduced Obama's count by around 17 delegates. 

Update by KT - McMullen's 1 delegate is uncommitted.

4:00 pm by KT - Burleson County reported 4-3 for Clinton.

2:00am by KT - We added Pecos County back in due to a report from the County Chair, though it is lacking 2 of its 5 reported delegates. We reported the missing Collin District 30 delegate for Clinton. 

3:00 pm by KT - Willacy County reported 4-0 for Clinton. At this point, Obama leads by 800 state delegates with 486 remaining of which 272 are outstanding "state superdelegates" (mostly county chairs). 



9:15pm by KT -  Clinton picked up a state superdelegate- Sabine County Chair.

8:00pm by KT - While there aren't really any county updates, some refinement of the vote. We removed Pecos County from the totals as it was under-reported and we can't verify. Additionally, the max number of delegates has dropped by 6. Four of those are due to counties that have reported having no county conventions; since they reported none, we removed their delegates but counted them as 'reported'. The two additional drops are for Roberts and Armstrong Counties which lack County Chairs. The McClennan county chair was incorrectly marked as for Clinton when he is neutral which is now reflected.

4:15pm by Phillip - Updated 2 counties, and fixed some numbers that were backwards. Still 37-30. Of the 493 delegates not reported, around 280 of them are "state superdelegates." Just a heads up.

2:25pm by Phillip -  We had a little hiccup with an update, but we're all set again. As you should notice, we know have 70% of counties reporting. I was able to track down about 20-25 additional small counties over the last hour or so (check the county-by-county spreadsheet for the latest updates). Surprisingly, though Clinton did have some good numbers, Obama also won some, too. The only thing is that even a 4-3 or 12-9 win for Obama in these smaller counties is lesser than a 56-44% win, which is keeping him in the 55% threshhold and thus --- as we reported earlier --- is still likely to lead to a 37-30 delegate split when we have all the numbers in.

But at 93%, we're getting pretty close -- so a delegate win looks pretty solid for Obama. I'll add that I tried to verify some numbers out of Bexar County, but they won't be releasing those until Friday...so we have to go with what we got until then.

11:45am by Phillip - The Houston Chronicle reported a 58-0 win for Obama in Fort Bend SD 13, so we adjusted our totals from earlier. In the interest of fairness, this increase barely (by about 5 delegates) would make Obama's projected lead 38-29; however, we still project that with many of the small counties out still, and the "state Superdelegates" still out, that it will be 37-30 Obama. Stay tuned.

9:55am by KT - Crockett 2-0 for Clinton. It appears that 1/4th of the remaining ~100 conventions had only 1 delegate and nearly half had 2 or less. The largest unreported counties at this time are Guadalupe (28), Navarro & Polk (16 each), Caldwell, Cherokee, and Van Zandt (14 each), Upshur (12), and San Jacinto & Titus (10). 

8:50am by KT- Collin County has reported giving Obama a 117-62 win (with 1 undetermined). Hunt reported an 11-11 split. Colorado broke 5-2 for Obama with Anderson reporting 9-5 in Obama's favor.  Lampasas split 2-2 with one uncommitted. Both Clinton and Obama gained a state superdelegate but Clinton lost 1 superdelegate due to the removal of a county chair who was defeated in the primary.

Over 3/5th of County Conventions have now reported representing over 90% of state convention delegates.  Of the remaining ~700 delegates, nearly 276 are uncommitted state superdelegates. We hope to ID many of these as we push to get the vote from the 100 or so small counties which haven't reported. The chair of Hudspeth County (1 delegate) wrote in and report they had no county convention.

2:15am by KT - Reports from folks in Collin say it may be another 1-3 hours. As an aside, why is it that most of the counties that being with the letter C haven't reported?

12:10am - Phillip - Still waiting on Collin County...

11:25pm by Phillip - Updated. Fixed a typo. Sorry, late nights.

10:25pm by Phillip -  We updated one "state Superdelegate" for Obama. Other than that, I wanted to let everyone know that prelimiary (not final) reports from Collin County are that Obama won 117 delegates to 63. We'll wait up for final go, but if that's accurate (or anywhere close), as large a win as that is for Obama, it only increases his % lead by three-tenths, only then with 90% reporting. In other words -- even with those Collin County numbers -- what you see above is going to be pretty darn close to the final split, give or take a few tenths of a percentage point.

9:00pm by Phillip - Two counties came in, 1 delegate each for Obama and Clinton. From our comments section about Collin County (180 delegates), time-stamped about 20 minutes ago:

We have started the convention but we've been waiting hours for the tabulation of the percentages for at-large delegates.  Still waiting.

We are watching a really good Republican movie about how they think and how we should react/teach to them.

We have only got as far as reading the rules.  I'll report back as soon as we get to some significant step. 

7:20 pm by Michael - Tom Green came in 21-3 for Clinton. 

6:45 pm by KT - Walker came in 11-3 for Obama.

6:00pm by KT - Not a lot more to report. I'm about to send out some emails to outlying chairs to garner additional data. Collin County has not yet reported.

4:40pm by KT - Some people had pointed out the % of delegates reported seemed to be off by a couple tenths of a percent. The % was right but in correcting the total number of delegates counties and superdelegates are sending to the state convention, the state delegate total increased by 17 to 7,666. They should be in sync now. 

3:18pm by Phillip -  SD 7 in from Harris went 124 Obama, 72 Clinton. We're now at 86% of delegates in, with at least 4% of the remaining delegates coming from the "state Superdelegates." The remaining 124 county conventions will only account for 10% of the delegates -- and Collin County, which convened today, will be a significant portion of that. Time to start analyzing the results...

1:10pm by Phillip -  Two more counties, nothing large. We're going to have to start calling County Chairs, so don't expect large updates for several hours (until we can track down SD 7 in Harris and until Collin comes in later). Plus, the UT basketball game is about to start. Best help you can do for us -- help us maintain the current superdelegate breakdown on our spreadsheet by e-mailing us (results@burntorangereport.com) any missing assignments on that sheet.

12:10pm - Phillip - Angelina County (Obama 24, Clinton 13) the only large county to report. But here's what I realized: one of the largest blocks of votes left is the "state Superdelegates" -- they account for 285 remaining delegates, or approximately 4% of the remaining delegates. You can track the current superdelegate breakdown on our spreadsheet -- if you're a County Chair or SDEC member and don't see your name there, e-mail us at results@burntorangereport.com. The "state superdelegates" -- along with Collin County and SD 7 in Harris County -- is the largest block of votes out there.

11:10am - Phillip - Morning! Lots of new numbers. The big ones I added were Tarrant SD 10 (Obama 208, Clinton 104) and Jefferson SD 4 (Obama 52, Clinton 26). Tarrant finished at 4am, as did Bexar SD 25 and several others. We also added about a dozen smaller counties, which broke largely for Clinton (Bee was 14-0, Clinton). In fact, Clinton had so many small counties go her way, that despite Obama's large wins in Tarrant and Jefferson, his lead only changed by one-hundredth of a percentage point. For what it's worth. You can read the county-by-county breakdown for the most detailed results.

MIDNIGHT - FINAL UPDATE OF NIGHT - We're all heading to bed at midnight, but here's some numbers to consider:

  • The Associated Press had around 1,800 delegates reported tonight. We've brought you three times that amount, documented it all, and have over 72% of the delegate totals across the state. That's the value of a people-powered movement.
  • Just today, we had 197,643 visits, and 221,185 page views -- by far the most traffic our site has ever seen in a single day. That's also the power of a people-powered movement.
  • Senator Obama is still ahead, but we won't project anything. Our latest report was from Tarrant County, SD 12(108 Obama, 84 Clinton), but there is still more from Tarrant and Collin County out, not to mention half of the state (albeit mostly smaller counties).
  • We expect that the next 10% of Counties that report will get us to around 90% of total delegates. Then, tomorrow, we'll start calling County Chairs and SDEC members to get the rest of the numbers.

Thanks for being a part of this wonderful process tonight. We'll be back strong tomorrow, with more numbers, tons of analysis, and lots of stories from the conventions across the state. Click below the thread to read our analysis throughout the night.

Good night, and remember -- Texas plays Memphis tomorrow in the Elite Eight. Hook 'em Horns!

--The Staff of Burnt Orange Report

11:35pm by Phillip -  We adjusted SD 13 slightly, adding 17 delegates to account for the "at-large" portion. I used the numbers from the Houston Chronicle. What's really funny is that, despite the massive amount of documentation we provided here tonight, they still use the AP's numbers --- which show a relative split between Obama and Clinton at 933 (Clinton) and 937 (Obama). That means the Associated Press is only 3,700 delegates behind us! Show some love to us bloggers for better reporting, and donate to TexBlog PAC!

11:30pm by KT-  The largest remaining conventions are Senate Districts 10 & 12 in Tarrant County (504 delegates) which lean Obama, Bexar District 26 (210), Harris District 7 (196), Collin District 8 (163), and Jefferson (78). 

10:25pm by Phillip - El Paso just came in huge for Clinton. In SD 19 she won 7-0, but in SD 29 Senator Clinton won 157-18. Huge pick-up for her and her campaign. Also, KT (our publisher) called the McLennan County Chair, and our official report is 47-34, Obama.

10:10pm by David - We have a suprising change in McLennan. The nominations chair has reported the final tally is Clinton 41 - Obama 40.

9:50pm by Phillip -  Dallas came in: SD 23 went 306-67 for Obama, and SD 16 went 150-105 for Obama. Lots, lots of more county updates -- keep checking out our spreadsheet for the latest county-by-county results!

9:31 pm by Michael - We have 100 reported conventions!  The 100th was Fort Bend SD13, where Obama won 41-17.

9:14 pm by Michael - We just updated the numbers and we have 97 conventions reported.  Also, thanks to those who told us about our spreadsheet error in the Fort Bend part of SD17. 

8:34 pm by Matt - Our numbers: 121,206 hits today, 138,836 page views, 7 new donors to TexBlog PAC, $415 raised.  Feel free to donate to help us win the 5 seats needed to take back the Texas House and keep checking for more updates.

8:33pm by Phillip - Just updated the numbers, which include SD 17 in Fort Bend (thanks Martha!) where Obama won 44-20. I'm going to take a dinner break -- keep checking in, because as some of the large conventions end and other folks in rural areas start reporting and e-mailing us, we should have a lot more results in. Stay tuned!

8:01pm by Phillip -  New numbers -- Obama had a huge jump with some Dallas and Harris County conventions reporting (check the spreadsheet). We'll see what happens here on out...

8:00pm by Phillip - AHH THE SITE CRASHED. :) Sorry! In case that happens again, just leave for 10 minutes -- it'll fix itself faster than if everyone re-loads.

7:57pm by David - I just received word that Obama failed to meet the threshold in the SD27 portion of Hidalgo and had 18% of the signins in the SD20 portion.

7:05pm by Phillip -  Lots of counties in (check the spreadsheet), but the big one is Travis -- 313 for Obama, 144 for Clinton.

6:25pm by Phillip - Two Dallas County SDs reported (8&9). Trying to get some more official numbers from some that have been reported online, and will update again when we do.

6:12 p.m. by Matt- We have 78 donors online to TexBlog PAC.  Want to make it 80?

6:03pm by David - Duval is Clinton 12 - Obama 0 and Maverick is Clinton 12 - Obama 1. 

5:50pm by Phillip -  The Texas Observer blog has a good post about what's going on in Tarrant County right now. The DMN blog has 4-5 writers constantly complaining about how they can't wait to go home -- this is the same DMN that wrote an editorial complaining that the caucus process took too long on March 4. You know, because we're not doing anything important, like, oh, I don't know -- choosing the next President. (Slaps forehead). 

5:45pm by Phillip - Sorry -- sometimes a couple of us are updating posts at the same time, so "updates" get lost. As Michael said earlier, the part of Dallas County that contains SD 8 just came in big for Obama, 51-36.

5:38 p.m. by Matt-  With about 18% reporting, we are still waiting for the state's largest counties to verify the results.  That means we are waiting for Tarrant, Travis, most of Harris and others.  That means we have between 10 to 12 counties with more than 200 delegates out standing.  In addition, we are waiting for El Paso and Hidalgo with 170 and 115 delegates respectively.  We are in for a long night.

5:30 p.m. Update by Matt- Here is a traffic report for everyone to enjoy.  as of 5:32 p.m. we have had 64,061 hits and 76,548 page views.  Wow! 

5:17pm Update by Michael - Harvey Rice of the Houston Chronicle reports that Harris SD11's convention voted for Obama with percentages of 51.7% to 48.3%.  This convention sends 89 delegates to the state convention.  As with Hays County, if anyone has the specific state convention delegate numbers, that would be great.

4:45pm Update by Phillip - Nueces County just came in big for Clinton (81-35). 

4:40pm Update by David - Orange has just reported Clinton 21 - Obama 9. 

4:25pm Update by Phillip - Bowie (Obama 18, Clinton 14) and Haskell (Clinton 2, Obama 1) and Llano (Clinton 5, Obama 2) just came in. I actually wanted to take a minute to thank our donor -- $100! -- to the TexBlog PAC. If you like our reporting, please --- donate so we can help take back Texas for Democrats! Read about our PAC to learn more.

4:10pm Update by Phillip - Kauffman, Kendall, Mason, Lee, Hamilton, and all of Smith Counties now added. See totals in the spreadsheet.

4:00pm Update by Phillip - Galveston County just came in, where in terms of delegates to the state convention SD 11 went 57-37 for Obama and SD 17 went 9-8 for Obama.

3:50pm Update by Phil - Harris County, Senate District 15 just reported. Huge for Obama -- of the 1,431 in attendance, 1,056 for Obama, and 375 for Clinton. With 217 delegates to split, that means Obama got 160 to 57 over Clinton in Harris County, SD 15.

3:30 Update by Matt- Some of you may notice a lag when the page loads, please be patient with us.  We are seeing a bit of lag due to the high traffic today. In the past hour we have had over 10,000 hits and 12,000 page views, and our server is dragging a little bit. Like election day, we may see a site crash momentarily. If that happens, we will get back up as fast as possible. Please resist the temptation to hit refesh again and again and again.  Please hold off on calling one of us or e-mailing us, this will only delay us from getting the problem fixed.... 

Thank you for your patience and thank you for reporting your results to us.  Y'all are showing how strong our community is today. Oh, and by the way, today over 6 million people have seen Burnt Orange Report since we moved over to SoapBlox.  That is simply incredible!

3:15pm Update by Phillip - Put the county-by-county link back up -- sorry, don't know why that went down. Again, we'll update that frequently. Harris County SD 15 has around 4,000 people in it, and they should be reporting in about an hour or so. Travis County has 10,000 people at the convention, and they're still chugging along. As we said originally -- lots of numbers to still come in, and we may spend some time tomorrow tracking down numbers from rural counties.

2:58pm Update by Michael - (Clinton-Obama): Palo Pinto (8-1) and Smith SD1 (4-20).

2:32pm Update by David -  (Clinton-Obama): Starr (23-0), Grayson (9-29) Grayson (21-17), Grimes (6-2), Bowie (14-18), Hartley (1-0).

2:07pm Update by Phillip - Here are the conventions in so far (Clinton - Obama split): Blanco (2-2), Brazoria SD 17 (9-13), Brooks (4-0), Dimmit (5-0), Donley (1-0), Ector (10-5), Edwards (1-0), Gonzales (3-2), Hopkins (7-6), Kenedy (1-0), Moore (1-1), San Augustine (2-3), Terrell (0-1), Tyler (6-2), Webb (51-0), Wheeler (1-0).

1:50pm Update by David - Clinton has swept Webb County 51-0. In Ector County, where the precint caucus results were C 55, O 45, Clinton has picked up 10 delegates to 5 for Obama.

1:15pm Update by David - In Webb County, it appears that Obama has not met the threshold and Clinton could carry all 51 delegates.  While Clinton had expectations to do very well in Webb, a complete shut out would come as a surprise.

12:45pm Update by Phillip - So far, the only counties that have reported are San Augustine, Moore, and Edwards -- with a whopping 4-4 split of Obama and Clinton delegates. They are still signing in delegates in Harris and Travis County, I've been told. 

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Texas counties (3.00 / 1)
San Augustine, Moore and Edwards all went big for Clinton
in the primary, so this looks like a good result.

As an Obama supporter in Iowa (0.00 / 0)
It was very satisfying for us that day - because, as many know, we went into our Iowa County Conventions with national delegate estimates of 16 Obama, 15 Clinton and 14 Edwards. When the day was done, the new Iowa estimates were 25 Obama, 14 Clinton, 6 Edwards.

I am hopeful that will be a similar case in Texas.

[ Parent ]
Iowa, where all has begun (0.00 / 0)
Thank You, Iowa!  

[ Parent ]
Brazoria for Clinton? I think the numbers on the spreadsheet are incorrect. (0.00 / 0)
Can someone check this with BOR?

[ Parent ]
Can someone look at Hutchinson again? (0.00 / 0)
It shows Clinton 3 Obama 1.  On election day it was Obama 75%, Clinton 25%.  Was just wondering if maybe it got put in the wrong column.

[ Parent ]
The March 4 "result" is only 11% (0.00 / 0)
reported for Hutchinson County. Most likely it from only one of the precinct conventions. If that is the case the 3-1 for Clinton from yesterday looks consistent when compared to other data from Hutchinson County.

[ Parent ]
Percent of votes in (0.00 / 0)

I'm keeping track of this anyway for my DKos open thread, but wouldn't it make sense to put a percentage into that empty cell in the table?

48 delegates is 0.63% of 7,649. To me, that's a percentage that's at least as important than the 1.06% directly to its right.

Good call (0.00 / 0)
Will fix that w/ the next update.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Why is this taking so long? (0.00 / 0)

It seems more than a little absurd that, the day after these conventions took place, fully 120 out of 284 conventions still have not tabulated and reported results.

Not to be rude, but...

What in the hell are these people doing?

Does the Texas Democratic Party not have a mechanism to force conventions to tabulate and publicly report their results in a timely manner?

This is looking like as much of a disaster as the version 1.0


[ Parent ]
Were you there? (0.00 / 0)
NOTHING has been done right.  My caucus lasted until after midnight, and I knew the convention would be worse, but I had no idea how bad.

They knew we had at least 2000 people coming to our location.  It takes about 2 minutes to check each person in.  Yet they only had 6 lists.  So rough math would tell us that it would take them 2000*2/6 = 666.66 minutes = about 11.5 hours to check people in.  Apparently they don't do math.  They started at 8:30AM and planed on finishing by 2PM.  They were finished checking people in around 6PM.  People who were in line at 8:30 were checked in around 1-1:30.  They also lost about 500 names so many of those people had to wait in another line to verify their identity.

Among tons of other business, they had 52 resolutions to vote on, 3 speakers for and against, each given 2 minutes.  Lets pretend there was zero over run time, zero confusion, zero transition and voting was infinitely fast.  That means resolutions would take 52*6 minutes = 312 minutes = 5 hours 12 minutes.  

They hadn't even started when I left around 7 something.  A friend of mine, who's convention was running faster than mine, stayed for the whole thing and didn't get home until 4AM.

[ Parent ]
County Spreadsheet? (0.00 / 0)
Will there eventually be a spreadsheet of the final results in each County/SD, for mapmaking purposes?

Thanks so much, this is a wonderful service.

Hopefully (0.00 / 0)
If we can get enough counties in...but yes, we're tracking county by county.  

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
I'm in Iowa also...and closely watching this... (3.00 / 1)
Our Iowa County Convention was amazing, and I'm so excited for Texans as they go through their process today.  As an Obama supporter at the Iowa County Convention, I was thrilled to see many Hillary supporters express discontent with her "kitchen sink" approach, and her endorsement of McCain over Obama.   Since our Iowa County Convention--which was only a couple of weeks ago--Clinton has gone supernova with her attacks.  I really hope, for the good of our party, that Texans break for Obama.

Today will be a good day, because Texas will most likely be officially called for Obama today.  The primary results, combined with today's County Convention results will give us a total in Obama's favor.  

Furthermore, if the numbers show that Obama gained support in the past couple of weeks--and had a net gain of delegates (since the Texas caucus) like he did in Iowa--what a major coup.

This could be a major psychological win for Obama.  Hillary will feel the air coming out of the balloon, as it becomes apparent that she didn't win Texas after all.  Her over-the-top Texas/Ohio post-party will look a tad absurd.

Today will be interesting that's for sure.

Fort Bend County (0.00 / 0)
My husband is an Obama delegate for Fort Bend County.  He was supposed to be done at 12, but called me then saying it was going to take a couple hours longer because they were still signing people in. He sounded really excited.  In the primary, our county finished somewhere in the 60% (I think 63%)for Obama, and my precinct caucus finished 72% for Obama.  I am a Republican who supports Obama.  My husband is a die-hard Democrat.  I find it all very exciting.  I hope Texas does its best for Obama!

How can there be a shut out with At large Delegates??? (0.00 / 0)
With the at large delegates how is it possible for a shut out?  The credentialling committee is supposed to used the At large Applications to balance out the delegates to make them refelct the percentage total.  Hillary is going  to be shut out in my district so it is EAST for there to be a shut out if you only have one delegate or two delegates in your precinct and I on't know how many dems voted for Chris Bell in Webb county.  

[ Parent ]
Whoa... (0.00 / 0)
Which conventions have just delivered for HRC?  Was this Webb?

Here is a list by County as they are coming in... (0.00 / 0)
Umm ... (2.00 / 1)
I think those are the March 4th results.

[ Parent ]
No, that appears to be the incomplete precinct (0.00 / 0)
conventions results from March 4.

[ Parent ]
Results Convention by Convention (0.00 / 0)
We've got a spreadsheet up where you can follow along:


Sorry it took so long to get that up - as I wrote in the post, we'll try and update it every 30-45 minutes or so.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

Update from my husband at a Fort Bend Convention (2.50 / 2)
My husband just called to say Obama won 65% to 35% in his convention, but they are still electing at large delegates or something of the sort.

Interesting to note:  A Clinton supporter and head of the Clinton campaign in Fort Bend showed up to a convention that was NOT EVEN HER OWN to speak on behalf of Clinton.  The chairperson called her behavior inappropriate and had security escort her out.  

Sorry about the prior website.  An Obama person sent that to me and I passed it on without really studying it.

Is it just me, or does... (0.00 / 0)
Grayson county seem rather peculiar? Clinton was decisively winning that primary and caucus before, but now Obama has gotten a huge majority of delegates from there, does anyone know what happened?

Our original report was incorrect (3.00 / 1)
Obama did not carry Grayson. Clinton won 21-17

[ Parent ]
Ok (0.00 / 0)
Thanks for the correction :)

[ Parent ]
That would (0.00 / 0)
have definitely been a "shocker."

[ Parent ]
Bexar, Dallas, Harris, Tarrant (0.00 / 0)
Any idea when reports may be coming in for SDs in Bexar, Dallas, Harris and Tarrant Counties?

Later... (0.00 / 0)
Harris just got done counting in one of their districts, and I heard there was some credentials issues in another.

As we said originally when we launched this...patience will be your friend.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Don't forget your tip jar! (0.00 / 0)
This is always a good time to help keep you guys writing

TexBlog PAC! (0.00 / 0)

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Erath County (0.00 / 0)
from a family member there it went 6-3 Clinton..In line with Caucus results from March 4th.

Who has a family member in Erath County?I (0.00 / 0)
I live in Austin but I'm from Stephenville.

[ Parent ]
That is me (0.00 / 0)
M family still lives there and I graduated High School in 1994.  

How about yourself?  Do you still have family there?

[ Parent ]
Obama Loses Delegates in District 23 (Dallas County) (0.00 / 0)
Precinct 3516 had 44 Obama delegates, but due to a credentialing challenge had to do a redo (Dallas Morning News, Gromer Jeffers, Jr. Trailblazer Blog).

District 23: How challenges change numbers

3:51 PM Sat, Mar 29, 2008

Gromer Jeffers Jr.

Dallas precinct 3516 caucused on March 4 and voted 44 delegates for Barack Obama and four delegates for Hillary Clinton.

On Saturday that district faced a challenge and had to hold another caucus. The new totals: 29 delegates for Barack Obama and four delegates for Hillary Clinton.

The Clinton people, perhaps mindful of the challenge, came back out. Obama lost delegates. [Emphasis added.]

That's quite a difference.

Yeah, but... (0.00 / 0)
I mean, it is. But at the same time, you got to consider that he's lost 15 votes out of the several thousand that are coming out of District 23.

Shows the process works well. :)

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Hmm... (0.00 / 0)
Maybe it does. If this one precinct changed by 15, I just wonder how many other precincts will have been challenged today.

[ Parent ]
Looks like Bowie is staying consistent with (0.00 / 0)
caucus results.

Guess those 62.8% of Bowie voters who picked Clinton had something else to do on election night.

Primary vote totals, Webb (0.00 / 0)
If you want to see the county by county primary vote totals to compare against today's delegate totals, go here:

By the way, how did Webb county go 51-0 for Clinton today?  It went 77-21 in the primaries.  Is there some sort of supermajority rule?  No Obama delegates showed up?  Anyone have the story on Webb county?

Threshold (0.00 / 0)
15% is needed to get any delegates. If a candidate has less than that, then they get zero.  Apparently there's a proposal in SD23 (Dallas) to waive that rule, since Clinton may not reach 15% there.

[ Parent ]
You guys are great!! (0.00 / 0)
Your tip jar needs to be at the TOP of the page

Some results from American-Statesman, DMN, Chron (0.00 / 0)

Those results alone take it to 47-53 overall.

Number crunching (0.00 / 0)
I get 35/52 in Dallas 8, thanks to favorable rounding.

(87 * 592) / 996 = 51.7108434

[ Parent ]
That's correct (0.00 / 0)
Not the 36/51

[ Parent ]
Raw data from SD10 (3.00 / 2)
I was on credentials in SD10 and calculated the delegate totals for our convention. Obama won in delegates elected at the precinct conventions, 65.5% - 34.5%. Exactly how that will play out in state delegates is hard to predict. There were many folks who left before the credentials report was finally read at 5:30.

BTW, I think there's a miniscandal brewing regarding the poor quality of delegate lists returned to us from Austin. The feeling was that if we tried to use their list, a riot might erupt -- the data was that poor. I worked continuously from 9:30 yesterday morning until 5:30 this afternoon, save for a five hour window to sleep last night, and the result was still chaos. It's disheartening.

More number crunching (3.00 / 1)
That would be 204-108, but it's probably unwise to use that figure without knowing who stuck around.

Also am I reading some of these reports correctly, that if you were listed as a Clinton delegate on the lists, you have to caucus for Clinton??

[ Parent ]
That second part is false (0.00 / 0)
Maybe a rumor circulated on the floor, but I can say that nobody on credentials was suggesting anything of the sort.

My guess is that the early departures would result in a net gain for Obama. Older delegates tended to vote Clinton, and those were the ones who didn't tolerate the long waits well.

[ Parent ]
Really? (0.00 / 0)
Younger and less experienced people are the least patient. So, I guess that means I totally disagree. :)

[ Parent ]
Wow, that's almost exactly how it turned out (0.00 / 0)
Precinct conventions: 65.5% - 34.5%

District convention: 66.6% - 33.3%

Out of all that mess, we actually ended up with a reasonable result. Thank $DEITY.

[ Parent ]
Allocation of national delegates (0.00 / 0)
Are the national delegates allocated all on a proportional statewide basis, or is there some other breakdown? Can we add a national delegate estimate to the table at the top?

2008 Democratic Convention Watch

We will later (0.00 / 0)
With so many counties out, we don't want to start re-doing that math. But basically, all it will be is 67 x the percentage each candidate has...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
So it looks like (0.00 / 0)
Obama is going to come out worse from the county conventions than he did from the caucus?

Or is this about which districts have reported and which haven't?

Lots of large districts/counties still out - n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Hard to tell (0.00 / 0)
More often than not Obama seems to be doing a few points worse than he did on Caucus night. Not sure how it will all shake out. Right now it would be a 34-33 split.

[ Parent ]
At last, Travis Ct Results! (0.00 / 0)
link here


Hell YES!!!!! (0.00 / 0)
I love Travis county!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Doing My Part For The Left,Left Of The Rainbow

[ Parent ]
Harris 6 results (0.00 / 0)

It might be 81-45 depending on the rounding.

link here

Harris 6 corrected (0.00 / 0)
I think you mean 80/66 or 81/65, since it's 146 total.

[ Parent ]
Bastrop County results (0.00 / 0)
Total delegates awarded SD 18: 32

Clinton: 13 37% of the available delegates.

Obama: 19 67% of the available delegates.

This includes the At large delegates.  The split from the caucus was 60/40 Obama so it worked out pretty close to how the math came from the caucus.

Fort Bend (0.00 / 0)
The update has Obama winning SD17 in Fort Bend 44-20 but the spreadsheet shows it 44-20 for Clinton?

Did Obama win Fort Bend SD 17? (0.00 / 0)
According to the update by Phillip, Obama won 44-20 but it is entered in the spreadsheet as Clinton 44 - Obama 20. Which is it?

I don't think (0.00 / 0)
SD 9 includes Denton. It's listed that way on the spreadsheet. :-)

Of course (0.00 / 0)
You're correct. Sorry. I was thinking Dallas County when I looked down the list. I'd forgotten the very odd configuration. Thanks. :)  

[ Parent ]
Hello (4.00 / 2)
Long time lurker.

First time poster.  

Displaced Texan.

Donated to the PAC.


And (3.00 / 1)
just linked the BlogPac in a DKos diary to challenge the folks to get to $1000.

You can do it!!

[ Parent ]
Today (0.00 / 0)
We are at 16 donors at $740.01 raised. Y'all are incredible! I continue to be amazed by our community.  

[ Parent ]
Dallas 2 Results (0.00 / 0)

link here

That takes it to 58.5-41.5, with Dallas 16, Dallas 23, Collin, Denton, Jefferson, Harris 4, Harris 6, Harris 7, and Fort Bend 13, left to report as far as urban districts. Harris 6 went 52-48 Clinton, but everything else was a solid win for Obama. He's probably looking at just under a 60-40 split with 55% the votes counted ... but almost ALL of his votes will have been counted at that point. Clinton would have to win the rest of the stat 60-40. If they split East Texas, he's almost certain to win unless he's not viable in all three of the big border counties (Hidalgo, Cameron, El Paso). Tough to tell what the final margin is without more rural results.

Oh wow. (0.00 / 0)
I missed Tarrant County. That's another 500 Obama delegates. Clinton would have to win the rest of the state 66-32, and with some small counties awarding only two delegates, it may not happen.

[ Parent ]
What did Obama pull pct wise on eday at the caucuses? (0.00 / 0)
Whats the difference between now and then?

March 4th estimates (0.00 / 0)
The March 4th estimates were 56.7% for Obama in the caucuses..

As of 100 conventions reporting, he is at 56.97%

[ Parent ]
SD-17, Harris County (3.00 / 2)
rolling large for Obama (looks like about 62, 63%, maybe more).

Chair, secretary, credentials committee dominated by Clinton supporters, tried to thwart, to no avail.

Matt Stiles posted an update:


My precinct started at 20-11 Obama, picked up two more on the lack of turnout by Clinton folks, went onto the floor this morning 22-9 Obama.  Obama strong, organized, and efficient in this SD.

Scott Hochberg, out next Senator from SD-17 spoke earlier:

"I walked in," he said of the gymnasium. "I saw points of order from the back, and I thought I was in the Texas Legislature."


Too exhausted to post any more tonight.

Afflicting the comfortable via...

I was at the "front mic" (0.00 / 0)
having to read straight from the TDP rules a number of times.

And, yes, I called it the "front mic". Scott would have been proud. :)

P.S. to the TDP: Any way you can make sure the folks running these conventions next time are very, very aware of TDP rules? I'm not talking about the Chair of the Convention (although that in itself would be a GREAT start), but also the Credentials and Nominations Chair?

And, have a real, live, trained Parliamentarian at each convention. Pretty please?

[ Parent ]
Oh, WORD. (0.00 / 0)
"And, have a real, live, trained Parliamentarian at each convention. Pretty please?"

Can I second that? And call for a vote? ;)

[ Parent ]
Trail blazers blog has results from sd 23 and 16 in Dallas... (3.00 / 1)
Jeesh! (0.00 / 0)
Don't they know how to report over on Trail Blazers? Who cares about the percentage - it's the delegate count that matters!

[ Parent ]
By the rules the delegate count should break down that way... (0.00 / 0)
the at larges are supposed to break so that the overall delegation mirrors the percentage.

[ Parent ]
my precinct in sd17 (0.00 / 0)
there were 10 Clinton and 8 Obama present for the vote. somehow, the Obama won after Clinton's side nominated 2 people. Talk about a complete lack of strategy, though not that it matters cause the at large make the numbers work overall.

Brazoria County seems way off from (0.00 / 0)
the original caucus results. Are you sure it's right?

did... (0.00 / 0)
people change sign-ins. IN Wood County, we had two Clinton delegates switch to Obama, but Clinton still carried the day 7-4. The convention voted a motion to balance the delegation by percentage w/ the caucus results.  

Vince Leibowitz

[ Parent ]
let me clarify... (0.00 / 0)
I meant, did delegates change their minds or not show up? I didn't mean or imply there was funny business. I'm just SO tired. I just was wondering if people changed preferences or may be Obama's people did better GOTD (get out the delegates)?

Vince Leibowitz

[ Parent ]
It's possible, but it's not that small, and (0.00 / 0)
it would be really odd for THAT many delegates not to show.

[ Parent ]
We'll try to look into that (0.00 / 0)
It did have a surprisingly big change

[ Parent ]
Damn el paso knocked obama down 3 percentage points alone... (0.00 / 0)

I love you too (0.00 / 0)
any questions about EP?

[ Parent ]
What happened? (0.00 / 0)
Obama delegates not show up in El Paso?  Or were their credentials challenged?

[ Parent ]
You might not like my answer. (1.00 / 5)
We simply stopped the rampant attempts at caucus theft the BHO people tried. It was so bad, I have never even seen a Republican campaign stoop so low. I am certain that any honest Dem who saw what I saw would walk from the BHO campaign. It is absurd that the press has not looked at this.

...I typed a lengthy post, but truncated it down to this. The blogosphere is no longer an objective ally of the truth.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm...what "press"? (0.00 / 0)
I rad the El PAso Times this morning. The caucus report was about on par with other reports around the state.

But before anyone could actually vote, several problems had to be resolved:
# The long lines at the entrance caused party officials to extend registration for an extra hour so delegates and alternates could check in.
# Several precincts had to re-caucus because they didn't do it properly March 4.
# Every voter who registered as a delegate or alternate first had to be certified as eligible, a process that took longer than expected.


[ Parent ]
The press has failed to investigate (1.00 / 3)
the dozens of cases of attempted fraud I helped investigate.

I'll relate one example of many. I was an area captain, and at-large coordinator for many of El Paso's precincts. Few people had a better overview than I did.

In one of my precincts, BHO people seized control of the majority-Hispanic pro-HRC precinct convention, and did not hold a legal election of officers. They ordered my precinct captain, an older Hispanic woman, to sit in a corner while they fabricated and called in more BHO delegates than the total number allowed for the precinct. (Hey reporters, this is in the public record. Please do your job). My own attempts at cell phone diplomacy failed, and these criminals even refused to talk to the admirable BHO organizer I was paired with that evening.

There were a number of ethical BHO organizers on the ground, like the one I was paired with, but our records suggest that about 20% of all BHO organizers were casually willing to break the law. Some, like the above, seem to me to belong in jail.

Like I said, I have never even seen this kind of behavior from Republicans.

[ Parent ]
that's a rather hefty charge (3.00 / 1)
if you have a shred of credibility, you'd name names and publish things publically... otherwise you're chatter on the internet...

PS: in senate district 13 in Harris County on Primary Day, the election judge of precinct 30 was seen paying voters openly to vote for Clinton (crackheads etc), threatened to send the Obama election attorney to jail, and faked the primary as much as he could.  

Then when the Senate District 13 convention convened yesterday, there was found to be shenanigans on the credentials committee as two "obama" supporters turned out to be fake and were infact publically clinton, leading to an unfairly unbalanced credentials committee that then attempted to disqualify 100's of Obama delegates from SD13 (where hillary made threshold with 16.1% barely.   These types of activites are done by supporters with public responsibility.

What you're talking about sounds to be a rogue overzealous supporter...  your charge that the organizers are willing to do illegal activities amounts to public slander and if you'd like to give me a list of names with proof, with your name, then we can discuss law suits....

Otherwise John, Shut your fucking Pie Hole. Fucked up shit happens on both sides, and your cowardice to voice this on a blog is typical...  but you cross the line when you implicate the official campaign.

[ Parent ]
I would be happy to review this (0.00 / 0)
with reporters. As I said, this allegation can already be found in the records.

But thanks for the advice.

[ Parent ]
BTW (0.00 / 0)
one of those "precincts [that] had to re-caucus because they didn't do it properly March 4," was the one I just mentioned. Funny how the press can make fraud sound so innocuous.

[ Parent ]
Dallas... (5.00 / 1)
I just saw on television a live report form a Dallas SD convention that said they expect it to go on until midnight. Of course, the reporter failed to say which one it was. Any ideas?

Thanks, Phil, for reporting the Wood County results I sent in. I was Credentials Chair in WC and believe me, I've got stories to tell. Needless to say, it was a long day (2 p.m. until 9 p.m., people got there at 1, I was at a Clinton delegate reception at 11) but it was a wonderful time.

It was a wonderful exercise in democracy, and our county chair, Dr. Charles Thompson, our entire Credentials, Rules and Resolutions Committee, and our permanent secretary, Sarah Bailey King, all get major props for good work.

I was at the podium much of the convention as a lot of questions were referred to me, so I'm pretty hoarse right now.  

Vince Leibowitz

Probably SD 23 (0.00 / 0)
Southern Dallas County, Royce West's district.  Sounds like it was really chaotic down there.

[ Parent ]
Any idea (0.00 / 0)

...whether Texas officials will call it a night at some point and go to bed, or will they (and we) keep updating until 2, 3, 4, 5 a.m. Central?

Check those Harris SD15 numbers... (0.00 / 0)
...I could have sworn the final tally when it was over was 158 Obama, 59 Hillary.  Then again, Ken Yarborough just wanted to leave at that point, so who knows.

We'll check everything tomorrow... (0.00 / 0)
Pretty sure we got those right, as we've been double-checking. But some of the larger counties have "at-large" adjustments that weren't reported until long after most folks met.

We're going to call County Chairs tomorrow to verify, just to double-check. That's why we haven't projected anything yet (as we promised -- just reporting tonight).

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Well... (0.00 / 0)
...I was there for that final adjustment.  And that's the final count we all voted on (unless the "real" final adjustments were being made after the end of the convention for old time's sake.)

See ya in Austin (hopefully you can escape Yankeeland for the hooplah this summer).

[ Parent ]
No more spreadsheet updates? (0.00 / 0)
Is is just the blog not being updated, or is the spreadsheet frozen for the night also?

2008 Democratic Convention Watch

The spreadsheet as well (0.00 / 0)
If I'm around for a little longer, I might update the sheet (but not the front page of BOR).  

[ Parent ]
SD 13 (0.00 / 0)
I guess you guys didn't have anyone in SD13 in Houston, because your copy had basically no reaction to Obama's biggest win.  Your spreadsheet shows Obama got 256 of its 341 delegates (2d highest total delegates after Travis County). That's 80% Obama. This is a good site but you guys are a little Travis-centric.  Did you know the 'Horns are playing in Houston today?  

WAY TO GO SD13!!!!! (0.00 / 0)
Congrats on the great victory for Obama!!!!!!

Doing My Part For The Left,Left Of The Rainbow

[ Parent ]
Hmm (0.00 / 0)
We actually mentioned the large win when we reported it -- read through our entire site. We aren't "spinning" anything, just reporting.

And yes, I grew up in Austin, TX all my life -- and here's hoping the Houston crowd helps send my team to San Antonio!

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Thanks! (5.00 / 1)
Awesome job people; from someone on the other side of the Atlantic, I'm immensely grateful for all your efforts, and just wish I could donate to your PAC (am not a citizen).

Couple of updates I found (3.00 / 1)
So diggin around this morning I found a couple of more county results.

via the BarackObama web site...
I found in the comments that:

Harris 7 = 119-70 (53 were at large delegates for Clinton)
Tarrant 10 = 66% Obama (should be about 208-104 Obama)

Sunday - That means Clinton would need.. (0.00 / 0)
Almost 82% of the remaining delegates just to erase the Obama lead! I guess the "Operation Chaos" voters did not bother to caucus.


Early Morning bad math! (0.00 / 0)
It was actually 77% of remaining delegates. Either way, It is look really good for Obama.


[ Parent ]
Yes, but.... (0.00 / 0)

She only needs to improve her results by a tiny fraction (0.46%) in order to reduce Obama's take from the Texas caucuses from +9 net pledged delegates to +7. That looks entirely possible.

[ Parent ]
I registered for an account here (3.00 / 1)
just so I could say thank you for what you're doing.  This has been a fantastic effort, and one that puts the traditional media to shame.  As a Michigander and currently disenfranchised voter, I'm enjoying living vicariously through all of you.  Keep up the good work!

Check out my protest blog.

Remember this when you for for state reps (3.00 / 1)
Michigan and Florida voters need to keep this year's primary in mind when they vote for their state offices in the future. State reps were told in no uncertain terms what the consequences would be and they chose to move their primaries anyway.

I know what running a red light gets me -- a big fine, higher insurance rates and possibly an accident. I don't run a clearly red light then complain about the consequences.


[ Parent ]
question (0.00 / 0)
I know what running a red light gets me -- a big fine, higher insurance rates and possibly an accident. I don't run a clearly red light then complain about the consequences.

No one is sympathizing with the DNC. They're sympathizing with the voters. The voters have every right to complain. They were done a huge disservice.

What about when the cop runs the red light?

What happens when 'the power' causes fines and insurance cost to double?

Should 'the people' pay that cost? That is essentially what is happening to the disenfranchised voters in Florida and Michigan.  

[ Parent ]
I agree with MT (0.00 / 0)
FL and MI should demand a recall of their state legislatures and Governors for the disservice done on their behalf. Both states should call for the removal of their State Democratic Party Leadership.

Look - I am sympathetic with the voters. But it was reported all year long in 2007 what was going on in those 2 states by their states' media. To say they didn't know the consequences going in, means they were watching too much American Idol and Wheel of Fortune, and not enough of their local news.

By the rules, they should not be seated. However, I would say that in the spirit of Democracy, they will - it just won't be by the results of the illegitimate primaries in those two states.  

[ Parent ]
confused (3.00 / 1)
How could the voters have stopped the Democratic party from pushing up their primaries?

Do I understand your position correctly?

Are you blaming the voters for not paying enough attention to the media?....then not blaming them for not taking action for stopping them?  

[ Parent ]
close (0.00 / 0)
What I am saying:

Where were the outcries to the state Parties from the voters last year when they were told that their votes wouldn't count because of the state Parties' decisions?

I'm put the blame squarely where it belongs - on the state parties ... they could have figured out a solution to this in 2007. They did not.

However, like I said - where was the outrage BEFORE the primaries? All of this rage and protest after the primary - as if they weren't all informed many times in 2007 that this was going to happen.

[ Parent ]
understood (0.00 / 0)
I agree with you, the blame falls flat in the lap of the state parties. I disagree with anyone that feels the voters should bare a part of this responsibility.  

[ Parent ]
np (0.00 / 0)
I can appreciate your view. And again, I sympathize with the situation the voters are in, but I think their anger is directed at the wrong people.

[ Parent ]
I agree that the voters got hosed.... (0.00 / 0)
I agree the voters got the fuzzy end of the lollipop in all of this. They have their state legislatures to blame. That is who they need to hold accountable.

I also believe that, if all candidates were campaigning in Florida and Michigan (or at least all on the ballot, in the case of Michigan), the outcomes would have been different.

HRC is claiming victory in Michigan when no other major candidate was on the ballot. What's more, 40% of the voters in the Democratic primary voted uncommitted. Basically, knowing their vote didn't count, 40% of the voters came out to vote "not HRC". That means "none of the above" did quite well against a well-known Senator and former first lady.


[ Parent ]
Believe me (2.00 / 1)
There was plenty of outcry.  Our party elders were determined to thwart the process at our expense.  After 2004, the DNC held meetings about which states to move up, and MI was rightly in the mix.  Ultimately they voted for NV and SC.  We lost that one, but Carl Levin and else everyone had a fair hearing.  I know because I watched it on C-Span.  ~: )  

I absolutely do not hold the DNC responsible for this mess, but our state party and those who pushed relentlessly for this thing.  The irony is, if they would have left it alone, we would have had a substantial impact in the primaries.  

What pisses me off the most about all this, and there's a lot, is that HRC is going around claiming victory here when she was essentially the only one on the ballot, and everbody lets her get away with it.      

Check out my protest blog.

[ Parent ]
ME TOO! (3.00 / 1)
I just created this account after seeing your reply about giving THANKS...so...

Philip and the rest of the community helping out....A BIG THANK YOU for this INCREDIBLE effort!!  And to think that, this was all done for free and with all those fast-paced updates all through the night...AMAZING!

I noticed a ton of sites linking to Burnt Orange and a TON of Democratic Underground folks watching this space religiously...hope we didn't pollute your server too much :D

Thanks once again everyone....
Power to the People

[ Parent ]
I'll join in and thanking the BOR crew (4.00 / 2)
This was the best site of information, that all the major sites were linking too.  

Congratulations to the BOR and thank you for all your incredible hard work!

[ Parent ]
Cameron County (3.00 / 1)
I have just been introduced to the Burnt Orange Report and have three initial comments.  First, it's nice to find another gathering place for yellow dogs (I guess it is fashionable to refer to ourselves as progressives).  Second, I am impressed with the rapid reporting of the convention results so far (keep it up).  Third, Hook 'em Horns (you are excused if you don't update convention results again until after the Texas-Memphis game today).

I sent in some corrected results from Cameron County late last night -- the posted results on the spreadsheet are slightly off.  The final results from the convention after the at-large selections were 54 Clinton delegates (all from the precinct and grouping caucuses) and 26 Obama delegates (4 from the caucuses and 22 from the at-large selections by the nominations committee). The convention split (based on sign-in sheets and credentials committee report) was 63% for Clinton, 31% for Obama, and 6% uncommitted.

Something wrong with the spreadsheet? (0.00 / 0)

The last couple of updates have miscalculated the delegate percentages. In Sunday morning's first update, 6,242 รท 7,649 is 81.61%, not 81.42%. Is there something wrong on your spreadsheet? Or some other kind of typo?

I should add (3.00 / 1)

That I made a huge number of typos on my DKos thread trying to follow along with, and analyze, your results.

Thanks, Burnt Orange Report!

[ Parent ]
Leon numbers? (0.00 / 0)

The Leon results are not very consistent with the March 4 results, in fact they are reversed.  Is this the actual result, or possibly a typo?

[ Parent ]
That is how (0.00 / 0)
the County Chair has reported it. There still could have been a mistake, however.

[ Parent ]
Reporting in from Austin County (0.00 / 0)
Our convention ran as smooth as silk!

We are sending 6 Delegates for Senator Obama and 2 Delegates for Senator Clinton to the State Convention.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

What's up with Dimmit county? (2.00 / 1)
According to the spreadsheet, Dimmit county has 5 state delegates. But the results show 1 delegate for Clinton and 0 delegate for Obama. What happened to the other 4 delegates?

Good call (0.00 / 0)
Don't know. Took it off.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
superdelegates (0.00 / 0)
I don't understand the comment in the diary "at least 4% of the remaining delegates coming from the "state Superdelegates."

if there are 250 or so outstanding superdelegates, and there are about 1000 total delegates remaining, it seems the superdelegates are about 25% of the total remaining delegates. Do I understand this correctly?

2008 Democratic Convention Watch

I think it's from the grand total (0.00 / 0)
of: 7649...not of the remaining 1000 or so.

[ Parent ]
Superdelegates are not pledged delegate (0.00 / 0)
I hope they are not adding superdelegates to the raw total used on your front page because by definition they are not pledged delegates.

Otherwise it will comparing apples and oranges.

[ Parent ]
This is what I took this to mean (0.00 / 0)
We're now at 86% of delegates in, with at least 4% of the remaining delegates coming from the "state Superdelegates." The remaining 124 county conventions will only account for 10% of the delegates -- and Collin County, which convened today, will be a significant portion of that. Time to start analyzing the results...

[ Parent ]
Spreadsheet woes? (0.00 / 0)
Um ... the spreadsheet says the total number of delegates counted has gone down somehow. And it doesn't match the front page. Yet, all the big districts have reported. What gives?

What Happened? (0.00 / 0)
What happened to the spreadsheet? It shows that each of them lost close to 600 each.

THANKS (0.00 / 0)
Thanks guys for fixing the spreadsheet... :)

[ Parent ]
Two many delegates shown (0.00 / 0)
Denton and Hardin both show one more delegate between the candidates than they have total in the state delegates column.  Any idea what the right numbers are?

The State is Probably Wrong (0.00 / 0)
For Denton County, almost every precinct was miscalculated for the precinct convention because of redistricting.  Our precincts were all redrawn and renumbered.

For example, I calculated 31 delegates to county for my precinct.  That was what was on the envelope, too.  But the state had us at 20 because it did not account for the combining of 427 with 404.

[ Parent ]
WHAT IS THE EXACT DATE for the D's to know how many points each candidate got?

I went to the caucus weeks ago.

Feels like it is taking forever.

The state convention in June (0.00 / 0)
June 6th the final sign in will commence to allocate the 67 Texas Caucus delegates.

[ Parent ]
Great Work! (0.00 / 0)
I really enjoyed watching all the county results come in last night and today.  I also used this site to check out the vote on primary/caucus night back on the 4th.  

Are you all going to track the state convention results in real time?

Hopefully (4.00 / 2)
That may be trickier, but we'll figure out a way to make that work.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Collin County here... (3.00 / 2)
We have started the convention but we've been waiting hours for the tabulation of the percentages for at-large delegates.  Still waiting.

We are watching a really good Republican movie about how they think and how we should react/teach to them.

We have only got as far as reading the rules.  I'll report back as soon as we get to some significant step.


Great (0.00 / 0)
Feel free to e-mail us directly any updates, in case we miss them in the comments.


Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Will do... (0.00 / 0)
Still watching Republican films ;-)

[ Parent ]
what is taking so long (0.00 / 0)
I don't understand something..a friend of mine is in colin County and at the convention and has been there since 11.  I understand that democracy takes time and you need to give, but he has been sitting around since 3 or 4 doing nothing.  They are not telling him anything and it seems like a big waste of time.

What is going on and why so long.

[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing (0.00 / 0)
I was actually thinking how much it would suck to have Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD) right about now for them. Could you imagine? I don't have ADD but I think after that long of an experience I would probably have it afterwards. I know for sure it would discourage me from taking part in the process the next time around. I think it would actually drive me out of the state....All I can say is thank gawd I don't live in Texas. That isn't meant to be offensive to you Texans, I just can't believe that what seems like should be a few hour process that takes 8+ hours to do is a little....er a lot ridiculous.

[ Parent ]
We were told by the Texas Democratic Convention people... (0.00 / 0)
that we are one of the best conventions and here we still sit.

It is terrible and can't go on.  I hope everyone stays just to vote for the resolution to get rid of the darn caucus and conventions.  There has to be a better way to do this.

www.nas.org is one answer although I would rather not have geographical areas.  I would like a toss in the hat and 5 states get pulled, and so on.  That way every election we'd have different states going first.

A work in progress and people really need to start working on it.

Okay, they have just called all delegates back into the convention.  Maybe we'll start working.

I'll let everyone know.

[ Parent ]
LOL (0.00 / 0)
Good Luck!!!!!!!11

[ Parent ]
please explain (0.00 / 0)
how is states like Iowa and other that have caucus it is not like this. I mean they start at 5 PM and are done in time for the nation to know.

Why is Texas so long?

Just looking for answers.

[ Parent ]
We have more people n/t (0.00 / 0)

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Maybe because... (0.00 / 0)
The population of the entire state of Iowa could fit in Harris County (Houston).

We go by county which means a lot larger population.

Collin County: 698,851
Texas: 23,507,783

Dallas County: 2,345,815
Harris County: 3,886,207 (Houston)

Population of Iowa 2005:  2,862,541

[ Parent ]
Great points (0.00 / 0)
I am tired tonight and that is the very obvious and right answer.  makes sense.

Just frustrated...and I am sure the one there are even more frustrated.

[ Parent ]
Population, for one thing... (0.00 / 0)
Iowa has a population of about 3 million. Texas is in the neighborhood of 24 million.

My local precinct caucus had well over 600 people (probably closer to 1000), sending 69 delegates to the county convention. My county had about 7 THOUSAND delegates from precinct caucuses.

[ Parent ]
Minor Analysis of Results (0.00 / 0)
I thought I'd share some numbers regarding the partial results, and some projections based on the partial March 4 precinct results:

In counties that have reported, actual results show the following total change from projections based on March 4 reported results:
 Obama +75,  Clinton -22, Uncommitted +3

Note the change is net positive, because some counties did not report any March 4 results, and my projections for those counties were zeroes.  Not counting those zero projections, the changes are"
 Obama +56,  Clinton -62, Uncommitted +3

If I add my projections from March 4 numbers for counties that have not reported to the county convention numbers that have been reported, I get:
 Obama 3985, Clinton 3203, Uncommitted 3  (without superdeleagtes)

This does not include any results for 43 counties that have not reported any results from either precinct or county conventions.   Those counties have 113 total state delegates.  They are all small; the largest is 16 delegates.  They would seem likely to be predominantly Clinton territory.

This is based on the county results available here around 7:20 CDT.

Results (0.00 / 0)
This is based on the 9:00 pm Sunday posting:

If Clinton won all of the remaining delegates (which, let's say, is highly unlikely) she would win 51.35% of the delegates.  Though this may overstate the obvious Obama is assured of winning the the highest numbers of delegates in Texas.

I appreciate the analysis from Colorado Bob and look forward to seeing more in the upcoming days (or whenever all are the results are in, whichever comes first).  

[ Parent ]
Tentative National Convention Numbers (0.00 / 0)
Based on current results (which match the incomplete results from the precinct caucuses), Obama would get 24 of the 42 at-large delegates and 14 of the 25 PLEOs (for a total of 38-29 from the convention portion of the delegation).

Assuming worse case scenario for Obama (only 120 from Collins, Guadulupe and Hunt Counties, none from the remaining counties, and only 100 of the 280 undeclared superdelegates), Obama would have 3949 delegates at the State Convention.  That number would give him 22 of the at-large delegates and 13 of the PLEO for a total margin of 35-32.  

Assuming worst case scenario for Clinton (Obama getting 150 from Collins, Guadulupe, and Hunt Counties, 80 from the remaining counties, and 200 from the undeclared super delegates), the extra 180 delegates would only give him 1 extra at-large delegate and one extra PLEO.

[ Parent ]
Hardin And Denton SD 9 Wrong (0.00 / 0)
Hardin and Denton's totals don't add up.

The Clinton + Obama total in each county is 1 greater than the listed total.
20 + 42 doesn't equal 61
9 + 4 doesn't equal 12
One of the three numbers in each line needs to be fixed (not sure if it's the candidate numbers or the total).

Thanks for all the hard work!

we're aware of this (0.00 / 0)
There are a couple that are over and about 4 that are under but all are off by no more than 2 delegates and taken together, mostly a wash. We're looking for people in those counties to reconfirm the exact numbers.

[ Parent ]
37-30 delegates from caucuses, Obama up 3 in Texas (0.00 / 0)
With these percentages, Hillary has 29.8 delegates, and Obama 37.2.  Assuming these percentages hold, that'll mean 37-30 delegates and a 7 delegate.  This means Obama won Texas!

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

Final Delegate count (0.00 / 0)
With the Collin county results counted, Obama's right 37.43. I don't think there are enough outstanding votes in East Texas where he's going to win by more than 55-45 to offset West and South Texas. So it's almost certainly 37-30 if everyone shows up to the state convention. To get to 37-31, Clinton would have to win the remaining counties 55-45. So, 37-30 it is.

Is Collin County in? nt (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I have given prelimaries... (0.00 / 0)
We are doing the caucus RIGHT NOW!!!

[ Parent ]
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! (0.00 / 0)
And how long has everyone been there? I would be pissed if I was there.

[ Parent ]
It looks like... (0.00 / 0)
The final tally won't be in until later in the morning.  I am staying until the end but the last count was possibly 5 more hours.

[ Parent ]
OMG (0.00 / 0)
HOLY SH*T! What a discouraging process.  Thank you for hangin' in there.

[ Parent ]
Well, we sent the final report at 7:10am this morning... (0.00 / 0)
did we get the prize for longest ;-)

or most screwed up!

[ Parent ]
To change (3.00 / 1)
To get the margin to 38-29, Obama would have to bring his percentage to 56.7164% of the vote, or 4348 delegates for him, which would require he get 59.4% of the remaining delegates

For it to go to 36-31, Clinton would have to bring the margin to 47.0149%, or 3605 delegates for her, which would require she get 65.3% of the remaining delegates.

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

Changing delegate counts. (0.00 / 0)
You need to remember that there are two sets of delegates being elected at the state convention -- 25 PLEOs and 42 at-larges. The numbers need to be run separately for each set of delegates.


50.001% gets you 13 PLEOs and 21 at-large.

51.2% gets you 13 PLEOS and 22 at-large.

53.6% gets you 13 PLEOs and 23 at-large.

54.001% gets you 14 PLEOs and 23 at-large.

56.0% gets you 14 PLEOs and 24 at-large.

58.001% gets you 15 PLEOs and 24 at-large.

58.4% gets you 15 PLEOs and 25 at-large.

[ Parent ]
Why do these take so long? Can we change it? (3.00 / 2)
First, know I support caucuses.  But the Rules require a lot of things that could be streamlined.   Also, every county does their credentialing diffently which can cause a LOT of bizarre results and organizational chaos if not done correctly.

The best analogy I've come up with is that the Rules make this like a baseball game.

You can't do inning two without completing inning one.
You can't do inning seven without completing inning seven.

There is no way to know if the first inning will go seemless and fast, or it will meltdown and take forever.
Three pop flies, and you're over.  Ten walks and you're there forever.

Much of this could be done in a simpler way if we think ahead for 2010 and 2012.   The State Party could build registration systems online that all the counties could use...and ticketing systems to verify entrance.  Just my off the top of my head idea, for one.  This was my 19th County Convention, so I've seen it all.   And I also can predict a convention train wreck before it's derailing.   Leaving these complex things to the last minute and volunteers (I love them) making up organization systems on the fly is ludicrous.

We should just create a system that works, give access to all counties to use it, and we'd not only have better conventions, but we wouldn't be reduntantly entering data over and over and over (as I sit here volunteering and typing up the Travis County State delegation).

I would think.... (0.00 / 0)
I would think credentialing could somehow be done ahead of time.

Why not have the caucus system signin done on a computer so the results can be gathered more efficiently? Do it much the same way we vote in TX. Check in, sign in, then caucus electronically. Then have the program determine number of delegates, alternates, etc.  


[ Parent ]
YES! (0.00 / 0)
You'd think in the computer age, and that we use thumb prints at license registration that something could be done to speed things up and verify.

We've been talking about it all night but it will be a long process to fix.

[ Parent ]
Good work (0.00 / 0)
Take the rest of the night off!

Wow (0.00 / 0)
This has turned out to be a real nail bitter.  The delegate split could be either 38-29 or 37-30.

Do all the the state super delegates have to indicate who they support by a certain date?  Or are they free to change their minds up until the state convention?  Kind of like the national super delegates.  Because it looks like the 276 remaining state super delegates who haven't committed to either candidate yet, according to the spread sheet, could end up being the deciding factor on whether we see a 38-29 split or a 37-30 split.

Everybody is free to change, (0.00 / 0)
not just the state superdelegates. The results of the last 10 primaries and how the candidates behave will influence a lot of state superdelegates, and a few currently pledged delegates, too.  

[ Parent ]
it's more bizarre than that (0.00 / 0)
Remember, ALL of these delegates could change their vote at the state convention. There is nothing binding them and indeed a number of Clinton delegates switched sides at the Travis County convention Saturday. Not a ton, but there were a few. All of the 'pledged' 7000+ delegates to state can vote again for whomever when they sign in on June 6th. Same thing with the "state supers".

Now, the difference between the two is that the pledged folks actually are activists and much less likely to switch at this level because these are the die hards. The "state supers" (county chairs, SDEC, & DNC) are totally opposite and in many cases stay completely neutral because of their official positions and having to heal rifts in their own counties. They are basically just extra votes (and were made automatic because they would otherwise take up that may seats away from average folks because they would all want to run for delegate to the state convention anyways and would likely win).  

[ Parent ]
Results that look highly suspicious: (0.00 / 0)
Limestone, Guadalupe, Hutchinson, Falls, and Cherokee results look very suspicious to me.  Obama had massive leads in those counties' caucuses on election night.  Any chance the numbers were transposed or something?

[ Parent ]
Good call (0.00 / 0)
Some of those were backwards. Fixing now...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
I was wondering why the counts changed internally (0.00 / 0)
That would explain it. Thanks!

[ Parent ]
Numbers (0.00 / 0)
Some numbers:

4: The number of delegates Senator Obama trails Senator Clinton by after she took a 65-61 from the March 4 Texas primary.
36: The number of delegates (out of 67) Obama needs from the precinct/county/state convention to leave Texas with more delegates. 61 + 36 > 65 + (67-36)
52.99%: The percentage of state delegates Obama needs to get those 36 delegates with rounding. 35.5001/67 = 52.99%
4059: The number of state delegates (out of 7660) Obama needs in order to achieve this percentage. 7660x52.99% = 4059
3959: The number of state delegates Obama currently has from county conventions as of 8 p.m., March 31
100: The number of state delegates Obama currently Obama lacks to reach this number as of 8 p.m., March 31
206: The number of state delegates still available from county conventions
70: The number of those 206 Obama is likely to receive based on how he's done in other counties of similar size. Of the 60 smallest counties that have reported so far, Senator Obama has received about 32% of the delegates. 206x32% = 70

The conclusion?

It is very likely that the winner of Texas will be decided by...


...the state super delegates! :)

Re:Numbers (3.00 / 1)
While your bottom line is close to being correct, you are making the mistake of using 67 as the multiplier.  For most situations, using 67 will give you the correct answer, but it's not accurate for all situations.

Under national party and state party rules (DSP Part III, Section D.4&5), there are two separate delegate elections at the state convention.

One of the elections is for pledged PLEOs.  These are 25 delegate slots set aside for party leaders (legislators, mayors, county officials, etc.).  As such, the key numbers for this group is every 4%

Delegate allocation for the PLEOs is as follows:

15% = 4  
18.0001% = 5
22.0001% =6 etc.

In the range that is likely

46.0001% = 12 (approximately 3524 state delegates)
50.0001% = 13 (approximately 3831 state delegates)
54.0001% = 14  (approximately 4137 state delegates)
58.0001% = 15 (approximately 4443 state delegates)

The other delegate allocation is 42 at-large.  That delegate total flips at approximately every 2.39%.

If you are looking at final numbers for Obama between 50 and 60%, the key numbers are as follows:

48.81% = 21 (approximately 3739 state delegates)
51.191% = 22 (approximatley 3922 state delegates)
53.572% = 23 (approximately 4104 state delegates)
55.953% = 24 (approximately 4286 state delegates)
58.334% = 25 (approximately 4468 state delegates)

Given the current totals, Obama could mathematically get to 40 delegates from the two parts of the convention, but very unlikely.  On the other hand, he is already guaranteed 35.  To get to 36, he needs approximately 117 delegates.

[ Parent ]
Re:Numbers (0.00 / 0)
Very good point!

So to win the delegate count and get 36 delegates, he needs 23 of the at-large and 13 of the PLEOs, or as you said at least 53.57% and not 52.99% as I said.

The size of the ranges between thresholds is pretty interesting:

53.57% of the state delegates (not 52.99%) => 36 national delegates
54.01%(not 54.48%) => 37
55.95% (not 55.97%) => 38
58.01% (not 57.46%) => 39
58.33% (not 58.96%) => 40

Visually, it would look something like this:

My goodness, math is hot...

[ Parent ]
Add-on delegates (0.00 / 0)
I have not seen any discussion of how the 3 "Add-on" delegates are selected.  These are unpledged delegates, but they are typically chosen based on primary or convention results.  The Texas delegate selection plan says they are chosen at the convention, and nominated by the convention's "Committee to Nominate At-Large Delegates".  There is no mention of what that committee has to consider; it sounds like the convention has no choice but to endorse the committee's nominations.

That Committee has 34 members, one member to be elected by each Senate District Caucus and three members to be appointed by the Permanent Convention Chair.  This Committee will clearly be pro-Obama (Obama will have the majority of delegates in at least 18 of the 31 Senate Districts, and the chair will be elected by the convention, which will have an Obama majority).

I presume this means the convention will name either 3 Obama add-ons, or 2 Obama and 1 Clinton add-ons (they will be officially unpledged).

Re: Add-on delegates (0.00 / 0)
In looking at the numbers, I was surprised by how close 3 of the Senate Districts are (SD 3, 22, and 24 are all within 9 delegates), 2 for Clinton, 1 for Obama.  But that doesn't seem like it will matter.  Note that Obama currently leads 19 SDs, including SD24 by 4 votes.  I don't know whether the supers caucus with their SDs.  I would assume they can, but I don't  expect that will greatly impact this nominating committee.

[ Parent ]
Add-ons (0.00 / 0)
It's tough to tell because the add-ons are used to give delegate slots to people who should be delegates without taking them away from the newcomers.

I just got back from the State Committee Meeting in Missouri (which under the Missouri Delegate Selection Plan chooses the unpledged add-ons and the Pledged PLEOs).  Despite Clinton having a slim majority of the members in attendance, we proceeded to elect as the unpledged add-ons our Attorney General (who will be our candidate for Governor) and our other state-wide official (even though she had endorsed Obama last July).

I would think that the nomiations committee for the Texas Democrats would want to make your candidate for U.S. Senator one of the unpledged add-ons.  Beyond that, the Texas folks would have a better idea than I would of anyone who "has" to be given an add-on spot.  If there isn't anyone else, they might give both of the remaining 2 to Obama or split it 1-1.

[ Parent ]
El Paso? (0.00 / 0)
I have a question to the second result of El Paso:

It's a 157-18 split...but this would be only ~10% for Obama.

What about the 15% threshold?

Answer (0.00 / 0)
The 15% threshold only applies to the allocation of at large delegates. A campaign can win delegates from the precincts if there are clumps of support (think UTEP or the like). Those cannot be taken away from a candidate even if they are below 15% threshold for the entire convention.  

[ Parent ]
No Problem (0.00 / 0)
A legitimate question!

[ Parent ]
Fort Bend County / SD 18 (0.00 / 0)

Total delegate votes cast: 630

For Barack Obama: 414

For Hillary Clinton: 215 "

You reported a 48-15 win for Obama. Shouldn't it be 41-22?

Obama    ~65,82%  * 63 delegates = 41,46
Clinton  ~34,18%  * 63 delegates = 21,53

Not necessarily, due to precinct gatherings (0.00 / 0)
See Article IV, sections C.10.(c) and (d) here:


"[At the county/SD conventions] the precincts or grouped precincts shall caucus and make nominations within their respective caucuses...[and] elect their Delegates"

Thus, the hetero/homogeneity of each candidate's support can be a big factor in determining how many state delegates they will get from the county/SD convention.

Though, I should note, at-large delegates seek to return to the county/SD-wide proportion.

[ Parent ]
Counties with no conventions (0.00 / 0)
Does anyone have a clear idea what happens to the delegate allocation when a county did not hold a convention?  I first assumed that no delegates are allocated, and the total at the state convention is decreased.  But the party rules


and state law


say that "For any county which has no Delegates present in person or by proxy, those votes shall be apportioned based upon the vote of the Senatorial District so that the Senatorial District can vote its full delegate strength."

That sounds somewhat clear.  The mention of proxy is totally unclear to me (in both sources).

The current results have 4 counties where it was verified that no convention was held.  There are 77 others with no results.  I checked the Obama website lists of convention locations and times (the list on the txdems website is gone).  For 43 of those, a time and place are given.  For another 29 (plus the 4 known to have no convention), there is wording that details are not known.  For another 4 there is a statement that there would be no convention.  And for 1 county there was no information at all.  If someone from BOR would like a list of which counties are which, I can provide it.

I also ran some numbers assuming that all 38 counties for which no convention info was given would send no delegates, and that the total of these within each SD would be apportioned in the same way as the current total for that SD.  That would yield 57 for Clinton and 36 for Obama.

mmh... (0.00 / 0)
Does that mean that Roberts, Hudspeth, Hansford and Armstrong will vote 1-0 Clinton, because she has won SDs 19, 28, and 31?

[ Parent ]
maybe... plus a correction (0.00 / 0)
That is one interpretation of the rule - that each county without representation would have its votes divided proportionally according to the SD allocation (call that interpretation A).   The interpretation I chose above (call it B) was that the total of all unallocated counties in each SD would be allocated proportionally.  So SD19 would have 5 such votes split 3-2, SD 28 would have 27 votes split 19-8, and SD 31 would have 11 votes split 7-4.

As a total, interpretation A would give Clinton 58, Obama 9.  Also I found a mistake in the numbers I posted above - interpretation B would give Clinton 42, Obama 25.

Another question is how the superdelegates (mainly the county chairs) from these counties fit into this rule.  If a county chair shows up with no other delegates from the county, does (s)he get to vote the entire county allocation?

Again, I hate to just speculate.  Does anyone actually know how this piece works?

[ Parent ]
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