1:35am (Phillip) - It's 2:25am here. I'm going on 6+ hours straight. I may be signing off soon... 1:10am (Phillip) - Someone asked if I'm just pulling numbers out of my, well, butt. I've been telling you all this all night long: look at the Senate District breakdown chart to see what areas are still out there: TX Presidential Delegate Breakdown by Senate District 1:07am (Phillip) - Some movement towards Obama -- he just picked up a couple delegate seats by splitting a South TX district and tying an East TX district. The numbers aren't done coming in, folks -- and I'm not done writing about them. My question about Clinton's alleged momentum now -- if the New York Knicks lose 11 straight games, then have a good week, has a lot really changed? Aren't they still the New York Knicks? 12:52am (Phillip) - Ohio statewide results. Her lead has dropped to 12% points in Ohio. It looks like Yanez is pulling away, ever so slightly, from Criss in the TX Supreme Court Justice, Place 8 race. BOR reader Eric Roberson is winning going into a run-off in TX-32. Rick Noriega is still barely above 50% in the Tex-Sen race -- let's hope he holds on. I don't have final numbers for Reps. Olvio, Moreno, Escobar, Haggerty, or Macias yet --- though it looks like Haggerty will lose, Macias may win, and the three Dems (Olivo, Escobar, Moreno) could go down. The down-ballot races have been crazy in many cases. Mark Thompson -- a relative unknown in the Railroad Commissioner race -- is sitting at 48% and heading for a runoff. Gene Kelly is doing his normal torture dance. I'm not as willing to say that Larry Joe Doherty beat Dan Grant b/c of voter ineptitude -- I need to see more numbers, but I've always thought Austin-based folks were counting too much for Grant. The only Craddick D to go down, Rep. Kevin Bailey, went down to a largely succesful ground game run by the Armando Walle campaign -- a candidate whose expertise is so welcomed that I almost forgot that Al "don't shake that booty" Edwards is going to be an elected official again (gag). Lots more analysis, but some of that will be for tomorrow. I've tried my best to stay neutral on the numbers tonight. I'm still not as convinced that Senator Clinton has momentum -- as David Gergen said on CNN (why doesn't he talk more -- and yes, I'm biased to professors from my school) -- she probably just stopped his some. We'll see what happens tomorrow. 12:45am (Phillip) - Just went through all the numbers around the state. Still a few House races that are too close to call, that could be telling in the Speaker's race. CNN reported earlier today that they expected that 60% of votes would be early, and 40% would be electon day. So...if 25% of precints are still to be reported, that means that we're still waiting on (.25)(.4)=(.1) -- 10% of precincts to vote. And, presumably, most of these precincts are going to break large for Obama. Problem is, he's now down 104,000 total votes, and to make up that margin, he'd need about 2:1 break on 300,000 votes that were still out there. Don't see that happening. But I do bet that, by morning, he's cut that 104,000 lead significantly (Clinton's lead is decreasing in Ohio as I type). As has been true for this entire primary season -- timing is everything. 12:20am (Phillip) - Caucuses are coming in now. Obama leading (no surprise). Nothing new in the TX races, otherwise. 11:56pm (Phillip) - Why I'm hesitant about the numbers: (1) Harris County had a precinct that was still voting a half hour ago. There were several thousand voters in one spot. There were also some precincts in Harris County where, possibly, no votes were counted -- the disk was lost or damanged, which means 10,000+ votes haven't been counted. (These are all from my friend who is watching TV in Houston and telling me what's going on). I'd also like to remind everyone what I wrote several weeks ago, in my "How Barack Obama Can Win in Texas" post: Senator Obama could come close to Senator Clinton in the "primary" portion and dominate the "caucus" portion --- the only catch is that those 67 votes that come from the "caucus" system won't be known until June and the Texas Democratic Party Convention. If the expectations are that Senator Clinton will win and perhaps even dominate in Texas, then even Senator Obama finishing close on Election Day -- with an understanding that he will do well in the future caucuses -- could be enough to count as a win for Senator Obama.
So what's happened tonight? I'm still not convinced TX is over, but if it is, it's still really, really close (they're going to be counting for 3 more hours out there, folks). Either way, he has gone from (1) Clinton dominating TX to (2) Obama almost (and maybe still) splitting/winning the popular vote, and he's still winning the caucus system. The only thing that's changed, then, is how we've defined a "win" in Texas. 11:52pm (Phillip) - CNN, too. I haven't looked at county numbers for about an hour. Let me go take a look, I'll be back in about 10 minutes. 11:50pm (Phillip) - MSNBC has called the race for Texas. Umm..OK.. 11:20pm (Phillip) - Big update. Pay attention: - Obama/Clinton still neck and neck.
- It looks like we may lose House Dems Escobar and Moreno to challengers in their primaries that were backed by conservative consultants. Would these candidates promise not tu support Craddick?
- Armando Walle is a new State Rep. -- defeating Rep. Kevin Bailey. One Craddick D lost, though it looks like all the others will hang on, unless the final boxes in South Texas prove very unkind for Reps. Flores and Pena.
- Rep. Dora Olivo is neck and neck with challenger Ron Reynolds. Olivo, who has never voted for Craddick, took some Craddick money in the final days. Interesting to see what shakes out from this race.
- Yanez/Criss is still neck and neck.
- Mark Thompson is definitely heading into a runoff for RR Commissioner, possibly against Dale Henry (according to current numbers).
- Republican Craddick supporter Nathan Macias is hanging on by the skin of his teeth in his TX House race.
- Larry Joe Doherty is going to win TX-10, barring some incredible final boxes
- Dracula Gibbs is leading going into the runoff in the Republican primary, TX-22.
11:00pm (Phillip) - "Epic political contest." I wonder if the CNN anchors think that the numbers going up for each candidate are like punches. All it is is reporting. All it is is patience. Basically, we're having to wait and watch the paint dry. I'm going to make a sandwich. If you aren't already, visit this link to be smarter than everyone on TV not named John King: TX Presidential Delegate Breakdown by Senate District 10:50pm (Phillip) - So what happens when Obama wins TX? Does the media forget that if he won TX, the race was going to be over?
10:40pm (Phillip) - Clinton just gave an incredible speech. Made her case very, very well. Obama is beginning... 10:21pm (Phillip) - Clinton speaking in Ohio. She came out with about 20 terrific lines. Supporters chanting "yes we will." Impressive. Makes an incredible case for her candiacy to stay alive. Moving goalposts, moving the media. If you can't meet your own expectations, change them. Well done in Ohio. Let's stay up and see what happens in TX. 10:20pm (Phillip) - Just updated all the numbers, so scroll down below. Right now, Noriega still hovering around 50%. Larry Joe Doherty looks like he may win handily over Dan Grant. Borris Miles got trounced by Al Edwards. Yanez/Criss is still a coin flip. Two great Dems -- Escobar and Moreno -- may get beat by Craddick candidates, but two Craddick D's, Pena and Flores, are still neck and neck. Craddick Republican Nathan Macias is losing, but Craddick Republican Dee Margo is winning. 10:02pm (Phillip) - I'm amazed that there are announcers calling this night for Clinton already -- just as I'm amazed those were calling the night for Obama earlier. P-A-T-I-E-N-C-E. 9:56pm (Phillip) - CNN calls Ohio for Clinton. Interesting -- based on what Buckeye State Blog (the BOR of Ohio) said this 20 minutes ago: blah blah blah...Clinton's up 140k in Ohio. Yea. I get it. But we've got 0% in Hamilton County, 0% in Montgomery County, next to nothing in Toledo, and - of course - o% in Cuyahoga County. So hold your horses before you start calling this either way. And looks like Cuyahoga County won't be reporting till about 4:30am. I know - great news.
9:53pm (Phillip) - John King. God bless him. Thank you for actually looking at who is voting. 9:45pm (Phillip) - CNN is a bunch of idiots. They're like kids looking at stars and saying, "wow, those are stars - I wonder where the light switch is to turn them on." They fundamentally don't understand Texas. The fact is, we're finally getting boxes coming in -- and they are coming in randomly. And whichever blowhard just called this a disgrace can take a cattle prod up his rear end. Basically, CNN can't handle waiting. If you wait -- and yes, it will be serveral more hours -- you'll see what's going on. Senator Clinton's boxes are coming in in South Texas, and Obama is still neck and neck. Wait until the urban areas start reporting... Meanwhile, I just updated all the posts -- so scroll down the page (if you can). Look at those for the latest numbers. 9:10pm (Phillip) - Yes. Server crashed. We're on it -- doing the best we can. I may be a little slow updating the official posts as we let it breathe some new life and try some things, so here's the latest: - Some South TX boxes just came in, which is why we just saw Clinton's numbers jump up.
- Nothing new in TX House races, really.
- In statewide races, Noriega is still flirting with the 50%, Larry Joe Doherty is beating Dan Grant, Shelly Sekula-Gibbs is winning the cluster-race in TX-22.
8:49pm (Phillip) - Sorry we are running a little slow. HUGE traffic, plus I'm updating about 8 threads at a time. Try to refresh every 15 minutes or so -- that's about how often the new numbers are all updated. But please, keep reading. And donate to TexBlog Pac while you wait! 8:46pm (Phillip) - If HRC loses Texas, it's over. 8:45pm (Phillip) - Forgot to mention the Travis County DA race -- Lehmberg (Ronnie Earle endorsed) has 39% at early vote. Montford -- who came under criticism for taking a lot of lobbyist money -- is in second at 29%. Look for a runoff between those two In statewide races, Mark Thompson is close to winning the RR Commissioner race outright -- over Art Hall and Dale Henry. Yanez/Criss is still a toss-up. No big news in State House races (about to make another run through the numbers -- since more are coming in, I may start only updating this post ince every 15 minutes or so. Talk in the comments!) 8:30pm (Phillip) - If you're not already, you can track TX House races here. Literally hundreds upon hundreds of Texans are caucusing tonight. What a beautiful thing. Meanwhile, here in Travis County, Glen Maxey has a strong mountain to climb to overcome the early vote total, while Rep. Dukes does, in fact, look safe 8:21pm (Phillip) - Phil King has a huge early vote total -- he's likely to pull it off. Pena and Flores still neck and neck. Noriega is hovering around 49% -- avoiding a runoff would be terrific. Yanez and Criss are very close. (As the more and more that it looks like Obama is going to win, the more I'm going to focus on TX races -- but the numbers will still be updated). 8:11pm (Phillip) - Obama built too large an early vote lead. HRC isn't looking good in suburban white counties where she was expected to "balance" out, and Obama is winning urban areas by 60%. In State races, two Craddick D's -- Flores and Pena -- are neck and neck in South Texas. 8:04pm (Phillip) - Check that Travis County stuff. Some precints are still voting in Austin. Could take a while (as I said earlier). Oh, and McCain is the nominee. Click that "McCain playlist" ad on the right and see how non-maveric, uber-conservative he actually is. 7:51pm (Phillip) - The Travis County website has State Rep. Dukes (Austin) winning early vote by 2/3. Looks like she's safe. 7:21pm (Phillip) - (Reminder) CNN keeps saying "we don't know where these numbers are." WE DO. TX Presidential Delegate Breakdown by Senate District. As a note -- those numbers are based on current totals, so they'll be flexible all night long. 7:50pm (Phillip) - Most of the precints in, so far, aren't in the major urban areas. There are some State House races with small turnout numbers, but none in the major metro areas. I'm not immediately re-posting every new number (I'm trying to watch about 50 races tonight), but when there's a significant jump in numbers, you'll know. Keep scrolling down for my updates... 7:44pm (Phillip) - In statewide news, Susan Criss and Linda Yanez are neck and neck. Sam Houston is doing well. And longtime BOR reader Eric Roberson is winning his race early in CD-32. 7:40pm (Phillip) - I have no idea where CNN is getting their numbers. They aren't the Secretary of State numbers, that's for sure, so I'm not going to worry about it too much. And BTW, for all those NOT interested in the presidential race, no TX House races have any real numbers yet. Probably in about 20-30 minutes... 7:31pm (Phillip) - One precinct in Houston where my best friend votes had 11 people at the precinct last year. Well over 500 now. Wow. 7:13pm (Phillip) - I'll update most pages 5-10 minutes or so. Just an FYI. 7:06pm (Phillip) - Numbers start coming in. Be sure to scroll down the page -- "leaders" are highlighted in orange. (You're impressed, right? Have I told you how much Adam rocks?!) 7:02pm (Phillip) - CNN just did an analysis where Clinton wins each state tonight 55-45, and each state going forward 60-40, and she is still just marginally ahead in the delegate county. They did the same thing with Obama, and he gets within a handful of delegates of being the nominee -- a gap that would close with the Superdelegates. Just thought I'd share. Kos says that if they focus on math, then Clinton's "momentum" won't work. Live media watching... 6:57pm (Phillip) - Reports of vote stealing in Third Ward in Houston. 6:47pm (Matt) - Expect long delays on reporting early vote numbers. Reports on the ground in Travis County is that there are still long lines in many precincts in the major urban areas -- around the stage. (Matt says) that early vote numbers can't be released while people are still in line. So don't expect early vote totals immediately at the 7:00pm hour...could be a while for those early numbers. 6:46pm (Phillip) - Obama wins Vermont. The delegate spread in VT may give Obama enough of a spread to offset losses elsewhere, according to some analysists. 6:42pm (Phillip) - Here's how tonight will work. All the results are updated as often as possible in the threads below. This post (which will be updated throughout the night) will have the latest news (when precincts close, reports from the ground, campaigns that are conceding, etc.). When a new item comes in, this will get bumped with the new update. I'll probably keep the 5-7 latest "news stories" above the fold, with the rest of the results below the fold. See the above example. 6:41pm (Phillip) - Some of these updates will be from Matt, KT, and others calling and/or e-mailing me. So when you see their name next to the update, that means its their reporting. 6:35pm (Phillip) - If any of our numbers in the results thread look screwy, let us know. 6:25pm (Phillip) - I am excited about the primary -- but I'll be relieved when this is over. I'm already getting a writer's cramp, and I've barely begun the night. Somebody make sure that "blogger's writers cramp" is covered under whosever universal health care plan we pass. 6:22pm (Phillip) - And we're off! |
